Marcel Caron - Prospectus Defense - December 2016 - Final PDF
-
Upload
marcel-caron -
Category
Documents
-
view
27 -
download
0
Transcript of Marcel Caron - Prospectus Defense - December 2016 - Final PDF
NOAH LAND SURFACE MODEL – MP UPGRADE A Performance Evaluation of the Noah-MP
Land Surface Model
Marcel Caron Undergraduate Student, University of MD, College Park
Advised by E. Hugo Berbery, Ph. D.
Director, CICS-MD
Omar V. Müller CEVARCAM
December 8, 2016
Goals
Ø Does Noah-‐MP improve mesoscale forecasts? Ø Conduct qualita-ve and quan-ta-ve analyses of the
Noah-‐MP LSM forecast performance using a coupled system Ø Understand skill and biases of temperature and precipita-on
simula-ons over CONUS Ø Compare Noah-‐MP and Noah v3.4 simula-ons
Ø Support implementa.on of Noah-‐MP in Next Genera.on Global Predic.on System (NGGPS)
2
NOAA
N: Na-onal Centers for Environmental Predic-on (NCEP) O: Oregon State University -‐ Dpt. AOS A: Air Force H: Hydrology Lab -‐ NWS
Noah LSM processes: Ø Heat fluxes Ø Radia-on fluxes Ø Momentum exchange Ø Hydrological Cycle
3
NCAR, 2004
LSM – Land Surface Model
4
Noah “MP”
Inclusion of Land Surface Processes in NWP
Solid Black: Pre-‐2005 GFS Dashed: GFS w LSM upgrade
Bias Score
Gilbert S
kill Score
“24-‐hour precip. threshold (in.)”
“24-‐hour precip. threshold (in.)”
Mitchell et al., 2005
Land Surface Model MoBvaBon: Ø Land Surface Processes Quan-fied Ø Quan--es provided to parent model… Ø …as Lower Boundary Condi-on to mesoscale NWP models
5 USGS 30-‐second global 24-‐category vegeta-on (land-‐use) data, ORNL
Key input Ø Land use type Ø Soil texture Ø Slope
Derived from Remote Sensing Data (AVHRR)
Data for This Project Ø Noah/WRF-‐NMM coupled
system Ø Original research version of
WRF-‐NMM released in 2003 Ø Boundary Condi-ons
provided by NAM
6
Noah LSM
NAM
NAM
NMM – NonHydrosta9c Mesoscale Model
NOAA, DTC, 2014
Previous version: Noah v 3.4 Ø Root uptake from Water Table Ø Vegeta-on + soil layer Ø Snow + soil layer
7
[2012 Average of Monthly Precip. Totals]
Observed LS Data [NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD] Noah 3.4/ WRF 3.5 Data
millimeters
Niu et al., 2011
Now: Noah “MP” Upgrade Baseline Noah LSM with op-ons that allow for: Ø Water Table depth esBmates Ø Mul9-‐layer snow and canopy
8
[2012 Average of Monthly Precip. Totals]
Observed LS Data [NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD] Noah-‐MP 1.1/WRF 3.5 Data
millimeters
MP – Mul9parameteriza9on
Niu et al., 2011
Water Table Concept
9
hhp://www.walldevil.com/wallpapers/a84/tree-‐field-‐rain-‐rainbow-‐cloud-‐sky.jpg
Ø Moisture Flux Ø Soil Moisture Ø Transpira-on Ø Evapora-on Ø Runoff (Surface
+ Underground) Ø Groundwater
Transfer Ø Root Uptake
Water Table Concept
10
hhp://www.walldevil.com/wallpapers/a84/tree-‐field-‐rain-‐rainbow-‐cloud-‐sky.jpg
Ø Moisture Flux Ø Soil Moisture Ø Transpira-on Ø Evapora-on Ø Runoff (Surface
+ Underground) Ø Groundwater
Transfer Ø Root Uptake
WATER TABLE
Water Table Concept
11
hhp://www.walldevil.com/wallpapers/a84/tree-‐field-‐rain-‐rainbow-‐cloud-‐sky.jpg
Ø Moisture Flux Ø Soil Moisture Ø TranspiraBon? Ø EvaporaBon Ø Runoff (Surface
+ Underground) Ø Groundwater
Transfer Ø Root Uptake
WATER TABLE Yuan et. al, 2008
Methodology: First Steps Ø Qualita-ve Comparison, 30-‐Year Average to 2012
Ø Iden-fy Observed 2012 Anomalies Ø Key Features we want to see in Noah-‐MP/WRF simula-ons
12
NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD Data °Celsius
Observed Mean JJA Temperature (°C) 1982 – 2012 Average 2012
Methodology ConBnued
Ø QualitaBve Analysis: Anomaly Fields Ø QuanBtaBve Analysis: Root Mean Squared Error Ø Annual, Summer, Winter Ø Temperature & Precipita-on
13 hhp://www.clipartkid.com/images/808/up-‐north-‐trees-‐clip-‐art-‐at-‐clker-‐com-‐vector-‐clip-‐art-‐online-‐royalty-‐0MXeeV-‐clipart.png
Value For This Project
14
NCAR’s Research Data Archive NWS’s Environmental Modeling Center
NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory
Ø Noah-‐LSM in NWP: Ø NAM (short-‐range, 12km) Ø GFS (med-‐range, 24km) Ø CFS (long-‐range/seasonal)
Ø Future: Ø Next GeneraBon Global PredicBon System (NGGPS) -‐ 2018
15
Does Noah-‐MP improve mesoscale forecasts?
Ø Given physics upgrades, we expect it to Ø Areas of Deteriora-on?
Ø Methods for analysis will aim to gain quanBtaBve and qualitaBve understanding of changes
Ø NGGPS will run with Noah-‐MP in 2018
References Cai, X. et al., Hydrological evalua-on of the Noah-‐MP land surface model for the Mississippi River Basin, J. Geophys. Res.-‐Atmos., 119, 1, 23-‐38, doi:
10.1002/2013JD020792, 2014. Clark, M. P., D. Kavetski, and F. Fenicia, Pursuing the method of mul-ple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling, Water Resour. Res., 47,
W09301, doi:10.1029/2010WR009827, 2011. De Ridder, K. and Schayes, G., The IAGL Land Surface Model, J. Appl. Meteor., 36, 167-‐182, doi: 10.1175/1520-‐0450(1997)036<01667:TILSM>2.0.CO;2,
1997. Dirmeyer, P. A., et al. Land Surface Modeling in Support of Numerical Weather Predic-on and Sub-‐Seasonal Climate Predic-on, Cola/GMU, hhp://
cola.gmu.edu/lsm/GMU_KIAPS_White_Paper.pdf, 2013. Ek, M. B. and Jasper, M.: Land Surface Modeling (presenta-on). hhp://slideplayer.com/slide/3852992/, 2015. Ek, M. B., et al. Implementa-on of Noah land surface model advances in the Na-onal Centers for Environmental Predic-on opera-onal mesoscale Eta
model. J. Geophys. Res., 108, D22, doi: 10.1029/2002JD003296, 2003. Luo, Y., Berbery, E. H., and Mitchell, K. E. The Opera-onal Eta Model Precipita-on and Surface Hydrologic Cycle of the Columbia and Colorado Basins,
J. Hydrometeo., 6, 341-‐370, doi: 10.1175/JHM435.1, 2005. Mitchell, K. et al. NCEP Implements Major Upgrade to Its Medium-‐Range Global Forecast System, Including Land-‐Surface Component, GEWEX, 15, 4, 8-‐9,
hhp://www.gewex.org/gewex-‐content/files_mf/1432207652Nov2005.pdf#page=8 2005. Murray, S. J., I. M. Watson, and I. C. Pren-ce, The use of dynamic global vegeta-on models for simula-ng hydrology and the poten-al integra-on of
satellite observa-ons, Prog. Phys. Geogr., 37(1), 63–97, doi: 10.1177/0309133312460072, 2013. Niu, G.-‐Y., et al. The community Noah land surface model with mul-parameteriza-on op-ons (Noah-‐MP): 1. Model descrip-on and evalua-on with
local-‐scale measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D12109, doi: 10.1029/2010JD015139, 2011. NOAA, Developmental Testbed Center (DTC), User’s Guide for the NMM Core of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System Version 3,
Chapter 5: WRF NMM Model, www.dtcenter.org/wrf-‐nmm/users/docs/user_guide/V3/users_guide_nmm_chap5.pdf, 2014. Teuling, A. J., et al. Contras-ng response of European forest and grassland energy exchange to heatwaves, Nat. Geosci., 3, 722-‐727, doi: 10.1038/
ngeo950, 2010. Yang, Z.-‐L., et al., The community Noah land surface model with mul-parameteriza-on op-ons (Noah-‐MP): 2. Evalua-on over global river basins, J.
Geophys. Res., 116, D12110, doi:10.1029/2010JD015140, 2011.
16
Extra: EvaluaBng Model Performance: ConBngency Tables
18
False Alarm
Correct Nega-ve
Hit Miss
Modeled Observed
Shuherstock Image
Extra: Comparing Theory to ObservaBon
Ø Previous test regions Ø River Basins Ø Hydrological Cycle
20
Müller et. al, 2016
Extra: Comparison of Noah v3.5 and Noah-‐
MP Features Noah v. 3.5 Noah-‐MP
Vegeta-on + soil combined layer Canopy Layers op-on
Snowpack + soil combined layer Snow Pack Layers op-on
Groundwater Transfer & Storage
Permeable Frozen Soil
Ball-‐Berry Stomatal Resistance
21