Methods or Techniques of

Technological Forecasting

INTRODUCTION MIT and MIST started a collaborative research

project called “Technological Forecasting using Data Mining and Semantics” (TFDMS) Four elements of forecast require specification. “tech-mining”

Articles relating to Future-oriented Technology Analysis appearing in Web of Science

Leading FTA Journals:

Technological Forecasting & Social ChangeInternational Journal of Technology ManagementFuturesResearch--Technology ManagementAbstracts of Papers, American Chemical SocietyTechnovationJournal of Cleaner ProductionJournal of ForecastingR & D ManagementSolid State TechnologyTechnology Analysis & Strategic Management

METHODS OR TECHNIQUES

Qualitative Vs Quantitative Methods

Exploratory : 1. Technology Monitoring Having good Scanning and Intelligence System It is the process of scanning the environment

for information about the subject of forecast. “environmental scanning can be thought of as

the central input to futures research.” The sources of information are indentified and

then information is gathered, filtered, processed and structured for using forecasting.

The method is simple and give quick results. Sometimes, information overload may result in

confusion and delays. There should not be difficult and costly to

gather information.

2. Trend Analysis It uses mathematical

and statistical techniques to extent time series data in the future

Trend analysis is a broad term that encompasses economic forecasting models and techniques such as regression, exponential smoothing and growth curve fitting

3. Expert Opinion It collects opinion of chosen experts in a

particular area and arrives at a forecast This methods include forecasting or

understanding technological development via intensive consultation with subject matter experts.

Identify experts in an area exist, data are lacking and difficult to identify a model

Forecasting may be wrong when questions posed to them are ambiguous and unclear

4. Delphi Technique It was originally developed at Ran Corporation of

the USA in the late 1940s by Olaf Helmer It consist of an attempt to arrive at a consensus

in an uncertain area by questioning a group of experts repeatedly.

Leader first supplies questions to the experts who are located at different places for their response

Each expert is given the opportunity to react to the information or considerations advanced by others.

It reduces Helo Effect, Bandwagon Effect and Ego Involvement with publicity expressed opinion

5. Scenario Development A set of snapshot of some aspect of the future

situation They encompass the believable range for

chosen aspect A set on imaginative descriptions are

developed based on qualitative and quantitative data

It mixes imagination, intuition and scientific data analysis

They are most useful on forecasting and in communicating complex, highly uncertain situations to non-technical audience.

Normative : 1. Dynamic Modeling

A model is a simplified representation of some part of the real world

Models range from flow diagrams, simple equations, and scale models, to sophisticated computer simulations

Model can exhibit the future behavior of complex systems simply by isolating important system aspects from unessential details

2. Cross Impact Analysis

Researchers identify a set of key trends those with high importance or probability

If event A occurs, what will be the impact on all other trends ?

The success of the method depends on the choice of events which are related, also the ability to interpret the developments is important

3. Morphological Analysis

It was developed by the well – known Swiss astronomer wicky in his work in the field of jet engines

An attractive characteristic of morphological research is the assessment of the likelihood that a future technology will be realized ( or a square in the morphological box)

All solutions of the morphological box should be examined for their feasibility and analyzed and evaluated with respect to the purposes to be achieved

4. Series Indicators

Each company establishes favorite indices of those general economic conditions most relevant to its product/technology category.

These indices should be examined for any indicators that may affect the life of the technology

There are three general categories of indicators as given under

1. Leading Indicators

2. Simultaneous (Coincident) Indicators

3. Lagging Indictors

Choosing a Forecasting Technique

No single technique works in every situation

Two most important factors Cost Accuracy

Other factors include the availability of: Historical data Computers Time needed to gather and analyze the

data Forecast horizon

THANK YOU