Matthews drivers of agricultural policy change calabria june 2016
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CHALLENGES TO AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Alan Matthews [email protected] Trinity College Dublin, Ireland Conference in honor of GIOVANNI ANANIA " Challenges to agricultural policies and implications for national and local agri-food sectors" 15 July 2016, Rende (CS), Italy 1
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Transcript of Matthews drivers of agricultural policy change calabria june 2016
CHALLENGES TO AGRICULTURAL POLICIESIN DEVELOPED COUNTRIESAlan [email protected] College Dublin, Ireland
Conference in honor of GIOVANNI ANANIA" Challenges to agricultural policies and implications for national and local agri-food sectors"15 July 2016, Rende (CS), Italy
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The economic environment• Market trends• Trade policies• Food chain structure and bargaining issues
The resource environment• Land and water availability• Natural resource depletion (soil, biodiversity, ecosystem services)• Climate adaptation and mitigation• Labour
The regulatory environment• Biosecurity and spread of new pests and diseases• Preventing negative environmental effects• Meeting consumer demand for quality and risk protection
Implications for agricultural policy• Competitiveness and innovation• Addressing volatility• Promoting sustainable agriculture• Future of income support?
• Prices to remain overall flat, but to change in relative terms
• Relative price changes reflect adjustments in the composition of demand and differences in supply conditions
• Is this a “new normal”?
Market fundamentals point to flat real prices
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
2022
2025
0100200300400500600700800
-500
500
1500
2500
3500
4500
5500
Wheat Rice Soybean WMPBeef and Veal
USD/T (Crops)
USD/T (Meat & Dairy)
Changing patterns of global agricultural trade
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Levels of support to producers in OECD and emerging economies are converging
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
%
Grand Total OECD 9 emerging economies
Support to farms as percentage of gross farm receipts
Source: OECD (2016), "Producer and Consumer Support Estimates", OECD Agriculture statistics (database), http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr-pcse-data-en.
Changing landscape of agricultural support
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1995-1997 2013-2015
Source: OECD PSE database Million euro
The resource environment
Improving resource efficiency
• Soil health and fertility• Nutrient recovery and
recycling• Water use efficiency• Generational renewal and
farm labour
Climate adaptation and mitigation
• Greater exposure to extreme events
• Changes in growing conditions• Opportunities in bioenergy and
carbon sequestration• Mitigation challenges in the
face of COP21 targets
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The regulatory environment
Animal and plant health
• Spread of transboundary pests and disease
• Anti-microbial resistance
Managing biodiversity and ecosystem services
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• Preventing negative spillovers
• Protecting habitats• Promoting ecosystem
services
The regulatory environmentConsumer protection, information,
diets and health
• Public health (food safety, air quality, pesticide regulation)
• GMOs/novel foods• Voluntary quality standards
(e.g. organic, supermarkets)• Dietary guidelines
Circular economy
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• Reducing food waste• Opportunities in
bioeconomy
Implications for agricultural policy• Agricultural policies in an open, globalised
economy
• Targeted vs generalised policies
• Ensuring resilience to shocks
• Providing the right signals for sustainable agriculture and improved environmental performance
• Farm structure and transfer issues
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