Megatrends and

Innovating Towards Zero

W.F. W.F. KeeKee, Industry Manager, Industry Manager

Mar 15th, 2012

W.F. W.F. KeeKee, Industry Manager, Industry Manager

Technical Insights Group, Frost & SullivanTechnical Insights Group, Frost & Sullivan

Climate Change: Is It Happening ?11

22

33

Introduction to Megatrends

Megatrend 1: Low Carbon Economy

Content

2

44 Megatrend 2: SMART Cities and SMART Infrastructure

55 Megatrend 3: Innovating to Zero !

Climate Change: Is it Happening?

3

Fact 1: Current CO2 emissions in the atmosphere are reaching

concentrations of 393 ppm (parts per million), the highest it’s been for

the last 800,000 years.

Climate Change

Fact 2: Earth’s climate has changed radically in recent years, with the

last decade (2001 to 2010) having some of the hottest years on record.

4

Question: The scientific consensus on climate change is that it is

largely irreversible. Is this true?

The Greenhouse Effect

5

Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Higher Levels of CO2

6

Sources of CO2

Global GHG emissions have grown since pre-industrial times, with an increase of 70%

between 1970 and 2004. Carbon dioxide is the larger contributor

7

Source: United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2009

Extreme climate?

8

Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Increasing Sea Levels

9

Key Technologies for Reducing CO2 Emissions

10

Source: IEA, 2011

Introduction to Megatrends

11

Definition of a Mega Trend

What is a Mega Trend?

• Mega trends are global, sustained and macro economic forces of development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining our future world and its increasing pace of change.

Definition: Impact of Mega Trends on Key

Organizational Functions

Marketing

R&D Innovatio

12

change.

• Mega trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies and individuals. Analysis of these mega trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.

R&D Budget Spending

Product Planning and

Develop-ment

Technology Planning

Innovation Scouting

Why Do Mega Trends Matter?

SMART Cities and

SMART Infrastructure

2

Summary of Megatrends

13

Innovating toward

Zero!

Low Carbon

Economy

1 3

Megatrend 1: Low Carbon Economy

14

Drivers for a Low Carbon Economy

15

Technologies and Services

Fuels &

Feedstocks

Alternative/

Renewables

Emission

Reduction

Energy

Efficiency

• Clean fuels

• Biofuels

• Hydrogen

• Biomass

• Waste to Energy

• Wind power

• Solar

• Biomass

• Fuel cells

• Energy storage

• Hydro

• Advanced turbines

• Air pollution control

• Coal to gas

• Clean coal

• Carbon capture &

• Green buildings

• Low energy

appliances

• Building control

products

• Smart meters &

Energy

Efficiency &

Renewables

Energy Efficiency Technology and Services Segments

Supply-side End-of-pipeSolutions Demand-side

16

• Waste to Energy • Hydro

• Wave, tidal

• Geothermal

• Carbon capture &

storage• Smart meters &

grids

• Smart homes

• Energy management

Renewables

• Biodiesel• Ethanol• Dual fuel systems• District Heating & Cooling

• Fuel cell vehicles

• Public Outdoor

Lighting

• Grid Monitoring

• Electric vehicles

• Hybrid vehicles

• Power quality

monitoring

• Mass transportation

• Vehicle efficiency

technology

Urban

Infrastructure &

Transportation

Environment

& Clean-Tech

• Bio solids

• Bio wastes

• Gasification

• Anaerobic digestion

• Biogas

• Pyrolysis

• Air filtration

• VOC control

• Water & wastewater

treatment

• Waste management

• Waste to energy

• Water recycling

• Energy recovery

• Waste recycling

• Desalination

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Case Study: ‘SMART’ Buildings in 2020

Green BuildingsGreen Buildings Intelligent BuildingsIntelligent Buildings

17

Implications and OpportunitiesImplications and Opportunities

• A smart and green building can conserve resources, use energy efficiently and create healthy occupied

environments

• This type of convergence will promote highly adaptable, sustainable and cost-effective buildings.

• Better monitoring and control of energy-intensive systems such as HVAC and lighting

• Opportunities: building automation systems, energy efficient lighting, green HVAC systems, integrated

security solutions

• A smart and green building can conserve resources, use energy efficiently and create healthy occupied

environments

• This type of convergence will promote highly adaptable, sustainable and cost-effective buildings.

• Better monitoring and control of energy-intensive systems such as HVAC and lighting

• Opportunities: building automation systems, energy efficient lighting, green HVAC systems, integrated

security solutions

M65B-18

Case Study: Integration between Buildings and Grids

Building Automation

� Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)

facilitates 2-way communication

� Offices, hospitals selling excess energy back

to grid

� Demand response; energy use can be shifted

to off-peak hours

� Advanced metering infrastructure (AMI)

facilitates 2-way communication

� Offices, hospitals selling excess energy back

to grid

� Demand response; energy use can be shifted

to off-peak hours

� Fully networked systems that integrate data,

voice and video with security, HVAC, lighting

and other controls on a single IP-network

platform

� Conserve resources such as energy and

water, reduce emissions, and decrease waste

� Fully networked systems that integrate data,

voice and video with security, HVAC, lighting

and other controls on a single IP-network

platform

� Conserve resources such as energy and

water, reduce emissions, and decrease waste

Transformation of Conventional

Grid to Energy Internet (Smart Grid)

Transformation of Conventional

Buildings to Integrated Buildings

18

Building Automation

Controls and Software,

Wireless Sensors,

Demand Response

M65B-18

Case Study: Low Carbon Economy in the Chemicals Industry

19

Case Study: Dow Chemicals

20

Megatrend 2: SMART Cities and SMART

Infrastructure

21

Concept of SMART City

‘S”

Governance

‘S’ City

Planning

‘S’ Business‘S’ Citizen

‘S’ Buildings

Smart Diamond to define Smart citySmart Diamond to define Smart city

Smart Cities Smart Cities �� Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility

22

‘S’ Energy

‘S’ ICT

‘S’ Mobility

These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’

Mobility of the future

City’s InfrastructureLegend: City’s User community City’s Green Ecology

‘S’ Energy� Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure

‘S‘ City Planning � EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging

‘S’ Information Communication & Technology � Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies

Source: Frost & Sullivan

“Green” to be Replaced with “Smart”

Smart CitiesSmart

Technology

Smart

Infrastructure

Smart

Hospitals

Smart MobilitySmart

BuildingsSmart Grids Smart Clouds

23

Smart

Materials

Smart

BandagesSmart Phones Smart Meters

Snapshot of a SMART Mega City in 2020

SMART Infrastructure:

Multimodal Transport

Hubs Providing Excellent

Air, Rail, Road

Connectivity to Other

Mega Cities

SMART Technology: Intelligent

Communication Systems

Connecting Home, Office, iPhone

and Car on a Single Wireless IT

Platform

SMART Energy: 20% of

Energy Produced in the

City will be Renewable

(Wind, Solar etc)

SMART Buildings: Atleast 50% of

buildings will be Green and

Intelligent built with BIPV. Around

20% of the buildings will be Net

Zero Buildings.

24

Satellite Towns: Main City

Centre will Merge with

Several Satellite Towns to

form ONE BIG MEGA CITYSMART Cars: Atleast 10% of Cars will

be Electric Vehicles. Free Fast

Charging Stations at every half mile

SMART GRID:

Infrastructure to Enable

Real time monitoring of

power flow and Provide

Energy Surplus Back

to the Grid

Source: Google Images

Boulder

Vancouver

Toronto

San Francisco

PortlandSeattle

Montreal

St Davids

Clonburris

Göteborg

Hammarby Sjöstad

London

Reykjavik Oslo

Freiburg

Stockholm

Copenhagen

GIFT

Tianjin

Songdo

Amsterdam

SMART Mega Cities in 2020

Over 40 global cities to be SMART Cities in 2020 - More than 50% of smart cities of 2025

will be from Europe and North America. China and India to see over 50 New “Sustainable”

Cities

25

Cities built from scratch

Existing eco cities

Existing eco megacities

Treasure Island

Arcosanti

Coyote SpringsDestiny

Babcock Ranch

TorontoPortland

Curitiba

Bogota

Barcelona

Paris

Kochi

Cape Town

Pune

Dongtan

Changsha

KhajurahoMeixi Lake

Waitakere, N.Z.

Singapore City

Moreland, Australia

Masdar

Case Study: Amsterdam

SMART MOBILITY

SMART HOME

SMART OFFICE BUILDINGS

• 39% commute by bicycle

• 400+ Km of dedicated cycle

route

• To familiarise electric bicycle

taxis

• 200 charging stations by 2012;

• 10,000 EVs By 2015

• Encourage car sharing

• Cheaper parking slots at

• ITO tower is testing the use of various

energy saving technologies including smart

meters and energy efficient appliances to

cut energy consumption

• This smart building to feature design

aesthetics that absorb natural light and air

SMART COMMUTE to WORK

• 25 MNCs have jointly signed to reduce

home to work car miles by 10% by 2012

• Incentive/free bicycles to employees

• Free & protected bike parks at offices to

encourage cycle use.

• Work from home initiatives

Solar panel

26

P+R• Cheaper parking slots at

public transit stations to

park cars and board trains

• 1200 existing houses to adopt smart meters,

energy saving appliances & smart displays

that stimulate behavioral change in energy

consumption

• Smart grid that enable interaction between

the household and the grid to help optimise

energy production & distribution

• Smart meters – 14% reduction in energy use

• Decentralized energy generation by roof

mounted mini wind mill & solar panels

aesthetics that absorb natural light and air

from the environment

x • Yearly reduction of parking

spaces and increase of tariffs

inside the city.

• 30 kmph speed limits on 80%

of roads inside the city -

makes bicycles faster by

atleast 50% on a A-B trip

• 154 shore power connections

to charge inland cargo vessels

and river cruisers to be

installed by 2012

*****

SMART PUBLIC SPACE

• Utrechtsestraat – the popular shopping

street downtown with 130+ shops is to

feature smart metering & energy efficient

street lighting technologies,

• Tram stops made sustainable with solar

powered displays and billboards

• Solar powered garbage bins with built in

compacters to reduce the trip rates of

garbage collector trucks

wind mill

Smart meter

Solar

powered

M65B-18

Megatrend 3: Innovating To Zero !

27

Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020

Zero

Zero Waste/

Emissions

from Factories

Complete

Zero

Defects

Zero

Debts

28

Zero

Emissions

from Cars

Zero

Fatalities/

Accidents

on Roads

Zero

Breaches

of Security

Zero Crime

Rates

Complete

Recyclability

from Households

(Cradle to Cradle

Concept)

Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation

Wind Energy

Third Generation Bio Fuels

To account for 1,900,000

MW of electricity

production in 2020

“INNOVATING

TO

By 2022, algae biofuels will

be the largest biofuel

category overall, accounting

for 40 billion of the estimated

109 billion gallons of biofuels

produced.

29

Solar PV CellsGeothermal Energy

Ocean Energy

Capacity of solar power

to increase from 21,540

MW in 2020 to 630,000

MW in 2040

Share of geothermal

electricity in total

electricity produced in

2020 is 1.5%

TO

ZERO!”

To supply approximately

10 percent of the world's

electricity needs by 2020