Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Settlement Size and Fertility in the Nordic Countries Hill Kulu, Andres Vikat and Gunnar Andersson. Background. A lot of research on spatial aspects of first demographic transition, e.g. the Princeton European Fertility Project - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Settlement Size and Fertility in the Nordic Countries
Hill Kulu, Andres Vikat and Gunnar Andersson
Background
• A lot of research on spatial aspects of first demographic transition, e.g. the Princeton European Fertility Project
• Only a few studies on spatial aspects of second demographic transition
Objectives and data
• To study fertility trends across settlements in the Nordic countries from the mid-1970s to the early 21st century, and to examine the causes of fertility variation across settlements
• The data from the population registers of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden
• Annual number of births by age of mother across municipalities for the period from 1975 to 2003; female population (annually) by age across municipalities
• Individual childbearing records from Swedish population registers on all Swedish women born in 1945 and later
Explanatory variable
Size of municipality:
1) Capital city (more than 500,000 inhabitants)2) Other cities (100,000-500,000 inhabitants)3) Towns (50,000-100,000 inhabitants)4) Medium-sized towns (10,000-50,000 inhabitants)5) Small towns (5,000-10,000 inhabitants)6) Rural areas (less than 5,000 inhabitants)
Suburban municipalities defined as part of the urban region Criteria: 20% of employed population commute to work in the neighbouring city or town
Municipalities of Denmark by size
Denmark municipalities.shpCapital city regionCity regionsTownsMedium-sized townsSmall townsRural areas
Denmark municipalities.shpCapital city regionCity regionsTownsMedium-sized townsSmall townsRural areas
Municipalities of Finland by size
Denmark municipalities.shpCapital city regionCity regionsTownsMedium-sized townsSmall townsRural areas
Municipalities of Norway by size
Denmark municipalities.shpCapital city regionCity regionsTownsMedium-sized townsSmall townsRural areas
Municipalities of Sweden by size
Denmark municipalities.shpCapital city regionCity regionsTownsMedium-sized townsSmall townsRural areas
Total fertility (TFR) by settlement size
Denmark Norway
Finland Sweden
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Capital city region City regions Towns
M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Capital city region City regions Towns
M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Capital city region City regions Towns
M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
2.4
2.6
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Large city regions City regions Towns
M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
TFR in capital city regions relative to that in small towns and rural areas
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003
Denmark Finland Norway Sweden
Age-specific fertility by settlement size, 1975-77
Denmark Norway
Finland Sweden
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Capital city region City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Capital city region City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Capital city region City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
Age-specific fertility by settlement size,2001-03
Denmark Norway
Finland Sweden
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Capital city region City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Capital city region City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
Capital city region City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.00
0.04
0.08
0.12
0.16
0.20
15 20 25 30 35 40 45
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
First birth rates by settlement size in Sweden
Ages 15-29
Ages 30-45
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
Second and third birth rates by settlement size in Sweden
Second birth
Third birth
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns and rural areas
Conclusions
• A significant fertility variation across settlements in all four Nordic countries – the larger the settlement the lower fertility
• The variation in fertility has decreased over time, but significant differences between settlement types have persisted
• The timing of childbearing also varies across settlements – the larger the settlement the later the peak of fertility
• The patterns are rather similar in all four countries
• Sweden: All parity-specific fertility varies across settlements
• Sweden: Socioeconomic characteristics account only for a small part of fertility variation across settlements
Thank you!
Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
Female population (15-49) by settlement size
Denmark Norway
Finland Sweden
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1975 1985 1995 2003
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1976 1985 1995 2003
Large city regions City regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1975 1985 1995 2003
Large city regions C ity regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
1975 1985 1995 2003
Large city regions C ity regions Towns M edium-sized towns Small towns Rural areas
Female population (15-49) by settlement size
1975 1985 1995 2003 Denmark Capital city region 29 27 27 28 City regions 17 17 18 18 Towns 13 14 14 14 Medium-sized towns 29 29 29 28 Small towns 11 12 12 11 Rural areas 1 1 1 1 Total 100 100 100 100 Finland Capital city region 21 22 24 26 City regions 14 14 15 17 Towns 16 16 16 16 Medium-sized towns 25 25 24 23 Small towns 13 13 12 11 Rural areas 10 9 9 8 Total 100 100 100 100 Norway Capital city region 24 24 23 24 City regions 17 16 16 17 Towns 6 6 7 8 Medium-sized towns 26 27 30 29 Small towns 12 13 12 11 Rural areas 14 14 12 11 Total 100 100 100 100 Sweden Large city regions 26 27 28 30 City regions 18 18 19 20 Towns 20 20 20 19 Medium-sized towns 31 31 29 27 Small towns 4 4 3 3
Birth rates by settlement size in Sweden
Model 1 Model 2
1981–9 1990–9 1981–9 1990–9 First births at ages 15–29
Large city regions 1 1 1 1 City regions 1.22 1.20 1.25 1.26 Towns 1.32 1.29 1.35 1.32 Medium-sized towns 1.52 1.62 1.54 1.56 Small towns and rural areas 1.65 1.82 1.68 1.75 First births at ages 30–45 Large city regions 1 1 1 1 City regions 0.90 0.90 0.94 0.95 Towns 0.92 0.90 0.98 0.97 Medium-sized towns 0.87 0.87 1.00 1.00 Small towns and rural areas 0.85 0.84 1.03 0.99 Second births Large city regions 1 1 1 1 City regions 1.04 1.02 1.04 1.02 Towns 1.05 1.02 1.05 1.02 Medium-sized towns 1.11 1.05 1.13 1.07 Small towns and rural areas 1.18 1.12 1.21 1.14 Third births Large city regions 1 1 1 1 City regions 1.01 1.00 1.02 1.00 Towns 1.03 1.02 1.05 1.03 Medium-sized towns 1.08 1.07 1.12 1.10 Small towns and rural areas 1.25 1.18 1.29 1.21
