Forecasting the Direction of the US StockMarket with Dynamic Binary Probit Models
Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction
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Transcript of Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction
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Metropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction
AMPO Travel Modeling Work Group
December 10, 2007Washington, DC
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1863Founding of the National Academy of
Sciences
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About the National Academies Historic mission: form committees of experts to
address critical national issues and give advice to the federal government and the public.
Provide independent, objective, and non-partisan advice with high standards of scientific and technical quality. Checks and balances are applied at every step in the study process to protect the integrity of the reports and to maintain public confidence in them.
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Transportation Research Board One of five major divisions within the
National Academies Much of what TRB does is different from
the core mission of the National Academies
“Metropolitan Travel Forecasting” is a traditional National Academies policy study
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Sponsors of the Study Office of the Secretary, USDOT Federal Highway Administration Federal Transit Administration
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Scope of the Study Determine state of practice in
metropolitan travel forecasting Identify technical shortcomings of the
models for their intended uses Recommend actions needed to ensure
appropriate technical processes are being used
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CommitteeMartin Wachs, chairman, RAND Corporation, MPOs
Michael R. Morris, North Central Texas COG Charles L. Purvis, Oakland MTCGuy Rousseau, Atlanta Regional Commission Richard E. Walker, Metro Portland, OR
AcademiaGeorge B. Dresser, TTI, TXRonald W. Eash, Northwestern University, ILRobert A. Johnston, University of California, DavisEric J. Miller, University of Toronto, Canada
State DOTsLaura L. Cove, North Carolina DOTMary Lynn Tischer, Virginia DOT
ConsultantsThomas B. DeenRichard H. Pratt
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Technical Advisory Group Williams Davidson, PB Consult Thomas Rossi, Cambridge Systematics Williams Woodford, AECOM
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Sources of Information Web-based survey of MPOs In-depth interviews of MPOs Literature review Briefings from stakeholders The expertise of the committee
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Review of the Committee’s Report Elizabeth Deakin, U of California Mark Hallenbeck, U of Washington Lester Hoel, U of Virginia Charles Howard, Seattle MPO Keith Killough, SCAG Ron Kirby, Washington DC MPO Frank Koppelman, Northwestern U Keith Lawton, Consultant
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Oversight of the Review Process
Adib Kanafani, U California
Mike Walton, U Texas
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The Result
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Findings 4-step model is basic approach (estimate
trips, distribute among origins and destinations, determine mode, assign to network)
• Basic framework unchanged for over 50 years• Many variations in complexity of approach• Complex issues lead to complex models (e.g. travel
models linked with land use models)• San Francisco City, Columbus Ohio MPO, and New
York MTC have adopted more advanced approaches
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Findings (con’t) There is no single approach to travel
forecasting that is “correct” for all MPOs The planning context and the nature of
questions being asked should determine the type and complexity of model tools employed
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Findings- Current Models
Inadequate for demand analysis of many applications
• Induced travel• Land use policies• HOT and time variable road pricing• Environmental justice• Telecommuting• Mode of access to transit• Traveler response to congested networks
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Findings- Current Models (con’t)
Certain modes are poorly characterized, e.g.
Non-motorized travel Freight and commercial vehicle travel
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Findings- Current Models (con’t)Inadequate for supply-side analysis- No disaggregate estimates of volumes and
speeds on specific routes by time of day. This affects-• Evaluation of traffic ops improvements• Time shifting in congested networks• Evaluation of freight movement policies• Emissions estimates• Evacuation planning
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Findings- Current Models (con’t)
Advanced travel models are being developed
• Detailed representation of person and household activities and travel
• Continuous representation of time and network performance
• Implemented in a few places – appear to work well
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Findings- Current Practice Inadequate data Optimism bias Quality control Validation errors
(FTA commended for efforts to ensure QC)
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Findings- Obstacles to Model Improvement
• Preoccupation with meeting immediate demands of production
• Fear of legal challenges• Significant budget and staff limitations• Insufficient evidence that advanced models can
be implemented for a reasonable cost and provide significant improvements
• Poor/inadequate data
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Findings- Federal Government
Federal support for models development not commensurate with federal demands on modeling
• Reduction in federal support: in 60’s and 70’s federal investment = $15 million annually in current dollars compared with about $2.5 million today
• Growth in federal planning and environmental requirements for states and MPOs has increased significantly
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Overarching Recommendations Develop and implement new modeling
approaches better suited to providing reliable forecasts for such applications as operational analyses, environmental assessments, evaluation of policy alternatives, freight forecasts
Take steps to ensure better practice• Federal, state, regional collaboration needed
to deliver better models and practice
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Recommendations for MPOs
MPOs would benefit from establishing a national cooperative R&D program
• $4-5 million annually, governed by MPOs themselves, for models selection, deployment, evaluation
• NYSMPO “shared cost initiative”
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Recommendations for MPOs (con’t) Continue peer reviews University partnerships Reasonableness checks of project
forecasts Document experience with advanced
practice
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Recommendations for States Support development of MPO
cooperative research program Evaluate, in cooperation with MPOs,
socio-economic forecasts used for modeling
Continue MUGs
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Recommendations for Federal Gov’t Support and provide funding for incremental
improvements to 4-step models that are appropriate for use.
Support and provide funding for development, implementation, evaluation of advanced models.
Continue TMIP Increase funding – 0.005% of federal aid is about $20
million, which is roughly comparable to the $15 million of support in the ‘60s and ‘70s.
MPO Certification- models check-list; incorporate MPO peer reviews
Provide flexibility for MPOs to apply models appropriate to their needs.
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Federal, State, Local Establish goals, responsibilities, improved training
elements, means of improving travel models—perhaps through a steering committee of principle stakeholders.
Develop and keep current a national handbook of practice (not a standards manual)—perhaps through national organization that could bring partners together & perhaps funded by MPO CRP, NCHRP, federal government.
Document data requirements for updating travel models, validating models, freight modeling, meeting air quality conformity requirements, etc.
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A strategy for change Practice resistant to change. For the past 40 years, advances in R&D &
innovation in modeling has led to only incremental change.
Need to break out of this cycle. Harness the coordinated resources of each
level of government. Return to creativity and innovation of the early
days of travel forecasting.
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TRB Annual Meeting SessionMetropolitan Travel Forecasting: Current Practice and Future Direction-
Wednesday, January 16, 2008, 7:30 PM - 9:30 PM, Hilton Georgetown W.Charles L. Purvis, Metropolitan Transportation Commission, presiding
Findings and Recommendations of the Report Martin Wachs, RAND Corporation
Perspectives of Stakeholders Gloria Shepherd, Federal Highway AdministrationRonald T. Fisher, Federal Transit AdministrationCharles E. Howard, Puget Sound Regional CouncilDeb Miller, Kansas Department of Transportation
Proposal for a Metropolitan Planning Cooperative Research Program Michael R. Morris, North Central Texas Council of Governments
Summary of Discussion and Next Steps Martin Wachs, RAND Corporation