Mesoscale patterns of long-term precipitation variability · PDF fileMesoscale patterns of...

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 1

Mesoscale patterns of long-termprecipitation variability in the

“Greater Alpine Region”

Reinhard Böhm1, Ingeborg Auer1, Markus Ungersböck1, Wolfgang Schöner1, Corinna Huhle2, Teresa Nanni3, Michele Brunetti3, Maurizio Maugeri4, Luca Mercalli5, Marjana Gajic-Capka6, KsenijaZaninovic6, Sandor Szalai7, Tamas Szentimrey7, Tanja Cegnar8, Oliver Bochnicek9, Michael Begert10, Olivier Mestre11, Jean-Marc Moisselin11, Gerhard Müller-Westermeier12, Zeljko Majstorovic13


mainly involved institutes

1 ZAMG, Wien 2 IMG-Uni-Wien3 Istituto ISAO, CNR, Bologna

4 Uni-Milano, Istituto di Fisica Generale Applicata5 SMI, Torino 6 DHZ, Zagreb

7 HMS, Budapest 8 HMZS, Ljubljana9 SHMU, Bratislava 10 Meteo Schweiz, Zürich11 Météo France, Toulouse 12 DWD, Offenbach

13 FMZ, Sarajewo


THE STORY BEHIND – 1: PROJECTS


THE STORY BEHIND - 2: DATA-SOURCES - DIGITAL

• ZAMG (complete series, most of them already homogenised)• Meteo Swiss (post 1900)• DWD (post WW-II mainly)• Météo France (complete series, some already homogenised)• Italian data collected by CNR-Bologna (complete series)• Italian data collected by SMI-Torino (complete series)• HMZS, Ljubljana (complete series)• DHZ, Zagreb (mostly complete series)• FMZ, Sarajewo (post WW-II series)• HMS, Budapest (some complete series)• SHMU, Bratislava (homogenised series)• Masarik University, Brno (complete series)• Hydr. Amt d. Autonom. Provinz Bozen (complete series)


THE STORY BEHIND - 3: DATA+METADATA-SOURCES – YEARBOOKS

• Annales du Bureau Central Met. De France (1898- )• Meteorologia Italiana (1866- )• Annali del Ufficio Centrale di Met. E Geof. Ital. (1911- )• Rivista di Met. Aeronautica (1950- )• Met. Beobacht. Elsass-Lothringen (1890- )• Annales de l‘Inst. de Phys. du Globe (Alsace) (1935- )• Schweizer. Met. Beobachtungen (1864- )• Jber. d. met. Centralstation in Baden (1869- )• Würtenberg. Beobachtungen (1867- )• Beobacht. d. met. Stationen im Kgr. Bayern (1879- )• Met. es Föld. Magy. Kir. Köz. Intezet Evkönyvei (1971-)• Met. Beobacht. In Bosnien u. Herzegovina (1892-1913)• Meteoroloski Godisnjak Jugosl. II (Padavine) (1951- )• Jahrb. D. KK. Central-Anstalt f. Met. U. Erdmagnet. (1848- )


THE STORY BEHIND - 4: DATA+METADATA-SOURCES IN

MULTI-ANNUAL SUMMARIES • TOO MANY TO BE SHOWN HERE• 2 examples for all:• Maurer, Billwiller, Heß, 1909: Das Klima der

Schweiz (1864-1900)• Attmannspacher, 1981: 200 Jahre met.

Beobacht. auf dem Hohenpeißenberg 1781-1980

• Summaries usually are a valuable meta datasource and a time saving source for digitising


THE STORY BEHIND - 5: VERSION 2002 vs. VERSION 2003

• Since then:• Complete re-analysis: • 1) a revised HOCLIS

system• 2) more data• 3) additional outlier

tests based on GIS supported spatialcomparisons

• July 2002: • GAR-precip dataset

ready for use• (136 series,

homogenised withoriginal HOCLIS system)

• but• serious problems with

outliers!


to 1: revised HOCLIS homogenising system:

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

JAN

FEB

MAR AP

RM

AY JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OC

TN

OV

DEC

old system:monthly adjustment factors

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

JAN

FEB

MAR AP

RM

AY JUN

JUL

AUG

SEP

OC

TN

OV

DEC

new system:7-months Gaussian smoothing

of adjustment factors

Plus several programme-improvements for quicker and more easy handling


For both versions in common:testing and adjusting in regional subgroups

(to avoid long-distance signal transport)

35 subgroups of 4 to 12 series – no a priori reference series!

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 10

For both versions in common:intensive use of meta data information

example 1: Pula – Pola (Croatia)

kk. Hydrographisches Amt: 2 sites• the result of the rooftop installation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

JAN

FEB

MAR AP

R

MAY JU

N

JUL

AUG

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

14.5

m/1

.3m

(%

)

Comparison of mean monthly precipitationPula (HR) 1873-1897:

rooftop (14.5m) versus 1.3m near to ground

parallel measurements 1873-1897tower (14.5m above ground)

near to ground (1.3m above ground)

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 11

example 2: Hohenpeißenberg (Germany)

Rooftop-installation 1781-1878the result of the rooftop-installation

the result of the homogenisation of HOP-old

tow

er (2

2m) v

s. "n

ear t

o gr

ound

" (%

)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

r

Mai

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Comparison of mean monthly precipitation Hohenpeissenberg (DE):

tower (22m) versus near to ground installation

old: 1800-1878 new: 1879-2002

(reduced to 1800-1878 according to S-German mean)200

500

800

1100

1400

1700

1800

1810

1820

1830

1840

1850

1860

1870

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

1 to 12 1 to 12

HOP - annual precip series (mm)homogenised (green) vs. original (red)

old new

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 12

Example 3: Admont (Austria)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

JAN

FEB

MAR AP

R

MAY JU

N

JUL

AUG

SEP

OC

T

NO

V

DEC

Systematic overcatch of mean monthly precipitation in Admont (AT) since May 1991

Most probable reason: sprinkling water and drifting snow

from surrounding obstacles

Strong overcatch due to sprinkling water and driftingsnow from nearby obstactles

(Calculated through comparison with a site in the same village)

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 13

to 2) more data:new series (136 -> 192) and

several series completed by early data

blue: version 2002, red: additional earlier data, yellow: additional series

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 14

Temporal evolution of the GAR-precipdataset - version 2003

020406080

100120140160180200

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

num

ber o

f ser

ies

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

mea

n di

stan

ce (k

m)

1800: 381km

1840: 153km

1820: 201km

since 1927: 61km

1900: 63km

1880: 74km

1860: 113km

• Number of series• mean station distance

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 15

Network in the year 1820

18 sites mean distance: 208 km

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 16



ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 17



ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 18



ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 19

Network 1927 - 2002


ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 20

to 3) outlier tests• already performed for (version 2002):• Excessive precipitation months (EPMs)• Dry months (DMs)

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 21

Status of the 2003-version:• All 192 series homogenised (last week):

covering 724.000 km2 (7% of Europe)covering 2 centuries

Still to be done:Outlier tests:

for the new series of the 2003-versionfor all months (not only for EPMs and DMs)

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 22

OUTLOOK AT EXPECTED RESULTS

• There is a high probability for:

• The existence of a large scale systematic precip.-oszillation in the GAR („Alpine Precipitation Dipole“)

• A reasonable feasibility for the use of the datasetalso for certain extreme event studies

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 23

the „Alpine Precipitation-Dipol“ (APD)(based on version 2002)

49NW

47

45SE

43

14 17Alpine precipitation dipole

5 8 11

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1805

1815

1825

1835

1845

1855

1865

1875

1885

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

central years of decades

% o

f 20t

h ce

ntur

y m

ean

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 24

Some series from the dipole:

NWSE

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

STRASBOURG ODEREN AUGSBURGNEUCHATEL CHAUMONT

mm

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

1500

1700

1900

2100

2300

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

UDINE TRIESTE HVAR SARAJEVO BUDAPEST

mm

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 25

Decadal time series ofExcessive precipitation months (EPMs)

average summaximum areamaximum sumof an EPM

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

decades

mea

n su

m o

f an

EPM

(mm

)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

decades

max

imum

ext

ensi

on o

f an

EPM

(% o

f GAR

)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1840 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991

decades

peak

val

ue w

ithin

an

EPM

(mm

)

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 26

Outstanding single events:

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1800

1820

1840

1860

1880

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

LINZ FREISTADT ZWETTL

mm

August 2002

Kamp (Lower Austria), August 2002 Foto: NÖ. Zivilschutz Verb.

ICAM-MAP/Brig, 2003-05-23 27

More about it during the next 3 Years

Multi-centennial climate variability in the ALPs

based on Instrumental data,

Model simulations andProxy data

• On our projecthomepage „ALP-IMP“:

• via

• http://www.zamg.ac.at

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