Markov chain Analysis Mike Hoff, Director Institutional Research 10.31.2013.
-
Upload
elian-stoakes -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Markov chain Analysis Mike Hoff, Director Institutional Research 10.31.2013.
ETSUFall 2014 Enrollment Projections
Markov chain Analysis
Mike Hoff, DirectorInstitutional Research
10.31.2013
Enrollment projection goal
• To estimate the ETSU Fall 2014 Enrollment• Use a model that allows for testing
recruitment and retention scenarios• The results will be used to determine how
far from goal, 15,500, ETSU appears to be • To provide data which will inform defining
college level enrollment improvement plans
Assumptions• Assuming a consistent external
environment, and assuming that we make no changes to address recruitment and retention, the enrollment and progression patterns of students by class from year1 to year2 will remain stable– This allows for testing enrollment
improvement plans because the variable impact is real and measurable
• Medicine and Pharmacy Enrollment is approximately stable and recognized as a known quantity
Assumptions continued
• First-time and continuing freshmen can be combined as a total freshmen count
• Masters students, graduate specials, and ed specials can be combined as a total for projection only, but may be divided for goal setting
Model
• Markov chain– Is a time-series model that looks at past practice
to predict future outcome– For enrollment modeling, Markov chain tracks
students, by status, from year1 to year2 allowing the researcher to calculate an recruitment rate and dropout rate by class
– The recruitment and retention rates are applied to the current standing of year2 to students, adding in new inputs by class for year2, to calculate enrollment for year3
Model continued
• Markov chain was chosen because– It is used by other similar institutions, both in-state,
and out-of-state– It uses only institutional data– Studies have shown it is accurate for 1 year
projections• Population based models were rejected due to
reliance on external projections• ARIMA and other SAS projections were rejected
because of complexity without increased accuracy
Timeframe
• Data were collected by year for the years 2008 – 2013,– These years were used to establish a validity test
to understand the margin of error in the model– 2008 was the first year in Banner
• The data were then paired by year into two year groups to allow for projecting the next years enrollment– i.e. 2008 and 2009 were used to project 2010,
etc.
2014 Projected enrollment results of replicating the status quo
YearEstimate
Projected by Model
Actual Difference % Difference
2010 14,860.3 14,952 -91.7 -0.617%
2011 15,188.2 15,250 -61.8 -0.406%
2012 15,428.8 15,133 295.8 1.917%
2013 14,967.2 14,691 276.2 1.845%
2014 14,430 N/A N/A N/A
The projection for each year is a function of the actual enrollments from the two most recent prior years
Credibility: Is there a margin of error?
• Yes, a very slim one, on average +/- 1.196%
• That yields a projected enrollment range of 14,257 – 14,603
• In other words, the model was, based on 4-years history, 98.8% accurate
WHAT HAPPENED TO ALL OUR STUDENTS?
What happened to all our students?
• 39% are leaving, either through graduation or dropout– 19% are graduating– 20% are leaving through dropout
WHO ARE THE UNDERGRADUATE DROPOUTS?
Who are the undergraduate dropouts
College Freshmen Sophomore Junior Senior UG Spec Total % of
Total
ND 277 277 10.1%
UD 284 63 19 1 367 13.4%
AS 360 155 151 175 841 30.7%
BT 199 76 70 94 439 16.0%
CR 94 30 27 21 172 6.3%
CS 12 15 33 52 112 4.1%
ED 77 49 51 40 217 7.9%
NU 111 43 30 50 234 8.5%
PU 31 13 14 24 82 3.0%
Total 1,168 444 395 457 277 2,741 100%
Who are the undergraduate dropouts – (Exclude UD & ND)
College Freshmen Sophomore Junior Senior Total % of Total
AS 360 155 151 175 841 40.1%
BT 199 76 70 94 439 20.9%
CR 94 30 27 21 172 8.2%
CS 12 15 33 52 112 5.3%
ED 77 49 51 40 217 10.4%
NU 111 43 30 50 234 11.2%
PU 31 13 14 24 82 3.9%
Total 884 381 376 456 2,097 100%
Undergraduate data points of note
• 1,100 of the 3,212 New and Continuing Freshmen dropout or stop out
• Sophomore Enrollment is break-even, new & returning students are almost equal to dropouts
• Large Senior population leaving before graduation
WHO ARE THE GRADUATE DROPOUTS?
Who are the graduate dropouts
College Master Grad Special Doctor Total % of Total
ND 97 97 29.5%
AS 44 4 2 50 15.2%
BT 19 1 20 6.0%
CR 5 5 10 3.0%
CS 12 3 15 4.6%
ED 54 7 16 77 23.4%
GS 1 1 0.3%
ME 2 2 0.6%
NU 25 9 7 41 12.5%
PU 9 4 3 16 4.9%
Total 169 125 35 329 100%
Who are the graduate dropouts
College Master Doctor Total % of Total
AS 44 2 46 22.5%
BT 19 19 9.3%
CR 5 5 10 4.9%
CS 12 12 5.9%
ED 54 16 70 34.3%
GS 1 1 0.5%
ME 2 2 1.0%
NU 25 7 32 15.7%
PU 9 3 12 5.9%
Total 169 35 204 100%
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?Who needs to be involved?
THE BUC STOPS HERE!
Student recruitment and retention is everyone's responsibility
Who does it involve? Actions by offices such as these…
The Role of Colleges, Departments, and Programs
RecruitmentRetention
What must we do
• For ETSU to reach the 15,500 goal we must increase recruitment by 8% and retention by 6.5% or some combination yielding at least 1,070 students
• An 8% increase in recruitment is 440 students
• A 6.5% increase in retention equals 630 students
RECRUITMENT
Everyone recruits!Category Weight Recruitment
Goal
Freshmen 38% 167
Sophomore 14% 62
Junior 13% 57
Senior 15% 66
Undergraduate Special 9% 40
Masters 10% 44
Doctoral 1% 4
Total 100% 440
Recruitment goals by collegeCollege
Weight Recruitment Goal
AS 35% 154
BT 19% 84
CR 8% 35
CS 4% 17
ED 17% 75
NU 13% 57
PU 4% 18
Total 100% 440
RETENTION
Retention is not just a freshmen problem!
Category Retention Goal Dropout % of Dropout
Freshmen 239 1168 20.5%
Sophomore 88 444 19.8%
Junior 82 395 20.8%
Senior 95 457 20.8%
Undergraduate Special 57 277 20.6%
Masters 63 294 21.4%
Doctoral 6 35 17.1%
Total 630 3070 20.5%
Retention goals by student level
Category Weight RetentionGoal
Freshmen 38% 239
Sophomore 14% 88
Junior 13% 82
Senior 15% 95
Undergraduate Special 9% 57
Masters 10% 63
Doctoral 1% 6
Total 100% 630
Retention goals by college
College Weight Retention Goal
AS 35% 220
BT 19% 121
CR 8% 50
CS 4% 25
ED 17% 107
NU 13% 82
PU 4% 25
Total 100% 630
COLLEGE LEVEL RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION GOALS
Overall recruitment and retention goals by college
College Weight Recruitment Increase
RetentionIncrease
Total Increase
AS 35% 154 220 374
BT 19% 84 121 205
CR 8% 35 50 85
CS 4% 17 25 42
ED 17% 75 107 182
NU 13% 57 82 139
PU 4% 18 25 43
Total 100% 440 630 1,070
What is my part of the pie?
• We created the breakdown by college to ensure that as we grow we maintain the proportional distribution of students
• These goals will be achieved through a mix of college level and university level activities
• The goal today is to identify what is the most reasonable distribution of that responsibility
Recruitment: Working Hypothesis
• Why are students coming?– Undergraduate• A majority of the work is being done by offices
charged with carrying out that function effectively• Smaller share of the work is being carried out by
colleges departments
– Graduate• Colleges, departments, programs, and faculty
play a more direct role in recruitment
Retention: Working Hypothesis
• Why are students staying?– Undergraduate• A majority of the work is being carried out by
colleges, departments, programs and faculty• Smaller share of the work done by offices
charged with carrying out that function effectively
– Graduate• An even larger majority of the work is being
carried out by colleges, departments, programs, and faculty
Options
• Status Quo– Keep doing the same thing and assume
things will ‘work out’• Change– Use data to develop a plan to have a
positive impact on student retention, and enrollment
Results of the status quo
• Absent a well executed, and successful, enrollment improvement plan ETSU’s enrollment in Fall 2014 is projected to be 14,430– 1,070 students short of 15,500 goal
“Status Quo means falling behind”
Final reflections on the status quo
• Model was 98% accurate over the past 4 years
• Model shows we are down, to-goal, 1,070 students
• Reaching the goal is best achieved through a combination of Recruitment and Retention
Your Goal: Discuss College Level Enrollment Improvement Plans
Request: Present a plan in which you believe!• Plans:
– Must be college specific– Must be focused on the proportional share of enrollment
improvement, using the framework of the working hypothesis– Must be transparent in depicting college engagement for bona
fide improvement tactics– Will be assessed using the overall enrollment goals presented
• Each plan must clearly and convincingly make the case for achieving a defined percentage of the college recruitment and retention goals
– Must include both recruitment and retention initiatives– Will be used to evaluate, by college, positions requested
pending available funds– Should depict college assessment of risk
Don’t limit your plan
• Consider– Pedagogy & Delivery Systems– Curriculum
• Bridge Courses
– New Markets (International & Domestic)– New Collaborations– Alternative Schedules & Calendars– New Partnerships– New Student Populations
• With distinctive career goals• Students who cannot come to main campus (ex. E-Learning,
International, Out-of-state, etc.)• Trade impacted workers
– Service to others
Recruitment Responsibility
• What responsibility for recruitment should reasonably reside with – – Individual College, Academic Department,
Program, and Faculty– Administrative and Academic Support
functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility
Retention Responsibility
• What responsibility for retention should reasonably reside with – – Individual College, Academic Department,
Program, and Faculty– Administrative and Academic Support
functions (e.g. undergraduate admissions, graduate school, financial aid, scholarships, bursar, registrar, etc.) and any other office with significant customer service responsibility
STUDENT SUCCESS THROUGHFOCUSED
RECRUITMENT AND RETENTION ENROLLMENT
PLANNING