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Minna Padi Aset Manajemen

1

PT Minna Padi Aset Manajemen

April 2007


2

Table of Contents

Investing in Indonesia p. 3Portfolio Strategies p. 19

Finance 22Agriculture 46Infrastructure 62Energy 82Consumption 90Automotive 98Heavy Equipment 102Property 106Transportation 114

MPAM Fund p. 118Agreement Specimen p. 130

3


Investing in Indonesia

Stable Economic Growth– GDP 2006 = 5.50%– GDP 1Q07 (YoY) = 5.6% – IDR appreciation = 8.2% YTD– Inflation 2006 (YTD) = 6.6%– Inflation 2007F = 6.5%

Interest rate– SBI 1 mo = 9.0% (30 March 2007) - room for rate cut – Deposit rate declines faster than loan rate

Easing Monetary Policy

4


more…

Privatization Program– IPO

PT Jasa Marga – Toll RoadPT Indonesia Power – ElectricityPT Wijaya Karya – ConstructionPT Bank Tabungan Negara – BankPT Krakatau Steel – Steel

– Strategic Bank Negara Indonesia

Infrastructure project– Toll road– Power plant

Earning growth – fastest in region


2

5


Indonesia Economic Indicators

Sovereign risk

– USD LT debt• S&P : B, positive outlook• Moody’s : B2, positive outlook• Fitch : BB-, positive outlook

– IDR LT debt• S&P : B+• Moody’s : B2• Fitch : BB-

6


Indonesia Economic Indicators

9.258.759.7512.757.78.31 –mo SBI at year end (%)9,0008,9009,0209,8309,2908,420USD/IDR at year end

7.16.56.617.116.45.1Inflation (%)

OTHERS

297.4295.01292.96277.69245.21230.2Nominal GDP (USD BN)7.06.55.55.66.54.1Real GDP growth (%)

GDP

2008 F2007 F2006200520042003

Source: Bank Indonesia, Central Bureau of statistics, F- MPAM

7


Indonesian Market

Market P/E 2007 F -13.7xAttractive P/E

Upgrade rating –positive outlook

Source: F- MPAM

02468

1012141618

HSI STI KLCI PCOMP JCI SET

2007 F

2008 F

SETJCIPCOMPKLCISTIHSIP/E

8.913.012.613.715.416.22008 F9.613.714.415.218182007 F

ThailandIndonesiaPhilippineMalaysiaSingaporeHong Kong

8


more…Credit has been plentiful – Banking SectorLow inflationMacro stabilityMarket Cap: IDR 1.321 Trillion = USD 146 Billion per 30 March 2007First Quarter 2007 Capital Inflow USD 2.4 Billion (USD 362 million in equity)Consensus SBI 8.5% by mid year – demand for Banks and PropertyCommodities price recorded the strongest earning growth –mining & plantations


3

9


more…

0

5

10

15

20

25

ROE (%) 24.1 18.4 16.5 15.2 13.2

JCI SET PCOMP KLCI STI

Highest ROE 2006 in the region

Economic improving

Fund flow from government project

Earnings will be double in 2010

Source: Bloomberg

10


Regional Indices Performance

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2005 2006

SHSZ300JCIHSISTIKLCINIKKEI

KOSPI

1,368.2

16,194.6

906.6

2,337.9

15,101.5

1,164.1

920.9

28 Dec 05

1,434.5

17,224.8

1,088.9

2,963.5

20,001.9

1,805.5

1,979.9

28 Dec 06

55.1JCIIndonesia

32.5HSIHong Kong

26.8STISingapore

20.1KLCIMalaysia

6.4NIKKEIJapan

4.9KOSPISouth Korea

115SHSZ300China

Change (%)CodeCountry

Source: Bloomberg

11


Performance Indexes Asia Pacific

(0.92%)

DowJones

IndiaBSE 30

Hong Kong(HSI)

Japan(N 225)

Taiwan(TWSE)

Korea(KOSPI)

Indonesia(JCI)

Singapore(STI)

Malaysia(KLSE)

Shanghai(SSE)

(5.18%)(0.82%)0.36%0.78%1.26%1.39%8.24%13.69%18.86%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

SSE KLSE STI JCI KOSPI TWSE N 225 HSI Dow BSESource: Bappepam-LK

From 29 Dec 2006 – 30 March 2007

12


more…

2005 – 2006 JCI up 55.1% (2nd best in the region)

Shares are still undervalued

Corporate profits faster than expected

Buy back shares

Supporting the stock market

High profit to reduce default

Dividend payment


4

13


Earning Growth

• Fastest earnings growth in Asia• Corporate earnings for 2006 YE growth at 25.8%

2.14.111.914.115.018.819.119.920.722.8

Hong Kong

SingaporeThailandChinaKoreaIndiaPhilippinesMalaysiaTaiwanIndonesia

Source: F- MPAM

Earning Growth 2007 F

0

5

10

15

20

25

Indonesia Taiwan Malaysia Philippines India Korea China Thailand Singapore Hong Kong

14


Jakarta Index

as of 30 March 2007

15


USD/IDR Exchange Rate

as of 30 March 2007

16


New Regulations• Parliament passed a new regulations to benefit the investors called

Investment Bill– To reduce cost for doing business in Indonesia– To create a series of investments and job creations

Ex: 1. Eliminate Tariffs on capital goods2. Allow investors to invest in 15 key industries including palm oil

processing, food processing, agribusiness, ship building, etc3. Economic partnership agreement between Indonesia and

Japan, which will exempt 90% of Indonesia exports to Japan from tariffs including textiles and footwear

• A Railways regulations– Allow stated-owned companies, regional government companies, private

and others to develop and operate railways• Next plan is to liberalize airport and port ownership


5

17


Government plan

• Investment – lower interest rate & low inflation

• Simple administration for any investments

• Tax reform – competitive tax

• Law enforcement

• Increase security

• Political stability

• Infrastructure project

• Labor prosperity

18


Concerns

• High oil prices

• Global terrorism

• The American current-account deficit

• Small market cap

19


Strategies

CTRA (10), CTRS (8)7Property

ASII (10)8AutomotiveUNTR (10)8Heavy Equipment

INDF (10), KLBF (8)8Consumption

BLTA (10)7Transportation

TLKM (9), ISAT (10), PGAS (10), BNBR (8), TOTL (7)9InfrastructurePTBA (10), MEDC (6)8Energy

AALI (10), LSIP (6), UNSP (8), TBLA (6)9Agriculture

BBRI (10), BBCA (10), BNGA (8), BDMN (8), BNLI (6), BMRI10Finance

Stocks pickScale (1-10)

Sector

Investment Ranking : Scale 1-10 ( weighted) in scale - 10 = top priority, 9 = priority, etc

Scale 1-10 ( weighted) in stocks pick – concerns on market cap & liquidity

20


Equity Rating Key

Recommendation FundamentalTarget Fair Value for 12 months view• BUY : return > 15%• Outperform (OP) ; return 0% – 15%• Under perform (UP) : return (10%) – 0%• SELL : return < (10%)• Discount > 40% from fair value, we highly recommend BUY – fundamental remain unchanged• Bullish Market maximal price 1.1 x Fair Value

Recommendation Technical• Tactical Trading

• Return is calculated when recommend has changed ( + / - )

• Recommendation can be changed anytime depend on the pattern

Up trend Pattern : Ascending Triangle, Flag, Double or Triple bottom, Inverted Shoulder Head Shoulder, Wedge

Downtrend Pattern : Descending Triangle, Double or Triple Top, Shoulder Head Shoulder


6

21


News

• Indonesian Central Bank (BI) make a new regulations for banks — Old rule : clients who has a bad credit in one bank will

get the same treatment in other banks even they do not have a bad credit in other banks

— New rule : clients will get an individuals treatment in each banks depend on the conditions

– Positive : lower NPL on Banks with LDR > 70%

• Banks must be maintained their NPL < 5 % in 2007

22


Finance : Bank BRI – BBRI

As of 30 March 2007

23


Recommendation Fundamental

32.6

27.61

Disc. (%) to

FV

5,050

5,250

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

6,700

6,700

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Focusing on micro

• Strong loan growth expected at 19.5% growth in 2007

• Plan to lend to the toll road and agribusiness sectors

• Concern on single presence policy ( Government Own 57.37%) with

BMRI


24

5,05015,247

157,458136,73620,722

7,0115,01110.641429.72.7

11.218018.24.778

61,458

2007 F

(1.94)13.531.76

(0.80)22.7721.2117.71(0.46)15.320.33

(27.02)(17.03)

0.55(7.61)(3.29)

7.54(1.77)

70.247.91

26.0225.9726.408.88

11.79(9.66)13.96(0.67)

(15.90)(12.33)

13.2923.004.20

(5.80)89.43

5,15013,429

154,725137,84616,878

5,7844,25710.65

35929.63.7

13.5179

18.824.9

72.5362,570

3,02512,437

122,775109,42213,352

5,3123,80811.79

31529.84.4

15.415815.34.7

77.533,030

Share Price (IDR)Net Interest Income (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Interest Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)Non Performing Loan (%)Loan to Deposit Ratio (%)Market Cap (IDR billions)

Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)

Key Income Statement Data

BuyFair Value IDR 6,700


7

25


Recommendation Technical

PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE. TARGET 5,500

BREAK FROM CHANNEL RESITANCE: STABLE 5,600 NEXT TARGET 6,200

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

5,050

5,250

Price

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

(3.80)

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

26


Finance : Bank BCA - BBCA

As of 30 March 2007

27



27.45

26.21

Disc. (%) to

FV

5,100

5,150

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

6,500

6,500

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

SME42%

Corporate41%

Housing8%

Credit Card5%

Etc.4%

Loan Breakdown• BCA plans to move aggressively on

mortgage loan product in 2007 offering a low rate–

mortgage is a low credit risk and the yield is over SBIs

• More room for credit expansion – LDR >40%


28

5,15022,875

197,406175,67721,72910,873

5,2536.4382

26.212.7

10.218020.81.5

45.162,876

2007 F

(0.96)18.0511.6510.6720.2614.6523.80

(13.51)10.72(9.83)

(23.07)(16.73)

9.09(5.83)

(11.76)11.91(0.96)

52.9425.8417.7218.1614.0123.9117.9312.1218.153.26

33.9628.9417.85

2.6(10.52)(3.54)53.04

5,20019,376

176,799158,73018,067

9,4834,243

7.4345

29.073.51

12.25165

22.091.7

40.3063,491

3,40015,397

150,181134,33215,847

7,6533,597

6.6292

28.162.629.5140

21.531.9

41.7841,485


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)




8

29



PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL. NO 3 SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TRENDBREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 3. TARGET 5,450

UP TREND, BREAK CHANNEL RESITANCE 1. TARGET 5,500

Remark

5,150 – 5,250

5,200 – 5,300

Resistance

4,900 – 5,000

4,950 – 5,050

Support

5,100

5,150

Price

CHANNEL

CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

(0.97)

Return

(%)

30-Mar--07

26-Jan-07

Date

30


Finance : Bank Niaga – BNGA

As of 30 March 2007

31



47.29

22.47

Disc. (%) to

FV

740

890

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1,090

1,090

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Strong loan growth expected 24% in 2007

• Focusing on mortgage

• Concern on single presence policy with Lippo Bank

SME42%

Housing12%

Corporate26%

Consumer15%

Credit Card5%

Loan Breakdown


32

7407,015

49,15044,240

4,9101.192

8286.15

7133.78

2.311.2

1215

3.391.8

8,880

2007 F

(19.56)17.245.595.952.5615.9

27.77(0.80)31.48

103.866.48

(34.19)103.38(9.90)31.47

8.2(14.11)

127.1645.2911.9311.0120.7041.4018.4614.81

(10)(21.35)

92.85252.74(35.65)(3.42)

(41.49)(0.66)

132.59

9206,014

46,54441,752

4,7871,028

6486.254

16.572.16

17.025.9

16.652.51

84.7810,339

4054,124

41,58037,610

3,9667275475.460

21.071.126.749.17

17.244.29

85.354,445


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)




9

33



CONSOLIDATION 730 –800BREAK FROM DOWNTREND LINEPOSSIBLE REVERSE TREND FROM SIDE WAYS TO UP TRENDBREAK 800: TARGET 850

BREAK PATTERN: TARGET 730

Remark

(I) 790 – 810(II) CHANNEL

RESISITANCE

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

730 - 750

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

740

800

890

Price

CHANNEL

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

SELL

HOLD

Rec.

7.50

(10.11)

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

23-Feb-07

26-Jan-07

Date

34


Finance : Bank Danamon – BDMN

As of 30 March 2007

35



19.08

18.03

Disc. (%) to

FV

6,550

6,100

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

7,800

7,200

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

Loan Breakdown

SME46%

Corporate15%

Motorcycle21%

Cars9%

Housing3%

Credit Cards6%

- Focusing in SME and automotive segments (ADIRA)

- Concern on Single Presence Policy (with BNII)


36

6,5508,150

87,05076,29710,753

2,8451,910

9.3383

192.7

17.10215

193.8

84.532,579

2007 F

(2.96)(58.69)

6.065.4

13.8815.0844.155.44

42.386.3

(22.85)(8.55)79.16

(13.63)15.1511.90(1.40)

42.1041.9221.0422.599.93

(22.45)(33.84)(1.45)

(34.06)230.74

29.6266.96

(40.88)(4.34)26.92(8.80)42.79

6,75012,93482,07372,386

9,4422,4721,3258.82269

17.863.5

18.7120

223.3

75.5133,042

4,7509,113

67,80359,043

8,5893,1882,0038.954085.42.7

11.2203

232.6

82.823,140


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)




10

37



TARGET 7,300

UP TREND

LONG TREM: TRIPLE BOTTOM

SHORT TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOM

BUY6,55030-Mar-07

TARGET 7,300

BREAK 6,100: TARGET 6,700

(NOTE: ACHIEVED 23-MAR-07). UP TREND

TARGET 7,300

RemarkResistance

5,450 -5,850

Support

6,050

6,100

Price

LONG TREM: TRIPLE BOTTOM

SHORT TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOM

TRIPLE BOTTOM

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

8.26

(0.82)

Return

(%)

20-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

38


Finance : Bank Permata – BNLI

As of 30 March 2007

39



33.33

37.93

Disc. (%) to

FV

900

870

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1,200

1,200

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Benefit from lower interest rate

• ASII and Standard Chartered Bank own BNLI


40

9006,125

41,68036,544

5,136655365

788.29.342.0

17.2016

15.54.1

84.56,970

2007 F

3.4419.0910.137.39

36.5225.7117.3616.66120.513.0712.99

(20.48)

14.8124.241.684.51

20.8336.748.80

15.1646.2630.575.429.095.26

(27.98)(17.67)

18.91

37.7526.925.85

20.83

8705,143

37,84534,030

3,762521311

640

8.261.77

21.63-

13.53.3

83.106,669

7203,761

34,78232,155

2,5723992955.538

11.472.15

18.19-

9.82.6

78.505,519


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)




11

41



SHORT TERM: SIDEWAYSPRICE DIRECTION: IF BREAK CHANNEL LINE

BREAK NECKLINE TARGET 1,070SORT TERM: SIDEWAYS

Remark

900 - 910

900 - 910

Resistance

840 - 850

840 - 850

Support

900

870

Price

CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

3.44

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

42


Finance : Bank Mandiri – BMRI

As of 30 March 2007

43



40.00

32.07

Disc. (%) to

FV

2,500

2,650

Price

upgrade on restructure

Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

4,100

3,500

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Asset recovery/ restructure

• Potential low NPL – 2007 NPL < 5%

• Low Valuation – upgrade

• Forecasting change – better NPL

Corporate49%

Commercial30%

Small7%

Micro2%

Consumer12%

Loan Breakdown


44

2,50037,082

277,915251,57426,340

5,2503,6505.8618415.82.7

12.787.4

239.9

59.851,580

2007 F

(13.79)27.893.884.31

-93.6550.7630.2254.6261.22

20(47.84)

46.89(6.5)

(42.03)8.6

(12.90)

76.8222.971.560.41

13.46128.19301.49

15.38296.66255.07

58.45(55.60)300.59

6.07(35.74)

10.1080.16

2,90028,994

267,517241,17126,341

2,7112,421

4.51199.8

2.2524.3559.5

24.6217.0855.02

59,221

1,64023,578

263,383240,16423,215

1,1886033.930

2.761.42

54.8514.8523.2126.5849.97

32,871


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)




12

45



BREAK NECKLINE 2,850 SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND

BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL: TARGET 2,750

TARGET 2,375, ACHIEVED

BREAK 2,650 FILTER 1 % (2,600 – 2,575) TARGET 2,375BUY: BREAK 2,650 – 2,700 WITH HEAVY VOL

Remark

NECKLINE

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

2,500

2,550

2,425

2,650

Price

INVERTSHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

BUY

SELL

Rec.

(1,96)

5.15

8.49

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

9-Mar-07

9-Feb-07

26-Jan-07

Date

46


Agriculture : Astra Agro Lestari – AALI

As of 30 March 2007

47



27.77

24.32

Disc. (%) to

FV

12,600

12,950

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

16,100

16,100

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• CPO prices continue to strength

• Demand for CPO also strength (Demand > Supply)

• The cheapest production cost / ton in the industries

USD 184

CPO80%

Palm Kernel8%

Derivatives10%

Non CPO2%

Revenue

6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)

10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)

USD 206 USD 184 USD 276 Production Cost / ton

UNSPAALILSIP07 F


48

12,6005,8004,176

4763,7002,3581,57327.12

99942.525.36

12.61265

2,3508.40

19,834

2007 F

054.3419.42

(36.36)34.5996.6699.8929.5299.8948.52

(25.70)(49.97)180.42)

34.59(32.80)

0

157.1411.489.56

31.464.80

0(0.38)

(10.64)(0.38)(4.95)

145.36158.12(70.91)

4.80(12.59)157.15

12,6003,7583,497

7482,7491,199

78720.94

50028.637.22

25.2195

1,74612.50

19,843

4,9003,3713,192

5692,6231,199

79023.44

50230.122.949.77325

1,66614.307,713

Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)

Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)




13

49



PRICE MOVEMENT: INSIDE CHANNEL. SHORT TERM INDICATE UP TREND. POSSIBLE BREAK RESISTANCE. TARGET 14,050

BREAK UP TREND SUPPORT (SINCE OCT 06)

UP TRENDBREAK TRIANGLE: TARGET I - 15,700BREAK 15,700 - TARGET II

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

12,800 –13,300

Support

12,600

13,250

12,950

Price

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

TRIANGLE

Pattern

BUY

SELL

BUY

Rec.

4.90

2.31

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Feb-07

26-Jan-07

Date

50


Agriculture : London Sumatera – LSIP

As of 30 March 2007

51



6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)

10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)


UNSPAALILSIP07 F

16.13

17.39

Disc. (%) to

FV

6,200

5,750

Price Remarks

OP

BUY

Rec.

7,200

6,750

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Selling palm products to domestic markets (83% of sales)

• Compare industries – LSIP the highest production cost per ton

Revenue Break down :

• Palm 70%

• Rubber 21%

• Seeds 5%

• Others 4%


52

OPFair Value IDR 7,200

6,2002,6753,5671,7651,802

705480

17.94372

26.644.70

16.6761

1,64312.706,790

2007 F

(6.06)24.5319.507.69

33.8854.9558.4227.2166.8218.33

(29.78)(43.69)

1.6766.63

(30.98)(6.06)

505.5017.1814.7210.9719.462.48

(14.89)(27.37)(14.56)(28.86)406.02608.68

019.66(4.66)

123.72

6,6002,1482,9851,6391,346

455303

14.11223

22.516.69

29.6060

98618.407,229

1,0901,8332,6021,4771,125

444356

19.42261

31.641.324.18

0824

19.303,231


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



14

53



LONG TERM: UP TRENDSIGNAL BUY: BREAK RESISTANCE WEDGE

LONG TERM: UP TRENDBREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 5,400

Remark

RESISTANCEWEDGE

Resistance

SUPPORTWEDGE

NECKLINE

Support

6,200

5,750

Price

WEDGE

SHOULDER HEAD SHOULDER

Pattern

HOLD

HOLD

Rec.

7.82

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

54


Agriculture : Bakrie Sumatera Plan. – UNSP

As of 30 March 2007

55



30.43

32.32

Disc. (%) to

FV

1,150

990

Price

Upgrade concern of CPO & rubber price

demand > supply

Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1,500

1,310

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• CPO and rubber price continuous strength

• The Lowest PBV and PE in the industry

6.408.409.50EV/ EBITDA (X)

10.4512.6116.67 P/ E (X)


UNSPAALILSIP07 F


56


1,1501,1421,570

540900675256

22.46110

28.492.90

10.4519

3866.40

2,681

2007 F

18.5614.4813.77

(16.92)23.2965.0031.5714.9331.576.72

(6.37)(9.89)18.7523.32

(34.02)18.56

133.7312.9310.84

(13.79)48.6879.4968.0048.7768.0013.0057.2139.13

049.04

(22.40)133.82

970997

1,380650730409195

19.5484

26.703.10

11.6016

3139.70

2,261

415883

1,245754491228116

13.1450

23.631.978.34

0210

12.50967


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



15

57



TARGET DOUBLE BOTTOM: 1,350

Remark

NECKLINECHANNEL RESISTANCE

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

1,150

990

Price

LONG TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOMUP TREND CHANNEL

UP TREND CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

16.16

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

58


Agriculture : Tunas Baru Lampung – TBLA

As of 30 March 2007

59



30.15

38.98

Disc. (%) to

FV

315

295

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

410

410

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Concern on small cap and liquidity


60

BuyFair Value IDR 315

3151,3552,2151,270

945155

715.24

177.511.37

18.535

2293.20

1,299

2007 F

31.2513.488.107.179.38

14.8133,9618.04

(10.53)22.4820.0046.6925.009.56

(52.24)31.25

20.00(2.21)41.2126.2068.7513.45

783.33803.31375.00423.46(28.89)(74.74)406.33

68.54(31.63)

20.00

2401,1942,049

1,1185864135

534.44

196.131.15

12.634

2096.70990

2001,2211,451

939512119

60.49

41.171,61

500.791249.80825


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



16

61



SIDEWAYS

BREAK UP TREND CHANNEL: TARGET 280

CRUCIAL PRICE: 305 – 310. IF BREAK 310 BREAK WITH VOL. TARGET 380

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

315

330

295

Price

UP TREND CHANNEL

Pattern

HOLD

SELL

BUY

Rec.

4.54

11.86

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

1-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

62


Infrastructure : Telkom – TLKM

As of 30 March 2007

63



21.82

15.70

Disc. (%) to

FV

9,850

9,550

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

12,000

11,050

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Cash rich

• Room for expansion

• Dividend Promising

• Strength growth

• Concern on retirement plan


64


9,85060,14581,53033,78047,75026,98013,678

22.74678

28.654.16

14.52372

2,3695.70

198,576

2007 F

(2.48)16.3816.673.48

28.2422.7521.184.12

21.18(5.50)

(23.95)(19.52)

20.7828.26

(16.18)(2.48)

71.1923.6112.400.22

25.8028.0141.2114.2441.2112.2536.0821.2341.2825.81

(18.07)71.19

10,10051,67869,88032,64537,23521,98011,287

21.84560

30.315.47

18.04308

1,8476.80

203,616

5,90041,80762,17132,57329,59817,170

7,99319,12

39627.014.02

14.88218

1,4688.30

118,944


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 F(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



17

65



BREAK NECKLINE: 10,350BREAK RESISTANCE NO 4: TARGET 10,500POSSIBLE REVERSE TREND TO UP TREND

TURNING POINT TARGET 9,800

BREAK TRIANGLE; TARGET 8,900THE PRICE STABLE OR MAKE A NEW DIRECTION AND NOT BELOW SUPPORT NO 3, WITHIN 1 – 2 WEEKS

Remark

NECKLINE

RESISTANCE NO 4

Resistance

9,550SUPPORT

NO 3

Support

9,850

8,950

9,550

Price

TRIANGLE

Pattern

BUY

BUY

SELL

Rec.

10.05

6.28

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

13-Feb-07

26-Jan-07

Date

66


Infrastructure : Indosat – ISAT

As of 30 March 2007

67



14.40

19.16

Disc. (%) to

FV

6,250

6,000

Price Remarks

OP

BUY

Rec.

7,150

7,150

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Growth promising

• Concern on buy back shares from government


68


6,25014,67537,90021,20016,700

4,1251,93713.20

36011.602.03

17.36130

3,0734.80

33.962

2007 F

12.6119.9010.7311.429.86

21.3937.3814.5733.3325.042.50

(15.54)(7.14)

9.86(18.64)

12.61

(3.48)5.614.403.006.19

(6.93)(13.12)(17.74)(11.76)(18.19)(9.10)

0.39(1.41)

6.18(4.84)(3.48)

5,55012,23934,22819,02715,201

3,3981,41011.52

2709.281.98

20.56140

2,7975.90

30,158

5,75011,58932,78718,47214,315

3,6511,62314.00

30611.342.18

18.79142

2,6346.20

31,245


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



18

69



CONSOLIDATION, MAKE A NEW PATTERNSTABLE 6,200 – 6,350, WITHIN 2-3 WEEKS, TARGET 6,800

BREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 6,600

UP TREND

Remark

NECKLINE

Resistance

6,050 – 6,150

5,700 – 5,800

5,700 - 5,800

Support

6,250

6,150

6,000

Price

DOUBLEBOTTOM

Pattern

BUY

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1.62

2.5

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

23-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

70


Infrastructure : Perusahaan Gas Negara –PGAS

As of 30 March 2007

71



60.42

50.83

Disc. (%) to

FV

9,350

8,950

Price

Upgrade

Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

15,000

13,500

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• All negative news has been priced to the market

• Open access competition is likely to be delay

• Net profit will pick up in 2008 – forecast > 100%

• All projects are still on schedule


72


9,35011,50018,46511,465

7,0003,1251,69014.70

38024.146.06

24.61237

1,54210.50

42,448

2007 F

(19.40)73.4022.1720.2025.5430.59

(10.68)(48.49)(8.87)

(28.85)(35.79)(11.55)127.88

25.57(43.00)(19.40)

68.1222.0520.1913.8632.8354.09

119.4879.84

117.1965.2526.57

(22.59)103.92

32.75(21.11)

68.12

11,6006,632

15,1149,5385,5762,3931,89228.53

41733.939.44

27.82104

1,22818.42

52,663

6,9005,434

12,5758,3774,1981,553

86215.86

19220.537.46

35.9451

92523.35

31,325


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



19

73



BREAK UP TREND CHANNEL, TARGET 10,200TREND WILL BE REVERSED FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND, BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL (SINCE AUGUST 2006)

UP TRENDSIGNAL SELL, BREAK FROM SUPPORT NO 6

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANC

ENO 2

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

NO 2

LINE NO 6

Support

9,350

8,950

Price

UP TRENDCHANNEL

PARALLEL TREND

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

4.46

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

74


Infrastructure : Bakrie & Brother – BNBR

As of 30 March 2007

75



33.68

52.43

Disc. (%) to

FV

187

164

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

250

250

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Strong earning growth in infrastructure and telecommunication

78.6%Bakrie Telecommunication (BTEL)

96.8%Bakrie Communication

Equity StakeDivisionSectors

28%

25%

46%

91.7%Infrastructure

54.5%Plantation (UNSP)

Telecommunication


76


1876,0559,8105,3004,510

705620

10.2423

13.750.808.131.751673.00

5,043

2007 F

20.6539.7713.2026.520.74

15.38188.52106.42188.52186.41(11.11)(58.18)150.00

0.60(30.23)

20.65

29.1758.2223.5946.837.65

175.23(26.12)(53.30)(26.12)(31.36)

15.6674.83

(35.19)7.79

(20.37)29.17

1554,3328,6664,1894,477

6112154.96

84.800.90

19.440.701664.30

4,180

1202,7387,0122,8534,159

222291

10.6311

7.000.78

11.121.081545.40

3,236


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



20

77



UP TRENDPOSSIBLE BREAK CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 2. BREAK CHANNEL RESITANCE NO 2: TARGET 210

BREAK FORM INTACT RESISTANCE: 170 (2ND

RESISTANCE: 175), TARGET 190-195

Remark

CHANNELRESISTANCE NO 2

CHANNELRESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNELSUPPORT NO 2

CHANNELSUPPORT

Support

187

164

Price

UP TRENDCHANNEL

UP TRENDCHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

14.02

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

78


Infrastructure : Total Bangun Persada - TOTL

As of 30 March 2007

79



53.22

55.73

Disc. (%) to

FV

620

610

Price

Possible upgrade

Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

950

950

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Very prospective stock – construction company

• Benefit from lower interest rate – infrastructure project can get lower rate for funding

• Upgrade depend on the 1st Quarter report

• Performance is better than ADHI


80


6201,4101,058

540518178

986.95

3618.923.29

17.409

18810.101,705

2007 F

(4.62)26.015.80

(2.00)15.4733.83(3.92)

(23.75)(10.91)(16.72)(17.32)

7.060

15.33(17.21)(4.21)

0(3.70)26.5814.5545.31683564.5270.8460.0013.22

000000

6501,1191,000

5514491331029.12

4022.723.98

16.250

16312.101,788

01,162

790481309

7962

5.3425

20.06000

11200


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



21

81



UP TREND

RemarkResistanceSupport

620

Price Pattern

BUY

Rec. Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

Date

82


Energy : Tambang Batu Bara – PTBA

As of 30 March 2007

83



41.30

31.20

Disc. (%) to

FV

3,450

3,125

Price

Upgrade valuation

Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

4,875

4,100

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

- Railway RegulationRailway is the only transport for PTBA

PTBA can develop a railway transportation to transport their coal from mining to port before they are shipped to both domestic (70%) and export (30%)

Also can increase the output to 40m tonnes per annum from 10m tonnes per annum

- Power Supply PTBA plans to build a power supply in Tanjung Enim - Sumatra


84


3,4504,9684,900

8314,069

935765

15.40332

18.801.95

10.39158

1,76610.307,949

2007 F

(2.13)41.1458.062.62

77.6841.6756.1110.6156.11

(12.14)(44.92)(37.30)

58.0077.66

(17.60)(2.13)

95.8317.379.152.92

11.5417.654.93

(10.61)1.27

(5.93)75.5793.37

011.56

(18.83)95.83

3,5253,5203,100

8102,290

660490

13.92213

21.403.55

16.57100994

12.508,122

1,8002,9992,840

7872,053

561467

15.57210

22.752.028.57100891

15.404,147


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



22

85



STRONG RESISTANCE: 3,450REVERSED TREND FORM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND

BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL: TARGET 3,475

SIGNAL BUY: BREAK DOWNTREND CHANNEL

Remark

UP TRENDCHANNEL

RESISTANCE

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

UP TREND CHANNEL SUPPORT

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

3,450

3,250

3,125

Price

UP TREND CHANNEL

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

HOLD

Rec.

6.15

4.00

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

21-Feb-07

26-Jan- 07

Date

86


Energy : Medco Energy – MEDC

As of 30 March 2007

87



17.48

23.52

Disc. (%) to

FV

3,575

3,400

Price

Waiting for selling Lapindo Brantas

Remarks

HOLD

BUY

Rec.

4,200

4,200

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Concern: MEDC can not sell its share’s in Lapindo Brantas before get the approval

from Bappepam

• If the sale is success, we recommend BUY for MEDC


88

HOLDFair Value IDR 4,200

3,575830

1,7901,200

590280100

12.05247

16.952.24

14.47247

1,5934.1

11,914

2007 F

0.7010.6739.8468.304.06

27.2751.5236.9123.5045.61(3.22)

(18.46)178.31

4.04(10.87)

0.70

5.1920.9711.01

(26.72)6.38

21.55(11.65)(26.96)(8.68)

(16.94)(1.12)15.18

(15.17)6.39

(4.17)5.19

3,550750

1,280713567220

668.80200

11.642.32

17.7589

1,5314.60

11,830

3,375620

1,153973533181

7512.05

21914.022.34

15.41105

1,4394.80

11,247

Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (US millions)Total Assets (US millions)Total Liabilities (US millions)Total Equities (US millions)Operating Profit (US millions)Net Profit (US millions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)Book Value (IDR)EV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)

Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



23

89



UP TRENDSIGNAL BUY: BREAK DOWNTREND LINE NO 4

SIGNAL BUY: BREAK DOWNTREND LINE NO 3: TARGET 3,675 – 3,750

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 2

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT NO 2

CHANNEL SUPPORT NO 2CHANNEL RESITANCE NO 1

Support

3,575

3,400

Price

CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

8.8

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

90


Consumption : Indofood – INDF

As of 30 March 2007

91



38.15

34.61

Disc. (%) to

FV

1,520

1,560

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

2,100

2,100

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Internal Restructuring

• Develop plantation to support INDF

• Growth promising


92


1,52025,40016,98011,300

5,6802,231

9903.90111

17.432.53

13.6924

6016.50

14.355

2007 F

12.5915.765.381.06

15.1912.9049.7729.3842.3130.02(2.25)

(20.88)23.0815.13(9.72)12.59

48.3516.9318.896.71

14.4618.89

433.06355.88420.00365.72

29.61(71.47)290.00

14.4718.0348.35

1,35021,94216,11211,181

4,9311,976

6613.01

7813.402.59

17.3120

5227.20

12,750

91018,76514,78610,478

4,3081,662

1240.66

152.881.99

60.675

4566.10

8,594


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



24

93



BREAK DOWNTREND LINE: POSSIBLE REVERSED TREND FROM DOWNTREND TO UP TREND

TARGET ACHIEVED (1,800)

TARGET TRIPLE BOTTOM: 1,800TARGET FLAG: 1,710


1,520

1,800

1,560

Price

LONG TERM: TRIPLE BOTTOMSHORT TERM: FLAG

Pattern

BUY

SELL

BUY

Rec.

15.55

15.38

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

9-Feb-07

26 Jan 07

Date

94


Consumption : Kalbe Farma – KLBF

As of 30 March 2007

95



38.42

24.07

Disc. (%) to

FV

1,210

1,350

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1,675

1,675

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• 8 February 2007 management approved IDR 1.2 trillions share buy back plan

• KLBF can buy up to 10% of its outstanding shares


96


1,2107,1795,4111,1004,3111,360

84011.70

8819.492.85

13.7525

4247.6

12,289

2007 F

1.6818.0814.201.10

18.1117.2423.534.62

31.344.59

(13.91)(22.58)4

400.0018.10

(17.39)1.68

20.203.560.21

(53.48)52.784.884.130.564.69

(31.84)(21.33)

14.8225.0052.76

(12.38)20.20

1,1906,0804,7381,0883,6501,160

68011.18

6718.633.31

17.765

3599.2

12,086

9905,8714,7282,3392,3891,106

65311.12

6427.334.21

15.474

23510.5

10,054


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



25

97



DOUBLE BOTTOM: 26 JAN-07: FAILEDPRICE MOVEMENT: 1,180 –1,350

TARGET DOUBLE BOTTOM: 1,590

Remark

1,330-1,360

Resistance

1,180-1,210

NECKLINE1,330

Support

1,210

1,350

Price

CHANNEL

DOUBLE BOTTOM

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

(10.37)

Return

(%)

30 Mar-07

26-Jan-07

Date

98


Automotive : Astra International – ASII

As of 30 March 2007

99



44.69

24.02

Disc. (%) to

FV

13,200

15,400

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

19,100

19,100

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Benefit from lower interest rate sales will pick up

2

24

14

6

54

Percentage (%)

58.45Heavy Equipment - UNTR

86.72Others - AUTO

44.51Financial services -Bank Permata (BNLI)

76.68Agribusiness - AALI

Automotive

Ownership (%)Revenue breakdown


100


13,20064,70060,50032,87727,623

6,6905,3448.26

1,32019.351.93

10.00410

6,8236.30

53,438

2007 F

(15.92)16.564.44

(7.53)23.4734.0443.9623.5143.9616.60

(31.90)(41.60)173.33

23.47(30.85)(15.92)

53.92(10.08)(5.29)

(12.73)9.54

(22.17)(31.98)(24.35)(31.98)(37.90)

40.51126.28(65.91)

9.5346.9453.92

15,70055,50857,92935,55622,373

4,9913,7126.69917

16.592.84

17.12150

5,5269.11

63,559

10,20061,73161,16640,74220,424

6,4135,4578.84

1,34826.722.027.57440

5,0456.20

41,293


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



26

101



STILL ABOVE NECKLINE OF DOUBLE BOTTOM (13,000)TARGET 12,500: ACHIEVEDBREAK FROM CHANNEL RESISTANCE NO 2: TARGET 15,000

BREAK FROM DOWNTREND CHANNEL NO 1: TARGET 12,500

TARGET: 17.700

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

NO 2

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

NO 2

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

NO 2

CHANNEL SUPPORT

NO 2

Support

13,200

13,900

15,400

Price

LONG TERM: DOUBLE BOTTOMDOWNTREND CHANNEL

DOWNTREND CHANNEL

DOUBLE BOTTOM

Pattern

BUY

SELL

BUY

Rec.

9.49

(14.28)

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

14-Mar-07

26 Jan 07

Date

102


Heavy Equipment : United Tractors – UNTR

As of 30 March 2007

103



14.86

28.78

Disc. (%) to

FV

7,400

6,600

Price Remarks

OP

BUY

Rec.

8.500

8.500

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Benefit from lower interest rate – equipment and coal sales will pick up

• Strong Sales


104


7,40017,40011,450

5,785,6622,3101,6829.67590

29.713.73

12.54165

1.9866.60

21.102

2007 F

12.9826.8213.371.94

28.0472.77

174.91116.77174.91114.70(11.77)(58.90)135.71

28.04(23.26)

12.98

78.233.31

(5.02)(13.02)

7.70(21.81)(41.77)(43.63)(41.77)(45.93)

65.49206.08(36.36)

7.7091.1178.23

6,55013,72010,100

5,6784,4221,337

6124.46215

13.844.22

30.5270

1,5518.60

18,678

3,67513,28110,634

6,5284,1061,7101,0517.91369

25.602.559.97110

1,4404.50

10,480


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



27

105



BREAK RESISTANCE: TARGET 7,850

BREAK NECKLINE: TARGET 7,450

Remark

7,350

NECKLINE

ResistanceSupport

7,400

6,850

6,600

Price

ASCENDING TRIANGLE

DOUBLE BOTTOM

SHORT TERM: DOWNTREND CHANNELLONG TERM: UP TREND

Pattern

BUY

BUY

HOLD

Rec.

8.02

12.12

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

19-Feb- 07

26 Jan 07

Date

106


Property : Ciputra Development – CTRA

As of 30 March 2007

107



25.00

47.43

Disc. (%) to

FV

920

780

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1,150

1,150

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

Benefit from

• Lower interest rate

• Lower mortgage rate

CTRA is a better company after last year restructured and right issue

Segment Market from high to low income


108


9201,2884,1001,2902,810

3201279.89

204.532.09

46.000

136012.505,860

2007 F

21.053.04

(7.03)(24.56)

4.073.23

(71.43)(72.27)(71.43)(72.55)

16.31323.68

012.40(8.09)21.05

153.3319.05

(16.90)(68.35)

031.91

464.40374.09

42.8600

77.330

49.57(9.33)

153.33

7601,2504,4101,7102,700

310446

35.6770

16.511.79

10.860

1,21013.604,841

3001,0505,3075,403

(96)235

797.52

49(82.29)(19.91)

6.120

80915.001,911

Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)NAVEV/ EBITDA (X)Market Cap (IDR billions)

Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



28

109



TARGET : 1,050

RANGE BETWEEN: 750 – 820. BREAK 820, TARGET 930SCENARIO NO 2: STABLE BETWEEN 870-910: TARGET 1,020


920

780

Price

FLAG

TRIANGLE

Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

17.94

Return

(%)

30 Mar 07

26Jan 07

Date

110


Property : Ciputra Surya – CTRS

As of 30 March 2007

111



37.09

37.09

Disc. (%) to

FV

930

930

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

1,275

1,275

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

Benefit from

• Lower interest rate

• Lower mortgage rate


112


930515

2,100902

1,198105

8316.41

426.941.54

22.148

1,800605

1,840

2007 F

(5.10)(21.61)

16.8026.5110.41

(49.03)(50.82)(37.36)(50.82)(55.46)(14.05)

92.96(53.16)

21.6210.40(5.10)

133.3318.38(4.16)

(23.82)15.4333.7740.8318.9740.8322.01

102.1565.6842.3434.5515.42

133.33

980657

1,798713

1,085206169

25.7285

15.581.79

11.4817

1,480548

1,939

420555

1,876936940154120

21.6261

12.770.886.93

121,100

475831

Share Price (IDR)Total Revenue (IDR billions)Total Assets (IDR billions)Total Liabilities (IDR billions)Total Equities (IDR billions)Operating Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit (IDR billions)Net Profit Margin (%)Earning per Share (IDR)Return on Equity (%)Price to Book Value (X)Price Earning Ratio (X)Dividend per Share (IDR)NAV (IDR)Book Value (IDR)Market Cap (IDR billions)

Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



29

113



RANGE BETWEEN 900 – 1,000

UP TRENDRANGE BETWEEN 900 – 1,000BREAK 1,000: TARGET 1,100

Remark

990-1,010

990-1,010

Resistance

900-910

900-910

Support

930

930

Price Pattern

BUY

BUY

Rec.

0

Return

(%)

30 Mar 07

26 Jan 07

Date

114


Transportation : Berlian Laju Tanker – BLTA

As of 30 March 2007

115



27.65

43.71

Disc. (%) to

FV

1,880

1,670

Price Remarks

BUY

BUY

Rec.

2,400

2,400

Target

Fair Value

30 March 07

26 Jan 07

Date

• Strong sales

• Buy back shares

• Internal restructuring


116


1,8803,6789,0355,4213,6141,208

92325.09

22225.542.168.47

478697.00

7,816

2007 F

8.0519.6910.126.84

15.4327.70

(23.40)(36.00)(26.73)(33.64)(6.39)47.4723.6815.40

(17.65)8.05

67.3117.423.74

(14.01)55.93(9.82)86.8259.1090.5719.817.30

(12.20)90.0055.90(6.59)67.31

1,7403,0738,2055,0743,131

9461,20539.21

30338.492.315.74

387538.50

7,234

1,0402,6177,9095,9012,0081,049

64524.65

15932.122.156.54

204839.10

4,324


Change(%)

Change(%)

2006 A(Dec)

2005 A(Dec)



30

117



LONG TERM; UP TRENDSIDE WAYS: 1,660 – 1,790SIGNAL BUY: BREAK 1,790: TARGET 1,910

Remark

CHANNEL RESISTANCE

Resistance

CHANNEL SUPPORT

Support

1,880

1,670

Price

UP TREND CHANNEL

Pattern

BUY

HOLD

Rec.

12.57

Return

(%)

30-Mar-07

26 Jan 07

Date

118


Fund Management

as of 31 December 2006

483Total

455Discretionary

28Reksadana Keraton

Total (billion)Products

Our Services

MPAM

Corporate Finance

Financial Advisory

Mutual Fund Discretionary

Company RestructuringMerger and AcquisitionsCapital Formation for Pre-IPOStrategic Investment Advisory

Discretionary Funds- Direct Investment

Fund- Private Equity Fund- Pooling Fund

Reksadana KeratonMix Mutual Fund

119


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