Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals by aabid mir

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

and Millennium Development Goals

By Aabid Hussain Mir

Department of environmental Studies

North-Eastern Hill University Shillong.

ISSUE: Human demand for ecosystem services is quickly growing around the world…

Water

One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity.

Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years

Food

Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years

Timber

Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population.

Wood demand will double in next 50 years.

ISSUE: A recent study* shows that the capacity of many ecosystems to provide certain services has been declining…

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Bad

Not Assessed

Agro-ec

osyste

m

Coastal

System

s

Forest S

ystem

s

Freshwate

r

Grassla

nds

Food-Fiber Production

Water Quality

Water Quantity

Biodiversity

Carbon StorageIncreasing

Decreasing

Mixed

Condition of Ecosystem

ChangingCapacity

Key

*Source: Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems. 2000. WRI, IFPRI

Ecosystem Type

Services

What is Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)?

Largest assessment ever undertaken for the health of ecosystems.

Initiated by UN general secretary- Kofi Annan in 2000, authorized by governments

through 4 conventions, launched in 2001 and completed in 2005.

A consortium of governments, non-profit groups, international agencies, universities, and

businesses to conduct a global assessment of the Earth’s ecosystems, the services they

provide and to assess the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being.

Designed to meet the needs of stakeholders, including the business community, the health

sector, nongovernmental organizations, and indigenous peoples.

The MA focuses on:

Ecosystem services

The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being

ecosystems intensively managed and modified by humans.

The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth

How was it done?

Prepared by 1360 experts from 95 countries governed by a multi-stakeholder board drawn from the world of science, civil society, government and the private sector.

Information was synthesized from scientific literatures and relevant peer-reviewed datasets and models.

Incorporated knowledge held by the private sector, practitioners, local communities, and indigenous people.

Consists of interlinked assessments undertaken at local, watershed and regional scales, which fed into the global assessment.

There are 18 MA-approved sub-global assessments with an additional 15 of associated status.

The MA Board and design are reflective of a full spectrum of stakeholder groups:

Private sectorPrivate sector

• MA has developed a close relationship with the World Business Council on Sustainable Development

• Individual companies are represented by Board members• MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries such as credit

agencies, institutional investors, and trade organizations

Media and PublicMedia and Public

National and sub-national governmentsNational and sub-national governments

• ~180 governments have endorsed the MA through their participation in international conventions

• Administrative authorities are also engaged as users at other levels

International organizationsInternational organizations

• The MA was featured as a key action in the UN Secretary-General’s “Millennium Report”, April 2000

• The MA was launched by Kofi Annan, June 2001

• 13 international institutions are directly represented on the MA Board

Local communities and civil societyLocal communities and civil society

• Traditional knowledge of indigenous groups will be incorporated in the MA

• MA has been designed to meet some assessment needs of indigenous and local communities

• MA will provide information to various news outlets, journals, etc.

• Findings may become part of a public information campaign on ecosystems

MA Findings - Outline

1. Ecosystem Changes in Last 50 Years

2. Gains and Losses from Ecosystem ChangeThree major problems will decrease long-term

benefits Degradation of Ecosystem Services Increased Likelihood of Nonlinear Changes Exacerbation of Poverty for Some People

3. Ecosystem Prospects for Next 50 Years

4. Reversing Ecosystem Degradation

• More land was converted to cropland since 1945 than in the 18th and 19th centuries combined

• 25% of the world’s coral reefs were badly degraded or destroyed in the last several decades

• 35% of mangrove area has been lost in this time

• Amount of water in reservoirs quadrupled since 1960

• Withdrawals from rivers and lakes doubled since 1960

Biogeochemical Cycles

Since 1960: Flows of biologically

available nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems doubled

Flows of phosphorus tripled

> 50% of all the synthetic nitrogen fertilizer ever used has been used since 1985

60% of the increase in the atmospheric concentration of CO2 since 1750 has taken place since 1959

Human-produced Reactive Nitrogen

Humans produce as much biologically available N as all natural pathways and

this may grow a further 65% by 2050

Dal lake, Kashmir

Irreversible changes to species diversity

The distribution of species on Earth is becoming more homogenous

Humans have increased the species extinction rate by between 50 and 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)

10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)

Changes to ecosystems have provided substantial benefitsSince 1960, while population doubled and economic activity increased 6-fold:

food production increased 2 ½ times; food production per capita has grown and food price has fallen

water use doubled wood harvests for pulp

and paper production tripled

timber production increased by more than half

installed hydropower capacity doubled

Service Status

Food crops

livestock

capture fisheries

aquaculture

wild foods

Fiber timber +/–

cotton, silk +/–

wood fuel

Genetic resources

Biochemicals, medicines

Water fresh water

Status of Provisioning Services

Status of Regulating and Cultural Services

Status

Regulating Services

Air quality regulation

Climate regulation – global

Climate regulation – regional and local

Water regulation +/–

Erosion regulation

Water purification and waste treatment

Disease regulation +/–

Pest regulation

Pollination

Natural hazard regulation

Cultural Services

Spiritual and religious values

Aesthetic values

Recreation and ecotourism +/–

Examples of nonlinear change

Fisheries collapse

Eutrophication

Species introductions and losses

Regional climate change

Level of poverty remains high and inequities are growing

Economics and Human Development 1.1 billion people surviving on less than $1 per day of

income. During the 1990s, 21 countries experienced declines in

their rankings in the Human Development Index

Access to Ecosystem Services An estimated 856 million people were undernourished in

2000–2002, up 32 million from 1995–97 Per capita food production has declined in sub-Saharan

Africa Some 1.1 billion people still lack access to improved

water supply, and more than 2.6 billion lack access to improved sanitation

Water scarcity affects roughly 1–2 billion people worldwide

Ecosystem services and poverty reduction

Degradation of ecosystem services harms poor people

Half the urban population in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean suffers from one or more diseases associated with inadequate water and sanitation

The declining state of capture fisheries is reducing an inexpensive source of protein in developing countries. Per capita fish consumption in developing countries, excluding China, declined between 1985 and 1997

Ecosystem services and poverty reduction

Critical concern: Dryland systems Lowest levels of human well-

being Only 8% of the world’s

renewable water supply Per capita water availability is

two thirds of the level required for minimum levels of human well-being

Approximately 10–20% of drylands are degraded

Experienced the highest population growth rate in the 1990s

Cover 41% of Earth’s land surface and more than 2 billion people inhabit them

Changes in direct drivers

Habitat transformation: Further 10–20% of grassland and forestland is projected to be converted by 2050

Overexploitation, overfishing: Pressures continue to grow in all scenarios

Invasive alien species: Spread continues to increase

Nutrient loading

Global flux of nitrogen to

coastal ecosystems will

increase by a further 10–20%

by 2030

Potential future impacts By the end of the century, climate change and

its impacts may be the dominant direct driver of biodiversity loss and changes in ecosystem services globally

Net harmful impact on ecosystem services The balance of scientific evidence suggests that

there will be a significant net harmful impact on ecosystem services worldwide if global mean surface temperature increases more than 2o C above preindustrial levels (medium certainty)

Changes in direct drivers:Climate Change

Responses – Importance of Indirect Drivers

Ecosystem degradation can rarely be reversed without actions that address one or more indirect drivers of change: population change (including growth and migration) change in economic activity (including economic

growth, disparities in wealth, and trade patterns) sociopolitical factors (including factors ranging from

the presence of conflict to public participation in decision-making)

cultural factors technological change

Collectively these factors influence the level of production and consumption of ecosystem services and the sustainability of the production.

MILLENIUM DEVEPLOMENT GOALS

Set of numerical and time-bound targets to measure achievements in

human and social development.

Agreed by 192 countries and 23 international organizations to be

achieved by 2015.

Adopted in 2000 in United Nation Millennium Declaration at the UN

Summit.

Includes 21 targets and 60 indicators .

Goals and TargetsIndicators for

monitoring progress

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Target 1.A: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than one dollar a day

1. Proportion of population below $1 (PP) per day.

2. Poverty gap ratio.

3. Share of poorest quintile in national consumption

Target 1.B: Achieve full and productive employment and decent work for all, including women and young people

1. Growth rate of GDP per person employed

2. Employment-to-population ratio

3. Proportion of employed people living below $1 (PPP) per day

4. Proportion of own-account and contributing family workers in total employment

Target 1.C: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people who suffer from hunger

1. Prevalence of underweight children under-five years of age

2. Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Target 2.A: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere, boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a full course of primary schooling

1. Net enrolment ratio in primary education

2. Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach last grade of primary.

3. Literacy rate of 15-24 year-olds, women and men

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Target 3.A: Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary education, preferably by 2005, and in all levels of education no later than 2015

1. Ratios of girls to boys in primary, secondary and tertiary education.

2. Share of women in wage employment in the non-agricultural sector.

3. Proportion of seats held by women in national parliament

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Target 4.A: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, the under-five mortality rate

1. Under-five mortality rate

2. Infant mortality rate

3. Proportion of 1 year-old children immunised against measles

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Target 5.A: Reduce by three quarters, between 1990 and 2015, the maternal mortality ratio

1. Maternal mortality ratio

2. Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel

Target 5.B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

1. Contraceptive prevalence rate

2. Adolescent birth rate

3. Antenatal care coverage (at least one visit and at least four visits)

4. Unmet need for family planning

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseasesTarget 6.A: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the spread of HIV/AIDS

1. HIV prevalence among population aged 15-24 years

2. Condom use at last high-risk sex

3. Proportion of population aged 15-24 years with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIV/AIDS

4. Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of non-orphans aged 10-14 years

Target 6.B: Achieve, by 2010, universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it

1. Proportion of population with advanced HIV infection with access to antiretroviral drugs

Target 6.C: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the incidence of malaria and other major diseases

1. Incidence and death rates associated with malaria

2. Proportion of children under 5 sleeping under insecticide-treated bed nets

3. Proportion of children under 5 with fever who are treated with appropriate anti-malarial drugs

4. Incidence, prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis

5. Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Target 7.A: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources Target 7.B: Reduce biodiversity loss, achieving, by 2010, a significant reduction in the rate of loss

1. Proportion of land area covered by forest2. CO2 emissions, total, per capita and per $1 GDP

(PPP)3. Consumption of ozone-depleting substances4. Proportion of fish stocks within safe biological

limits5. Proportion of total water resources used 6. Proportion of terrestrial and marine areas

protected7. Proportion of species threatened with extinction

Target 7.C: Halve, by 2015, the proportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation

8. Proportion of population using an improved drinking water source

9. Proportion of population using an improved sanitation facility

Target 7.D: By 2020, to have achieved a significant improvement in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers

10. Proportion of urban population living in slums.

Sanitation

G o a l 8 : D e v e l o p a g l o b a l p a r t n e r s h i p f o r d e v e l o p m e n t

Target 8.A: Develop further an open, rule-based, predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financial system. Includes a commitment to good governance, development and poverty reduction – both nationally and internationally.

Target 8.B: Address the special needs of the least developed countries. Includes: tariff and quota free access for the least developed countries' exports; enhanced programme of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) and cancellation of official bilateral debt; and more generous ODA for countries committed to poverty reduction

Target 8.C: Address the special needs of landlocked developing countries and small island developing States (through the Programme of Action for the Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States and the outcome of the twenty-second special session of the General Assembly)

Target 8.D: Deal comprehensively with the debt problems of developing countries through national and international measures in order to make debt sustainable in the long term.

Target 8.E: In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies, provide access to affordable essential drugs in developing countries.

Target 8.F: In cooperation with the private sector, make available the benefits of new technologies, especially information and communications

India’s MDG Framework

• As per the original framework adopted by India, there are 18 targets.

• But Only 12 (Targets 1 to 11 and 18), which are relevant to India, are statistically monitored.

• Corresponding to the 12 monitorable targets, India has adopted 35 of the 48 prescribed indicators (by United Nations) as relevant for statistical tracking.

MDG Attainment in the Poor States of India

The poorest states in India (e.g., Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Orissa, and Madhya Pradesh):

• are among the most populous in the country, and

• have among the worst MD indicators.

Owing to more rapid population growth, these states will account for an even larger share of India’s population in 2015.

Therefore, India’s attainment of MDGs will largely depend on the performance of

these states.

Andhra Pradesh Arunachal PradeshAssam

Bihar

Delhi

Goa

Gujarat

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

Jammu & Kashmir

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

Maharashtra

Manipur

MeghalayaMizoramNagaland

Orissa

Punjab

Rajasthan

Sikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

West Bengal

Andaman & Nicobar Islands

Chandigarh

Dadra & Nagar Haveli

Daman & Diu

Lakshadweep

PondicherryIndia

0

50

Poverty Head Count Ratio-States/UTs %

2004-05 level 2015-Projected level 2015-Target LevelSource: CSO,INDIA

Arunachal PradeshAssam

Bihar

Goa

Gujarat

Haryana

Himachal Pradesh

India

Karnataka

Kerala

Madhya Pradesh

MaharashtraManipur

Meghalaya

Orissa

Punjab

Rajasthan

Sikkim

Tamil Nadu

Tripura

Uttar Pradesh

West Bengal

0.00

50.00

100.00

Infant Mortality Rate per 1000 live births

2008 level 2015 Projected level 2015 Target levelSource:

CSO,INDIA

Analysis has been at a highly aggregate level – typically the level of the country. This is meaningless in a large and heterogeneous country like India.

The likelihood of attaining the MDGs hasn’t been usefully linked to the factors that influence MD indicators. This is necessary to address the question: what will it take to attain the MDGs?

Limitations of much of the MDG

THANK YOU

Millennium ecosystem services and millennium development goals by aabid mir

Education

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