MARKET PERSPECTIVES COVID-19 IMPACT ON AIRLINE …

MARKET PERSPECTIVES

COVID-19 IMPACT ON AIRLINE SCHEDULES

April 2021

© MHIRJ Aero Advisory Services of 10

WORLD

One year after the collapse in air travel, the situation remains very concerning. While some green shoots are

appearing in domestic travel, international traffic remains severely depressed. New initiatives such as the IATA

Travel Pass app aim to re-open borders without quarantine, however there is still a lack of consensus around

vaccine passports. The recovery is very heterogeneous with China, the United States and Australasia showing

progresses month over month, while Europe and South America experience a saw-tooth recovery, reflecting the

back-and-forth evolution in traffic patterns.

UNITED STATES

The successful roll-out of COVID vaccinations in the United States has led to a greater demand for travel. TSA

figures are unequivocal, air traffic is slowly but surely returning. The positive trend is not only for domestic traffic,

but surprisingly, also for international travel where demand is rising. Hopes are high for the summer season as

airlines are seeing an increase in advanced bookings 2 to 3 months ahead of travel. Thus far, travelers have

avoided early bookings due to the high level of uncertainty around air travel and restrictions.

CHINA

Air traffic in China continues to show impressive resilience compared to the rest of the world. In February,

domestic traffic peaked just under the 2019 reference level ( -4%). For March and April, it is safe to assume that

domestic traffic will surpass the 2019 level. This will be confirmed once the passenger data is available.

International demand remains very limited and airlines have shifted capacity to domestic routes resulting in a 20%

increase in the number of seats deployed on the domestic network in April 2021 versus April 2019.

MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA

Although vaccination run at unparallel levels in the Middle East, the opposite is seen on the continent. However,

the impact of the pandemic on a very young population used to more strenuous sanitary and hygiene conditions

is light compared to what seen in Europe and even Latin America or the Indian Sub-Continent. Very strong

measures have been put in place in South Africa and some regions seem to be reaching the natural immunity.

Traffic wise, the market is still relatively strong within the continent and domestically in all markets.

While traffic still suffers from major airlines stopping services on major routes – such as Emirates to South Africa

and Nigeria, Ethiopian Airlines Addis Ababa’s hub is almost as busy as before. And with a very smart and early

cargo strategy, the airline was one of the very few to remain profitable in 2020.

ABOUT OUR TOOLS AND METHODOLOGY

MHIRJ Aero Advisory Services uses data from CIRIUM, combined with our extensive in-house analytical capabilities. Passenger demand data is available with a 2 to 3-month delay, while airline schedules are updated weekly in the CIRIUM Diio database. Data is then processed by our proprietary tools to offer a comprehensive and easy-to-grasp view of the market. The report shows a detailed table for the top 10 airlines in each region, while graphs display views for all operators. A customized and dynamic version of this report has been developed for quick comparisons of specific regions, airlines or airports. Additional details available here

To find out more about our products and services, please read at the end of this report.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=24q51HmgQcg

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


WORLD

Source : CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in the World

Apr 2019 Level

Today

FUTU

RE

Service growth versus 2019 levels

Demand growth versus 2019 levels

Top 10 Airlines % Change

American Airlines -27%RJ -26%

CRJ -25%Embraer -27%

NB -24%Airbus -16%Boeing -26%

WB -60%Airbus -100%Boeing -54%

Delta Air Lines -30%RJ -24%

CRJ -34%Embraer 0%

NB -37%Airbus 5%Boeing -32%Other NB -100%


United Airlines -43%RJ -39%



WB -62%Boeing -62%

Southwest Airlines -33%NB -33%

Boeing -33% China Southern 1%

RJ -91%Embraer -100%Other RJ New subfleet

NB 3%Airbus 5%Boeing -1%

WB 21%Airbus 19%Boeing 25%

China Eastern 1%NB 4%

Airbus 3%Boeing 7%


Ryanair -90%NB -90%

Boeing -91% Indigo -19%

TP 32%ATR 32%

NB -23%Airbus -23%

easyJet -91%NB -91%

Airbus -91% Air Canada -87%

TP -88%Dash -88%

RJ -88%CRJ -76%Embraer -100%

NB -82%Airbus -90%


Flight levels vs 2019WORLD

Apr-21

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


UNITED STATES

(Level of service changes for flights originating in the US)

Source : CIRIUM, TSA

Weekly service (number of flights) in United States

Apr 2019 level

Today

FUTU

RE




American Airlines -27%RJ -25%


NB -26%Airbus -17%Boeing -30%Other NB -100%


Delta Air Lines -29%RJ -23%

CRJ -33%Embraer 2%

NB -37%Airbus 5%Boeing -32%Other NB -100%

WB -13%Airbus 20%Boeing -16%

United Airlines -42%RJ -38%



WB -59%Boeing -59%

Southwest Airlines -33%NB -33%

Boeing -33% Alaska Airlines -17%

TP -19%Dash -19%

RJ 15%Embraer 15%


JetBlue Airways -39%RJ -54%

Embraer -54%NB -31%

Airbus -31% Spirit Airlines -16%

NB -16%Airbus -16%

Frontier Airlines 6%NB 6%

Airbus 6% Allegiant Air -17%

NB -17%Airbus -17%

Hawaiian Airlines -47%TP -100%

ATR -100%NB -40%

Airbus 31%Boeing -50%

WB -47%Airbus -47%

Flight Originating in

US

Apr-21

Flight levels vs 2019

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


EUROPE

(Level of service changes for flights originating in Europe)

Source: CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in Europe

Apr 2019 level

Today

FUTU

RE




Ryanair -90%NB -90%

Boeing -90% easyJet -91%

NB -91%Airbus -91%

Lufthansa -80%RJ -72%

CRJ -76%Embraer -53%Other RJ N/A

NB -83%Airbus -85%Boeing N/AOther NB -41%


Turkish Airlines -46%NB -44%

Airbus -40%Boeing -47%


Air France -63%TP -73%

ATR -73%RJ -31%

CRJ -54%Embraer -7%

NB -77%Airbus -77%


Aeroflot -43%RJ -12%

Other RJ -12%NB -48%



British Airways -94%TP -100%

Else -100%RJ -97%

Embraer -96%Other RJ -100%

NB -95%Airbus -95%


SAS -79%TP -83%

ATR -83%RJ -89%

CRJ -89%NB -75%


WB -78%Airbus -78%


EUROPE

Apr-21

Flight levels vs 2019

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


ASIA (Excl. China)

(Level of service changes for flights originating in Asia)

Source : CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in Asia (Excl. China)

FUTU

RE

Apr 2019 level

Today




Indigo -18%TP 32%

ATR 32%NB -23%

Airbus -23% All Nippon Airways -40%

TP -22%Dash -22%

RJ -11%CRJ -11%


WB -64%Boeing -64%

Japan Airlines -38%TP 236%

Else -33%ATR N/A

RJ -41%Embraer -41%

NB -38%Boeing -38%

WB -60%Airbus N/ABoeing -70%

Lion Airlines -29%TP -100%

ATR -100%NB -29%

Boeing -29%WB -100%

Airbus -100% AirAsia -96%

NB -96%Airbus -96%

SpiceJet -30%TP -42%

Dash -42%NB -19%

Boeing -20% Air India -37%

NB -35%Airbus -35%

WB -45%Boeing -45%

Garuda Indonesia -63%TP -89%

ATR -89%RJ -75%

CRJ -75%NB -61%

Boeing -61%WB -42%


Wings Air -43%TP -48%

ATR -48%NB 454%

Airbus New subfleetBoeing -71%

Vietnam Airlines 6%TP -2%

ATR -2%NB 15%

Airbus 15%WB -30%

Airbus -76%Boeing 47%

Flight levels vs 2019Flight Originating in

ASIA (Excl. China)

Apr-21

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


CHINA

(Level of service changes for flights originating in China)

Source: CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in China

FUTU

RE

Apr 2019 levelToday




China Southern Airlines 8%RJ -91%

Embraer -100%Other RJ New subfleet

NB 10%Airbus 14%Boeing 5%


China Eastern Airlines 9%NB 10%

Airbus 9%Boeing 12%


Air China 13%NB 11%

Airbus 21%Boeing 1%


Hainan Airlines -6%NB -4%

Boeing -4%WB -20%

Airbus -44%Boeing 22%

Shenzhen Airlines 6%NB 7%


WB -11%Airbus -11%

Xiamen Airlines 12%NB 12%

Boeing 12%WB 6%

Boeing 6% Sichuan Airlines 12%

NB 9%Airbus 9%

WB 65%Airbus 65%

Shandong Airlines 9%NB 9%

Boeing 9% Spring Airlines 46%

NB 46%Airbus 46%

TianJin Airlines -26%RJ -35%

Embraer -35%NB -24%

Airbus -19%Other NB -31%

WB 19%Airbus 19%

Apr-21


CHINAFlight levels vs 2019

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA

(Level of service changes for flights originating in Middle East and Africa)

Source: CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in Middle East and Africa

FUTU

RE

Apr 2019 level

Today




Saudi Arabian Airlines -42%NB -37%

Airbus -37%WB -54%

Airbus -34%Boeing -81%Other WB -100%

Qatar Airways -45%NB -66%

Airbus -66%WB -33%


Emirates -64%WB -64%


Ethiopian Airlines -28%TP -16%

Dash -16%NB -43%

Boeing -43%WB -27%


Egyptair -56%RJ -100%

Embraer -100%NB -34%



Flynas Company -30%NB -30%

Airbus -30% Etihad Airways -68%

NB -82%Airbus -82%


Air Algerie -67%TP -65%

ATR -65%NB -65%

Boeing -65%WB -98%

Airbus -98% Oman Air -86%

RJ N/AEmbraer N/A

NB -87%Boeing -87%


Royal Air Maroc -81%TP -66%

ATR -66%RJ -97%

Embraer -97%NB -84%

Boeing -83%WB -87%

Boeing -87%


ME & AFRICA

Apr-21

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


CENTRAL AND LAT. AMERICA (Incl. CARIBBEAN)

(Level of service changes for flights originating in Central and Latin America)

Source: CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in Central and South America

FUTU

RE

Apr 2019 level

Today



LATAM Airlines -60%NB -60%

Airbus -60%WB -62%


Azul -48%TP -57%

ATR -57%RJ -100%

Embraer -100%NB -41%

Airbus 4%Other NB -56%

WB 238%Airbus 238%

Gol -76%NB -76%

Boeing -76% AVIANCA -63%

TP -71%ATR -71%

RJ -100%Embraer -100%

NB -59%Airbus -59%


Aerolineas Argentinas -68%RJ -65%

Embraer -65%NB -70%

Boeing -70%WB -69%

Airbus -69% COPA -67%

RJ -100%Embraer -100%

NB -58%Boeing -58%

Easyfly -38%TP -38%

ATR -38% American Airlines -9%

RJ -51%CRJ N/AEmbraer -51%

NB 5%Airbus -22%Boeing 24%


Boliviana de Aviacion -1%RJ -25%

CRJ -25%NB 2%

Boeing 2%WB -46%

Boeing -46% Sky Airline -39%

NB -39%Airbus -39%

Apr-21


CENT. & SOUTH AM

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


AUSTRALASIA

(Level of service changes for flights originating in Australasia)

Source: CIRIUM

Weekly service (number of flights) in Australasia

FUTU

RE

Apr 2019 level

Today




Qantas Airways -24%TP -17%

Dash -17%NB -20%

Airbus N/ABoeing -24%Other NB -24%


Air New Zealand -17%TP -8%

ATR -3%Dash -13%

NB -25%Airbus -25%

WB -73%Boeing -73%

Virgin Australia -47%TP -100%

ATR -100%RJ -42%


Airbus -50%Boeing -38%Other NB -77%


Jetstar Airways -23%NB -14%

Airbus -14%WB -100%

Boeing -100% Regional Express -25%

TP -25%Else -25%

Air Niugini -14%TP 54%

Dash 54%RJ -56%


Boeing 47%Other NB -47%

WB -11%Boeing -11%

Air Tahiti -45%TP -45%

ATR -45% PNG Air -29%

TP -29%ATR -32%Dash -22%

Fiji Airways -73%TP -53%

ATR -53%NB -98%

Boeing -98%WB -86%

Airbus -86%

Apr-21

Flight Originating

in AUSTRALASIAFlight levels vs 2019

MARKET PERSPECTIVES


April 2021


SUMMARY

About the Author:

Hugo PINARD, Manager

[email protected]

About MHIRJ Aero Advisory Services (a Group Company of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries):

Through advanced data analytics interpreted by professionals with a 360° view on the commercial aviation

business, MHIRJ Aero Advisory Services provides objective perspectives: from analyzing future market

requirements to supporting a fleet in service, from understanding airlines’ key success factors to making the

right aircraft financing decisions.

Our capabilities cover the field of airline network strategy with traffic forecasts, network optimization and

fleet mix optimization. We perform air service development studies for airports and airlines alike.

We are proud to offer comprehensive fleet and market strategy studies for banks and lessors.

Additional areas of expertise of MHIRJ Aero Advisory Services cover airline branding strategy, aviation

financing strategy, aviation vendor strategy and engineering support.

To find out more, please visit our website at www.mhirj-aero-advisory-services.com or contact the author directly.

Disclaimer: This report is provided by MHI RJ Aviation ULC ("MHIRJ") for information purposes only, and does not constitute an offer to do business or a promise or commitment of any kind. MHIRJ

makes no representations, warranties or conditions, expressed or implied, statutory or otherwise regarding any matter, including any warranties or conditions of merchantability, quality,

non-infringement or fitness for a particular purpose or that the information will be error-free, accurate or complete. This report and the information contained herein are proprietary and

confidential and may not be copied, reproduced in whole or in part, or distributed to anyone other than the intended recipient. MHIRJ aim to use reliable sources when writing our reports

and it should not be relied on as such. Clients should not base business decisions on the information provided but should seek professionals advice. MHIRJ disclaims any and all liability

relating to or arising out of the use of the information contained in this report to the fullest extent permissible by law. Furthermore, some of the information has been extracted from a Cirium

product. Cirium has not seen or reviewed any conclusions, recommendations or other views that may appear in this document. Cirium makes no warranties, express or implied, as to the

accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or completeness of its data or its fitness for any particular purpose. Cirium disclaims any and all liability relating to or arising out of use of its data and

other content or to the fullest extent permissible by law.

MHIRJ is a group company of MITSUBISHI HEAVY INDUSTRIES

Level of service vs 2019 World US Europe Asia China ME & Afr Lat Am. Pacific

Jan 2020 2% 3% -2% 2% 8% 2% 0% -2%

Feb 2020 -2% 3% -3% 1% -17% 1% 1% -1%

Mar 2020 -11% 2% -15% -13% -36% -12% 1% -4%

Apr 2020 -67% -60% -91% -53% -39% -74% -83% -88%

May 2020 -72% -76% -89% -69% -23% -72% -86% -88%

Jun 2020 -64% -68% -81% -54% -15% -69% -87% -77%

Jul 2020 -53% -51% -62% -55% -15% -64% -81% -70%

Aug 2020 -48% -48% -51% -46% -11% -63% -80% -68%

Sep 2020 -47% -51% -55% -45% -4% -59% -67% -67%

Oct 2020 -46% -48% -57% -50% -1% -56% -58% -63%

Nov 2020 -45% -45% -62% -45% -3% -54% -55% -60%

Dec 2020 -46% -47% -71% -43% -3% -49% -52% -47%

Jan 2021 -42% -41% -61% -41% -4% -47% -45% -45%

Feb 2021 -48% -40% -74% -49% -14% -49% -51% -44%

Mar 2021 -43% -33% -72% -47% 4% -49% -55% -39%

Apr 2021 -43% -33% -72% -46% 4% -50% -58% -33%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

May

Jun

Jul

Au

g

Sep

Oct

No

v

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Ap

r

2020 2021

Level of Service vs 2019

China

US

Pacific

World

Asia

ME & Afr

Lat Am.

Europe

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.mhirj-aero-advisory-services.com/

MARKET PERSPECTIVES COVID-19 IMPACT ON AIRLINE …

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