November 2021 Market Update

November 2021 – Market Update

Forward Looking Statements

This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements may include, but are

not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such

statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. These

risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economic impact and operating impacts of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, the potential drop in oil

demand/production and its impact on the availability and price of sulfur, political and economic instability and changes in government policies in Brazil and other

countries in which we have operations; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and

transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution

channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and

exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic’s international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates,

including the performance of the Wa’ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development and commencement of operations of

production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; difficulties with

realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially

anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its term or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the term are at levels at which the pricing is

disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic’s decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in

environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other

greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of

excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that

Mosaic’s operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to

necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic’s

processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the

United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from

management’s current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian

resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic’s available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or

available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic’s potash mines; other accidents and disruptions

involving Mosaic’s operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks

associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company’s reports filed

with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements.

Rapid run-up of fertilizer prices has pushed affordability index up despite crop prices remaining generally elevated

3

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21

2018=100 Commodity PricesIndexed Daily Close of Front Month Contract

Corn Soy Wheat Palm Oil

Source: CME; MDEX

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21

Plant Nutrient AffordabilityPlant Nutrient Price Index / Crop Price Index

Affordability Metric Average 2010-present

Sources: Weekly Price Publications, CME, USDA, AAPFCO, Mosaic

Data through October 28, 2021

Less Affordable

More Affordable

As fertilizer prices have continued to rise, the affordability

index is climbing to the levels seen in 2008/09. However,

demand continues to be robust and unlike in 2008 global

channel inventories continue to be thin. Also important to

note is that P&K prices remain well below the peaks of 2008.

Commodity Current Price YTD Y-o-Y

Corn $5.63/bu +16% +40%

Soybean $12.34/bu -6% +17%

Wheat (HRW) $7.90/bu +32% +45%

Palm Oil MYR 5,310/t +34% +63%


0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Jan '07 Jan '09 Jan '11 Jan '13 Jan '15 Jan '17 Jan '19 Jan '21

$ per tonne Global DAP/MAP Benchmark PricesPublished Spot Prices

DAP, NOLA DAP, India MAP, NOLA MAP, Brazil

Sources: Argus; Green Markets, Fertecon, ICIS

Phosphate: Supply disruptions have accelerated pricing momentum in 2021; still well below 2008 peak

4

Phosphate prices in 2021:

• NOLA DAP + $312/ tonne

• NOLA MAP + $355 / tonne

• Brazil MAP + $385 / tonne

• India DAP + $408 / tonne

*weekly average reported spot pricing for prompt delivery


150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500


$ per TonneHigh-Analysis Phosphate Global Net Price

Calculated from Published Weekly Spot Prices

Source: Argus, Mosaic

Phosphate: Industry margins moved higher in Q3

5


• Phosphate industry margins –

using the global net price as a

proxy – continued to move higher in

Q3 on strong fertilizer pricing and

broadly flat raw material pricing.

Global net price averages several global price benchmarks for finished phosphates and raw materials. It does not include any

handling, storage, transportation or conversion costs.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Jan '20 Apr '20 Jul '20 Oct '20 Jan '21 Apr '21 Jul '21 Oct '21

$/MMBtu European Natural Gas Futures PricesDutch TTF

Source: NYMEX

Sulphur prices moderated but ammonia prices moved higher on rising gas prices and tight nitrogen supply

6

• Recent hike in European gas prices prompted several

regional nitrogen producers to stop/curtail production in

September/October.

• Strong demand combined with reduced supply is fueling a

further increase in global nitrogen prices in Q4.

• This supply/cost push is expected to feature

through Q1 2022.

• Sulphur price (Q3) settled down $12/LT q-o-q, but is

up $114/LT y-o-y.

• Tampa ammonia settled at $825/MT for November, up

$590/MT y-o-y and up $160/MT from October.

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

200

400

600

800

1000


Sulphur$/LT

Ammonia$/MT

Weekly Raw Materials Pricesc&f Tampa

Ammonia Sulphur

Source: Argus

Data through October 28, 2021 Data through October 28, 2021

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Jan '18 Jul '18 Jan '19 Jul '19 Jan '20 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21

$/MMBtuHenry Hub Natural Gas

Daily Close of Front Month Contract

Source: NYMEX

U.S. drilling activity has thus far been slow to respond to higher prices

7

• Drilling activity, particularly for gas, has been slow to ramp up despite sharply higher prices since July 2020, as

oil/gas producers appear to have shifted their focus from growth to margin.

• We expect the current energy spike to correct lower post winter, which should in turn bring about greater

ammonia supply and lower pricing.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan '18 Jul '18 Jan '19 Jul '19 Jan '20 Jul '20 Jan '21 Jul '21

U.S. Gas and Oil Rig Counts (Baker Hughes)

Oil Rigs

Gas Rigs

Source: The American Gas & Oil Reporter


2.4

1.6

3.2

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2019 2020 2021

U.S. Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

2021 Q1-Q3 Regional Phosphate Roundup

8Source: Genscape, China Customs, Siaesp, TDM, Mosaic

U.S. imports from

offshore sources

remained elevated

through Q3. Total

imports rebounded

102% or over 1.6mmt

y-o-y.

DAP import arrivals

dropped to <200kt a

month in Aug/Sep.

YTD Indian imports

plummeted 42% or

over 2mmt y-o-y to

2.8mmt – the 2nd

lowest level in a

decade.

China had another

record quarter for

phosphate exports in Q3

as producers tried to

beat more stringent

government export

restrictions. Total YTD

exports were up 46% or

almost 3.2mmt y-o-y

The pace of imports

continued to accelerate

in Q3. Brazilian

phosphate imports during

the first nine months of

the year were up 1.7mmt

or 28% y-o-y.

4.44.9

2.8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

2019 2020 2021

India Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP

7.96.9

10.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2019 2020 2021

China Q1-Q3 ExportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/TSP

5.56.1

7.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

2019 2020 2021

Brazil Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

U.S. phosphate fertilizer imports remained elevated through Q3

9

• Strong demand in the U.S.

attracted products from a

more diversified supply

base.

• Imports through September

were more than double the

same period a year ago.

• Heavy vessel lineup extends

into October (at least).

• Our estimates of channel

inventories continue to point

towards below average

levels, as domestic demand

clearly shifted higher.

• Includes volumes from Morocco for bonded shipment to Canada via the U.S.

• Other origins include Australia, Bulgaria, Egypt, Lebanon, Senegal, Turkey.

Source: Genscape; market publications, Mosaic

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Q12020

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12021

Q2 Q3

Mil TonnesU.S. Offshore Phosphate Imports

(DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP)

Other

Tunisia

Jordan

Mexico

Saudi

Israel

Russia+Lithuania

Morocco

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil TonnesGlobal Phosphate Shipments

DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

Global Phosphate Demand

10

75 - 78

* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

• We revised our forecast of global phosphate shipments to less than 76mmt in 2021, primarily on meaningful downward revisions to our forecasts for China and India (which sets the stage for a lift from pent-up demand in 2022).

• Our preliminary forecast for 2022 calls for flat to moderately higher shipments to a range of 75-78mmt, as a recovery of shipments in China and India is partially offset by flat to slightly lower shipments in some other geographies (with demand expected to be curbed in places due to current higher pricing levels that we expect to persist).

• It is important to note that there remains considerable upside to our base case.

1.2

-0.4

1.5

-0.1

0.2

-2.3

0.6

-1.5

0.8

-4.5

-3.5

-2.5

-1.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

2021E 2022F

YoY Changes of Phosphate Shipments(Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPs/TSP)

China

India

Other Asia

Brazil

Other L Amer

Europe+FSU

North America

Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region

11

DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSP

Mil Tonnes2020 2021E

Low

2022F

High

2022FComments

China 18.8 17.3 18.0 18.5

We expect domestic phosphate shipments to be reduced 8% in 2021 despite strong ag fundamentals throughout most of the year, as robust

export markets limited domestic availability and higher prices resulted in some cautious fill buying. Even with export restrictions taking affect in

Q4 and the need for inventory building, a slowed pace in production will likely limit shipment growth to close out the year. While production is up

12% over last year’s COVID-impacted levels (through September), we expect the pace to slow due to power/coal consumption restrictions and

resulting energy and ammonia availability and price. The reduction in 2021 shipments, however, is expected to lead to pent-up demand that

should boost 2022 shipments.

India 11.5 9.2 9.7 10.2

India phosphate shipments are forecast to drop a dramatic 20% in 2021 due largely to limited supplies (as farmer demand has been relatively

robust). DAP imports are down 42% y-o-y (through September) as India’s MRP and subsidy levels have made it the lowest netback market and

have kept importer economics and domestic production in the red (production is down 18% y-o-y). This has led to a significant decline in stocks

(down 69% y-o-y) and notable pent-up demand that should result in higher 2022 shipments, though we are currently taking a rather cautious

stance on a rebound. The extent of the forecast increase in ‘22 shipments will be heavily dependent on further adjustments to subsidy levels, as

recent ones have thus far not been sufficient, while global prices are expected to remain at current elevated levels through at least H1 2022.

Other Asia/Oceania 10.1 10.3 10.0 10.3

Favorable weather patterns in the region and strong farmer economics have supported demand growth this year, and trade data shows multiple

importing nations (Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc.) in the region registering double-digit import growth y-o-y through September. We have

assumed a modest Q4 slowdown in total regional imports from the strong YTD pace, believing that prevailing prices may cause some deferral into

2022. Affordability is expected to curb demand only slightly in 2022, as grower economics remain solid for many regional crops.

Brazil 9.6 11.1 10.8 11.2

We project 2021 phosphate shipments in Brazil to surge to just over 11mmt. Phosphate imports were up a whopping 28.5% y-o-y through Q3 due

to strong demand and lower domestic production. This growth is expected to continue in Q4, but the current price environment is expected to slow

the pace of growth. As we look to 2022, farm economics are expected to remain decent (though not as strong as seen in recent years), and as

such, fertilizer shipments in 2022 are expected to be flat to lower.

North America 9.6 10.8 10.2 10.6Strong ag commodity prices and high planted acreage drove on-farm demand sharply higher in Spring ‘21 and current fertilizer prices have yet to

meaningfully impact Fall demand. As such, we expect 2021 shipments to come in near 10.8 mmt (the highest year on record). However, as

fertilizer prices and other input costs remain elevated going into 2022, there is the potential for shipments to pull back modestly.

Europe and FSU 7.1 7.3 7.1 7.5

The expectation of typical Fall demand in Europe coupled with steady expansion in the FSU have supported marginal y-o-y growth in the region.

Rapid increases of fertilizer prices may lead to some cautious Q4 buying in Europe (though not seen as yet), offsetting some of the strong pace

seen earlier this year, while Russian shipment growth seems more secure given steps taken to ensure supply and stabilize prices. Looking forward

to 2022, we expect generally flat shipments.

Other 9.4 9.7 9.2 9.7We expect demand to post slight gains in 2021 on the back of solid ag fundamentals globally. For 2022, we expect demand to be trimmed due to

affordability concerns, particularly in Africa, while shipments to Latin America (ex-Brazil) and the Middle East should be more resilient.

Total 76.0 75.6 75.0 78.0

Due to the sizable downward revisions made to our China and India 2021 shipment forecasts, total global shipments are now expected to remain

relatively flat vs. 2020. A few production setbacks and rising fertilizer prices have slowed shipments in the latter half of the year, along with India

MRP and subsidy levels curbing their ability to import. Despite this downward revision in shipments, channel inventories remain tight, which

bodes well for shipment expectations in 2022, even at current elevated pricing levels. Our initial view of global 2022 shipments is in the range 75-

78 mmt, with a point estimate in the middle of the range at 76.4mmt representing 1.1% y-o-y growth.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(regional figures may not sum to total due to rounding)

* NPS products included in this analysis are NP and NPS products with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

November 2021

2021E and 2022F Major Phosphate Market Demand Summary

12Source: CRU and Mosaic

Total North America

shipments are expected

to moderate from the

record-high level seen

in 2021 (this assumes

no meaningful

restocking of channel

inventories).

Low DAP supply likely

will drag total India

shipments down by

~2mmt this year.

Extremely low in-country

inventories may force the

government to consider

higher subsidy to secure

supply to meet strong

farmer appetite for DAP.

After 2 consecutive years of

double-digit growth, we

forecast Brazilian

shipments to stay flat or

retreat slightly in 2022 due

to tempered, though still

positive, grower economics.

China’s phosphate

shipments this year are

estimated to decline y-o-y

with a subdued H2. We

expect domestic shipments

to recover in 2022 on solid

farmer economics and some

help from the government to

keep products in the

country.

9.6

10.8

8

9

10

11

20 21E 22F

North AmericaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

18.8

17.3

14

16

18

20

20 21E 22F

ChinaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

11.5

9.2

6

8

10

12

20 21E 22F

IndiaMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

9.6

11.1

8

9

10

11

12

20 21E 22F

BrazilMil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

10.2 – 10.618.0 – 18.5

10.8 – 11.2

9.7 – 10.2

Phosphate S/D: Relatively balanced market suggests stable / elevated 2022 pricing; China+India are the key swing factors

13

Phosphate Supply / Demand Forecast

(Incremental Y-o-Y Change)

Mil Tonnes DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP 2020E 2021F 2022F Comments

Projected Shipment Changes 3.94 -0.44 0.83

Percent Change 5.5% -0.6% 1.1%

Potential Supply Changes 0.29 -0.19 1.12

Base Case China Export Change -0.69 1.38 -1.84Lower exports in Q4 '20 and Q1 '21 due to export restrictions; rebound in domestic

demand in '21 and continued production switch away to PPA-based products.

OCP Ramp-ups and Debottlenecking 1.50 0.05 0.68 Line F commissioning delayed: Assume end-'21 and full capacity end-'22.

MWSPC Ramp-Up -0.11 0.34 0.40 Production recovers after setback in 2020; full capacity in 2022.

GCT M'dilla Commissioning / Ramp-up 0.00 0.09 0.09 Reports of higher downstream output this year, but labor unrest remains an issue.

Turkey/Egypt Greenfields 0.27 0.11 0.07 We assume both projects achieve full utilization in 2021.

Russian Expansions 0.00 0.15 0.15 Incremental volumes from PhosAgro Volkhov.

Other FSU Expansions 0.00 0.00 0.09 Kazphosphate 480kt P2O5 expansion included in Q4 '22 after significant delays.

Other Ramp-Ups / Closures -0.13 0.00 0.00 Includes Eurochem Salitre project in 2023.

Misc. Known Operational Changes -0.55 -2.30 1.50Primarily COVID-19 Curtailments in '20; Misc outages and op. rate changes in '21 -

e.g. in U.S. (MOS and Itafos), India, Brazil and S. Africa.; Rebounds forecast in 2022.

S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -3.65 0.26 0.29

Source: Mosaic

Flat to lower shipments in multiple geographies in 2022 is more than offset by

moderate demand recovery in China and India.

The 2021 “surplus” depicted above is driven by a small

producer inventory build in China in Q4 2021 after

shortfalls to domestic demand and export restrictions.

Note that the small “surplus” in 2022 could easily be dwarfed

by a larger shipment recovery in China/India, and in any event

does little to rebuild very depleted channel inventories globally

(remember the huge drawdown implied in 2020).

Phosphate: DAP inventory in India has dropped to dangerously low levels – expect an import rebound

14Source: India Department of Fertilizer and CPFIA

Channel Inventory: India inventory figures provide a stark

example of supply tightness:

• Total inventories in late-October are 3.1mmt or 69%

lower y-o-y.

Producer Inventory: China producers inventory figures

remain subdued:

• Inventory as of the end of August of 1.15mmt were 28%

or 0.75mmt lower y-o-y.

• Expect these to recover modestly in Q4 due to the export

restrictions imposed (though we do not expect these to

be burdensome as domestic demand rebounds in

2022 and domestic production faces headwinds).

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21

Mil Tonnes India DAP Inventory

Trade Company

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21

Mil Tonnes

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

China DAP/MAP Producers Inventory

MAP DAP

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports

DAP TSP MAP/NPS Forecast Range

Brazil Phosphates

15

2020 4% or

43 kt y-o-y

Source: ANDA, Siacesp, Mosaic

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes Brazil Phosphate Imports(DAP/MAP/TSP/NPS)

2019=6.8mmt 2020=8mmt 2021=10mmt

2021 Q1-Q3

28% or

1.7mmt y-o-y

• The Brazilian fertilizer market is forecast to grow to a record of ~44mmt in 2021. Total Brazilian phosphate imports likely will top

~10.0mmt in 2021.

• Our 2022 expectations have been tempered, as the rapid surge of fertilizer (and other) costs constrains farmer economics.

Domestic production is also likely to rebound (down ~500kt in 2021) and reduce import demand in 2022.

9.5 – 10.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports

Actual/Estimate Forecast Range

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes India DAP Imports

2019=5.6mmt 2020=6.3mmt 2021=4.8mmt

India DAP

16

2021 Q1-Q3

42% or

2.0mmt y-o-y

• DAP imports were down more than 2.0mmt during the first three quarters of the year. We expect import arrivals to rebound to

~2.0mmt in Q4 based on heavy lineups in October and high shipment expectations in November.

• Together with the ~700kt decline in DAP fabrication, total shipments are likely to be down by ~2.0mmt this year.

• We expect DAP imports to rebound in 2022 to meet strong demand, though a more workable (for importers and producers)

subsidy regime is necessary.

4.8 – 5.3

Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic

The incentive to produce more DAP is low due to elevated raw material prices / insufficient subsidy

17

-88

-39

44

-46

-131

-98

-2

-130

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

20:20:0:13 10:26:26 12:32:16 DAP

$ per tonne Producer Margin for DAP vs NPKs

$1,160 $1,330

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mil Tonnes

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

India DAP Production

Min/Max Range (16-20) 2021 2020

Acid prices

1,000 Tonnes 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Change Pct Chg

DAP 3,643 2,737 3,472 3,023 2,472 -551 -18.2%

Annual Total 4,826 3,552 4,752 4,120 -

January-September 2021 vs. 2020

India DAP Production • Q4 phosacid contract at $1,330/t P2O5 (+$170 from Q3)

and DAP purchase at $780/t CFR continued to suggest

that the government needs to further increase subsidy

in order to provide the economic incentive to

significantly boost DAP supply.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports

TSP MAP DAP Forecast Range

China Phosphates

18

• Phosphate exports exceeded earlier expectations in Q3 and came in at over 4.0mmt for the quarter. Export CIQ controls

became effective on Oct 15th, and we expect phosphate exports to drop in Q4.

• Furthermore, strict energy consumption control could weigh on phosphate production in Q4 (potentially 700-800kt reduction).

• Our base case assumes export restrictions to last through Q1 (exports down to ~500kt). In conjunction with lower production

(switching to industrial markets) and a recovery of domestic shipments (to around 3-year averages), we forecast China

exports to range 8.8-9.4mmt in 2022.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes China Phosphate Exports

2019=10.1mmt 2020=9.3mmt 2021=10.7mmt

2021 Q1-Q3

46% or

3.16mmt y-o-y

Source: China Customs and Mosaic

8.8 – 9.4

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F 23F 24F 25F

UtilizationMil TonnesGlobal Phosphate Shipments

DAP/MAP/NPS/TSP

Actual/Estimates Mosaic Forecast Ranges

CRU - July 2021 Capacity Utilization

Phosphate Outlook

19

• We expect industry operating rates to

hold relatively stable around the

current historically-elevated rates

unless additional new projects are

announced/commissioned later in the

forecast period.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

~2.2% CAGR ~1.7% CAGR

* NPS products included in this analysis are those with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater.

Potash: Prices continued their upward trajectory on tight market conditions in Q3

20

*weekly average reported spot pricing for prompt delivery

Data October 28, 2021

• Cornbelt prices are up over

$446/MT since January 2021.

• The tight market situation in

Brazil pushed prices to near

$800/MT at the end of October.

• Prices in SE Asia rose rapidly in

Q3 to circa $600/MT.

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100


$ per tonne

Source: Argus; Green Markets

Published MOP Prices

c&f SE Asia delivered Corn Belt c&f Brazil

Potash prices in 2021:

• SE Asia + $350/ tonne

• Cornbelt + $446 / tonne

• Brazil + $548 / tonne

2021 Q1-Q3 Regional Potash Roundup

21Source: Genscape, China Customs, Siaesp, TDM, Mosaic

Steady vessel lineups

kept U.S. offshore

imports at elevated

levels in Q3. Total

imports jumped 85% or

980kt from a year ago

on very strong demand.

Indian imports were

down 32% or 1.16mmt

y-o-y, as rising prices

internationally have

made India amongst

the lowest netback

markets globally.

7.86.8

6.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2019 2020 2021

China Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl

3.33.6

2.5

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2019 2020 2021

India Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl

China gross MOP

imports remained at

relatively low levels in

Q3 and that brought

total arrivals to almost

6.1mmt, down 11% or

740kt y-o-y from last

year’s already low level.

Brazilian MOP imports

peaked in July but

remained at over

~1.1mmt a month.

Imports Jan-Sep

exceeded 9mmt and

were up 13% or

~1.0mmt y-o-y.

1.41.2

2.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

2019 2020 2021

U.S. Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl (offshore)

8.0 8.09.1

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2019 2020 2021

Brazil Q1-Q3 ImportsMil Tonnes KCl

Indonesia and Malaysia MOP imports rebounded to more healthy levels on strong CPO prices this year

22

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

Jan '10 Jan '12 Jan '14 Jan '16 Jan '18 Jan '20

Ringgits/MT Malaysian Palm OilDaily Close of Front Month Contract

Source: CRB

27%

31%

43%

30%

23%

32%

39%

35%

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0


Mil Tonnes Indonesia + Malaysia MOP Imports(cumulative)

Min/Max Range (16-20) 2021 2020

Source: TDM


• MOP imports, as reported by TDM, were up 35% y-o-y in Indonesia (+32%) and Malaysia (+42%) and we expect that to

potentially reach 5.2mmt by the end of this year.

• CPO prices remained volatile at very high levels due to strong vegetable oil and crude oil prices, lower-than-expected

recovery of palm oil production and solid demand.

U.S. MOP imports have slowed to a more ‘normal’ level in Q3

23

• Very large spring demand

and depleted inventories to

start the year has

prompted strong import

demand.

• Imports from Belarus have

yet to recede.

• Q4 imports are expected to

remain in the 450-550kt

range.

Source: Genscape; USDOC, Mosaic

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

Q12020

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12021

Q2 Q3

Mil Tonnes U.S. Offshore MOP Imports

Other

Germany

Israel

Belarus

Russia

• Other includes Jordan

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil TonnesKCl Global MOP Shipments

Global Potash Demand

24

Source: IFA, CRU, TFI and Mosaic

69.5 – 72.5

• We maintain our forecast for global MOP shipments in 2021 at ~70mmt, as downward revisions of China and

India were offset by higher forecasts for SE Asia and North America.

• Our preliminary forecast for 2022 calls for ~1.5% growth, primarily driven by our cautious view on recovery in

China and India and continued growth in SE Asia.

0.4 -0.2

0.6

1.2

-0.4

1.0

-0.1

0.9

0.5

-1.5

0.7

-1.6

0.6

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2021E 2022F

YoY Changes of MOP Shipments(Mil Tonnes KCl)

China

India

Indonesia+Malaysia

Latin America

North America

Europe+FSU

Other

Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region

25

Muriate of Potash

Mil Tonnes KCl2020 2021E

Low

2022F

High

2022FComments

China 16.4 14.8 15.3 15.7

We revised down China MOP shipments this year to less than 15.0mmt. Lower domestic supply (lower production and producer inventories)

and lower imports (due to the low contract price disincentivizing suppliers to maintain historical volumes) reduced availabil ity, while delayed

crop harvest and autumn planting dampened Fall potash demand. As a result of this latter issue, port offtake has slowed down in recent weeks

and port inventories creeped back up to ~2.6mmt by late-October. For 2022, we forecast MOP imports to rebound (assuming a timely

settlement of a new contract) on a need to refill the in-country pipeline and to satisfy moderate demand growth.

India 5.1 3.6 4.0 4.4

Lack of availability and impractical subsidy/import pricing dragged down potash shipments this year and we have revised our forecast ~450kt

lower. MOP imports likely will drop to ~3.5mmt in 2021, the 2nd lowest level in more than a decade. With inventories dropping to very low levels

(-61% y-o-y) by late-October and large pent-up demand (due to solid farmer economics), we project MOP shipments to rebound by ~0.7mmt

next year (recovering about half of the reduction in ‘21), though adjustments to subsidy (and/or MRP) are likely necessary to achieve this.

Indonesia & Malaysia 4.3 5.2 5.5 5.9CPO prices will likely remain volatile at elevated levels in 2022 on tight supply, lifting already-positive demand prospects. MOP imports in

Indonesia and Malaysia were up 35% y-o-y through August despite COVID-related labor/logistics restrictions at the plantations, and we have

revised our 2021 forecast ~250kt higher. We forecast MOP imports to grow again in 2022 and exceed the previous peak of 5.4mmt (in 2018).

Other Asia 4.9 5.2 4.9 5.1Our 2021 forecast is unchanged. Regional imports are expected to slow down in Q4 (partly due to low seasonal requirements in some

markets) and could remain subdued as buyers awaits new price signals from contract negotiations in China and India over the next few

months. MOP imports are projected to slip slightly in 2022 from record or near-record levels this year as affordability weighs on demand.

W. Europe 5.0 5.2 5.0 5.2Shipments in 2021 have exceeded prior expectations. We forecast potash shipments be just slightly lower in 2022 on healthy farmer balance

sheets, but we are monitoring how elevated farm input costs (nitrogen in particular) could curb potash demand in the region.

E. Europe & FSU 5.9 6.3 6.3 6.5 We continue to expect the market to grow next year in the face of healthy farm economics and favorable support policies.

Brazil 11.3 12.1 11.7 12.1Strong ag fundamentals fueled solid growth in crop nutrient demand this year, with total fertilizer shipments expected to reach a record of

~44mmt, up ~3.5mmt y-o-y Full year MOP imports are forecast to set another record, likely topping 11.7mmt, up almost 7% y-o-y. We took a

conservative view of 2022 prospects, as grower profitability shrinks from the very lofty levels seen the prior two years.

Other L. America 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.2 2021 shipments have been revised slightly higher, but the surge in fertilizer prices is expected to crimp potash demand slightly in 2022.

North America 10.4 11.6 11.0 11.3We revised North American shipments ~300kt higher to ~11.6mmt in 2021 (a record-high) as grower demand continued to surprise us to the

upside. Despite strong imports year-to-date (+85% y-o-y Jan-Sep) and little-improved domestic output, prices continued to rise on supply

concerns, healthy fall demand and low channel inventory. We project shipments to moderate in 2022, assuming no or minimal channel refill.

Other 2.9 3.0 2.8 3.1The combined demand in this market (Oceania, Middle East and Africa) is expected to stay relatively flat in 2022 although the risk profile skews

to the low side of the range due to affordability concerns, most notably in Africa.

Total 69.3 70.2 69.5 72.5We maintain our forecast for global MOP shipments in 2021 at ~70mmt and our preliminary forecast for 2022 shows a range of 69.5-72.5mmt,

with a point estimate in the upper half of the range at 71.3mmt, representing ~1.5% growth. There remains meaningful upside to the forecast if

the recoveries in China and India exceed our cautious expectations.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic(numbers may not sum to total due to rounding)

November 2021

2021E and 2022F Major Potash Market Demand Summary

26Source: CRU and Mosaic

Record-setting

shipments of 11.6mmt

in North America for

2021 are expected to

moderate as higher

prices trim demand

(but without

meaningful channel

stock recovery).

Imports to India will

show a sharp drop in

2021, but pent-up

demand and an empty

channel should result

in at least a moderate

rebound next year.

Additional subsidy will

be key.

After 2 consecutive years

of double-digit growth, we

forecast Brazilian

shipments to stay flat or

retreat slightly in 2022 due

to tempered, though still

positive, grower

economics.

Elevated CPO prices and

improving logistics

underpin strong potash

demand in Malaysia and

Indonesia. Total MOP

imports are forecast to

recover to over 5.0mmt in

2021 and over 5.5mmt in

2022.

10.4

11.6

8

9

10

11

12

20 21E 22F

North AmericaMil Tonnes KCl

11.3

12.1

9

10

11

12

13

20 21E 22F

BrazilMil Tonnes KCl

5.1

3.6

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

20 21E 22F

IndiaMil Tonnes KCl

4.3

5.2

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

20 21E 22F

Malaysia and IndonesiaMil Tonnes KCl

11.0 – 11.3

4.0 – 4.4

11.7 – 12.1

5.5 – 5.9

Potash S/D: Supply could potentially catch up with demand in 2022

27

Projected MOP Supply/Demand Changes

Mil Tonnes KCl 2020 2021F 2022F Comments

Projected Shipment Changes 5.89 0.99 1.06 Moderate demand growth forecast after big upturn in 2020.

Percent Change 9.3% 1.4% 1.5%

Projected Supply Changes 3.95 0.98 1.94

SQM Production Adjustments 0.22 0.10 0.08 Incremental increases.

K+S Bethune Ramp-Up 0.31 0.08 0.13

Eurochem Usolskiy Ramp-Up 1.08 0.03 0.05

Eurochem Volgakaliy Ramp-Up 0.04 0.11 0.10

Uralkali Production / Ramp-Ups 0.20 0.10 0.00

Belaruskali Petrikovsky 0.03 0.28 0.35

Net Changes from Others 0.64 0.03 0.09

Other Existing Utilization 1.44 0.25 1.15

S/D Surplus (+) / Deficit (-) -1.94 -0.01 0.88

Source: Mosaic

NTR+MOS estimated operational changes

Ramp-up of 1.5mmt mine (first trial MOP production in August '20; official commissioning in August

'21). BPC sanctions could result in lower exports from Belarus, but this is not assumed in our base

case.

Minor changes at ICL (Spain and Israel), Jordan, China, Europe, Laos etc.

Phase 1.1 capacity: 0.4mmt ramping from '22; Phase 2 capacity 1.0mmt startup in 2025.

Pond production to slowly ramp up (Phase I & II).

Limited test production in '20-'21; Phase 1 capacity of 2.3mmt achieved in '25.

Recovery of S-2; Incremental increases from existing sites and S-3 expansion. Ust-Yayvinsky startup

in 2024.

The potash market remains very tight in

2021, with deferred demand in China/India

necessary to balance the market.

A small “surplus” in 2022 is expected to develop in H2, allowing inventories

to be modestly rebuilt. However, a more pronounced recovery of

India/China shipments (to 2020 levels) would flip the script to a ~1mmt

“deficit”. Also note that we do not forecast a reduction in Belarus exports in

2022 in our base case, despite the sanctions, which may prove optimistic.

Potash: Low inventories, particularly in India, should encourage early settlement of new contracts

28

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mil Tonnes

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

China Weekly MOP Port Inventory

Min/Max Range (16-20) 2021 2020 2019

Source: India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic China

Port Inventory: After dropping to ~2.3mmt in July, China

MOP port inventories recovered to roughly 2.7mmt in mid-

October, down 26% or ~1.0mmt y-o-y.

Channel Inventory: total inventories in India fell below

800kt in late-October, down 61% or over 1.2mmt y-o-y.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21

Mil Tonnes India MOP Inventory

Trade Company

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Imports


• The Brazilian fertilizer market is forecast to grow to a record of ~44mmt in 2021. Total Brazilian MOP imports are likely to hit

~11.7mmt this year.

• Our 2022 expectations have been tempered, as the rapid surge of fertilizer (and other) costs constrains farmer economics,

resulting in flat to lower imports.

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes Brazil MOP Imports

2019=10.2mmt 2020=10.9mmt 2021=11.7mmt

Brazil Potash

29

Source: ANDA, Siacep and Mosaic

2021 Q1-Q3

13% or

1.0mmt y-o-y

11.3 – 11.7

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil Tonnes India MOP Imports


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes India MOP Imports

2019=4.1mmt 2020=5.1mmt 2021=3.5mmt

India Potash

30

• We expect MOP imports in India to plummet 32% to 3.5mmt for calendar year 2021, the lowest level since 2013. Many global

suppliers have been reluctant to place scarce tonnes under the low prevailing contract price.

• Imports are forecast to rebound to more ‘normal’ levels assuming that increases in CFR prices are offset by subsidy and MRP

increases. The risk profile skews to the low side given the uncertainty in subsidy development (in the face of elevated nitrogen

and phosphate prices too).

Source: FAI, India Department of Fertilizer, Mosaic

2021 Q1-Q3

32% or

1.16mmt y-o-y 4.0 – 4.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F

Mil Tonnes China MOP Imports


China Potash

31

• MOP imports dropped in Q3 as expected and total (gross) imports are forecast to decline to ~7.6mmt this year.

• Our China team reported growing concerns of less attractive fertilizer affordability and delayed harvest – that could negatively

impact potash demand in Q4.

• For 2022, we expect MOP imports to rebound, assuming timely settlement of new contract, on a need to refill the in-country

pipeline and to satisfy moderate demand growth.

Source: China Customs and Mosaic

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Mil Tonnes China MOP Imports

2019=9.1mmt 2020=8.8mmt 2021=7.6mmt

2021 Q1-Q3

11% or

740kt y-o-y

7.8 – 8.3

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21E 22F 23F 24F 25F

UtilizationMil Tonnes KCl Global MOP Shipments

Actual/Estimates Mosaic Forecast Ranges

CRU - September 2021 Capacity Utilization

Potash Outlook: New supply expected to slightly trail demand, leading to higher industry operating rates

32

• We have made limited changes to our

medium-term view.

• We continued to expect range-bound

global capacity utilization (at generally

elevated levels) over the next few years

based on steady demand growth and

continued ramp-up of existing

brownfield and greenfield projects.

Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic

~2.6% CAGR ~2.0% CAGR

12%

13%

14%

15%

16%

17%

18%

19%

20%

21%

22%

23%

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

PercentMil Tonnes World Less China Grain and Oilseed Stocks

Stocks Percent of Use

Source: USDA

Strong economic rebound from COVID-low and tight ag fundamentals

33

• Global G&O balance sheets are snug – S:U ratio dropping to 15.9% in 2020/21 (lowest since 2007/08).

• USDA’s forecast calls for the stocks-to-use ratio remaining low in 2021/22, even in the face of a projected ~3% increase in

global harvest.

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

% World G&O Demand vs. World Real GDP(y-o-y % change)

World GDP Growth (%) World G&O Demand Growth (%)

Source: USDA; World Bank; IMF Oct 2021 Forecast (World GDP)

Corn275%

Soybean-1%

Wheat29%

Barley85%

Pork -6%

Beef11%

Poultry-4%

-100%

0%

100%

200%

300%

-3.0 2.0 7.0 12.0 17.0 22.0

Chg (%)

Chg (mil tonnes)

China Ag Commodity ImportsSeptember 2021 YTD Y-o-Y Changes

356%414%

438%301%

323%

318%

297%

284%

275%

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28


Mil Tonnes China Corn Imports(cumulative)

10-yr Range 2020 2021

2015: 4.7

2016: 3.2

2017: 2.8

2018: 3.5

2019: 4.8

2020: 11.3

China’s appetite across a wide range of ag commodities continues to drive ag markets

34

• Since May, China’s monthly corn imports have averaged ~3.3mmt. Prior to 2020, the highest monthly import volume was

1.16 (reached in April of 2016). This pushes YTD imports to an eye-popping record of 24.9mmt (+275% y-o-y).

• China’s soybean import growth has slowed slightly in 2021 (vs 2020), but still very strong by historical standards.

• Growth in major meat imports (pork + beef + poultry) have also slowed relative to 2020, as China has worked to rebuild its

hog inventory and higher retail prices have stymied domestic consumption. That said, beef imports remain up 11% y-o-y.

• We expect Chinese imports of ag commodities to continue to be elevated through 2022.

Source: China Customs

y-o-y change

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

Jan '15 Jan '16 Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

Mil Gal/Day

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

Mil GallonsU.S. Weekly Fuel Ethanol

Stocks Production 2017-19 Avg

Source: EIA

20/21 U.S. corn demand supported by recovering ethanol grind and elevated export demand; 21/22 to remain strong

35

• Ethanol production has recently recovered to near its pre-COVID level.

• USDA projects ethanol grind to rebound to 5.03 bbu in 20/21 and 5.20 bbu in 21/22.

• U.S. corn use reached a record high of 14.8 bbu in 20/21. We see strong export demand (upside risk to latest USDA

expectation) to continue into the 21/22 crop year and could keep corn use at a similar level next year.

• U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio is estimated to have dropped to 8.3% in 2020/21 (revised higher), but still tight relative to recent

history (2013/14-2019/20 averaged 13.4%). USDA currently projects a S:U ratio of 10.1% for 21/22 on their higher

production estimate in the October WASDE.

5.3 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.6

5.6 5.4 4.9 5.0 5.2

1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4

2.4 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.5

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21E 21/22F

Bil BuU.S. Corn Use

Feed & Residual Ethanol Other FSI Exports

Source: USDA


U.S. farm economics are still constructive despite rapid run-up of all costs

36

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21F 22F

Bil $ U.S. Farm Sector Net Cash Income

Gov't Payments "Market"

Source: USDA & Mosaic (22F) Source: University of Illinois, USDA, CBOT, Mosaic

• 21/22 farmer economics have been supported by tight commodity markets and ongoing CFAP payments.

• 22/23 farmer economics are expected to be down relative to 21/22, but still relatively healthy.

• Costs are expected to be up across the board.

• Government payments are expected to decline relative to the past couple years that have been boosted by CFAP

and market facilitation payments (offsets for retaliatory tariff impacts).

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021E

$ per acre Estimated Corn Farmer Returns in Central Illinois (high-productivity farm)

Note: Central Illinois farmer returns are for illustration only and calculated after estimated land rent. Historical data based on published information from University of Illinois and

Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM). 2021E and 2022F returns are based on CBOT nearby and Dec ‘22 corn future contracts and fertilizer cost assumptions by Mosaic.

We also assume certain percentage increases in other inputs (i.e. seed, chemicals, energy) in the 2022 forecast.

Additional breathing room for stocks expected in 2021/22, but still rather tight markets

37

Source: USDA (October WASDE)

10-year average = average 2010/11 – 2019/20

Corn10-year

Average18/19 19/20 20/21E 21/22F

Planted Acreage

(mil acres)91.4 88.9 89.7 90.8 93.3

Yield (bu/acre) 161.5 176.4 167.4 171.4 176.5

Use (bil bu) 13.5 14.3 14.0 14.8 14.8

Exports (bil bu) 1.8 2.1 1.8 2.8 2.5

Carryout (bil bu) 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.5

Stocks-to-use 11.8% 15.5% 13.7% 8.3% 10.1%

7.4%

8.3%

10.1%

2.6%

5.7%

7.3%24.2%

28.5%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18 20

WheatCorn & Soy

Crop Year

Stocks-to-Use Ratio

Corn Soybeans Wheat

Source: USDA

Soybeans10-year

Average18/19 19/20 20/21E 21/22F

Planted Acreage

(mil acres)81.1 89.2 76.1 83.1 87.2

Yield (bu/acre) 46.4 50.6 47.4 51.0 51.5

Use (bil bu) 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.5 4.4

Exports (bil bu) 1.7 1.8 1.7 2.3 2.1

Carryout (mil bu) 318 909 525 256 320

Stocks-to-use 8.3% 22.9% 13.3% 5.7% 7.3%

▪ Malaysia and Indonesia total palm oil stocks have lagged behind 2020 for much of the year despite the marginal production gains.

▪ Demand (especially exports) has been healthy and recent policy changes further improve export prospects.

• India removed restrictions on imports of refined palm oils and reduced import taxes.

• Indonesia cutting the ceiling rate for CPO export levies (on July 2) led to an increase in July exports and dramatic y-o-y increases in August.

• Indonesian domestic demand has also picked up y-o-y - more than offsetting 2020 declines in food and biodiesel uses. While

lagging 2020, domestic demand in Malaysia for crude palm oil has been increasing throughout 2021, reaching 2020 levels in

September.

Positive demand developments overshadow potential supply recovery in the palm oil market

38

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0


Mil Tonnes Malaysia & Indonesia Total Palm Oil Stocks

(Crude Oil and Processed Oil)

2020 2021Sources: MPOB, IPOA

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0


Mil Tonnes Malaysia & Indonesia Total Palm Oil Exports

(Crude Oil and Processed Oil)

2020 2021

Coffee and sugar prices are soaring on supply concerns

39


• Sugar prices rebound from a 12-year low to a 4-year high. Prices are supported by weather-related supply concerns.

• Brazil production concerns (e.g. due to frost damage) have resulted in a surging coffee market.

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

$/cwt SugarDaily Close of Front Month Contract

Source: NYMEX

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

Jan '17 Jan '18 Jan '19 Jan '20 Jan '21

$/cwt CoffeeDaily Close of Front Month Contract

Source: NYMEX

November 2021 Market Update

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