Media Workshop - Introduction to Climate Science: Basic Issues in Climate Science: Greenhouse...
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Basic Issues in Climate Science: Green House Effect, Evidence of Change and Causes
Panmao Zhai Co-Chair IPCC WGI
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(Lüthi et al.,2008, NOAA)
+40%
2013
The atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide have increased to levels
unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
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Change in CO2, CH4…..
Surface absorption (change in albedo)
Solar radiation Lo
ng w
ave
radia
tion
Warming of the earth surface depends on radiation budget of the Climate System.
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Surface absorption (change in albedo)
Solar radiation Lo
ng w
ave
radia
tion
Warming of the earth surface depends on radiation budget of the Climate System.
400 ppm
CO2
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Fig.
SP
M.1
bTemperature Difference 1901 to 2012 based on trend (°C)
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal!
© IPCC 2013
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Multiple Lines of Evidence for Climate Change : Warming atmosphere & ocean, snow and ice melting, sea
level rising , GHG increasing, ……, all reflect consistent warming trend.
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Updated Monitoring on changes in global mean temperature and ocean heat content
Recent observations confirm the warming trend continues!
More than 90% of the energy stored in the ocean!
Source: Columbia University/NASA
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Global mean waring since 1951 (°C)
Solar, Volcanic
Aerosols
CO2, CH4, N2O
Anthropogenic
Internal Variability
Observed
Fig. TS.10
Human influence on theclimate system is clear.
© IP
CC
201
3
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Fig. SPM.7a
Global mean surface temperature (GMST) change from 1986-2005
© IP
CC
201
3
GMST change for the end of the 21st century is likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850-1900 for all RCPs except under mitigation scenario with very low forcing level.
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TS T
FE.1
, Fig
. 2
The contrast in precipitation between wet and dry regions and between wet and dry seasons will increase, [...]
© IP
CC
201
3
Change in water cycle properties from 1986-2005 to 2081-2100 in RCP8.5
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Fig. SPM.10
Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained reductions of greenhouse gas emissions.
© IP
CC
201
3
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Data: Scripps/NOAA-ESRL