November 2015 Manhattan Beach Real Estate Market Trends Update
Market update november 2013
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Transcript of Market update november 2013
Market Update November 2013
Relate Empower Deliver
Disclaimer
Relate Empower Deliver, Australian Financial Services Licence No. 306552, Level 4, 111 Coventry Street, South Melbourne VIC 3205.
This contents of this presentation has been prepared solely and entirely for educational purposes and debate. They represent the personal views of the presenter. They may or may not align with what you hold to be true. No part of this can be in any way construed as advice, specific or general.
The business of trading carries risks and specific advice must be obtained prior to commencement.
Key points
Market disconnect Prices and momentum remain positive While the underlying economics remain less
convincing Result of unprecedented Central Bank stimulus Withdrawal of which will have implications for
markets
Momentum is positive for most equity markets
Emerging Markets
Western Developed Markets
Asian Markets
Australian All Ordinaries
Australian All Ordinaries
Australian All Ordinaries
Despite the generally lacklustre economic data from the G7 economies
Investment - global trend
Aus Private Investments
Mining vs Non Mining
Non Mining Laggards
Lending rates
Business Confidence
GDP
What are the likely risk triggers?
Q.E. and Tapering
The incoming Chair of the US Federal Reserve has bought markets a few months it would seem
Before we see a slowdown in the asset purchase programme
Bond market Funds are already showing losses on their books
As they suffer net outflows for 5th straight months E.M. bonds fare the worst
U.S. Mutual Fund - Flows
10/16/2013
10/23/2013
10/30/2013 11/6/2013 11/13/201
3 Total Equity 2,805 13,582 7,947 9,072 7,254 Domestic 701 9,209 4,301 5,432 3,973 World 2,104 4,373 3,646 3,640 3,281 Hybrid 618 2,391 2,084 1,394 1,475 Total Bond -5,453 -2,386 -4,301 -4,260 -7,568 Taxable -3,604 -1,363 -3,514 -3,428 -6,434 Municipal -1,849 -1,023 -787 -833 -1,134 Total -2,030 13,588 5,730 6,206 1,161
Credit risk default
The risk of credit default looms large With a spike in cost of capital very probable When long term fixed income investors demand a
higher return to lend to sovereigns, states, municipals and corporations.
Short term rates
Long term rates
Normal return model
Data tells a different tale
H.S Dent Jr
Premium and froth conditions in technology and to a lesser extent in real estate
Profits not required
Pininterest Square Box Evernote Instagram Snapchat Twitter
Tech bubble?
Maxim of “build it and they will come” Not about profits – not yet anyway “Value per user” metrics preferred Assumption that the metrics can be monetise
sometime in future For some, perhaps Though many will fail A paradigm shift? I think not.
Eight months ago, Snapchat was valued at $70 million. Today, it is valued at $4 billion, even though it has zero revenue.
Six months ago, Pinterest was valued at $2.5 billion. Today, it is valued at $3.8 billion — and no revenue there, either.
And last week news broke that Dropbox was said to be seeking a new round of funding that would value the company at $8 billion, up from $4 billion a year ago.
New Tech
Old Tech
Property
Artificial boost from concessional tax regimes can change
Credit squeeze from fallout in equities and bonds pose some risk
Less transparent compared to regulated markets
In closing
We follow the broad positive lead from stocks until a discernible change in the present momentum
Look for cracks approaching the Feb 2014 earnings season
Continue to favour a short term view on markets by maintaining a dynamic tilt to strategic asset allocation
Prudent for borrowers to fix the rate on a portion of loans
Thank you
Relate Empower Deliver