MESOSCALE MODELING FOR AIR QUALITY FORECASTING

by

ROBERT D. BORNSTEINDEPT. OF METEOROLOGY

SAN JOSE STATE UNIVERSITYSAN JOSE, CA USA

pblmodel@hotmail.com

Prepared for FORUM ON:

CHALLENGES IN URBAN METEOROLOGYROCKVILLE, MD

21-23 SEPT 2004

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

• CO WORKERS

• H. Taha, ALTOSTRATUS, SJSU• R. Balmori, SJSU• J. Ching and S. Dupont, EPS/RTP• S. Burian, Univ of Utah• S. Stetson, SWS, Inc.• D. Byan, Univ of Houston•J. Allwine, DHS• M. Reynolds, BNL

• FUNDING AGENCIES

DHS, USAID, State of Texas, LBNL, NSF

OUTLINEOUTLINE• ISSUES INISSUES IN

– URBAN CLIMATEURBAN CLIMATE– URBAN WEATHERURBAN WEATHER– URBAN AIR QUALITYURBAN AIR QUALITY– GLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTSGLOBAL CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS

• REQUIRED RESEARCHREQUIRED RESEARCH– FIELD STUDIESFIELD STUDIES– THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENTTHEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT– MODEL DEVELOPMENTMODEL DEVELOPMENT

Scales in an Urban Scales in an Urban EnvironmentEnvironment

OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS: URBAN OBSERVATIONAL NEEDS: URBAN CLIMATECLIMATE• URBAN PBLURBAN PBL

– ROUGHNESS DECELERATION VS UHI ACCELERATIONROUGHNESS DECELERATION VS UHI ACCELERATION– UHI CONFLUENCE VS BARRIER DIFLUENCEUHI CONFLUENCE VS BARRIER DIFLUENCE– RA FLUX DIV FROM AEROSOLSRA FLUX DIV FROM AEROSOLS

• ROUGHNESS SUB-LAYERROUGHNESS SUB-LAYER– UU** AS f (z) AS f (z)– PROFILERS FROM: SODARS, LIDARS, RADARS, RASSPROFILERS FROM: SODARS, LIDARS, RADARS, RASS

• URBAN CANYON LAYERURBAN CANYON LAYER– LINKAGE B/T ROOFTOP AND CANYON FLOWSLINKAGE B/T ROOFTOP AND CANYON FLOWS– STACKED ASYMMETRIC VORTICIESSTACKED ASYMMETRIC VORTICIES– WALL INDUCED VERTICAL VELOCITIES WALL INDUCED VERTICAL VELOCITIES

• URBAN SURFACE RS/GIS DATA BASES FORURBAN SURFACE RS/GIS DATA BASES FOR – LU/LCLU/LC– SOIL MOSITURE: UHI VS UCISOIL MOSITURE: UHI VS UCI– ALBEDO, ROUGHNESS, EMISSIVITYALBEDO, ROUGHNESS, EMISSIVITY– 3-D UHI ON ALL SFCS 3-D UHI ON ALL SFCS

Incorporate Stetson’s high- Incorporate Stetson’s high- resolution Houston zresolution Houston zoo data data

URBAN MESO-MODELINGURBAN MESO-MODELING• URBANIZED MESO-MET MODELSURBANIZED MESO-MET MODELS

– AEROSOLS AND RFDAEROSOLS AND RFD– PBL EQUATIONS WITH DRAG TERMSPBL EQUATIONS WITH DRAG TERMS– SFC ENERGY AND MOISTURE BALANCESSFC ENERGY AND MOISTURE BALANCES– MM5 MM5 WRF WRF

• ROUGHNESS SUBLAYER MODELSROUGHNESS SUBLAYER MODELS– REPLACE MONIN-OBUKHOV THEORYREPLACE MONIN-OBUKHOV THEORY– LOWER B.C. FLUXES FROM CANYON LOWER B.C. FLUXES FROM CANYON

MODELSMODELS

• SST (x, y, t) from ocean modelsSST (x, y, t) from ocean models

From Masson (2000)

1 km uMM5 end of daytime 1 km uMM5 end of daytime ΔΔUHI: 8 PM 21 UHI: 8 PM 21 AugAug

Upper L: MM5Upper L: MM5

Upper R: uMM5Upper R: uMM5

Lower L: uMM5-Lower L: uMM5-MM5MM5

uMM5uMM5 1.5 K 1.5 K warmerwarmer

Blob is LU/LC errorBlob is LU/LC error

URBAN EFFECTS ON URBAN EFFECTS ON WEATHERWEATHER• SEA BREEZE FLOWSSEA BREEZE FLOWS

– RETARDED MOVEMENTRETARDED MOVEMENT

• SYNOPTIC FRONTSSYNOPTIC FRONTS– RETARDED MOVEMENTRETARDED MOVEMENT

• THUNDERSTORMSTHUNDERSTORMS– UHI INITIATION VS. BARRIER SPLITTINGUHI INITIATION VS. BARRIER SPLITTING– PREVIOUS: METROMEX, NYC, AND ATLANTAPREVIOUS: METROMEX, NYC, AND ATLANTA– AEROSOL MODIFICATIONSAEROSOL MODIFICATIONS– PROJECT HEAT STUDYPROJECT HEAT STUDY

• OBS AND MESO-MODELS REQUIREDOBS AND MESO-MODELS REQUIRED

MM5 section of potential T and w through strongest UHI-induced updraft at 1700 UTC. Max w is 4.3 m/s.

URBAN-SCALE AIR QUALITYURBAN-SCALE AIR QUALITY

• OZONE AIR QUALITYOZONE AIR QUALITY– EMISSIONSEMISSIONS– URBAN EFFECTS ON DISPERSIONURBAN EFFECTS ON DISPERSION– MEOS-SCALE NETWORKSMEOS-SCALE NETWORKS

• PM2.5PM2.5– SUMMER PHOTOCHEMISTRYSUMMER PHOTOCHEMISTRY– WINTER COMBUSTIONWINTER COMBUSTION

• DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONSDURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATE TYPESIN ALL CLIMATE TYPES– OBSOBS– MESO-MODELSMESO-MODELS

URBAN-CANYON MODELINGURBAN-CANYON MODELING• CANYON SCALE NUMERICAL MODELSCANYON SCALE NUMERICAL MODELS

– FOR ER APPLICATIONSFOR ER APPLICATIONS– BOTH CFD AND REAL-TIMEBOTH CFD AND REAL-TIME

• WIND TUNNEL MODELS PROVIDEWIND TUNNEL MODELS PROVIDE– COMPARISON DATACOMPARISON DATA– PARAMETERIZATION GUIDANCEPARAMETERIZATION GUIDANCE

• 2-WAY LINKED MESO & CANYON 2-WAY LINKED MESO & CANYON SCALE MODELSSCALE MODELS

– FOR ER APPLICATIONSFOR ER APPLICATIONS– NEED TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION PROCESSESNEED TRANSPORT AND DIFFUSION PROCESSES

• 2-WAY LINKED INDOOR & OUTDOOR 2-WAY LINKED INDOOR & OUTDOOR MODELSMODELS– ER APPLICATIONSER APPLICATIONS– TRUE DOSAGE CALCULATIONSTRUE DOSAGE CALCULATIONS

This and next three are from A. HUBER, EPA/RTP

from EPA/RTP WIND TUNNEL

ER AIR-QUALITYER AIR-QUALITY

• ER PLANNING FORER PLANNING FOR– ACCIDENTAL RELEASESACCIDENTAL RELEASES– TERRORIST RELEASESTERRORIST RELEASES

• ER PLANNING: NEEDSER PLANNING: NEEDS– TRACER STUDIES TRACER STUDIES (URBAN 2000, JOINT URBAN, DHS/UDS/ (URBAN 2000, JOINT URBAN, DHS/UDS/

NYC)NYC)– SECURE DATA-COMMUNICATIONSSECURE DATA-COMMUNICATIONS– MULTISCALE MODELS (SYNOPTIC, MESO, CANYON, MULTISCALE MODELS (SYNOPTIC, MESO, CANYON,

INDOOR)INDOOR)– UNDERSTANDABLE DATA DISPLAY FOR RESPONERSUNDERSTANDABLE DATA DISPLAY FOR RESPONERS

• DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL DURING ALL WEATHER CONDITIONS IN ALL CLIMATESCLIMATES

QUIC Simulation with dd = 215 deg (from M. Brown, LANL)

wind vectors at 5 m height

from LBNL

URBAN IMPACTS FROM GLOBAL URBAN IMPACTS FROM GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE

• URBAN POLLUTANT EMISSIONSURBAN POLLUTANT EMISSIONS– SOURCES FOR GLOBAL CONTAMINATIONSOURCES FOR GLOBAL CONTAMINATION– CLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED TRENDSCLIMATE CHANGE INDUCED TRENDS

• INCREASED URBAN THERMAL-STRESS MORTALITY INCREASED URBAN THERMAL-STRESS MORTALITY (COLUMBIA/GISS, U of H, & PSU PROJECTS)(COLUMBIA/GISS, U of H, & PSU PROJECTS)

• CHANGES IN CHANGES IN – WINTER AND SUMMER STORM TRACKSWINTER AND SUMMER STORM TRACKS– URBAN PRECIP URBAN PRECIP – URBAN FLOODINGURBAN FLOODING

• LITTLE COMMUNICATION B/T RESEARCH GROUPS LITTLE COMMUNICATION B/T RESEARCH GROUPS – GLOBAL CHANGE GLOBAL CHANGE – URBAN CLIMATE URBAN CLIMATE

NYC OBS REFERENCESNYC OBS REFERENCES

• Bornstein 1968: Bornstein 1968: J. Appl. Met.., J. Appl. Met.., 7., 575-82.7., 575-82.• Born. & Johnson 1977: Born. & Johnson 1977: At. Env.,At. Env., 11, 597-04 11, 597-04• Loose & Born. 1977: Loose & Born. 1977: MWR,MWR, 105, 567-71. 105, 567-71.• Born. & Thompson, 1981: Born. & Thompson, 1981: JAMJAM, 20, 843-58, 20, 843-58• Gaffen & Born. 1988: Gaffen & Born. 1988: Met. and Atmos. Met. and Atmos.

PhysPhys, 38, 38,, 185‑94 185‑94• Born.1987: Born.1987: Modeling the Urban BL,Modeling the Urban BL, AMS, AMS,

53‑93. 53‑93.