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IsharaS.KodikaraAFP

THE STATE REMAINS BEHOLDEN TO THE ARMY DESPITE TWO SUCCESSIVE CIVILIANGOVERNMENTS.

ThereisnothingsurprisingabouthowthePakistanPeoplesParty(PPP)istryingtowiggleoutofthedifficultsituationcreatedforitbyitscochairmanandformerpresidentofPakistanAsifAliZardari.Therearereasonsforit.

Backin1997,IhadtheopportunitytoworkcloselywithProf.StephenP.CohenattheUniversityofIllinoisatUrbanaChampaign.CohenwasupdatinghisfamousbookonthePakistanArmy.OneofthequestionsweoftendiscussedwaswhethertheArmycouldmakeanothercoupifcircumstancespushedittothatend.

Cohenwasoftheviewthatinternationaltrendsandthewaveofdemocracyhadmadeitdifficultforpraetorianarmiestooustciviliangovernmentseasilyandwhilehedidnotdiscountsuchapossibilityentirely,itwasbecomingincreasinglyimprobable.Myownassessment,relyinglessonacademictheoriesandmoreonmyguthavingknowntheArmysincemychildhoodwasthatiftheArmywereconvincedthatnotdoingsowillleadtochaos,itwouldntcareabouttheinternationalenvironment.

OnOct.12,1999,IwasinChiangMaiwhenIheardaboutthecoup.IwasremindedofthoseconversationswithProf.Cohen.

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Thetheoreticalpossibilityhadbecomeareality.

FastforwardtoMarch9,2007.WhenthethenchiefjusticeofPakistanIftikharChaudhrywasputonapresidentialreferenceandPakistansawamovementagainstgeneralpresidentPervezMusharraf,therewasmuchenthusiasmamonglawyersandcivilsociety.TherefrainseemedtobethatgettingridofMusharrafandestablishingthewritofthejudiciarywillsomehowalsorightthecivilmilitaryimbalance.

Thesecondphaseofthemovement,afterChaudhrywasreinstatedand,assomethensaid,vindicated,wasperchedprecariouslyandmistakenlyonthisbelief.Thewishhadtrumpedtherealityandleadersofthemovementbegantopracticemagic.

IstartedadebateintheDailyTimes,thenalivelynewspaper.Oneofmyarticles,captioned,TransitionistsVersusTransformationists,earnedmetheireofthestarryeyedbelieversinthemagicthatwould,somehow,inasingleleap,overcomethestructuralissuesthatlieattheheartofthecivilmilitaryprobleminPakistan.IpredictedthatifMusharrafwerepushedbeyondacertainpoint,theArmywouldkickthechessboardasideandstartplayingSolitaire.

WesawthatonNov.3,2007withMusharrafsEmergencyPlus.Thebelieversinmagicweregreatlydisappointed.

Transformationsrequiremultiplesmallertransitionsforthemtobecomeeffective.Also,theliteratureondemocratictransitionsevenasitdealswithstatesthataregeographically,politically,andhistoricallydifferentisagreedonthefactthattheonusofresponsibilityforconsolidatingdemocracyisonthecivilianactors,notthemilitary,whichwill,expectedly,dowhateveritcantoretainitsprimacy.

Putanotherway,thedeclineinthemilitarysprimacycannotbeadvantagedbytheciviliansunlessthereisalsoavisibleinclineinthelatterscapacitytogoverneffectively.Butthereismore.AsIwroteelsewhere,itisimportanttorememberthedifferencesbetweencivilianstates(wherethemilitaryistotallysubordinate),civilianledstates(wherethemilitaryissubordinatebutremainsseatedatthehightableforexample,theFrenchFifthRepublic,Russia,constitutionaldemocraticIndia,andmarketsocialistChina)andmilitaryorquasimilitarystatesinwhichthemilitaryisopenlyinvolvedinthepoliticalprocess,hasthecapacitytodirectstatepolicyorvetosuchpoliciesasitdoesnotwishtoseeimplemented,andenjoyssufficientpopularsupporttothreatenthelegitimacyofcivilianactors.

Secondly,theacceptanceofthenormofciviliansupremacyoverthemilitaryanditsreiterationnotwithstanding,itisnotveryold.Ithasevolvedwiththecomingintoexistenceofprofessionalandstandingmilitaries.Itwasntuntil1957thatSamuelHuntingtonlaidthefoundationsofatheoreticalframeworkforcivilmilitaryrelationswithhisbookTheSoldierandtheState:TheTheoryandPoliticsofCivilMilitaryRelations.

Theeffectivecontrolofthemilitarybycivilianshasdependedlargelyonhowstatesperceivetheirsecurityenvironmentandwhethertheciviliansunderstandthesecuritysector.Thisisanimportantfactor.Beginningintheearly1990s,scholarsofcivilmilitaryrelationscoinedthetermsecondgenerationproblem,referringtostateswheretherewasnoovertthreatofamilitarytakeoverbutwhere

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theciviliansstilllackedthecapacitytounderstandthesecuritysectorand,therefore,reliedonmilitaryofficerstoguidethem.Inotherwords,whileciviliansretaindejurecontrol,thesecuritysectorpolicies,defacto,areformulatedandimplementedbythemilitary.

Thirdly,quiteoftendictatorialoronepartyregimeshaveexercisedmoreeffectivecontroloverthemilitarythanmanydemocracies.Thispointneedstobestressedbecausethenormseemstodemandeffectiveaprioricontrolofthemilitaryinademocracy.Thereisevidencetosuggest,however,thateffectiveciviliancontroldoesnotautomaticallyflowfromdemocracy.

Today,aswesurveythescenesince2008,itisobviousthatthedesirablegoalofeffectiveciviliancontrolremainsaselusiveasitwasin2007.Twosuccessiveciviliangovernmentshavefailedtoexerciseitforreasonsthatarebeyondthescopeofthisarticle.Equally,themilitaryhasbecomemuchsmarterinretainingitspositionattheheadofthehightable.Idcallitthetransitionfromthephysicaluseofthe111Brigadetothecontrolofelectronicandvirtualspaces.Ofcourse,thephysicalthreatisthere.Itremainspotent.Butitseffectivenessisnotinitsusebutinthethreatofitsuse.

Itisnowagameofperceptionsandimage.TheArmyhasproveditselfmuchsmarterinplayingitthantheciviliangovernmentsandthepoliticalparties.[NB:noticethewaytheCorpsCommanderinKarachiaddressestheintelligentsiaandthebusinesscommunityandRangersgoaboutsettingupmedicalcenterstodealwitheffectsofheatstroke,justtwoofmanyexamplesofworkthatwouldbedonebytheciviliangovernmentsiftheycouldgettheiracttogether.]

Atthesametime,themilitary,throughitspublicrelationsdirectorate,keepspushingtheenvelope.Forthemostpart,whatitdoesgoesunchallenged.Thepusillanimityofthepoliticalactorsisonpublicdisplay.Inanenvironmentwherepoliticalactorshavethrowninthetowel,themilitarydoesnotneedtoresorttouseofforce.Thelatentthreatissufficientandthepoliticalactorshavenothingintheirkittyintermsofinnovativethinkingoractiontomountanychallenge.Ontopofthat,bytakingtheinitiativeandaddressingpeoplesconcerns,themilitarymakesthecivilianslookevermoreinefficient.

This,then,isthescenarioinwhichwehavetobothseethestatementbyformerpresidentAsifAliZardariaswellasunderstandthehastewithwhichthePPPhasdistanceditselffromwhatitactuallymeant,choosinginsteadtoputawestandbehindourarmedforcesfaceonit.

NoticealsothefactthattherulingPMLNrefusedtostandwithZardari.Ofcourse,thathaspartlytodowiththepatheticrecordofthePPP,apartythathasshownzerointerestingovernance.Mostlythishastodowithnotrubbingthemilitarythewrongway.

Inshort,withthesociopoliticalevolutiononthecivilianside,themilitaryhasadaptedandevolveditsstrategy.Itmakesnosensetogetintothedriversseatwhenitcansafeguarditscoreinterestswithoutdoingso.IthasgottenoutoftheroughpatchinwhichMusharrafhadlandeditandisnowonceagaincenterstage.Anditsgreatestadvantageisthatifthingsgowrong,itcangettoblamethecivilians.

TheEnglishlanguagehasatermforit:winwin!

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HaideriseditorofnationalsecurityaffairsatCapitalTV.HewasaFordScholaratthePrograminArmsControl,DisarmamentandInternationalSecurityattheUniversityofIllinoisatUrbanaChampaignandaVisitingFellowattheBrookingsInstitution,Washington,D.C.Hetweets@ejazhaider

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