Available products for Seasonal forecasting J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie.

Available products forSeasonal forecasting

J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie

RA VI Web sites (1) European Centre for Medium-Range

Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) http://www.ecmwf.int/ http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/ http://www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/data

Met Office (United Kingdom) http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal/ . http://www.metoffice.com/research/seasonal/nms/

(Password-protected section for NMSs and similar organisations)

http://www.meto.govt.uk/weather/seasonal/index.html

RA VI Web sites (1) World Meteorological Centre Moscow

(WMC) http://hmc.hydromet.ru

(Password for access is to be provided on request)

Météo France http://www-int.meteo.fr/scem/cbd/dev/

(Seasonal forecasts) http://www.meteo.fr/special/CLIM/clim_model.html

(Model anomalies) ftp site (Password-protected section for NMSs, similar

organisations and specific users)

RA VI Web sites (1) World Meteorological Organisation (WMO)

http://http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/EPS-HOME/eps-home.htm#Long-range

(EPS/LRF producing centres) http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/GDPS-

Supplement5-AppI-4.html

(Definitions of forecast ranges) http://www.wmo.ch/web/www/DPS/LRF-verification-

systems.html

(Verification system for Long-range forecast)

ECMWF Products

Ocean Analysis Temperature anomaly along the equator

(ocean cross-section), Sea level anomaly, Zonal wind stress anomaly

7-day mean, updated weekly Tropical belt

Seasonal forecasts: Nino’s indices Nino 3, 3.4, 4 SST anomaly plumes

ECMWF Products

Seasonal forecasts: Forecast maps Precipitation , Temperature at 2m , Mean sea

level pressure , Sea surface temperature Ensemble mean value, Probability of below

/above various thresholds Global and sub-areas Lead time from 1 to 3 months 3-month averages, updated monthly

Met Office Products Seasonal forecasts

Temperature at 2m, Precipitations Ensemble mean value, Probability of below

/above various thresholds Global Lead time from 1 to 3 months 3-month averages, updated monthly Forecasts for some specific regions and

seasons (e.g. Sahel rainfall); winter NAO index

SST for months 2-4, 3-5, 4-6; Nino3, Nino3.4, Nino4 SST anomaly ensemble plumes to 6 months ahead (planned for 2003).

Météo-France Products Seasonal forecasts

Temperature at 850hPa, Precipitations, Geopotential Height at 500 hPa,

Ensemble mean value and significance test, Probability of below /above various thresholds

Global Lead time 1 month 3-month averages, updated monthly

Model anomalies Precipitations,Temperature and geopotential at 850

hPa and 500 hPa, Sea Level Pressure, Temperature at 2 m, Wind speed at 10 m, Humidity at 700 hPa,

Monthly, 3 and 12 overlapping monthly averages Monthly uptdated

Moscou Products Seasonal forecasts

Precipitation, Z500, MSLP, T850, T2m Ensemble mean value and characteristics of

uncertainty , Global Lead time 1 month 1 and 3-month ensemble mean, updated

monthly

Other usefull Web sites http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/ ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/cmb/Forecasts/enso http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/

index.html

http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/ http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/ http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/maproom/.Global/

The ECMWF Web site

http://www.ecmwf.int/ General public documentation public forecasts: “essential” WMO Members forecasts : “additional” Similar for Seasonal forecasts

The ECMWF Web site

The UKMO Web site http://www.metoffice.com/

Public and password protected area

The UKMO Web site

The Météo-France Web site http://www-int.meteo.fr/scem/cbd/dev/

Internal access at this stage

The Météo-France Web site

Model Climate Anomalies and Indices monthly computed for month, overlapping season and year (subjective comparison)

Web site access : http://www.meteo.fr/special/CLIM/clim_model.html

Follow-up – Climate and Model

Model Climate Anomalies and Indices

Available products for Seasonal forecasting J.P. Céron – Direction de la Climatologie.

Documents

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