METEOR 2015SYNSMASKINEN BURST NO/DK

Workshop om kriser

Bergen 16 Oktober 2015

Complexity, crises, and democratic governanceBruna De Marchi - Svt, UiBSenter for vitenskapsteori, Universitetet i Bergen Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities, University of Bergen

Acknowledgment from an Italian in Bergen

Thanks to Åse Løvgren, Frans Jaobi and Benedicte Clementsen of KHiB (Bergen Academy of Art and Design) for inviting me and offering the opportunity for a challenging new experience.

Thanks to SVT’s (Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities) director, Matthias Kaiser, colleagues, PhDs, post-docs,

and staff for providing a unique intellectual and physical space for work and thought.

Workshop announcement

• Today we live in an era that is increasingly described by ongoing crises.

Rather than being crises that occur in a specific moment of time as when

a flood or an earthquake occurs, these crises are chronic, i.e. crises that

are persistent, with consequences that affect individuals and entire

communities in fundamental ways.

• What it means to live in a time of crisis and how they manifest

themselves

CrisesNew and old.New or old?

Reinhart Koselleck, Crisis, Journal of the History of Ideas 67,2 (April) 2006, 357-400.

How do we understand and experience a crisis?

What has changed over time (and continues to change) in four strictly intertwined domains:

• the world “outside there” • our relation with/interventions in that world• our way of looking at the world and understanding it• our concepts and language

Dialogue between Nature and an Icelander

An Icelander who had travelled over most of the earth, and had

lived in very many different lands, found himself one day in the

heart of Africa. …

The Icelander saw in the distance a huge bust, … the head

belonged to an enormous woman …

The figure was alive, and had a countenance both magnificent and

terrible …

Dialogue between Nature and an Icelander (Ctd.)

WOMAN

Who art thou? What doest thou here, where thy race is

unknown?

ICELANDER

I am a poor Icelander, fleeing from Nature. I have fled

from her ever since I was a child, through a hundred

different parts of the world, and I am fleeing from her

now.

WOMAN

… I am that from which thou fleest.… ….

Dialogue between Nature and an Icelander (Ctd.)

ICELANDERI am smitten with anguish, for I consider no worse misfortune could befall me.

NATURE … But why thou shun me?…

Dialogue between Nature and an Icelander (Ctd.)

NATURE

Thinkest thou then that the world was made for thee? It is time thou

knewest that in my designs, operations, and decrees, I never gave a

thought to the happiness or unhappiness of man. If I cause you to

suffer, I am unaware of the fact; nor do I perceive that I can in any

way give you pleasure. What I do is in no sense done for your

enjoyment or benefit, as you seem to think. Finally, if I by chance

exterminated your species, I should not know it.

Dialogue between Nature and an Icelander (Ctd.)

ICELANDER

I am well aware you did not make the world for the service of men.

It were easier to believe that you made it expressly as a place of

torment for them. But tell me: why am I here at all? …

NATURE

Thou forgettest that the life of the world is a perpetual cycle of

production and destruction, so combined that the one works for

the good of the other. By their joint operation the universe is

preserved. If either ceased, the world would dissolve. …

Giacomo Leopardi (1798 -1837)“Dialogo della Natura e di un Islandese”Operette Morali, (Small Moral works) 1824

English translation by Charles Edwardes

http://digilander.libero.it/testi_di_leopardi/translate_english/leopardi_dialogue_between_nature_and_a_icelander.html

Iceland as just an example (from Wikipedia)The Black Death swept Iceland twice, first in 1402–04 and again in 1494–95.The former outbreak killed 50% to 60% of the population, and the latter 30% to 50%.

In the 17th and 18th centuries … natural disasters, including volcanic eruption and disease, contributed to a decreasing population. Pirates from several countries … raided its coastal settlements and abducted people into slavery.

A great smallpox epidemic in the 18th century killed around a third of the population.

In 1783 the Laki volcano erupted, with devastating effects. In the years following the eruption, known as the Mist Hardships (Icelandic: Móðuharðindin), over half of all livestock died in the country. Around a quarter of the population died in the ensuing famine.

VISIONS AND HOPES FROM THE PAST(MORE OR LESS RECENT)

Francis Bacon (1561-1626)The New Atlantis (posthumous 1627)Wonders of nature• The prolongation of life.• The retardation of age.• The curing of diseases counted

incurable.• The altering of complexions, and

fatness and leanness.• Versions of bodies into other bodies.• Making of new species.• Instruments of destruction, as of war

and poison.• Drawing of new foods out of

substances not now in use.• ….

The New Atlantis (unfinished and posthumously published 1627

René Descartes (1596-1650)

… we should develop practical

knowledge (philosophy) in order

to become «masters and

posessors of nature » (maîtres et

possesseurs de la nature).

Discours de la méthode (1637)

The Lisbon earthquake, 1755

The earthquake occurred on 1 November 1755, All Saints Day, and was followed by fires and tsunami, which destroyed Lisbon and surroundings almost totally. Most credible estimates range from 10,000 to 60,000 causalities. Notice of the event reached other parts of Europe and the world days, weeks, and even months later.A debate originated between scholars, philosophers and intellectuals. Why God (if there is one) permits evil? Why the earthquake? Why Lisbon? Why some people and not other died? … Why many religious buildings collapsed whilst many brothels remained standing? …

Philosophical debate following the 1755 Lisbon earthquake

Voltaire (François-Marie Arouet) (1694-1778)

Jean-Jacques Rousseau (1712-1778)

Voltaire (1694-1778) Le Poeme sur le Desastre de Lisbonne en 1755

One-hundred thousand unfortunates devoured by the earth

Who, bleeding, lacerated, and still alive,

Buried under their roofs without aid in their anguish,

End their sad days!

In answer to the half-formed cries of their dying voices,

At the frightful sight of their smoking ashes,

Will you say: "This is result of eternal laws

Directing the acts of a free and good God!"

Will you say, in seeing this mass of victims:

"God is revenged, their death is the price for their crimes?“

What crime, what error did these children,

Crushed and bloody on their mothers' breasts, commit?

Did Lisbon, which is no more, have more vices

Than London and Paris immersed in their pleasures?

Lisbon is destroyed, and they dance in Paris!

Oh, miserable mortals! Oh wretched earth!

Oh, dreadful assembly of all mankind!

Eternal sermon of useless sufferings!

Deluded philosophers who cry, "All is well,"

Hasten, contemplate these frightful ruins,

This wreck, these shreds, these wretched ashes of the dead;

These women and children heaped on one another,

These scattered members under broken marble;

Rousseau's Letter to Voltaire Regarding the Poem on the Lisbon Earthquake, August 18, 1756

I do not see how one can search for the source of moral evil anywhere but in man.... Moreover ... the majority of our physical misfortunes are also our work. Without leaving your Lisbon subject, concede, for example, that it was hardly nature that there brought together twenty-thousand houses of six or seven stories. If the residents of this large city had been more evenly dispersed and less densely housed, the losses would have been fewer or perhaps none at all. Everyone would have fled at the first shock. But many obstinately remained . . . to expose themselves to additional earth tremors because what they would have had to leave behind was worth more than what they could carry away. How many unfortunates perished in this disaster through the desire to fetch their clothing, papers, or money? . . .

• …. largely increased populations? …. a time when the number of people has outgrown the natural resources that nature can supply? ….then there will be fight for the resources, war between people?

• Technological progress may bring the answers.

• People’s ethics and morality will progress alongside reason.

Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, marquis de Condorcet Nicolas de Condorcet (1743 – 1794)Esquisse d'un tableau historique des progrès de l'esprit humain [1795]

The Crystal Palace Exhibition (The Great Exhibition of the Works of Industry of all Nations) London 1851 (First World Expo ever, during Queen Victoria’S reign, 1837-1901)

Beginning of the XX Century (1909 -)

Where are we and

Where are we going

For millennia our species …… has not only adapted to the environment, but progressively changed it. (Some) main steps:• The agricultural revolution (possibly some 12,000 years ago)• The scientific revolution (from the XVI century)• The industrial revolution of the XIX century • Growing and ever faster development of technology• The wars of the XX century • The industrialization of science• …

We are now ready to modify our own biology Heidi Ledford, “The landscape for human genome editing”, Nature 526, 15/10/2015, pp.

310-311.

Now we know!Human activities cause/contribute to:

• Environmental pollution• Nuclear accidents• Toxic spills• Climate change • Endocrine disruptions• Food induced diseases• ….• Floods• Earthquakes• ….

FRACKINGInformation from a poster exposed at the Bergen Natural History Museum (visited Sept, 1, 2013)

• A magnitude 5 seismic event occurred on 7 May 2001 in the Ekofisk oil field in the North Sea.

• It was induced by water injection in the field, a procedure used in the operations for oil extraction.

• Ekofisk is one of the most important oil fields in the North Sea. It is located in the Norwegian sector of the North Sea about 320 km southwest of Stavanger. It was discovered in 1969 by Phillips Petroleum Company, which started producing oil in 1971 from four subsea wells.

Present Hazards (Present Crisis)

“Urban hazards and disasters are becoming an interactive mix of natural, technological, and social events.”

James, K. Mitchell, (ed.) Crucibles of Hazard: Megacities and disasters in transition. Tokyo: United Nations University Press, 1999, p. 484

XX Century new awareness

Charles Perrow (Normal Accidents, 1984)

“The odd term normal accident is meant to signal that, given the system characteristics [complexity and tight coupling], multiple and unexpected interactions of failures are inevitable. … System accidents are uncommon, even rare; yet this is not at all reassuring, if they can produce catastrophes.” (p.5)

Paul Virilio (born 1932)

Any technology brings with it the potential for accidents.

Crisis and disaster management: a classic approach

• Prevention• Preparation • Response • Recovery (back to “normal”)

Crisis and disaster management

…BUT

Uncertainty, complexity, tight coupling, non linearity, path dependence, type

and speed of transport and information means, temporal and physical

distance between origin and consequences, …

Is it possible to plan for the unexpected?Be prepared for surprise! (the Black Swan)

Rene’ Descartes Philosopher, France (1637)

We should develop practical knowledge (philosophy) in order to become « masters and posessors of nature » (maîtres et possesseurs de la nature).

Olafur Grimsson President of Iceland (2010)

“In modern societies … there has been a belief that the forces of nature can't impact the functioning of technologically advanced societies. But, in Iceland, we learn from childhood that forces of nature are stronger than ourselves, and they remind us who are the masters of the universe.“

373 Years apart

Danger and Risk

Notion of danger exists in all societies.

Notion of risk typical of modern societies where danger is translated into quantitative risk, assessed and controlled by technical and professional «expert systems».

Antony Giddens The Consequences of Modernity, Cambridge, Polity, 1990

Are science and technology the (only) answers?

“… The world of logical and allegedly experimental reasons, as

nineteen-century science bequeathed it to us, is in immense

dispute. The very method of knowledge is suspect.

The equation has been formulated by skipping over the unknowns

and assuming a part of the problem to have been solved.

In the end, it will be officially recognised that reality as we have

baptized it is a greater illusion than the dream world.” (p.152)

Salvador Dalí & André Perinaud, Comme On devient Dalí , Editions Robert Laffont, S.A., Paris, 1973. (English translation: Maniac Eyeball. The Unspeakable Confessions of Salvador Dalí, Creation Books, 2004)

Daddy Longlegs of the Evening–Hope! 1940

Tentative reformulation of the original question of this Workshop on crises

From:

What does it mean to live in a time of ongoing, chronic, persistent crises?

To:

What does it mean to live in a time when we are aware that crises are

ongoing, chronic, persistent, and (co)generated by ourselves?

But:

Are we really aware?

Some (just some) contemporary scholars I owe toKW: Risk, Uncertainty, Complexity, Probability, Ethics, …

Around the world

• Jerry Ravetz• Antony Giddens • Alice Benessia• Ulrich Beck • Charles Perrow• Mary Douglas • Ian Hacking• Sheila Jasanoff• Brian Wynne• …

In Bergen

• Ragnar Fjelland, • Matthias Kaiser• Roger Strand • Jeroen van der Sluijs• Kjetil Rommetveit• Silvio Funtowicz• Andrea Saltelli• ….