May 03, 2007 1 UFE ANALYSIS Old – New Model Comparison Compiled by the Load Profiling Group ERCOT...
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1 May 03, 2007 UFE ANALYSIS Old – New Model Comparison Compiled by the Load Profiling Group ERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation May 03, 2007
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Transcript of May 03, 2007 1 UFE ANALYSIS Old – New Model Comparison Compiled by the Load Profiling Group ERCOT...
1 May 03, 2007
UFE ANALYSIS Old – New Model Comparison
Compiled by the Load Profiling GroupERCOT Energy Analysis & Aggregation
May 03, 2007
2 May 03, 2007
UFE Basics
Sources of UFE include:■ Generation Measurement Errors■ Load - Missing/Erroneous Usage Data
- Model Error - Load Profile ID Assignment Error
■ Losses - Model Error - Loss Code Assignment Error
Negative UFE indicates load/losses are overestimated
UFE (unaccounted for energy) is computed as follows:UFE = Generation – (Load + Losses)
UFE % is computed as follows:UFE % = UFE / Generation
3 May 03, 2007
UFE Basics
Net Generation for Settlement Interval
Interval Data Energy Usage
Profiled Energy Usage Non-Interval Data
Non-Metered Accounts
Losses:Transmission &
Distribution
UFEGAP - - - - - - >
Net GenerationCompared toLoad Buildup
4 May 03, 2007
Analysis Overview
Objective: Estimate UFE impact for the 48 new profiles models
Analyze UFE impacts on an annual basis and across seasons, day-types and time-of-day Winter (Dec, Jan, Feb) Spring (Mar, Apr) Summer (May – Sep) Fall ( Oct, Nov)
Analysis based on current profile type assignments Analysis window January 1, 2005 – July 31, 2006 Analysis limited to the most recent settlement run for trade
date
Create a dataset of usage-sum values Compute the sum of all meter readings with the same Profile
Type, Weather Zone, read start date, and read stop date. Based on usage data available and Profile ID assignments
in December 2006
5 May 03, 2007
Create daily profile kWh for new and old models by summing the profile intervals for each day of the analysis window
Apply the daily profile kWh values to the usage-sum data to allocate the usage-sum across the days in the meter reading period
Result is daily kWh based on new and old profiles Assumed usage records spanning trade days within the
analysis window were completely loaded Apply new and old profiles to the daily kWh to allocate it to
intervals within the day
Sum the profiled interval values across all 48 profile type and weather zone combinations for each interval
Result is an old and new version of the total profiled load (for the 48 combinations) for each interval
Analysis Overview(continued)
6 May 03, 2007
Compute the difference between the old and new versions of the total profiled load for each interval
Difference = Profiled Loadold – Profiled Loadnew
Add the difference above to UFE (Old UFE) in the interval from the latest settlement run
New UFE = Old UFE + Difference All other settlement values thus are held constant Losses were not recalculated … they were also held constant
as a simplifying assumption
Proceeded with comparison analysis following the
patterns of previous UFE Analysis Reports
Analysis Overview(continued)
7 May 03, 2007
UFE on Ercot Peak Day August 23, 2005
Old Models vs New Models
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Interval
UF
E %
0
4,000
8,000
12,000
16,000
MW
h
% UFE - Old Models
% UFE - New Models
ERCOT Load
8 May 03, 2007
UFE MWh by Month New Models vs Old Models
UFE │UFE│
New Models
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-
05
Mar-0
5
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May-
06
Jul-0
6
MW
h
UFE = 2,252,156 MWh Abs. UFE = 6,750,384 MWh
Old Models
-200,000
-100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan-
05
Mar
-05
May
-05
Jul-0
5
Sep-0
5
Nov-05
Jan-
06
Mar
-06
May
-06
Jul-0
6
MW
h
UFE = 2,253,598 MWh Abs. UFE = 7,799,462 MWh
Abs. UFE MWh for New Models is 13% lower than Old Models
9 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost │UFE Cost│
UFE Cost by Month New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-$10,000,000
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
Jan-05
Mar-0
5
May-
05
Jul-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jan-06
Mar-0
6
May-
06
Jul-06
UFE Cost = $166,224,315 Abs. UFE = $451,479,856
Old Models
-$10,000,000
$0
$10,000,000
$20,000,000
$30,000,000
$40,000,000
$50,000,000
$60,000,000
$70,000,000
Jan-05
Mar-0
5
May-
05
Jul-05
Sep-05
Nov-05
Jan-06
Mar-0
6
May-
06
Jul-06
UFE Cost = $277,859,734 Abs. UFE = $559,327,024
UFE Cost for New Models is 40% lower than Old Models
Abs. UFE Cost for New Models is 19% lower than Old Models
10 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons – Study Period New Models vs Old Models
` MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 34,355 32,110 20,490 61,706
UFE_MW - New Models 162.6 149.9 -4,032.7 3,316.2UFE_MW - Old Models 162.7 124.3 -4,155.1 3,314.2
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 487.5 385.7 0.0 4,032.7│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 563.3 429.4 0.0 4,155.1
% UFE_MW - New Models 0.52% 0.44% -10.89% 9.67%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.44% 0.38% -14.55% 9.22%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.47% 1.16% 0.00% 10.89%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.65% 1.32% 0.00% 14.55%
UFE_Cost - New Models $3,001 $1,489 -$245,829 $533,771UFE_Cost - Old Models $5,017 $1,209 -$212,732 $603,737
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $8,151 $4,627 $0 $533,771│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $10,098 $5,066 $0 $603,737
% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.52% 0.44% -10.89% 9.67%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.44% 0.38% -14.55% 9.22%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.47% 1.16% 0.00% 10.89%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.65% 1.32% 0.00% 14.55%
11 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 30,507 30,615 20,859 41,504 29,666 30,024 21,589 41,303
UFE_MW - New Models 25.7 -45.3 -2412.6 2383.8 167.9 3.9 -1259.6 2380.0UFE_MW - Old Models 34.5 -65.0 -2488.5 2782.3 194.3 90.5 -1383.9 2353.3
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 684.0 608.8 0.0 2412.6 567.3 445.6 0.2 2380.0│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 690.5 581.9 1.5 2782.3 560.8 418.7 0.6 2353.3% UFE_MW - New Models -0.04% -0.15% -10.89% 7.81% 0.52% 0.01% -4.51% 7.06%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.00% -0.22% -10.93% 9.22% 0.63% 0.29% -4.78% 7.45%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 2.27% 2.02% 0.00% 10.89% 1.88% 1.57% 0.00% 7.06%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 2.29% 1.94% 0.00% 10.93% 1.88% 1.45% 0.00% 7.45%
UFE_Cost -New Models $1,689 -$253 -$49,587 $80,144 $2,144 $18 -$92,310 $86,008UFE_Cost - Old Models $1,880 -$410 -$42,147 $73,126 $2,366 $619 -$37,311 $75,277
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $7,593 $5,508 $0 $80,144 $6,031 $3,780 $0 $92,310│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $7,577 $5,307 $4 $73,126 $5,744 $3,429 $1 $75,277% UFE_Cost - New Models -0.04% -0.15% -10.89% 7.81% 0.52% 0.01% -4.51% 7.06%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.00% -0.22% -10.93% 9.22% 0.63% 0.29% -4.78% 7.45%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 2.27% 2.02% 0.00% 10.89% 1.88% 1.57% 0.00% 7.06%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 2.29% 1.94% 0.00% 10.93% 1.88% 1.45% 0.00% 7.45%
J anuary 2005 February 2005
12 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 28,022 28,827 20,885 36,158 28,437 28,649 20,490 41,268
UFE_MW - New Models 243.9 232.1 -1331.3 2443.1 36.4 37.5 -1277.5 1315.1UFE_MW - Old Models 200.0 202.7 -1602.7 2257.5 65.7 53.9 -1248.9 1493.6
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 440.8 354.8 0.3 2443.1 319.7 231.5 0.3 1315.1│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 431.2 334.6 0.1 2257.5 312.1 252.3 0.5 1493.6% UFE_MW - New Models 0.92% 0.83% -5.31% 8.98% 0.20% 0.14% -4.10% 4.85%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.76% 0.72% -6.34% 9.11% 0.26% 0.21% -4.46% 5.57%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.60% 1.29% 0.00% 8.98% 1.13% 0.84% 0.00% 4.85%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.57% 1.21% 0.00% 9.11% 1.11% 0.88% 0.00% 5.57%
UFE_Cost -New Models $3,365 $2,143 -$21,616 $93,233 $191 $321 -$55,576 $38,513UFE_Cost - Old Models $2,832 $1,848 -$26,059 $61,695 $1,380 $483 -$33,125 $48,314
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $5,386 $3,616 $2 $93,233 $4,510 $2,620 $2 $55,576│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $5,230 $3,587 $2 $61,695 $4,299 $2,825 $5 $48,314% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.92% 0.83% -5.31% 8.98% 0.20% 0.14% -4.10% 4.85%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.76% 0.72% -6.34% 9.11% 0.26% 0.21% -4.46% 5.57%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.60% 1.29% 0.00% 8.98% 1.13% 0.84% 0.00% 4.85%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.57% 1.21% 0.00% 9.11% 1.11% 0.88% 0.00% 5.57%
March 2005 April 2005
13 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 33,463 32,196 20,758 52,001 41,324 41,588 26,126 58,183
UFE_MW - New Models 150.6 141.6 -962.4 1485.2 3.3 26.8 -1598.8 1361.9UFE_MW - Old Models 158.8 69.6 -1580.0 2136.1 -3.3 -117.8 -1614.2 1805.3
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 390.1 321.2 0.1 1485.2 291.5 210.2 0.1 1598.8│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 516.1 397.1 0.4 2136.1 512.2 390.3 1.3 1805.3% UFE_MW - New Models 0.47% 0.41% -3.27% 4.96% 0.02% 0.06% -3.59% 3.73%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.36% 0.24% -5.13% 5.33% -0.17% -0.30% -4.51% 3.87%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.20% 1.02% 0.00% 4.96% 0.71% 0.51% 0.00% 3.73%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.50% 1.23% 0.00% 5.33% 1.25% 1.01% 0.00% 4.51%
UFE_Cost -New Models $2,158 $711 -$68,004 $86,978 $250 $251 -$43,204 $127,232UFE_Cost - Old Models $5,090 $481 -$13,762 $215,343 $2,934 -$999 -$34,370 $329,091
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $5,107 $3,088 $1 $86,978 $4,863 $2,953 $0 $127,232│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $8,282 $3,738 $1 $215,343 $8,857 $4,893 $10 $329,091% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.47% 0.41% -3.27% 4.96% 0.02% 0.06% -3.59% 3.73%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.36% 0.24% -5.13% 5.33% -0.17% -0.30% -4.51% 3.87%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.20% 1.02% 0.00% 4.96% 0.71% 0.51% 0.00% 3.73%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.50% 1.23% 0.00% 5.33% 1.25% 1.01% 0.00% 4.51%
May 2005 J une 2005
14 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 41,759 41,821 27,262 57,458 43,076 43,149 28,798 60,274
UFE_MW - New Models -117.5 -81.1 -3107.0 1404.3 44.0 62.3 -2165.7 1684.5UFE_MW - Old Models -126.9 -134.6 -2608.2 1883.9 71.3 -43.0 -1737.3 2469.9
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 466.9 377.9 0.3 3107.0 405.4 334.9 0.3 2165.7│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 598.1 524.4 0.6 2608.2 634.8 492.5 0.4 2469.9% UFE_MW - New Models -0.20% -0.20% -5.99% 4.15% 0.15% 0.16% -4.65% 3.51%% UFE_MW - Old Models -0.39% -0.34% -5.07% 4.34% -0.01% -0.12% -4.67% 4.95%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.11% 0.95% 0.00% 5.99% 0.94% 0.80% 0.00% 4.65%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.43% 1.28% 0.00% 5.07% 1.43% 1.22% 0.00% 4.95%
UFE_Cost -New Models -$2,915 -$992 -$84,084 $81,969 $539 $855 -$76,171 $120,954UFE_Cost - Old Models $1,095 -$1,408 -$50,795 $225,620 $7,576 -$579 -$32,543 $226,217
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $8,415 $5,408 $4 $84,084 $9,347 $6,144 $0 $120,954│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $11,088 $7,222 $0 $225,620 $16,548 $8,387 $8 $226,217% UFE_Cost - New Models -0.20% -0.20% -5.99% 4.15% 0.15% 0.16% -4.65% 3.51%% UFE_Cost - Old Models -0.39% -0.34% -5.07% 4.34% -0.01% -0.12% -4.67% 4.95%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.11% 0.95% 0.00% 5.99% 0.94% 0.80% 0.00% 4.65%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.43% 1.28% 0.00% 5.07% 1.43% 1.22% 0.00% 4.95%
J uly 2005 August 2005
15 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 40,533 39,931 25,247 59,594 31,774 30,495 20,959 52,191
UFE_MW - New Models 2.7 185.3 -4032.7 3046.9 293.1 322.1 -1085.9 2610.4UFE_MW - Old Models -50.8 -38.0 -4155.1 3190.4 340.7 296.5 -1361.0 2989.3
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 710.9 477.3 0.1 4032.7 468.1 417.2 0.2 2610.4│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 869.6 617.0 0.4 4155.1 502.2 386.9 0.5 2989.3% UFE_MW - New Models -0.02% 0.48% -9.69% 8.32% 0.97% 1.03% -3.76% 7.77%% UFE_MW - Old Models -0.42% -0.10% -14.55% 8.71% 0.99% 1.01% -4.65% 8.89%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.82% 1.17% 0.00% 9.69% 1.51% 1.36% 0.00% 7.77%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 2.20% 1.54% 0.00% 14.55% 1.53% 1.32% 0.00% 8.89%
UFE_Cost -New Models -$414 $3,479 -$245,829 $204,465 $7,860 $5,242 -$56,350 $193,519UFE_Cost - Old Models $5,636 -$451 -$125,062 $447,178 $12,672 $5,051 -$38,572 $286,461
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $18,359 $10,107 $2 $245,829 $12,403 $8,527 $7 $193,519│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $23,086 $11,508 $7 $447,178 $16,142 $7,475 $1 $286,461% UFE_Cost - New Models -0.02% 0.48% -9.69% 8.32% 0.97% 1.03% -3.76% 7.77%% UFE_Cost - Old Models -0.42% -0.10% -14.55% 8.71% 0.99% 1.01% -4.65% 8.89%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.82% 1.17% 0.00% 9.69% 1.51% 1.36% 0.00% 7.77%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 2.20% 1.54% 0.00% 14.55% 1.53% 1.32% 0.00% 8.89%
September 2005 October 2005
16 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 29,712 29,807 21,293 42,580 31,334 30,689 20,972 48,141
UFE_MW - New Models 165.8 143.6 -1640.4 1926.1 440.8 389.4 -1459.2 2513.3UFE_MW - Old Models 161.5 176.4 -1181.4 1719.9 435.2 363.3 -1701.9 3013.1
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 414.6 349.6 0.2 1926.1 697.7 545.3 0.2 2513.3│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 437.4 369.8 1.0 1719.9 751.6 608.3 0.0 3013.1% UFE_MW - New Models 0.59% 0.49% -6.08% 6.50% 1.31% 1.26% -5.35% 6.68%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.60% 0.60% -3.65% 5.88% 1.31% 1.19% -6.61% 8.36%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.42% 1.17% 0.00% 6.50% 2.17% 1.83% 0.00% 6.68%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.49% 1.29% 0.00% 5.88% 2.37% 1.95% 0.00% 8.36%
UFE_Cost -New Models $3,161 $1,516 -$127,363 $121,580 $12,588 $5,702 -$50,269 $533,771UFE_Cost - Old Models $3,094 $1,533 -$95,966 $115,453 $12,636 $5,086 -$212,732 $603,737
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $6,690 $4,498 $1 $127,363 $16,754 $8,967 $2 $533,771│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $7,297 $4,860 $5 $115,453 $17,528 $9,442 $1 $603,737% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.59% 0.49% -6.08% 6.50% 1.31% 1.26% -5.35% 6.68%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.60% 0.60% -3.65% 5.88% 1.31% 1.19% -6.61% 8.36%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.42% 1.17% 0.00% 6.50% 2.17% 1.83% 0.00% 6.68%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.49% 1.29% 0.00% 5.88% 2.37% 1.95% 0.00% 8.36%
November 2005 December 2005
17 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 28,880 29,591 21,225 39,400 30,933 30,753 22,178 43,370
UFE_MW - New Models 174.2 114.0 -1564.2 2906.8 364.8 322.8 -1259.7 3316.2UFE_MW - Old Models 177.5 104.4 -1811.8 2651.3 367.3 319.4 -1387.0 3314.2
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 488.5 395.8 0.2 2906.8 669.4 522.6 0.3 3316.2│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 471.5 356.1 0.4 2651.3 642.2 515.1 1.0 3314.2% UFE_MW - New Models 0.63% 0.40% -5.43% 9.67% 1.09% 1.07% -4.20% 8.49%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.66% 0.37% -6.37% 9.06% 1.12% 1.03% -4.58% 8.81%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.69% 1.38% 0.00% 9.67% 2.10% 1.73% 0.00% 8.49%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.66% 1.23% 0.00% 9.06% 2.02% 1.70% 0.00% 8.81%
UFE_Cost -New Models $2,882 $999 -$48,454 $129,518 $5,938 $3,096 -$47,978 $191,719UFE_Cost - Old Models $2,721 $981 -$48,820 $122,684 $5,880 $2,855 -$28,110 $212,220
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $6,741 $3,965 $1 $129,518 $9,554 $5,929 $1 $191,719│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $6,508 $3,654 $4 $122,684 $9,161 $5,689 $0 $212,220% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.63% 0.40% -5.43% 9.67% 1.09% 1.07% -4.20% 8.49%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.66% 0.37% -6.37% 9.06% 1.12% 1.03% -4.58% 8.81%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.69% 1.38% 0.00% 9.67% 2.10% 1.73% 0.00% 8.49%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.66% 1.23% 0.00% 9.06% 2.02% 1.70% 0.00% 8.81%
J anuary 2006 February 2006
18 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 29,328 29,996 21,564 39,130 32,758 32,688 21,502 52,024
UFE_MW - New Models 289.0 298.3 -1718.9 2542.6 273.0 293.7 -1415.7 1711.4UFE_MW - Old Models 234.3 215.0 -1761.8 2340.0 308.7 299.4 -1982.3 2578.9
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 495.8 418.4 0.4 2542.6 465.7 384.2 0.3 1711.4│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 447.8 347.6 0.1 2340.0 545.5 435.2 0.3 2578.9% UFE_MW - New Models 1.04% 1.02% -5.03% 7.31% 0.88% 0.93% -5.20% 5.50%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.85% 0.77% -5.12% 7.67% 0.87% 0.92% -6.99% 6.11%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.70% 1.42% 0.00% 7.31% 1.47% 1.24% 0.00% 5.50%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.55% 1.20% 0.00% 7.67% 1.64% 1.36% 0.00% 6.99%
UFE_Cost -New Models $4,024 $2,939 -$71,994 $380,337 $4,470 $2,856 -$42,195 $108,247UFE_Cost - Old Models $3,362 $2,148 -$28,292 $274,948 $7,637 $3,387 -$18,552 $210,098
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $6,791 $4,362 $5 $380,337 $7,155 $4,574 $2 $108,247│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $5,969 $3,800 $1 $274,948 $10,020 $5,136 $2 $210,098% UFE_Cost - New Models 1.04% 1.02% -5.03% 7.31% 0.88% 0.93% -5.20% 5.50%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.85% 0.77% -5.12% 7.67% 0.87% 0.92% -6.99% 6.11%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.71% 1.42% 0.00% 7.31% 1.47% 1.24% 0.00% 5.50%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.55% 1.20% 0.00% 7.67% 1.64% 1.36% 0.00% 6.99%
March 2006 April 2006
19 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAX MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 36,361 35,775 22,781 54,245 41,190 41,235 26,224 57,987
UFE_MW - New Models 238.2 254.2 -1476.5 1751.8 182.6 143.9 -1865.9 1779.4UFE_MW - Old Models 270.0 227.0 -1804.2 2595.6 176.2 102.7 -2296.2 2318.9
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 428.7 359.7 0.3 1751.8 432.9 346.7 0.2 1865.9│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 626.0 485.4 0.2 2595.6 615.5 503.7 0.1 2318.9% UFE_MW - New Models 0.71% 0.73% -3.59% 5.28% 0.40% 0.35% -4.62% 4.04%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.62% 0.68% -5.70% 6.37% 0.25% 0.26% -5.87% 4.62%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.22% 1.01% 0.00% 5.28% 1.05% 0.86% 0.00% 4.62%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.66% 1.41% 0.00% 6.37% 1.48% 1.30% 0.00% 5.87%
UFE_Cost -New Models $3,951 $2,298 -$94,150 $222,504 $3,448 $1,661 -$22,930 $87,920UFE_Cost - Old Models $7,287 $1,922 -$116,067 $368,657 $5,225 $1,156 -$24,961 $106,416
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $6,325 $3,562 $2 $222,504 $6,288 $3,775 $1 $87,920│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $10,783 $4,923 $3 $368,657 $9,167 $5,545 $1 $106,416% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.71% 0.73% -3.59% 5.28% 0.40% 0.35% -4.62% 4.04%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.62% 0.68% -5.70% 6.37% 0.25% 0.26% -5.87% 4.62%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.22% 1.01% 0.00% 5.28% 1.05% 0.86% 0.00% 4.62%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.66% 1.41% 0.00% 6.37% 1.48% 1.30% 0.00% 5.87%
May 2006 J une 2006
20 May 03, 2007
Statistical Comparisons - Monthly New Models vs Old Models
MEAN MEDIAN MIN MAXERCOT LOAD (MW) 43,158 42,838 27,494 61,706
UFE_MW - New Models 121.7 167.8 -2431.7 1600.0UFE_MW - Old Models 89.7 141.1 -2067.8 2198.1
│UFE_MW │ - New Models 440.2 381.0 0.3 2431.7│UFE_MW │ - Old Models 541.1 433.2 0.2 2198.1% UFE_MW - New Models 0.31% 0.39% -4.17% 3.32%% UFE_MW - Old Models 0.10% 0.34% -5.26% 4.54%
│% UFE_MW │ - New Models 1.04% 0.89% 0.00% 4.17%│% UFE_MW │ - Old Models 1.27% 1.04% 0.00% 5.26%
UFE_Cost -New Models $1,660 $1,883 -$84,387 $124,692UFE_Cost - Old Models $3,693 $1,480 -$30,804 $112,849
│UFE_Cost │ - New Models $6,443 $4,447 $2 $124,692│UFE_Cost │ - Old Models $8,124 $5,191 $1 $112,849% UFE_Cost - New Models 0.31% 0.39% -4.17% 3.32%% UFE_Cost - Old Models 0.10% 0.34% -5.26% 4.54%
│% UFE_Cost │ - New Models 1.04% 0.89% 0.00% 4.17%│% UFE_Cost │ - Old Models 1.27% 1.04% 0.00% 5.26%
J uly 2006
21 May 03, 2007
Distribution of UFE MW New Models vs Old Models
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
-3,7
50
-1,3
75-7
50-3
50 50 450
850
1,25
01,
650
2,12
5
MW
% o
f In
terv
als
New Models
Old Models
22 May 03, 2007
Distribution of UFE Cost New Models vs Old Models
UFE Cost = ∑(MCPE × UFE_MWh)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
-$10
0,00
0
-$40
,000
-$20
,000
-$10
,000 $0
$10,
000
$20,
000
$40,
000
$60,
000
$80,
000
$100
,000
$200
,000
% o
f In
terv
als
New Models
Old Models
23 May 03, 2007
UFE % by Day of Week New Models vs Old Models
Old Models
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
New Models
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
24 May 03, 2007
UFE % - Average Weekday New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Interval
UFE
%
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Old Models
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96
Interval
UFE
%
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
25 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost by Day of Week New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-$60,000
-$30,000
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
ost
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Old Models
-$60,000
-$30,000
$0
$30,000
$60,000
$90,000
$120,000
$150,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
os
t
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
26 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost - Average Weekday New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-$120,000
-$60,000
$0
$60,000
$120,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E C
ost
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Old Models
-$120,000
-$60,000
$0
$60,000
$120,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E C
ost
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
27 May 03, 2007
UFE % vs Load New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models ERCOT Load
Old Models
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
28 May 03, 2007
UFE % – Average Weekday New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Intervals
UFE
%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models ERCOT Load
Old Models
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UFE
%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models ERCOT Load
29 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost vs Load New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models ERCOT Load
Old Models
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri SatU
FE
Co
st
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - Old Models ERCOT Load
30 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost – Average Weekday New Models vs Old Models
New Models
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Intervals
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models ERCOT Load
Old Models
-$15,000
-$10,000
-$5,000
$0
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Intervals
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models ERCOT Load
31 May 03, 2007
UFE % vs Load by Season New Models vs Old Models
Winter
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Spring
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Summer
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Fall
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
32 May 03, 2007
UFE % Average Weekday by Season New Models vs Old Models
Winter
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Spring
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Summer
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Fall
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E %
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
33 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost vs Load by Season New Models vs Old Models
Winter
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models UFE Cost - Old Models ERCOT Load
Spring
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models UFE Cost - Old Models ERCOT Load
Summer
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models UFE Cost - Old Models ERCOT Load
Fall
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models UFE Cost - Old Models ERCOT Load
34 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost – Average Weekday by Season New Models vs Old Models
Winter
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E C
os
t
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
UFE Cost - New Models UFE Cost - Old Models ERCOT Load
Spring
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
EC
ost
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Summer
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E C
ost
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
Fall
-$40,000
-$30,000
-$20,000
-$10,000
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96Interval
UF
E C
ost
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
MW
% UFE - New Models % UFE - Old Models ERCOT Load
35 May 03, 2007
UFE % vs ERCOT Load New Models
New Models
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
21,000 26,000 31,000 36,000 41,000 46,000 51,000 56,000 61,000
MW
UF
E %
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
36 May 03, 2007
UFE % vs ERCOT Load Old Models
Old Models
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
21,000 26,000 31,000 36,000 41,000 46,000 51,000 56,000 61,000
MW
UF
E %
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
37 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost vs ERCOT Load New Models
New Models
-$150,000
-$100,000
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
21,000 26,000 31,000 36,000 41,000 46,000 51,000 56,000 61,000
MW
UF
E C
ost
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
38 May 03, 2007
UFE Cost vs ERCOT Load Old Models
Old Models
-$150,000
-$100,000
-$50,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
21,000 26,000 31,000 36,000 41,000 46,000 51,000 56,000 61,000
MW
UF
E C
ost
Median 5th Percentile 95th Percentile Regression
Medians, 5th and 95th Percentiles compiled over entire analysis period
