Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical …Blue Science for Blue Growth –Connecting ideas...

Blue Science for Blue Growth – Connecting ideas and people 8 February 2017, Euromarine Event at EU Parliament, Bruxelles

Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools

for supporting marine policy

Simone Libralato([email protected])

Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale

Trophodynamic models to integrate processes and pressures

Blue Science for Blue Growth

Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical developments to tools for supporting marine policy

Libralato S.

Integrating biological processes and

species interaction with different impacts

(including the multitarget and multigear

fisheries) helps understanding cumulative

impacts, permits to highligh trade-offs:

tools for decision support.

Maintaining and monitor the resilience of marine ecosystems

Multiple societal needs

Multiple co-occurring stressors

End-to-End (physic+biogeochemical+trophodynamic) modelling


Libralato S.Blue Science for Blue Growth

Objective:

Understand and predict cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic pressures (e.g., climatechange, fishing, pollution) on marine ecosystemsand the sustainability of services they provide.

• integrated assessment of marine ecosystems

• computation of synthetic indices• quantify attributes relevant to MSFD



fishing scenarios

Simulating changes for hindcast (2000-2010) and a set of future scenarios(2010-2020)

On climateland use/fertilizersfisheries

Evaluating hindcast and future scenarios with a set of indicators possibly useful asattributes in the frameworkof the Marine Framework Strategy Directive



Significant difference in indicatorsbetween PAST and FUTURE, in general there are little differencesbetween future climatic scenariosfor VIGOR, ORGANIZATION and RESILIENCE indicators

Example from Gulf of Lions

In the short term (up to 2020) fisheries scenariosshowed larger impactsthan nutrient-relatedpolicies that where verycontext dependent

Fisheries Mangement strategies evaluation with trophodynamic models



EU Regulation 1380/2013

Common Fishery Policy regulation created for reducing the

bycatch and the discards of european fisheries

Evaluating ecological, economicconsequences and possiblestrategies

Socio-economic implications



Overall Landing obligation will

(1) Reduce biomasses at sea (approx -0.2%)

(2) increase landed material (approx +13%) [more work for fishermen]

(3) Reduce profits & commercial landings (-0.5%)

(4) Optimistic case of discards landed and sold for fishmeal: no increase in profit (change 0%)

Management strategies evaluation

Blue Science for Blue Growth



A) introduction of quotas for small pelagic fish;B) halving the fishing effort of otter trawl fisheries; C) improving selectivity of OTB and TBB fisheries; D) application of both quotas for small pelagic fish and improving

selectivity for OTB and TBB fisheries.



Trophodynamic models: toward operationality

End-to-End modelling is the result of a long term development process that benefited alsoof activities and conferences

There are several ways to build End-to-End models (one/two ways, several links still poorlyrepresented) Networking was important for sharing and Discussing ideas

These kind of models are data demanding(ecosystem data) and it is important a large involvement: these events helped for sharingdata

Dissemination of results and insights to fosterfurther applications

Next steps

Integrating processes

Basic research

Need for long term data

Transdisciplinary

Transboundary

Include stakeholders

Disseminate

Capacity building

Create tools for involving stakeholders



www.euromarinenetwork.eu

Thanks

Ecological Modelling Group (ECHO) at

Marine trophodynamic models: from theoretical …Blue Science for Blue Growth –Connecting ideas...

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