Making it Through High School: A Life Table Analysis Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, Charles Hirschman...
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Transcript of Making it Through High School: A Life Table Analysis Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, Charles Hirschman...
Making it Through High School: A Life Table
Analysis Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej, Charles
HirschmanUniversity of Washington
and Joseph Willhoft,
OSPI, State of WashingtonUW-BHS Project Workshop
October 19, 2007
National estimates from the Census Bureau
Cohorts from the early-1960s
2,387
3,006
2,316
1,733
1,452
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
8th Grade
9th Grade
10thGrade
11thGrade
12thGrade
Av
era
ge
Gra
de
Siz
eFigure 2. Students enrolled, by Grade Level: Averages
for Academic Years from 1997-98 to 2004-05.
Research Questions
What is the high school completion rate?
If exiting is a problem, when are students leaving school?
What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?
Administrative School Records Enrolled students: (courses & grades) Typically tabulated in aggregate data
Collaborative with school district research office Possible to match students across years
Unique student ID and birthday Major limitation
Can not distinguish dropouts and out of district transfers Defined universe
First time 9th graders in school district Track for 6 years and measure “net exits” 4 cohorts (entered 9th grade in 96, 97, 98, & 99)
Research Questions—Part OneResearch Questions—Part One
What is the high school completion rate?
When are students most likely to drop out of school?
What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?
Initial Cohort :1,000 studentsenrolled in 9th
on-track
not enrolled
on-track
retained
not enrolled
on-track
retained
not enrolled
on-track
retained
not enrolled
457on-time
Graduates
109Late/Possible
Graduatesb
The Process of School Progression and Attrition
434Net Exits
Drop Outs/Transfersaa
GRADUATION STATUSEND OF 2ND YR END OF 3RD YR END OF 4TH YREND OF 1ST YR
a) Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers).
b) Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.
Initial Cohort :1,000 studentsenrolled in 9th
189 not enrolled
The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4
9th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99) .
END OF 2ND YREND OF 1ST YR
140 retained
671 on-track
70 not enrolled
930 on-track
.07
.93 .72
.14
.14
.84
.14
.02
Initial Cohort:1,000 studentsenrolled in 9th
930 on-track
.93
70 not enrolled
671 on-track
.07
.72
140retained
189not enrolled
.14
.14
534on-track
303not enrolled
.77
.54
.11
.35.12
.11
493on-track
.86
100 retained
407not enrolled
457on-time
Graduates
.92
.40
109Late/Possible
Graduatesb
.09
.05
.41
.19.07
.64
.02
The Process of School Progression and Attrition For an Entering Cohort of 1,000 Ninth Graders: Averages from 4
9th Grade Cohorts (1996 to 99).
.84 .92 .96434
Net ExitsDrop Outs/Transfersaa
.98
.14
.02
.07
.01
.04
.01
GRADUATION STATUSEND OF 2ND YR END OF 3RD YR END OF 4TH YREND OF 1ST YR
a) Net Exits include students that left high school with too few credits (does include some transfers).
b) Students who graduate late, are still enrolled after 6 years, or exited with sufficient credits to graduate.
.01
.34
.02
163retained
Who are the ‘exiters’? Two types:
Dropouts Out of district out-transfers
Unable to differentiate at individual level Use multiple aggregate level indirect estimation
techniques We estimate ~3/5th of the ‘exiters’ either:
1) dropout or 2) transfer and eventually dropout.
For 4 Cohorts of 9For 4 Cohorts of 9thth graders (1996-98), Percentage of graders (1996-98), Percentage of Students that Graduated at end of 4 years (N=6,553)Students that Graduated at end of 4 years (N=6,553)
46%
23%
31%
Graduate in 4 Years (non-transfer)
Potential Graduates(late/out-transfer)
Potential Dropouts
Per
cen
t o
f C
oh
ort
Non-Graduates: 31%Graduates: ~69%
16% Dropout
16% Transfer-Dropout
Research Questions—Part Two
What is the high school completion rate?
If drop-out is a problem, when are students leaving school?
What are the predictors/correlates of high school completion?
Percent Distribution of the Dependent VariablesPercent Distribution of the Dependent Variables
40%46% 49% 51%
Continously on-time on-track 4year graduates
Graduated in 4years-confirmed
Graduated in 5years or less-
confirmed
Graduated in 6years or less-
confirmed
Per
cen
t o
f C
oh
ort
Independent Variables Background: “Risk Factors”Background: “Risk Factors”
Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity GenderGender Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas)Neighborhoods (38 primary school areas) Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level)Family Income (above/below 185% of poverty level) Transferred into district for 9Transferred into district for 9 thth grade grade
Educational Experiences:Educational Experiences: Over-age (indicator of prior retention)Over-age (indicator of prior retention) 99thth grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular grade English—honors, ESL, special, regular First semester 9First semester 9thth grade GPA grade GPA
Four Year High School Graduation by9th Grade 1st Semester GPA
5
26
54
73
10
GPA LT 1 GPA 1 - 1.99 GPA 2 - 2.99 GPA 3 - 4 Took only P/Fclasses
21% 30% 32% 2%16%a
a Percent of Overall Population
9th Grade Failure Strongest predictor of high school completion
9th grade failure has an effect net of GPA in 8th
35% of all student fail at least one class during their 1st semester of high school 37% of all students have a GPA lt 2.0
High levels of failure are pervasive Not limited to select sub-populations
Failure occurs across all class types (i.e. not limited to ‘hard’ classes)
Multivariate Analysis Results
Background and Educational Factors operate in fashion consistent with prior research e.g. Poverty, Bad Neighborhoods, and Transferring
increase risk of not completing high school Most risk factors, but not all are mediated by school
experiences, especially freshman marks E.g. Hispanics have net disadvantage E.g. SES “explains” most of African American disadvantage
Early failure (9th grade) is key predictor, mostly independent of risk factors
Heuristic Model of High School Completion
Background Risk Factors-Demographic -Family of Origin SES-Transferring Schools 9th Grade
GPA/ Experience
Prior Educational Experiences-Prior Retention-Course Tracking-8th Grade GPA
High School Graduation
Concluding Thoughts ~7 of 10 of students graduate from HS in 4 yrs
46% graduate from this district (confirmed) Another ~23% transfer and graduate (estimate)
High school attrition is a process Begins before entering school
families, neighborhoods, & poverty
In the first few years many students fall behind and, subsequently, exit school.
Some dropout—others transfer, then dropout
Transition to High School (9th Grade) is a major challenge Placement and 9th Grade GPA are key factors
Thank you!
Paper available upon request:
Contact Nikolas Pharris-Ciurej
Or visit our project website:
http://depts.washington.edu/uwbhs/
On-time high school graduation. On-time high school graduation.
Delayed Graduation: 5 or 6 yearsDelayed Graduation: 5 or 6 years
Still Enrolled (lStill Enrolled (l0 0 – life table survival)– life table survival) 1, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 91, 2, 3, or 4 years after entering 9thth grade grade
Possible Dependent Variables of High Possible Dependent Variables of High School GraduationSchool Graduation
How many student graduate?
~46% of incoming 9~46% of incoming 9thth graders graduate from graders graduate from same district in 4 years.same district in 4 years.
Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates Estimates of out-transfers graduation rates increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69%increases the 4 year graduation rate to ~69%
Most of the exiting occurs within first 2 yearsMost of the exiting occurs within first 2 years Students tend to fall behind and then exit. Students tend to fall behind and then exit.
It is a process—not an eventIt is a process—not an event
Four Year High School Graduation by GenderFour Year High School Graduation by Gender
4250
Male Female
52%a 49%
a Percent of Overall Population
Four Year High School Graduation byFour Year High School Graduation by Family Income Family Income
51
38
Above 185% Poverty Level Below 185% Poverty Level
58%a 42%
a Percent of Overall Population
4841
53
31 30
White AfricanAmerican
Asian Hispanic Nat Amer/Pac Isl
Four Year High School Graduation by Four Year High School Graduation by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity
58%a
a Percent of Overall Population
20% 15% 5% 2%
Four Year High School Graduation By Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade RetentionPrevious Grade Retention
37
49
Never Retained Retained
76%a 24%
a Percent of Overall Population
Four Year High School Graduation By Transferred into District for 9th Grade
27
49
Did Not Transfer Transferred
85%a 15%
a Percent of Overall Population
4841
53
31 30
White AfricanAmerican
Asian Hispanic Nat Amer/Pac Isl
Four Year High School Graduation by Four Year High School Graduation by Race/EthnicityRace/Ethnicity
58%a
a Percent of Overall Population
20% 15% 5% 2%
Four Year High School Graduation By Four Year High School Graduation By Previous Grade RetentionPrevious Grade Retention
37
49
Never Retained Retained
76%a 24%
a Percent of Overall Population
Four Year High School Graduation by Four Year High School Graduation by 99thth Grade English Class Grade English Class
78
2920
4441
Traditional Adv/ CollegeBound
Special Ed:PT
Special Ed:FT
ESL
18% 8% 3% 3%69%a
a Percent of Overall Population