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Transcript of Mastering change by making it real
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Issue 15 Cybersecurity Beyond the
BRICS
Interview with P&Gs
Deb Henretta
24 34 46
Designing yourfiercest competitorMastering change bymaking it realpage 12
view
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Designing your ercest competitorMastering change by making it real
Cover story
12 PwC ViewIssue 15
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PwC View Issue 1513
changed the mental model of the company:
It would from now on be not only about what
ran on the PC, but also the capabilities of the
Internet and the tools (the Internet Explorer
browser, for example) needed to fully exploit
them. He was not going to let a new, erce
competitor take advantage of this technologi-
cal and social trendthe Internetand use
it to beat his company.
At the time, Gates demonstrated vision,
tenacity, and, ultimately, the ability toorganize and executequalities that are
even more important today. The world is
more complex now than it was a decade
ago. Things are changing faster because
science is expanding and, most important,
because feedback loops in technology,
knowledge, and networks amplify learning.
Legend has it that in 1994, Bill Gates
assistant, Steve Sonofsky, was visiting
his alma mater, Cornell University. While
there, he noted that Cornell was taking
full advantage of the edgling Internet
email, course listings, international faculty
collaborations, etc.and red off an email
to his boss.1 As a result, Gates became con-
vinced that he needed to shift Microsofts
focus toward the Internetand fast. He
sent out a long memo2 that stated that the
Internet was taking off and that Microsoftwould be a part of it.
Moreover, he wove this fundamental change
into his story about the company. In particu-
lar, he noted that the Internet was a natural
extension of the desktop and part of the per-
sonal computer domain. In other words, he
By John J. Sviokla and Adam J. Gutstein
John J. Sviokla is a Principal in PwCs US
Advisory practice where he serves as business
leader or strategy and innovation. Principal
Adam J. Gutstein is the management consulting
leader in that practice.
So we wont experience 100 years of progress in the 21st centuryit will be more like 20,000 years of progress.Ray Kurzweil
The speed of change is increasing at an alarming rate. AuthorsJohn J. Sviokla and Adam J. Gutstein argue that to prepare foraccelerated change, companies need to look at ve critical factors
that they call the STEEP drivers: social, technological, environmental,economic, and political. Further, they maintain that managementteams like yours can make these drivers of change real by askingleadership to design a ercest competitor that could disrupt yourindustry. This manner of thinking and design sets the stage for actionsmanagement can take to benet from, rather than be overwhelmed by,this rapidly changing environment.
1 http://www.cornell.edu/about/wired/.
2 This memo can be ound at http://www.lettersonote.com/2011/07/internet-tidal-wave.html.
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14 PwC ViewIssue 15
For example, in 1990, the Human
Genome Project was expected to last 15
years. However, because of advances in
technology, the task was completed by
2003.3 Even the deepest experts did not
understand how the law of accelerating
returns (a phrase coined by Ray Kurzweil),which posits that technological change is
exponential,4 works. They could not see
how a combination of computer power,
increased understanding, competitive
access, and the knowledge network across
Figure 1: STEEPA broad set o drivers with the potential to disrupt all industries th Steep rivrs rovi conx
In order to make sense of this accelerat-
ing situation, we considered hundreds of
trends, predictions, and forecasts, as well
as their methods. We synthesized these
forward-looking ideas into a model of vevital, interrelated drivers that we believe
are the critical factors disrupting industries
and recreating the lines of competition.
(See Figure 1.) Understanding these core
drivers and how they impact an organiza-
tion is key to managing in this world of
accelerating returns.
drivr 1: Socil
By nature, people are social. Whether it is
a friend who badmouths his car mechanic,
or a distant cousin who helps get you
that new job, the impact of social con-
nections always has been the base upon
the Internet could make things happen
much faster than expected.
In our view, in this world of faster change,
it is time to examine the interlocking factors
of social, technological, environmental,
economic, and political change: STEEPdrivers. Making these real is an exercise in
creative destruction that involves a manage-
ment teams designing a ercest competitor
that could take advantage of these fast-
moving trends for competitive gain.
3 http://www.ornl.gov/sci/techresources/Human_Genome/aq/aqs1.shtml.
4 http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-o-accelerating-returns.
Political
Social Technological
Environmental
Economic
STEEPDrivers
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PwC View Issue 1515
which commerce functions. Riding atop
the Internet, social networks like Facebook
and LinkedIn, or user-driven review sites
like Yelp! and Rotten Tomatoes, have
developed and taken hold at a phenomenal
pace. As pundits have noted, by population,Facebook, created only eight years ago,
would be the third-largest country in
the world.5
Today, social networks not only offer
extensive consumer information, but
also provide an infrastructure capable
of shaping societys institutionsthrough
self-organization, fundraising, and
political action. In a business context, this
means that social media is reshaping the
micro context of a companys brand and
services, and the macro context of politics
and regulation.
networks. This enables the rm to have a
live, informed conversation with its audi-
ence around the clock, throughout the year
If your rm does not perform this kind of
monitoring and responsiveness, there may
be conversations happening about you ofwhich you are unaware, and lack of atten-
tion can allow negative perceptions or even
wrong claims to fester and grow.
Trust is a signicant factor in this new
world. Customers are more willing to
trust a peer or customer review than a
companys claims about its product or
service. Numerous websites and forums
bear this out. However, today, a potent
factor has been added to the equation.
Social networks increase the ability of
online shoppers to make use of multiple
distribution channels and outlets, making
Affecting the micro domain
Recently, a major airline discovered how
the micro context of its brand could be af-
fected by the impact of social networks. A
well-known celebrity who had more than
1.4 million Twitter followers was using hisaccount to complain about the service he
received. He was updating his audience in
real time about his feelings. Fortunately
for the airline, representatives continually
monitor social media in real time to discover
what people are saying about the company.
As a result, they were able to view conversa-
tions and complaints and to respond almost
immediately to the issue that this famous,
disgruntled customer had with the airline.
Social media are completely integrated
with the airlines customer contact centers,
from the phone, to the Web, to social
5 Dan Fletcher, How Facebook Is Redefning Privacy, May 20, 2010, at http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1990798,00.html.
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the inuence of opinion that much more
powerful. For example, a recent PwC study
of more than 7,000 online users around
the globe found that the vast majority
86 percentof survey respondents shop
across at least two channels, and 25 percentare using four or ve.6 In this process, they
often turn to social media to help them
make their choices.
How are companies taking advantage of
these new social developments? The savvy
ones are co-creating products and services
with their customers. Sports apparel manu-
facturer Nike offers one example. With the
Nike+ system, a small, removable elec-
tronic pod is a part of the insole of the shoe.
This pod, which is the size of a quarter,
sends results to a smart device and allows
runners to track their own training, includ-
ing distance and pace. This information is
automatically uploaded to a website and
runners can share their routes, routines,
and comments easily and quickly. This
innovative product system, with its social
overlay, differentiates the shoe.
Affecting the macro domain
Since the commercialization of the Internet,
the number of registered non-governmentalorganizations has grown from 1,250 to more
than 45,000,7 and today, many of these ride
atop the Internet. This means that the ability
of special interest groups to organize, raise
funds, and take action has become much
easier. More than ever, businesses need to
understand who is shaping the agenda for
their companies and industries.
Part of the reason that social media has
grown so quickly is the result of positive
feedback. That is, the more that people use
the medium, add reviews, or watch online
videos, the more likely they are to nd some-
thing useful and come back. Coming back
for something useful is not different. What is
new is the permanency of the network and
the increasing returns it creates in terms of
its value. In a network, positive feedback
drives rapid adoption, a phenomenon that
we expect to continue to grow.
drivr 2: tchnologicl
We live in a wondrous and disconcertingage. Chances are your briefcase or pocket
holds one of the latest waves of technologi-
cal change. Based on cellular subscriptions,
there are now more than 5 billion cell
phones worldwide. Almost all new cars are
connected to the Internet. The Internet of
Things is adding everything from insulin
pumps to light switches onto the grid. Big
Data allow for the decoding of human ge-
nomes and the ability of computers to beat
humans at chess. And these examples are in
no way comprehensive.8
Connecting everything means that rms
increasingly need to compete not just on
the quality of their physical value chain,
but also on their ability to manage their
information value chain. 7-Eleven in Japan
01:10:29
09:22:31
12:08:32
16:43:05
24:34:43
30:23:15
36:12:56
6 PwC, Customers take control: How the multi-channel shopper is changing the global retail landscape, December 2011.
7 http://www.apa.org/international/united-nations/publications.aspx.
8 The Internet o Things is a new kind o network that will allow sensor-enabled physical objectsappliances in your home, products in a actory, cars in a cityto talk to one another, the same wa
people communicate over the Internet. See Times Best Inventions o 2008 at http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1852747_1854195_1854158,00.html #ixzz1m0tJ9Ghn.
Big Data reers to massive amounts o data that are analyzed with massively parallel computers.
Read the ull defnition at http://www.pcmag.com/encyclopedia_term/0,2542,t=Big+Data&i=62849,00.asp.
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has such great control over its informa-
tion value chain that it tells store managers
how to restock to meet the demand of
the breakfast crowd, the lunch rush, the
afternoon snacker, the evening shopper, and
the late-night eater. The company is ableto drive more sales because its information
value chain allows it to slice the store in time
increments, thereby creating more virtual
square footage through information.
General Electrics aircraft engine business
has more information about the behavior
of the engine on the wing that it tracks in
its command center than the pilots have
in the cockpit. By being able to track this
information in real time, GE can provide
customers with more analysis and preven-
tative maintenance, thereby increasing
up-time. Most important, by having a
technological connection to the engine in
ight, GE can sell power by the hour and
provide airlines with a service whereby
they pay only for those hours of engine use
they consume while GE worries about own-
ing, providing, and maintaining the asset.
We see a growing number of companies
using this technology-based advantage to
enhance their products, create new and
better services, and retain customers.
drivr 3: environmnl
From a business perspective, eco-friendliness
used to be primarily about reputation. That
no longer is the case. Today, there is pressure
on every industry to deal with power, water,
and general environmental impact.
CEOs are recognizing that sustainability
is as important to competitiveness as it is
to image, permeating every aspect of an
organization, from talent recruitment to
innovation. In fact, according to our 14th
Annual Global CEO Survey, 64 percent of
respondents agree or strongly agree that
an important part of their innovation
strategy is to develop products or services
that are environmentally friendly.
In short, in an increasingly competitive
market, eco-friendliness is a differentiator,
and more and more rms are recognizing
the need to determine the implications
of environmental matters for themselves,
their customers, and their locations.
Consider MBA Polymers, for example,
a company that has taken a potential
eco-disasterdiscarded post-consumer
plasticand turned it into a successful
enterprise. When founder and plastics
engineer Mike Biddle discovered that,
for a variety of reasons, very little plastic
was being recycled, he set out to nd a
solution. He developed a 30-step plastics
recycling system that results in a product
that requires less than one-tenth of the
energy needed to make new plastic from
crude oil. As a consequence of an innovative
eco-friendly solution, MBA Polymers has
grown to include plants in China, Austria,
and the United Kingdom, with plans to
open additional plants in the future.
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drivr 4: economic
Evidence points to the fact that the
developing world is growing at a
faster pace than the developed world.
(See Figure 2.)
Most companies not only expect to grow
in their home markets, but also intend to
expand in other countries. Firms headquar-
tered in the developed world want to growin the developing world and vice versa.
(See Figure 3.) Because there will be
intensive competition both in developed
as well as in emerging markets, companies
need to understand how to manage a globa
supply base while meeting the needs of
their local markets.
In our view, the need to grow will drive
companies to manage their costs in a glob-
ally efcient manner. This is evident in that
almost every major company is establishing
research and development centers around
the globe and sourcing from an ever-wider
base of global suppliers. For example, a
large multi-level marketing company we
worked with had standardized its core
products and business concepts around the
world. At the same time, it was important
to meet the local variations in a number
of markets. Therefore, the products that
the company stocked and the business
model it followed differed country by
country. The Internet is an infrastructure
that enables simultaneous standardizationof some capabilities and localization of
others. Again, this trend is accelerating
as a combination of more open trade and
the Internet enables a worldwide platform
for commerce.
86%of more than 7,000 online users surveyed shop across at least two channels.
Other companies also have taken advantage
of the demand for eco-friendly products and
services. Some, like LIFESAVER systems,
deal with the needs of the here and now.
LIFESAVER has developed a bottle-based(and therefore portable) water purica-
tion system that instantly creates potable
water by ltering toxins and other impuri-
ties and has lled a need that ranges from
humanitarian efforts resulting from natural
disasters to individuals traveling to locations
where drinkable water may not be readily
available. Others, like Nanoholdings LLC,
have their sights rmly xed on the future.
Nanoholdings is using cutting-edge nano-
technology to approach energy generationin new, environmentally friendly ways.
Whether focusing on today or tomorrow,
eco-friendly business is here to stay and
sure to grow, offering signicant opportu-
nities for success through innovation.
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Designing your fercest competitor:
arssing h Steep rivrs in
your businss
organization. A mental model is a picture
of how the world actually works. It is
based on data, relationships, and everyday
experiences. While mental models are
somewhat imprecise, subject to change,
and inconsistent, they also are prone to
creativity and/or ashes of insight.
Lets take an example from the airline
industry to illustrate how mental models
work. Executives at an airline brought
with them a mental model of the experi-
ence of ying with their organization that
was composed of elements such as sup-
port, innovation, trust, transparency, andquality. However, stories about the ying
experience on this airline were propagat-
ing across social networks via social media,
forever changing managements notion
of how traditional media work. Data on
interactions with, for example, gate agents,
ight attendants, and baggage handlers
also affected the mental image, as did
While it is easy to consider the STEEP driv-
ers in an abstract manner, its not as easy to
confront them in concrete and immediate
waysthat is, in ways that really can have
an impact on your company. As any leader
knows, organizational change depends
on winning peoples minds and hearts. In
order to begin a process of change, people
need to be affected on both a rational and
an emotional level. An abstract consider-
ation of change that somehow is not very
meaningful today will not get that job done.
Whats needed is a technique that brings
an immediacy to change and that leads to
concrete action steps to deal with it. Anexercise that facilitates designing your
ercest competitor is one such technique.
(See Figure 4.)
Altering the mental model
Everyone who works for, buys from, does
business or interacts in any way with a
company forms a mental model of that
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PwC View Issue 1521
moments of truth, those profound experi-
ences with a companygood or badthat
can remain with consumers for years.
Anticipating a ercest competitor can have
the same impact with regard to altering a
mental model. It is critical that manage-
ment teams learn how to design such a
competitor in order to envision how new
entities might enter their market and dis-
rupt their business.
One way to do this is to ask management to
imagine that they have been red from their
own rm and given access to capital and tal-
ent. Most executives know their companys
weaknessesthe soft underbelly, if you
willand where the opportunities lie in a
market for a rm that can move with a new
model. This exercise helps senior executives
Figure 4: A fercest competitor exercise
Alter your mental model Imagine scenarios involving
disruptive, greenfeld competitors
Apply insights gained
get out of their old mental habits and imag-
ine new ways to compete.
Developing scenarios
Once this is accomplished, the fact base from
the STEEP drivers relevant to the companys
industry can be used to imagine a couple
of scenarios that jump-start a worrisome
conversation. For example, if you are Apple,
as a starting point, you might imagine what
happens to your video business if Microsoft
were to buy Netix and do a distribution
deal with Facebook. Or if you are a prop-
erty and casualty insurance company, you
might imagine what would happen if Google
teamed up with an investment house that
was willing to create a retail insurance prod-
uct, and it used Googles search expertise to
help in underwriting and sales. Under these
hypothetical circumstances, Google could
facilitate the creation of a new-age insurance
rm. In conducting exercises of this sort, we
often suggest that the ercest competitor
be imagined as a greeneld rm because it
helps the senior team be unconstrained by
current capabilities, organizational culture,
performance standards, and norms.
As Clay Christensen has pointed out, compa-
nies are often blind-sided by rms that take
advantage of emerging trends and serve a
lower price/underserved market.10 In short,
we are asking executives to design disruptive
competitors. We nd that by doing this erc-
est competitor exercise, the STEEP drivers
become real in a context senior managemen
can understand and nd motivating on a
rational and an emotional level.
10 The Innovators Dilemma, Harvard Business School Press,
1997.
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be building relationships. STEEP drivers
uncover new complementors, channel
players, and emerging third parties.
Third, and the most difcult, is that the
senior team begins to have ideas for disrup-
tive business designs. The problem for the
CEO is that few organizations have the
right talent, organizational structure, and
funding to build a truly disruptive competi-
torbut it can be done.
Determining successa caveat
While some businesses are poised to
extend their existing models to the next
wave of change to meet the challenge of
a ercest competitor, success is neither
easy nor assured. When the trends portend
a disruptive competitor, we have found
fewif anycompanies that successfully
created disruptive business models within
their own organizations. The winners
usually devise a way to hot-house the
new business model.
Launching new products at Green Mountain Coffee
Applying the insights
The critical leadership question is this:
What does one do with the insights that are
generated from a ercest competitor design
exercise? The output usually comes in three
forms. (See Figure 5.)
First, most executive teams immediately
nd places in their business where they
need to accelerate existing initiatives
or eliminate them so as to focus on the
present and future rather than on the past.
For example, after a ercest competitor
workshop at one major insurance company,
management chose the former approach.
They amped up their direct-to-consumer
strategy because they saw its weakness in
that channel much more clearly. A differ-
ent rm saw that it needed to create a new
product to blunt a possible strategic weak-
ness if and when ination returns.
Second, senior teams pursue partnerships
with outside rms with which they should
At Green Mountain Coffee Roasters,
anticipating its ercest competitor means
applying innovation energy at all levels of
the organization. The ultimate goal? To
generate a revenue stream that grows by
15 percent per year through the introduc-
tion of new hit products.
However, according to Kevin Hartley, Vice
President of Strategy at Green Mountain,
this is easier said than done. While critical
to the launching of hit products, innovation
is not for wimps. Its ugly, and in large or-
ganizations, it collides with the status quo.
Whats needed, he says, is an understand-
ing of the dynamics of the organization,
coupled with an infrastructure that enables
innovation and, consequently, the launch-
ing of hit products. By bringing together
quality coffee and a unique single-serve
delivery system, the Keurig K-Cup single-
serve brewer is a home run for Green
Mountain and is today, as Hartley describes
it, the fastest-growing consumer product
in the US, except for the iPad.
Success, however, doesnt just happen.
It requires infrastructures suitable to the
launching of global hit products, including
individuals who are drivers of innovation,
suitable gatekeepers, and assets that are
aligned with opportunities.
Accelerate or eliminate existing initiatives
Pursue new partnerships
Develop disruptive business designs
Figure 5: Creating a disruptive business model
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PwC View Issue 1523
Hartley refers to individuals who drive
innovation asproducers. A producer,
he says, takes an idea and rams it through
until it exists in the physical world. Produc-
ers are change agents who never give up.
Rather, they take decision makers through
the processes needed to make great new
products real. They lay the groundwork
for infrastructures that enable creation.
When it comes to launching new hit prod-
ucts, every large organization has internal
adjudicators or gatekeepers who can prevent
an idea from reaching its potential. The
solution, says Hartley, is to use world-class
adjudicators, preferably from outside the
organization, who are knowledgeable about
Finally, when launching a global hit product,
its important that assets equal opportuni-
ties. Says Hartley, If you have a vision of a
global hit product, your assetshuman and
nancialmust be appropriately sized to the
opportunity. If youre not going to do that,
you should just forget about innovation.
The team at Green Mountain Coffee
practices what they preach. But they are
not resting on their laurels. According to
Hartley, they intend to apply these principles
to achieving their ultimate objective: We
want to be the worlds largest single-serve
beverage company, he says. And new
global hit products will help us get there.
While some businesses are poised to extend their existing models tothe next wave of change to meet the challenge of a ercest competitor,
success is neither easy nor assured.
One way is to establish disruptive innova-
tions as separate organizational entities
with their own funding and leadership and
with a plan to integrate them after they
grow to scale. If there is a relationship to
the parent, it is usually arms length,
at least until the division grows large
enough to stand on its own. At that time,
it is reintegrated. This is how IBM entered
the personal computer business in the
1980s, and it was how W.W. Grainger
created a market-leading online capability,
Grainger.com, in the mid 1990s. Bottom
line: The more disruptive the business
model is to the parent company, the greater
distance it needs from the core.
There are, however, always the exceptions
that prove the rule. Though its not the
norm, with strong leadership and proper
guidance, disruptive business models can
be incubated closer to home. Cases in point:
Schwab Online and Green Mountain Coffee.
Schwab Online was created within the
overall Schwab structure and eventually
became the core of the new Schwab.
Likewise, Green Mountain Coffee has been
able to incubate radical inventions within
its core business. (See the sidebar below.)
driving vlu
While workshops can be intellectually
stimulating and encourage teamwork, if
value is not the result, the entire exercise
is in vain. If you are going to extract eco-
nomic value from the ercest competitor
design effort, you must look to accelerate
key internal initiatives, constrain others,
create new partnerships, and, in the case
of truly erce designs, avoid being seduced
by the hope that you can incubate this
new model within your own rm without
appropriate distance between the old and
the new. History shows that successful
companies will kill the new idea with kind-
ness if they are kept too close. Like a rogue
relative, a new idea needs time to develop
and mature before returning to the fold. If
your organization lacks the courage to give
new ideas a chance to thrive and grow, the
market will give birth to your worst night-
mare. If it has that courage and exploits it
to the fullest, you will succeed.
the ideas they are judging. The key is to
avoid the tyranny of the check markthe
naysayers who insist, Yeah, we tried that,
it didnt work. Often, when new products
founder, the blame rests with the internal
adjudicators. Because theyre judging new
products, they may lack adequate knowl-
edge of the customer or the market. Big
ideas can get so diluted prior to execution
that they barely resemble the original con-
cept. As Hartley points out, If you want to
set an infrastructure for launching hit prod-
ucts, the purity and power of the idea has to
be exposed to the consumer. Anything less
will result in failure.
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PwC ViewIssue 15
eitrial
Editorial Director
Tom Craren
Managing Editor
Gene Zasadinski
Assistant Managing Editor
Christine Wendin
View points Editor
Angela Pham
Contributing Editors
Mike Brewster
Emily Church
Cecily Dixon
Susan Eggleton
Benjamin Isgur
Sandy Lutz
Susan Poole
Anand RaoBill Sand
Jamie Yoder
onlin
Jeffrey Dreiblatt
Adiba Khan
Scott Schmidt
Jack Teuber
dsign
Odgis + Company
Creative Director
Janet Odgis
Senior Designer
Banu Berker
Designers
Rhian Swierat
T. Chlo Bartholomew
Cntributrs
We thank the following individuals for
their contributions to this issue ofView:
Caroline Calkins-Heine
Steve Lechner
Alfred Peguero
Daryl Walcroft
phtgrahy
AP Images
Brian Bielmann
Corbis Images
Bill Gallery
Getty Images
Andreas Herzau/Laif/Redux
iStockphoto
Vincent Laforet
Chen Ming/Xinhua/Eyevine/Redux
Tommaso Rada/4See/Redux
Reuters Pictures
Brian Smale
Stephen Wilkes
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View magazine is printed at an ISO 14001:2004 certied plant with Forest Stewardship
Council (FSC) Chain o Custody certication (BVCOC-080903). It was printed with the use o
renewable wind power resulting in nearly zero volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions.
The paper used is 10 percent recycled minimum with postconsumer waste.
By printing at a acility that uses wind-generated electricity:
6,440 lbs o greenhouse gases were prevented
equivalent to 5,588 miles not driven in a year
equivalent to planting 438 trees
By using postconsumer recycled ber in lieu o virgin ber:
105,932 gallons o wastewater fow was saved
12,070 lbs o solid waste was not generated
32,676 lbs net o greenhouse gases was prevented
158,000,000 BTUs o energy was not consumed
Source: Environmental Deense Fund paper calculator
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Rear view
Are you designing a disruptive business modelto keep your fercest competitor at bay?
Alter your mental model Apply insights gainedImagine scenarios involving
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