Market Outlook 110712

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    Market OutlookJuly 11, 2012

    L&T acquires Malaysia-based Henikwon Corporation

    Larsen & Toubro's (L&T) Malaysia-based subsidiary Tamco Switchgear has

    acquired electrical equipment maker Henikwon Corporation for an

    undisclosedamount. Based in Malaysia, Henikwon Corporation is a leading

    manufacturer of low and medium voltage busduct systems. Henikwon brand is

    globally well recognized and offers high-quality products under compliance to

    international quality standards. Henikwons acquisition brings a string of customer

    base of large corporations to Tamco. This acquisition will be complementary to the

    companys electrical and automation portfolio and make comprehensive offerings

    for the building and infrastructure segments. It will further enhance the companys

    presence in South East Asia and aid in catering to the Indian and Middle East

    markets.

    At the CMP of `1,418, the stock is trading at PE of 14.2x FY2014E earnings, after

    adjusting for investments, which is below the historical trading multiple for L&T. We

    have used the SOTP methodology to value the company to capture all its business

    initiatives and investments/stakes in the different businesses. Ascribing separate

    values to its parent business on a P/E basis and investments in subsidiaries on P/E,

    P/BV and mcap basis, our target price works out to `1,553.

    Lavasas request to confer infrastructure status on its loans

    rejected by RBI

    As per media reports, RBI has rejected Lavasas (HCCs subsidiary) request toconfer infrastructure status on its loans. With this rejection the companys effort to

    escape the stigma of bad debt has suffered a jolt. The rejection means that the

    firm cannot enter the special cell set up by banks to help ease the debt burden of

    troubled companies with high-cost borrowings. It must take the difficult road of

    negotiating individually with the banks and its debt will not have any chance of

    becoming a standard asset. The `850cr loans on Lavasa's books are now treated

    as bad loans by most banks. Lavasa had sought infrastructure status from RBI

    some months ago on the grounds that it would help the company join the

    corporate debt restructuring cell set up by banks. This is negative for HCC as this

    development is likely to cause further delay to the project.

    Result Previews

    HDFC 1QFY2013 Result Preview (CMP: `683/ TP: - / Upside: -)

    HDFC is scheduled to announce its 1QFY2013 results today. We expect the bank

    to report healthy operating income growth of 20.0% yoy to `1,568cr. Operating

    expenses are expected to grow at 28.8% yoy to `146cr. The pre-provision profit is

    expected to grow at 19.1% yoy to `1,422cr. Provisioning expenses are expected to

    increase by 119.3% yoy to `39cr, leading to a net profit growth of 19.9% yoy to`1,013cr. At the CMP, HDFCs core business (after adjusting `232/share towards

    value of the subsidiaries) is trading at 3.6x FY2014E ABV of `123.4 (including

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    Market OutlookJuly 11, 2012

    subsidiaries, the stock is trading at 3.8x FY2014E ABV of `176.9). We maintain

    our Neutral recommendation on the stock.

    FY2013E 7,372 3.6 4,826 31.5 13.9 2.6 34.8 21.4 4.3FY2014E 8,812 3.5 5,771 37.7 15.7 2.6 32.1 17.9 3.8

    Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

    Net profit 1,017 845 20 1,326 -23

    Net sales 14,680 10,797 36 12,980 13

    Net profit 3,233 2,408 34 2,919 11

    Net sales 9,596 7,485 28.2 8,852 8.4

    Net profit 2,429 1,722 41.1 2,316 4.9

    Net profit 1,419 1,085 31 1,751 (19)

    Economic and Political News

    Power tariff in Delhi much less than major cities: Government India buys Mahatma Gandhis archive to prevent its auction Supreme court signals rethink on auction route for all natural resources No service tax on NRI remittances: Govt.Corporate News

    SIAM lowers FY2013 car sales forecast SAIL, Kobe ink pact for `1,500cr plant in Bengal Quick recovery of US$1.4bn Kingfisher debt unlikely: SBI Suzlon inks 300MW equipment sale deal with ReNew PowerSource: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint

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    Market StrategyJuly 11, 2012

    www.angelbroking.com

    Macro watch

    Exhibit 1 :Q uarterly GD P trends

    5. 9

    7. 5

    9. 8

    7. 4

    9. 48. 5

    7. 68. 2

    9. 2

    8. 0

    6. 76. 1

    5. 3

    3. 0

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    6. 0

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    8. 0

    9. 010.0

    4Q

    FY09

    1Q

    FY10

    2Q

    FY10

    3Q

    FY10

    4Q

    FY10

    1Q

    FY11

    2Q

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    3Q

    FY11

    4Q

    FY11

    1Q

    FY12

    2Q

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    3Q

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    4Q

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    (%)

    Source: C SO , Ang el Research

    Exhibit 2 :IIP trends

    6. 2

    9. 5

    3. 7 3. 42. 5

    (5.0)

    6. 0

    2. 7

    1. 0

    4. 1

    (3.2)

    0. 1

    (6.0)

    (4.0)

    (2.0)

    -

    2. 0

    4. 0

    6. 0

    8. 0

    10.012.0

    M

    ay

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    (%)

    Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 3 :M onthly WPI inflation trends

    9. 5 9. 4 9. 810.0 9. 9 9. 5

    7. 76. 9

    7. 4 7. 7 7. 2 7. 6

    0. 0

    2. 0

    4. 0

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    (%)

    Source: M O SPI, Angel Research

    Exhibit 4 :M an ufacturing and services PM I

    48.0

    50.0

    52.0

    54.0

    56.0

    58.0

    60.0

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    M fg. PM I Services PM I

    Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

    Exhibit 5 :Exports and imports growth trends

    (15.0)

    0. 0

    15.0

    30.0

    45.0

    60.0

    75.0

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    Expo rts yo y g rowth Im p orts yo y g rowth(%)

    Source: Bloomb erg, Ang el Research

    Exhibit 6 :Key policy rates

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

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    Repo rate Reverse Repo rate C RR(%)

    Source: RBI, Angel Research

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Agri / Agri Chemical

    Rallis Neutral 137 - 2,673 1,432 1,647 14.7 14.7 7.0 8.0 19.6 17.2 4.1 3.5 22.8 22.3 1.9 1.6

    United Phosphorus Buy 123 183 5,661 8,191 8,764 16.5 16.5 17.1 18.3 7.2 6.7 1.2 1.0 17.5 16.2 0.8 0.7

    Auto & Auto Ancillary

    Amara Raja Batteries Accumulate 316 345 2,697 2,715 3,041 15.3 15.3 29.2 32.8 10.8 9.6 2.5 2.0 26.0 23.3 0.9 0.8

    Apollo Tyres Buy 83 100 4,201 13,699 15,184 10.5 10.2 12.1 13.3 6.9 6.3 1.3 1.1 19.7 18.4 0.5 0.4

    Ashok Leyland Buy 26 33 6,918 14,798 16,687 9.6 9.6 2.4 3.0 10.7 8.8 2.1 1.9 14.8 16.5 0.6 0.5

    Automotive Axle Buy 440 514 665 1,211 1,387 12.1 11.7 50.3 57.1 8.8 7.7 2.2 1.8 27.8 25.7 0.6 0.5Bajaj Auto Buy 1,523 1,787 44,075 21,665 24,334 18.6 18.4 111.7 123.2 13.6 12.4 5.4 4.3 43.8 38.5 1.6 1.4

    Bharat Forge Buy 306 372 7,133 7,173 7,998 16.3 16.5 22.3 26.6 13.7 11.5 2.7 2.2 21.0 21.0 1.1 0.9

    Bosch India Neutral 8,900 - 27,945 9,106 10,255 19.4 19.3 410.2 460.3 21.7 19.3 4.8 3.9 22.1 20.4 2.7 2.3

    CEAT Buy 102 164 349 5,067 5,631 8.0 7.6 39.4 41.0 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.4 18.8 16.5 0.3 0.3

    Exide Industries Accumulate 138 146 11,730 5,787 6,595 15.5 17.0 7.1 9.0 19.4 15.4 3.4 2.9 18.6 20.3 1.7 1.4

    FAG Bearings Neutral 1,489 - 2,474 1,492 1,703 18.8 18.5 115.3 129.8 12.9 11.5 2.8 2.3 23.5 21.6 1.4 1.1

    Hero Motocorp Buy 2,065 2,473 41,232 25,970 29,772 15.0 15.5 139.7 154.5 14.8 13.4 7.0 5.3 54.7 44.9 1.3 1.0

    JK Tyre Buy 102 135 418 7,950 8,904 5.5 6.0 25.1 38.6 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.4 12.1 16.4 0.3 0.3

    Mahindra and Mahindra Accumulate 734 824 45,054 35,881 40,746 10.0 10.0 47.5 53.2 15.4 13.8 3.1 2.6 21.3 20.5 1.0 0.8

    Maruti Accumulate 1,221 1,364 35,285 39,959 46,670 6.0 7.0 71.4 90.9 17.1 13.4 2.1 1.8 12.8 14.4 0.7 0.6

    Motherson Sumi Buy 165 216 6,468 23,342 26,366 7.8 8.2 13.3 18.0 12.4 9.2 3.0 2.3 26.2 28.4 0.5 0.4

    Subros Accumulate 34 36 204 1,244 1,402 8.4 8.3 4.5 5.1 7.6 6.7 0.7 0.7 9.9 11.0 0.4 0.4

    Tata Motors Buy 246 305 65,668 191,303 211,004 13.0 12.9 40.7 43.8 6.1 5.6 2.0 1.7 36.0 33.1 0.4 0.4

    TVS Motor Accumulate 40 42 1,896 7,442 8,198 6.2 6.1 4.8 5.2 8.4 7.6 1.4 1.3 18.2 17.9 0.2 0.2

    Capital Goods

    ABB* Sell 809 498 17,137 8,760 10,023 7.6 7.5 18.2 20.7 44.4 39.0 6.0 5.3 14.4 14.6 1.9 1.7BGR Energy Neutral 313 - 2,257 4,195 4,837 11.0 11.0 30.1 32.4 10.4 9.7 1.8 1.6 18.4 17.6 1.1 1.0

    BHEL Neutral 236 - 57,727 46,344 46,916 18.3 18.6 23.5 24.1 10.0 9.8 2.0 1.7 21.3 18.9 1.1 1.1

    Blue Star Neutral 186 - 1,673 3,047 3,328 5.4 6.9 9.6 16.2 19.4 11.5 3.8 3.1 20.7 29.7 0.6 0.5

    Crompton Greaves Accumulate 133 142 8,500 12,451 14,265 7.9 8.3 8.0 9.5 16.6 14.0 2.2 2.0 13.9 14.9 0.7 0.6

    Jyoti Structures Buy 44 67 361 2,622 2,801 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.4 4.0 3.3 0.5 0.5 13.7 14.9 0.3 0.3

    KEC International Buy 58 73 1,487 6,686 7,200 8.5 8.8 10.6 12.2 5.5 4.8 1.0 0.9 25.9 24.0 0.4 0.4

    LMW Buy 1,672 1,992 1,884 2,369 2,727 11.7 11.7 143.4 166.0 11.7 10.1 1.9 1.8 17.4 18.4 0.3 0.2

    Thermax Neutral 489 - 5,823 5,514 5,559 9.8 9.6 29.7 28.4 16.5 17.2 3.1 2.8 20.2 16.9 0.9 0.9

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    July 11, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Cement

    ACC Neutral 1,272 - 23,874 11,096 12,607 21.0 21.7 76.1 82.9 16.7 15.3 3.1 2.8 19.3 19.3 1.9 1.6

    Ambuja Cements Neutral 170 - 26,195 10,205 11,659 24.6 24.2 10.8 12.0 15.7 14.2 3.3 2.9 19.7 19.8 2.2 1.8

    India Cements Neutral 85 - 2,602 4,364 4,791 18.9 19.1 9.2 11.4 9.2 7.4 0.7 0.7 8.0 9.5 0.5 0.5

    J K Lakshmi Cements Neutral 81 - 990 1,938 2,246 19.1 20.1 15.2 16.8 5.3 4.8 0.7 0.6 13.8 14.0 0.6 1.0

    Madras Cements Neutral 156 - 3,712 3,444 3,786 25.5 24.9 14.6 17.1 10.7 9.2 1.6 1.4 15.6 16.0 1.7 1.4

    Shree Cements Neutral 2,901 - 10,105 5,519 6,293 24.5 23.7 156.6 225.3 18.5 12.9 4.6 3.9 22.3 26.0 1.5 1.2

    UltraTech Cement Neutral 1,565 - 42,893 20,099 22,642 21.7 22.9 89.6 1 04.7 17.5 14.9 2.9 2.5 17.7 17.9 2.0 1.9Construction

    Ashoka Buildcon Buy 217 273 1,144 2,014 2,293 22.4 22.4 22.6 26.7 9.6 8.1 1.0 0.9 11.4 11.9 2.4 2.7

    Consolidated Co Neutral 16 - 296 2,489 2,755 7.0 7.8 3.0 4.0 5.4 4.0 0.5 0.4 8.7 10.8 0.3 0.3

    Hind. Const. Neutral 21 - 1,283 4,239 4,522 11.1 11.8 (1.8) (0.8) (11.8) (27.1) 1.2 1.4 (9.5) (4.7) 1.3 1.2

    IRB Infra Buy 135 166 4,500 3,821 4,582 42.3 40.2 15.0 16.9 9.0 8.0 1.4 1.2 16.1 15.8 2.8 2.6

    ITNL Buy 185 265 3,590 6,619 7,925 23.8 23.3 22.9 27.8 8.1 6.7 1.2 1.0 15.5 16.4 2.2 2.1

    IVRCL Infra Buy 51 61 1,366 5,510 6,722 8.8 9.0 2.5 4.6 20.2 11.2 0.7 0.6 3.4 5.8 0.7 0.7

    Jaiprakash Asso. Accumulate 78 88 16,512 15,259 17,502 25.7 24.7 4.2 5.0 18.3 15.5 1.5 1.4 8.5 9.3 2.4 2.1

    Larsen & Toubro Accumulate 1,418 1,553 86,880 59,559 69,089 12.1 11.5 78.4 85.2 18.1 16.6 3.0 2.6 16.1 15.3 1.6 1.4

    Madhucon Proj Buy 39 56 285 2,206 2,502 10.7 10.7 4.6 4.7 8.3 8.3 0.4 0.4 5.2 5.0 0.7 0.7

    Nagarjuna Const. Neutral 44 - 1,132 5,453 6,169 8.1 8.5 1.6 1.9 26.8 22.9 0.5 0.5 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.7

    Patel Engg. Neutral 99 - 690 3,609 3,836 13.1 13.1 14.0 14.6 7.1 6.8 0.4 0.4 6.3 6.1 1.0 1.1

    Punj Lloyd Neutral 59 - 1,949 11,592 12,993 8.4 8.4 1.8 3.2 32.6 18.3 0.6 0.6 2.0 3.4 0.6 0.6

    Sadbhav Engg. Buy 142 182 2,140 2,789 3,147 10.6 10.7 8.4 10.4 16.9 13.7 2.3 2.0 15.0 15.6 0.9 0.8

    Simplex Infra Accumulate 232 265 1,146 6,732 7,837 8.1 8.4 23.5 29.4 9.8 7.9 0.9 0.8 9.6 11.0 0.5 0.5

    FinancialsAllahabad Bank Neutral 148 - 7,395 7,467 8,685 3.2 3.3 37.5 41.5 4.0 3.6 0.7 0.6 18.1 17.4 - -

    Andhra Bank Reduce 117 107 6,547 5,225 6,024 3.3 3.3 22.7 25.4 5.2 4.6 0.8 0.7 16.0 15.8 - -

    Axis Bank Buy 1,075 1,489 44,547 16,488 20,297 3.2 3.3 118.4 145.2 9.1 7.4 1.7 1.4 20.3 21.1 - -

    Bank of Baroda Buy 730 921 28,579 16,157 19,475 2.7 2.7 123.7 148.3 5.9 4.9 1.0 0.8 17.3 18.1 - -

    Bank of India Accumulate 348 388 19,973 13,657 15,902 2.5 2.6 59.5 70.6 5.9 4.9 0.9 0.8 16.2 16.9 - -

    Bank of Maharashtra Neutral 50 - 2,945 3,506 3,925 3.2 3.2 10.2 11.9 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.6 15.3 15.8 - -

    Canara Bank Accumulate 431 492 19,111 12,296 14,445 2.4 2.5 81.5 92.2 5.3 4.7 0.9 0.8 16.4 16.3 - -

    Central Bank Reduce 83 72 6,095 7,001 8,211 2.5 2.6 14.0 20.6 5.9 4.0 0.9 0.8 11.0 14.5 - -

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Financials

    Corporation Bank Accumulate 429 465 6,349 5,294 6,070 2.3 2.3 106.3 110.1 4.0 3.9 0.7 0.6 17.7 16.2 - -

    Dena Bank Neutral 101 - 3,551 3,170 3,577 2.9 2.9 22.8 25.3 4.5 4.0 0.7 0.6 17.2 16.6 - -

    Federal Bank Neutral 448 - 7,651 2,736 3,165 3.4 3.4 49.3 57.4 9.1 7.8 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.5 - -

    HDFC Neutral 683 - 101,649 7,372 8,812 3.6 3.5 31.5 37.7 21.7 18.1 4.3 3.9 34.8 32.1 - -

    HDFC Bank Neutral 588 - 138,622 22,076 27,921 4.3 4.4 28.7 35.8 20.5 16.5 3.9 3.3 20.7 21.9 - -

    ICICI Bank Buy 943 1,169 108,336 22,368 26,857 2.8 2.9 68.2 80.4 13.8 11.7 1.7 1.5 14.2 15.4 - -

    IDBI Bank Buy 98 113 12,509 8,152 9,907 1.9 2.1 19.7 24.1 5.0 4.1 0.7 0.6 13.6 15.0 - -Indian Bank Neutral 186 - 7,983 6,417 7,292 3.5 3.5 40.2 43.1 4.6 4.3 0.8 0.7 17.9 16.9 - -

    IOB Accumulate 85 91 6,755 7,578 8,662 2.6 2.7 17.2 22.5 4.9 3.8 0.6 0.5 12.1 14.3 - -

    J & K Bank Accumulate 929 979 4,501 2,525 2,858 3.5 3.5 175.8 183.1 5.3 5.1 1.0 0.8 19.3 17.5 - -

    LIC Housing Finance Accumulate 270 286 13,601 2,108 2,607 2.6 2.6 24.5 30.6 11.0 8.8 2.1 1.7 20.1 21.4 - -

    Oriental Bank Neutral 262 - 7,640 6,497 7,533 2.8 2.8 53.4 63.9 4.9 4.1 0.7 0.6 13.3 14.3 - -

    Punjab Natl.Bank Buy 865 1,050 29,334 20,142 23,929 3.2 3.3 153.3 174.3 5.6 5.0 1.0 0.9 18.3 18.0 - -

    South Ind.Bank Neutral 25 - 2,866 1,447 1,664 2.8 2.7 3.8 4.1 6.7 6.2 1.2 1.1 19.5 18.2 - -

    St Bk of India Accumulate 2,222 2,443 149,120 67,783 78,208 3.7 3.6 226.0 264.2 9.8 8.4 1.6 1.4 17.7 18.1 - -

    Syndicate Bank Accumulate 110 118 6,649 7,176 8,299 3.1 3.1 25.1 29.1 4.4 3.8 0.7 0.6 17.6 17.8 - -

    UCO Bank Reduce 81 71 5,387 5,642 6,438 2.5 2.5 16.4 17.6 5.0 4.6 0.9 0.8 16.2 15.4 - -

    Union Bank Buy 211 256 11,595 10,623 12,404 3.0 3.0 42.5 49.6 5.0 4.3 0.8 0.7 16.9 17.2 - -

    United Bank Buy 62 78 2,240 3,599 4,212 2.8 3.0 18.2 22.3 3.4 2.8 0.5 0.4 15.0 16.2 - -

    Vijaya Bank Reduce 59 52 2,936 2,695 3,097 2.2 2.3 9.6 12.0 6.2 4.9 0.8 0.7 12.0 13.6 - -

    Yes Bank Buy 360 454 12,737 3,250 4,261 2.8 2.9 34.1 42.8 10.6 8.4 2.2 1.8 23.2 23.9 - -

    FMCG

    Asian Paints Neutral 3,692 - 35,413 11,423 13,309 16.3 16.3 125.3 148.4 29.5 24.9 10.0 7.9 38.0 35.4 3.0 2.6Britannia Buy 525 633 6,274 5,835 6,824 6.3 6.7 20.7 27.5 25.4 19.1 9.9 7.4 42.7 44.3 1.1 0.9

    Colgate Neutral 1,156 - 15,723 3,007 3,417 21.1 22.1 38.2 43.8 30.2 26.4 36.0 28.3 130.2 119.9 5.1 4.5

    Dabur India Neutral 115 - 20,025 5,878 6,799 16.8 17.0 4.2 4.9 27.7 23.4 10.1 8.2 39.3 42.0 3.4 3.0

    GlaxoSmith Con* Neutral 2,612 - 10,987 3,124 3,663 17.1 17.6 103.0 123.3 25.4 21.2 7.8 6.3 34.0 32.9 3.2 2.7

    Godrej Consumer Neutral 573 - 19,485 5,973 7,000 18.4 18.6 22.8 27.2 25.1 21.1 6.9 5.6 31.3 38.4 3.4 2.9

    HUL Neutral 446 - 96,481 25,350 29,309 14.3 14.4 14.1 16.4 31.6 27.2 23.6 18.5 82.7 76.2 3.6 3.1

    ITC Neutral 258 - 201,949 29,588 34,063 35.4 35.8 9.3 10.9 27.7 23.8 8.9 7.3 35.2 33.8 6.5 5.6

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    July 11, 2012

    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 110712

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    FMCG

    Marico Neutral 182 - 11,711 4,667 5,427 12.8 12.9 6.6 8.1 27.3 22.4 7.3 5.7 30.0 28.8 2.5 2.1

    Nestle* Neutral 4,460 - 43,006 8,731 10,539 21.0 21.4 114.4 143.0 39.0 31.2 23.5 16.2 71.1 61.4 5.0 4.0

    Tata Global Buy 116 136 7,155 7,011 7,711 9.7 10.0 6.3 7.5 18.5 15.5 1.8 1.7 9.5 10.9 0.9 0.8

    IT

    HCL Tech Accumulate 497 562 34,465 24,029 26,633 18.3 17.2 39.6 43.2 12.6 11.5 2.9 2.4 22.9 21.0 1.4 1.2

    Hexaware Accumulate 121 132 3,594 1,921 2,178 20.6 20.0 10.4 11.4 11.7 10.6 2.8 2.4 24.7 23.4 1.6 1.3

    Infosys Accumulate 2,459 2,747 141,209 39,364 42,981 32.2 30.5 161.6 171.7 15.2 14.3 3.5 2.9 22.9 20.5 3.0 2.6Infotech Enterprises Neutral 183 - 2,042 1,825 2,008 17.5 17.1 16.9 18.7 10.8 9.8 1.5 1.3 13.7 13.3 0.8 0.6

    KPIT Cummins Neutral 120 - 2,142 2,145 2,316 16.0 14.8 9.9 11.3 12.1 10.7 2.4 1.9 20.8 19.1 1.0 0.8

    Mahindra Satyam Accumulate 81 87 9,568 7,492 8,038 17.0 16.3 8.1 8.3 10.0 9.8 1.4 1.2 14.1 12.6 0.9 0.7

    Mindtree Accumulate 665 710 2,706 2,324 2,533 18.3 16.9 62.4 64.5 10.7 10.3 2.2 1.8 21.2 18.0 1.0 0.8

    Mphasis Neutral 384 - 8,065 5,704 6,009 18.6 17.7 36.0 37.1 10.7 10.4 1.5 1.3 14.0 12.6 0.9 0.8

    NIIT Buy 43 52 715 1,162 1,304 14.8 15.1 7.1 8.8 6.1 4.9 1.0 0.9 16.7 18.4 0.5 0.3

    Persistent Neutral 381 - 1,523 1,187 1,274 26.7 26.0 34.5 42.6 11.0 8.9 1.6 1.4 14.4 15.4 1.0 0.8

    TCS Neutral 1,261 - 246,884 60,787 68,558 30.1 29.2 65.5 73.6 19.3 17.1 6.0 4.8 31.3 28.2 3.8 3.4

    Tech Mahindra Neutral 721 - 9,198 6,282 6,477 17.5 16.5 82.9 85.0 8.7 8.5 1.9 1.6 21.6 18.4 1.4 1.3

    Wipro Buy 385 451 94,591 44,597 49,033 20.3 20.5 26.6 30.1 14.5 12.8 2.8 2.4 19.5 18.9 1.8 1.5

    Media

    D B Corp Buy 201 269 3,685 1,638 1,851 25.8 26.6 13.5 16.1 14.9 12.5 3.3 2.8 23.9 24.2 2.2 1.8

    HT Media Buy 98 148 2,303 2,224 2,509 16.6 17.2 8.6 10.8 11.4 9.1 1.4 1.2 12.9 14.3 0.6 0.5

    Jagran Prakashan Buy 87 125 2,740 1,521 1,698 22.6 23.1 6.2 6.4 14.1 13.5 3.4 3.0 20.7 23.9 2.1 1.8

    PVR Neutral 165 - 428 625 732 16.5 15.7 11.9 13.3 13.9 12.4 1.4 1.2 11.9 12.0 1.1 0.9

    Sun TV Network Neutral 303 - 11,953 2,002 2,296 77.1 76.7 18.9 22.1 16.1 13.8 4.1 3.6 27.7 28.3 5.4 4.6Metals & Mining

    Bhushan Steel Reduce 475 429 10,093 11,408 13,773 31.0 30.0 53.7 60.8 8.9 7.8 1.3 1.1 15.3 14.9 2.6 2.2

    Coal India Neutral 354 - 223,315 68,841 74,509 25.3 25.3 24.1 26.1 14.7 13.5 4.0 3.3 30.4 26.8 2.3 2.0

    Electrosteel Castings Accumulate 21 22 728 1,984 2,074 11.2 12.6 2.0 2.7 10.3 7.8 0.4 0.2 4.2 5.5 0.5 0.5

    Hind. Zinc Buy 121 141 51,295 13,050 14,585 51.4 52.1 14.5 16.5 8.4 7.4 1.6 1.4 20.8 19.9 2.1 1.5

    Hindalco Neutral 128 - 24,430 83,212 91,057 9.0 9.9 13.7 18.1 9.3 7.1 0.7 0.7 7.9 9.6 0.5 0.5

    JSW Steel Neutral 713 - 15,899 39,592 44,910 18.0 17.7 74.7 88.9 9.5 8.0 0.9 0.8 10.7 11.6 0.8 0.7

    MOIL Accumulate 279 296 4,683 1,007 1,091 56.6 56.9 29.4 31.9 9.5 8.7 1.7 1.5 19.0 18.2 2.4 2.0

    Monnet Ispat Buy 388 447 2,496 3,115 3,748 22.1 25.1 59.1 66.8 6.6 5.8 0.9 0.8 15.6 15.3 1.5 1.2

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    Market Outlook

    Stock Watch

  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 110712

    10/13

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Metals & Mining

    Nalco Reduce 61 54 15,773 8,474 9,024 12.6 16.2 2.6 3.6 23.9 17.1 1.3 1.3 5.6 7.5 1.4 1.4

    NMDC Neutral 193 - 76,578 11,959 13,062 78.2 78.6 19.1 20.9 10.1 9.2 2.5 2.1 27.1 24.4 4.3 3.7

    SAIL Neutral 94 - 38,682 50,914 60,785 14.6 15.1 9.4 10.5 10.0 8.9 0.9 0.8 9.2 9.6 1.2 1.1

    Sesa Goa Neutral 200 - 17,412 9,067 9,316 35.7 35.5 44.5 44.3 4.5 4.5 1.0 0.8 23.5 19.5 0.5 0.2

    Sterlite Inds Accumulate 108 123 36,395 45,294 48,059 25.7 25.3 16.5 18.0 6.6 6.0 0.7 0.6 12.0 11.2 0.5 0.4

    Tata Steel Accumulate 439 499 42,631 143,088 148,011 10.9 12.1 53.9 66.0 8.2 6.7 1.0 0.9 12.2 13.4 0.6 0.6

    Oil & GasCairn India Buy 313 372 59,640 15,513 16,074 74.0 69.7 51.1 48.6 6.1 6.4 1.0 0.9 18.3 14.8 2.7 2.0

    GAIL Neutral 357 - 45,285 50,472 55,502 15.3 15.6 35.4 37.0 10.1 9.6 1.8 1.6 19.0 17.2 0.1 -

    ONGC Accumulate 280 321 239,383 156,331 159,043 37.7 36.3 31.3 32.6 8.9 8.6 1.6 1.4 18.7 17.3 1.2 1.1

    Reliance Industries Neutral 740 - 242,153 316,404 319,119 11.2 12.0 63.5 68.7 11.6 10.8 1.2 1.1 11.7 11.4 0.7 0.7

    Pharmaceuticals

    Alembic Pharma Buy 59 91 1,103 1,624 1,855 14.2 15.6 6.6 9.1 8.9 6.4 2.2 1.7 27.5 29.2 0.9 0.8

    Aurobindo Pharma Buy 114 156 3,329 5,243 5,767 14.6 14.6 11.8 12.6 9.7 9.1 1.0 0.4 11.4 10.9 0.8 0.6

    Aventis* Neutral 2,178 - 1,482 1,682 15.5 15.5 95.0 104.0 22.9 20.9 4.1 3.2 18.6 17.0

    Cadila Healthcare Buy 764 953 15,647 6,196 7,443 18.5 19.5 37.6 47.7 20.3 16.0 4.6 3.6 26.8 27.5 2.5 2.0

    Cipla Buy 327 379 26,260 7,687 8,804 21.4 21.4 16.5 18.9 19.8 17.3 3.1 2.7 16.7 16.8 3.4 2.9

    Dr Reddy's Neutral 1,658 - 28,135 10,696 11,662 20.7 21.0 83.7 92.9 19.8 17.9 4.1 3.5 22.4 21.0 2.7 2.5

    Dishman Pharma Buy 65 92 525 1,280 1,536 17.8 17.8 9.2 11.3 7.1 5.8 0.5 0.5 7.7 8.5 1.1 0.9

    GSK Pharma* Neutral 2,034 - 17,228 2,651 2,993 31.7 31.2 76.0 82.4 26.8 24.7 7.7 6.7 30.8 29.0 5.6 4.8

    Indoco Remedies Buy 55 82 508 685 837 15.2 15.2 7.4 8.9 7.5 6.2 1.1 0.9 15.9 16.3 0.9 0.7

    Ipca labs Buy 373 435 4,700 2,850 3,474 20.3 20.3 31.9 36.3 11.7 10.3 3.6 2.9 26.2 26.8 1.8 1.5

    Lupin Buy 547 647 24,456 8,426 10,082 19.7 20.0 27.4 32.4 20.0 16.9 4.8 3.8 27.0 25.2 2.8 2.3Orchid Chemicals Buy 121 178 853 2,117 2,434 17.7 17.7 16.7 22.2 7.3 5.5 0.7 0.6 9.5 11.5 1.1 0.9

    Ranbaxy* Neutral 496 - 20,922 12,046 11,980 18.0 15.8 35.7 29.8 13.9 16.6 5.2 4.2 43.1 28.1 1.8 1.7

    Sun Pharma Neutral 626 - 64,457 9,272 11,080 38.6 38.0 22.7 22.6 27.6 27.7 4.6 4.1 17.9 15.6 5.6 4.4

    Power

    CESC Accumulate 307 342 3,831 5,084 5,512 24.2 23.8 45.2 48.5 6.8 6.3 0.7 0.7 11.2 10.9 1.2 1.2

    GIPCL Buy 65 77 985 1,557 1,573 28.8 28.5 10.4 10.9 6.3 6.0 0.6 0.6 10.4 10.2 1.1 0.9

    NTPC Neutral 160 - 131,721 74,766 86,549 23.1 23.4 12.4 14.1 12.9 11.4 1.6 1.5 13.0 13.5 2.5 2.3

    Real Estate

    Anant Raj Buy 56 78 1,644 657 875 52.0 56.1 8.4 12.7 6.6 4.4 0.4 0.4 6.3 8.9 3.8 2.8

    DLF Neutral 215 - 36,482 9,878 12,033 44.7 46.1 9.6 13.4 22.4 16.0 1.4 1.4 6.4 8.7 6.2 5.1

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  • 7/31/2019 Market Outlook 110712

    11/13

    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    Real Estate

    HDIL Buy 90 115 3,758 2,441 3,344 55.1 48.2 22.7 26.6 4.0 3.4 0.3 0.3 8.8 9.4 3.4 2.6

    MLIFE Accumulate 330 376 1,349 814 897 26.9 27.0 31.3 33.9 10.6 9.7 1.1 1.0 10.2 10.1 2.0 1.8

    Telecom

    Bharti Airtel Neutral 321 - 122,072 80,076 86,613 32.8 33.5 15.5 19.8 20.8 16.2 2.2 1.9 10.5 11.9 2.2 1.9

    Idea Cellular Neutral 85 - 28,265 23,209 26,063 26.2 27.5 3.3 4.9 26.0 17.3 2.0 1.8 7.7 10.3 1.7 1.5

    Rcom Neutral 71 - 14,686 22,125 23,734 31.9 32.0 4.5 5.9 15.9 12.2 0.4 0.4 2.5 3.1 2.1 1.8

    zOthersAbbott India Accumulate 1,483 1,628 3,151 1,661 1,918 9.7 12.0 60.7 90.4 24.4 16.4 5.0 4.1 22.0 27.3 1.7 1.4

    Bajaj Electricals Buy 201 246 2,001 3,569 4,172 8.6 9.2 17.3 22.3 11.6 9.0 2.5 2.1 22.9 25.3 0.5 0.5

    Cera Sanitaryware Accumulate 290 306 367 395 469 15.4 16.6 30.0 38.0 9.7 7.6 2.1 1.7 23.7 24.5 1.1 1.0

    Cravatex Buy 640 785 165 302 364 5.7 6.0 49.0 71.0 13.1 9.0 3.9 2.8 29.8 30.7 0.7 0.5

    CRISIL Neutral 1,067 - 7,485 982 1,136 34.3 34.3 34.3 40.0 31.1 26.7 14.1 11.3 50.9 46.9 7.2 6.1

    Finolex Cables Buy 42 61 649 2,334 2,687 8.8 9.3 7.6 10.2 5.6 4.2 0.7 0.6 13.7 16.1 0.2 0.2

    Force Motors Buy 490 615 639 2,346 2,753 5.8 6.7 44.0 68.0 11.2 7.2 0.5 0.5 4.8 7.0 0.2 0.2

    Goodyear India Accumulate 335 374 773 1,511 1,692 7.9 9.0 31.5 41.3 10.6 8.1 2.1 1.8 21.2 23.5 0.3 0.2

    Graphite India Buy 88 124 1,722 2,158 2,406 18.1 18.9 12.4 14.0 7.1 6.3 1.0 0.9 14.0 14.3 0.9 0.8

    Greenply Industries Buy 193 309 466 1,925 2,235 10.6 10.9 29.6 44.1 6.5 4.4 1.1 0.9 16.8 21.0 0.5 0.4

    HEG Accumulate 214 242 855 1,746 1,946 16.5 17.7 22.5 32.9 9.5 6.5 1.0 0.9 10.4 14.2 1.1 1.1

    Hitachi Accumulate 149 160 342 857 968 6.9 8.4 10.2 16.0 14.7 9.3 1.8 1.5 12.9 17.8 0.5 0.4

    Honeywell Automation Accumulate 2,670 2,864 2,360 1,761 2,024 6.7 8.2 95.0 127.0 28.1 21.0 3.3 2.8 14.1 16.3 1.2 1.1

    INEOS ABS India Accumulate 725 804 1,275 900 1,020 9.0 11.1 33.0 45.0 22.0 16.1 3.0 2.6 14.3 17.0 1.2 1.0

    ITD Cementation Neutral 230 - 265 1,535 1,842 11.1 11.1 27.3 38.3 8.4 6.0 0.7 0.6 7.9 10.2 0.6 0.6

    Jyothy Laboratories Accumulate 245 268 1,973 1,315 1,568 8.6 11.1 6.4 10.9 38.4 22.5 3.2 3.0 8.4 13.9 1.8 1.5MCX Buy 1,157 1,598 5,901 610 702 65.5 67.0 67.9 79.9 17.1 14.5 5.0 4.2 29.1 28.9 6.8 5.4

    MRF Buy 10,533 13,106 4,467 12,390 14,400 10.4 11.3 1,334.6 1,638.2 7.9 6.4 1.6 1.3 16.5 17.4 0.6 0.5

    Page Industries Neutral 2,947 - 3,288 887 1,108 18.3 18.6 95.0 120.9 31.0 24.4 16.2 13.1 57.4 59.5 3.8 3.0

    Relaxo Footwears Buy 530 618 637 1,019 1,220 11.2 12.2 44.2 61.8 12.0 8.6 2.9 2.2 26.8 28.6 0.8 0.7

    Sintex Industries Buy 65 79 1,787 4,751 5,189 16.3 16.6 13.6 15.8 4.8 4.2 0.6 0.6 12.9 13.2 0.7 0.6

    Siyaram Silk Mills Buy 280 392 263 1,042 1,173 12.4 12.5 66.3 78.5 4.2 3.6 0.8 0.7 21.1 20.8 0.5 0.4

    SpiceJet Buy 34 40 1,654 5,647 6,513 3.5 6.5 1.9 4.9 17.6 7.0 41.3 6.0 - - 0.4 0.4

    TAJ GVK Buy 70 108 438 300 319 35.8 36.2 7.9 9.1 8.9 7.7 1.2 1.1 13.9 14.4 1.8 1.5

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    Company Name Reco CMP Target Mkt Cap Sales ( cr ) OPM(%) EPS () PER(x) P/BV(x) RoE(%) EV/Sales(x)

    ( ) Price ( ) ( cr ) FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E FY13E FY14E

    zOthers

    Tata Sponge Iron Buy 339 420 521 700 806 18.2 18.2 55.6 65.1 6.1 5.2 0.8 0.7 14.2 14.8 0.3 0.2

    TVS Srichakra Buy 332 462 254 1,612 1,827 9.5 9.8 72.3 92.5 4.6 3.6 1.3 1.0 33.1 32.1 0.4 0.3

    United Spirits Neutral 718 - 9,385 10,289 11,421 13.5 14.3 31.0 42.9 23.1 16.7 1.8 1.6 8.1 10.3 1.6 1.4

    Vesuvius India Accumulate 377 413 764 628 716 16.4 16.5 29.8 34.4 12.6 10.9 2.2 1.9 18.8 18.6 1.1 0.9

    Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 10, 2012

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    July 11, 2012Market Outlook