The future:

Megatrends and people

Jesper Bo Jensen, ph.d.

Futurist

Centre for Future Studieshttp://uk.fremforsk.dk/

Cities in the future

The interweaved city – a

mixture of functions

The company without office

space

The new nomads travelling

from oasis to oasis

The work day and leisure

day as a long fractal route

The networked person:

The new nomads

Observed in airport lounges, on fast inner-city

trains and motorway service station always on

the move

Juggling with a laptop computer, a smartphone

and a mega size iPad

In touch with people, he or she do no longer

regularly bump into in a corridor

Take decisions all the time guided by the

knowledge base they have access to

New era new Zeistgeist:

Futurisme

From Retro – knitting, baking, growing your own

herbs and vegetables since 2008

To Futurisme:

New thinking and perspective

New optimism

Belief in the future

New digital structures and new technology will

give growth and prosperity in society and in

companies in the future

Population in

cities or suburban areas in billions

1970 1990 2005 2015 2030

World 1.160 2.280 3.170 3.860 4.990

Asia

China

480

144

1.010

320

1.550

530

1.980

690

2.660

870

US 170 210 270 300 350

Europe 410 520 530 540 550

Moore than 7 billion

people

The new

middle classes

approx. 2,5 billions

Africa

US

India

China

Vietnam

Thailand

EU (East)

Turkey

Mexico

East-Afrika

The growing Global

Middle Class 2030

Source : OECD – Homi Kharas

Revitalizing cities

Gentrification – old city centers and old industrial

quarters being changed to attractive city appartments

for young urban professionals

Manhattan, Brooklyn, Berlin, London, Lyon,

Copenhagen, Stockholm, Oslo……..etc

Young families tend to stay in the city with their children

becoming a part of the revival process of modern bigger

cities

Infrastructural renewal of water supply, heating and

sewers

New tendency: Revitalizing the suburban centers

Wearables – already i

many forms and shapes

…Self driving Trucks and

Lorries75% of all vehicles automatic in 2040 (Wired)

The digital revolution

version 3.0

• We are in the middle of a real digital revolution

that changes the way we work, produce and

communicate in a new digital society

• Digital structure and software has become a

basic part of peoples lives and public and

privates companies

• A essential infrastructure in daily life like water

and electricity

• Your chances of succeeding depends very

much on your digital capacity

New Technology

Three steps

A: Doing the old in at new way

Combustion engine instead of a steam engine

Computers calculating large mathematic formulas

B: Doing something new that was prior not possible

Word processers, PC, spreadsheet, photos, the Internet,

video, automation, production robots

C: Society change

Suburbs, New distribution of the manufacturing process,

Globalization

Robots – artificial intelligence, 3D printers, New ways of

manufacturing

THE PRICE OF OILDependency of uconventional oil

and shale gas

The world population:

Changing shape

The world economy will

continue to grow

World Trade grows faster

than World GNP

Sources: MIRAGE database / World Bank database, UNCTAD, IMF WEO database

New criticism

r > g

The rate of return on capital is generally

higher than the rate of economic growth

“Capital” is built on more than a decade of

research by Mr Piketty.

The evolution of inequality since the beginning

of the industrial revolution.

Private wealth dwarfed national income. Only

the chaos of the first and second world wars

and the Depression disrupted this pattern.

But the shocks of the early 20th century have

faded and wealth is now reasserting itself.

Recycling

and cradle to cradle

Coming to a city near you!

Green roofs and green walls

But the real interesting idea is the reuse of

buildings be reusing all the materials from a

demolished building

Concrete is not CO2 neutral – so reuse can

“green” the image of concrete

It makes the building process in inner cities

more demanding and complicated

WHO EATS WHO?

Listen to Darwin:

Survival of the Fittest

Size is not important and it is not always good to be fast

Managers plays a vital role in keeping the company fit

Jesper Bo Jensen

Fremforsk

- centre for future studies

Balticagade 15, st. th.

8000 Århus C

E jbj@fremforsk.dk

T 86 11 47 44

M 20 67 45 00

uk.fremforsk.dk