MDL’s ExtratropicalStorm Surge

An Introduction

Anne KramerScientific ProgrammerNOAA/NWS/OST/MDL & TCA

ETSS background• ETSS model is based on

SLOSH, but modified to use GFS winds on 1° grid

• Runs 4x daily in NCEP operations

• Basins updated at MDL’s discretion; updates:– Alaska, Bering Sea: 1996– Alaska, Arctic: 1998– Gulf of Alaska: 2008– East Coast: 1999, 2008– Gulf of Mexico: 1999, 2011– West Coast: 1998, 2011

ETSS background• Resolution varies

– Gulf of Mexico ~ 4km– East Coast ~ 9.4km– Alaska ~ 6.7km– West Coast ~ 6.5km

• Each run has a 2 day initialization and a 4 day forecast period, for a total of 6 days

• Results posted to the web – http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/ (text

& hydrographs)– http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/SL.us008001/

ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ (gridded data)

– http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Loops/SURGE_GOM_EAST/SURGE_GOM_EAST_96_HR.shtml (gridded)

ETSS results for 3/4/2011

MDL’s website displaying total water level station status map, based on ETSS output

OPC’s website displayinggridded ETSS results

Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS

Forecast Total Water Level for Hurricane Ike, Based on ETSS

OPC’s website displayinggridded ETSS results for 3/4/11

Station total water level plot showing forecast for Ike storm surge event at Galveston, TX

MDL’s Participation in SURA Inundation Testbed Effort

• Completed– Uploaded to SURA server:

• archived forecast graphs and text files for north East Coast stations for the 3 periods of interest

• Projected– Reproduce gridded forecasts using archived

GFS wind data– Potentially create gridded hindcasts using

reanalysis GDAS winds