Major crimes for Kingston Central, Jamaica

Major Crimes in Kingston Central Police Division 2013

Major Crimes in Kingston Central Police Division,

Jamaica[An examination of major crimes committed in

Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica, 2000-2012]

Paul Andrew Bourne

[September 10, 2013]

Citation:

Bourne, P.A. (2013). Major Crimes in Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica: An examination of major crimes committed in Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica, 2000-2012. Kingston: Socio-Medical Research Institue.

Author: Tel: (876) 566 3088 1

Major Crimes in Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica: An examination of major crimes committed in Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica, 2000-2012

Paul Andrew Bourne

3

First Published in Jamaica, 2013 bySocio-Medical Research InstitueKingston, Jamaica, West Indies

© 2013, Socio-Medical Research InstitueKingston, Jamaica, West Indies

4

CONTENTS

Introduction………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 5

Econometric Mode.……………………………………………………………………………………………10

Findings………………………………………………………………………………………………………………12

Conclusion………………………………………………………………………………………………………….49

References………………………………………………………………………………………………………….50

5

Introduction

The crime problem in Jamaica has resulted in heightened fear and victimization, so much so that

it is the number one leading national problem. A cross-national probability survey which was

conducted by Powell, Bourne and Waller (2007) found that 11 out of every 25 Jamaicans

indicated that crime and violence was the leading national problem followed by unemployment

(15 in every 50 Jamaicans) and education (3 in every 50 Jamaicans). Using secondary national

data on inflation, unemployment, exchange rate and murder for Jamaica, Bourne (2011) gross

domestic product (GDP) and the exchange rate are strong predictors of violent crimes in

Jamaica. Embedded in Bourne’s finding is the association between politics and crime, which

goes back to the 1970s.

On examination of a work written by Simmonds (2004), it can be extrapolated there that

the nexus between politics and crimes can be traced to early Nineteenth Century, when salves

established a community in Kingston (Western Kingston) to provide a source of survivability

because of the neglect of the political structure at the time.

…the granting of civil rights to the members of the freed population in the 1830s might be viewed as more than the consequence of political demands made by the more privileged coloureds. It can be seen as an attempt to create an ‘aristocracy’ in the community, thereby inserting a wedge between the slaves and some of their more mobile and influential free collaborators (Simmonds, 2004, 31)

The nexus of crime and politics, therefore, has its historical roots in the Jamaican society

long before the 1970s (Simmonds, Sives, 2003, 1997) and clearly the ‘Badness-honour’ which

permeates the current nation can be ascribed to the 1970s (Gray, 2003a) although it began even

before this date (Sives, 2003). In an article entitled ‘The historical roots of violence in Jamaica:

The Heart Report 1949’ Sives (2003) contended that “strong-arm politics” was used in the 1940s

6

by the two political Institutions (namely, Jamaica Labour Party, JLP; People’s National Party,

PNP) to see governance of the nation. She noted that the rivalry was intense and that many

people lost their lives in the process, particularly political followers. This continued and become

even more intense in the 1970s (Gray, 2003a). According to Obaka Gray (2003), both political

parties (JLP and PNP) had political enforcers, killers and political patronage was introduced into

the society, and ‘badness’ became a party of the Jamaican culture. Within the context of the

intense political rivalry among members of the two traditional political parties (PNP and JLP),

the confrontation of the members to protect resource allocation has led to violent crimes (Sives,

2003; Gray, 2003a, 2003b) and electoral crimes (Figueora and Sives, 2003).

The economic climate in Jamaica has contributed to the proliferation and continuation of

the political division among the people, which supports ‘badness’ and killings. Gray (2003b)

aptly captures this:

The failure of economic policies, near-weekly accounts of human rights abuses, and recurrent disclosures of the corruption of power, the political bosses have retained their predominance, and the political apparatus that supports them has remained largely unchanged… (Gray, 2003, 73)

Even prior to Gray’s postulations, discourses on the contribution of violence in Jamaica,

has been narrated. The Library of Congress (1987) laid the foundations that accounted for

violence, particularly political violence. The Library of Congress writes:

The nation's political violence derives from the socioeconomic structure of Jamaican politics, that is, social stratification along racial and economic class lines. Increasing political, social, and economic polarization in Jamaica has contributed to both political and criminal violence (Library of Congress, 1987, chap. 2. The page number would have been more appropriate than the chapter since it is a direct quote)

Both Obika Gray and the Library of Congress suggested that politics accounts for some

aspect of violent crimes in Jamaica, which would include murders. This is keeping with the

7

political rivalry between hardliners of the two main political parties in pursuit of political power

and patronage. Studies have established the interrelation between politics and crime in Jamaica

(Harriott, 2003a, 2003b, 2004a, 2004b; Robotham, 2003). The current reality in Jamaica is well

documented by Boxill et al. (2007) who posit:

The murder rate moved from 19.2 per 100,000 to 39 per 100,000 in the same period [1977 and 2000]. In 2004, Jamaica was ranked as a country with one of the highest murder rates in the Caribbean (Boxill et al., 2007, 117)

The murder phenomenon identified by Boxill et al. (2007) has worsened between 2004

and 2009, which increased by 14.2 percentage points (March and Bourne, 2011). All the murders

committed in Jamaica have been during a particular political party’s tenure in governance (either

in the Jamaica Labour Party or the People’s National Party). The current crime problem that has

risen to epidemic proportion in Jamaica was even compared to crimes statistics in New York and

figures revealed a serious problem, which requires immediate divorce between politics and

crime. According to the World Bank:

Between 1998 and 2000, according to police report, drug and gang related murder accounted on average for 22 percent of total murders. Domestic violence represented about 30 percent of total murders. The rising severity of the murder problem is highlighted by comparison with New York, a high crime city – while both Jamaica and New York experienced similar rates of murder in 1970, Jamaica’s murder rate had increased to almost seven time that of New York’s by year 2000 (World Bank, 2003, 121)

The empirical evidence of the World Bank coupled with the aforementioned studies on

the crime problem in Jamaica explain the societal consciousness and call for the divorced

between crime and violence. One sociologist (Don Robotham) opined that “Probably the most

intractable factor contribution to violent crime in Jamaica is the interconnecting network of

criminal gangs, drug running, politics and the police” (Robotham, 2003, 215). A rationale which

8

supports an examination of the theoretical framework of the relationship between crime and

politics in Jamaica is embedded in this postulation made by Robotham that “...the political

parties, they rely on party ‘soldiers’ [political enforcers] to deliver the vote during elections or,

as recent events vividly demonstrated, to keep the peace during civil disturbances (Robotham,

2003, 217). While plethora of studies exist on the association between crime and politics in

Jamaica (Robotham, 2003; Harriott, 2003a, 2003b; Gray, 2003a, 2003b; Sives, 2003; Clarke,

2006; Leslie, 2010), the general experiences are similarly the case across many other nations in

the Caribbean (Brathwaite, 2004; United Nations and World Bank, 2007; Lashin, 2006) and how

the police force supports the politics of crimes (Mars, 2004). Harriott (2004) aptly contextualized

the crime phenomenon in the Caribbean when he postulated that “The problem of crime in the

Caribbean – its causes, its consequences, and its control – emerged as a major concern during the

1990s” (Harriott, 2004, 1). He went on to say that “The Caribbean Community (CARICOM)

Heads of Government Conference, at its Twenty-Second Meeting held in Nassau, the Bahamas

in July 2001 expressed disquiet with regard to this problem and the threats that it poses to public

safety and to the social and economic well-being of the people of the region” (Harriott, 2004, 1).

Crime in the Caribbean had reached an alarming proportion that this called for some crime

prevention mechanisms and governmental interventions. Civil society was not excluded from

various bodies called upon to actively forsward measures that could address the crime pandemic

that had swept through the society. In 1998, this prompted a conference which was hosted in

Barbados on ‘Crime and Criminal Justice in the Caribbean’ in order to ascertain measures,

policies, programmes and intervention that can be instituted to redemy the crime pandemic

(Harriott, 2004, viii). Harriott (2004) contended that “The problem of crime in the Caribbean –

its causes, it consequences, and its control – emerged as a major concern during the 1990s”(p. 1).

9

He went on to state that crime and HIV/AIDS “are wreaking havoc on our population”(p. 1),

suggesting that the crime pandemic is polorazing many peoples and therefore must be addressed

with urgency (See also, Stone, 1987, 1988; Gray, 2003; Harriott, 2003; Robotham, 2003;

Francis, et al., ; Boxill, Lewis, Russell, et al., 2007). In 2007, a group of academic researchers

conducted a cross-national and cross-border probability sample survey in the Caribbean and

Latin American and found that 10.1 percentages of Jamaicans have been victims of crime

compared to 16.9 percentages in Haiti; 19.2 percentages in Hondorus, and 26.2 percentages in

Peru (Boxill, Lewis, Russell, et al., 2007), and opined that “The crime rates vary in structure and

complexity across different countries of the region [Caribbean and Latin America]”(p. 113).

The current crime problem in Caribbean, particularly Jamaica can be traced to early

nineteenth century in Kingston. The early settlers in Kingston were primarily poor and free

slaves, and while the establishment of dwellings therein were in response to the economics at the

time, criminal activities were committed only by a small percentage of the populace (Simmonds

2004). The pull factors to criminal activities were economic hardship, perceived betterment from

the alternative investment schemes and the low probability of being incarcerated (Becker, 1968).

The economic marginalization of the peasants, income maldistribution, social exclusions and

economic progress of the bourgeoisie (planters) class during slavery provide a justification for

social deviances (Besson, 1995; Gordon, 1987; Stone, 1987, 1988; Beckford, 1972). Criminality

being an economic phenomenon (Becker, 1968; Francis, et al, 2001) provides a justification

criminal networks operating from different geographic locatity in order to carry out their

activities, organised criminality (see Harriott, 2008).

10

On examination of the literature, no study emerged which evaluates major crimes in

Jamaica, particularly in Kingston Central for the period 2000-2012. The aim of this paper is to

comprehensively examine major crimes in Jamaica, particularly in Kingston Central from 2000

to 2012.

Econometric model

The tool of regression is an important part of econometrics, which is widely used by those by

supporters of the positivistic (or post) paradigm. Positivism which is a theoretical framework has

been used to guide methodologies that were primarily quantitative and accounts for discoveries

like Newton’s Law “F=ma” (Force is equal to product of mass and acceleration). For centuries,

scientific attitude was guided by this theoretical framework as science was embodied in proof,

verification, validation and objectification. This explains the preponderance of inquiries that

utilize the positivism and post-positivism theoretical framework and methodologies that were

solely objective. The precision and objectivity which are embedded in positivism was used by

Gary Becker in his seminal work on factors of crime in the 1960s (Becker, 1968).

Becker’s shaping work concludes a utility maximization framework that establishes

factors which influence an individual’s choice in crime. Becker’s utility maximization crime

framework expresses crime as a function of many variables. These are displayed in Equation [1],

below:

y = f(x1, x2,, x3, x4, x5, x6 , x7) ............................................................. [1]

where y = hours spent in criminal activities,

x1 = wage for an hour spent in criminal activity,

x2 = hourly wage in legal employment,

11

x3 = income other than from crime or employment

x4 = probability of getting caught,

x5 = probability of being convicted if caught,

x6 = expected sentence if convicted, and

x7 = age

Becker’s economic crime function establishes that crime is a function of employment

(return from employments), economic activities outcome of criminal actions and economic

betterment from engagement in crime. With poverty being an incapacitation, it could be deduced

from utility maximization crime function that critical to the participation in criminal activities as

an economic medium of survivability created by a failure of the formal economy.

Becker’s has set the foundation for the utilization of econometrics, particularly regression

techniques, in the examination of crime data. Classical Linear Regression models attempt to

assess the relationship between a single dependent variable and explanatory (or independent

variables). Bourne (2011) employed classical linear regression model to data in Jamaica on

evaluating macroeconomic factors of violent crimes. He tested the hypothesis that violent crimes

is influences by selected macroeconomic variables - (in Equation [2])

yt = f (pt, it, ut, ert, GDPt) + et ………………………………………………. [2]

where yt= number of violent crimes, pt is poverty, it is inflation, ut denotes

unemployment, ert represents annual exchange rate, and et is the random error and t stands for

time.

12

Findings

Major Crime in Jamaica: A contextual background

Major crimes in the last thirteen years (2000-2012) have been steadily decline (Figure 1). In

2000, major crimes for Jamaica stood at 16,469 and by 2012 it fell by 35.1 percentage points.

Based on the statistics, on average, 1,372 committed major crimes on a monthly basis or 343 on

a weekly basis in 2000 and this fell to 891 on a monthly and 222 on a weekly basis. Further

computation means that in 2000, 5 major crimes were committed hourly in Jamaica compared to

1 in 2012.

From Figure 1, we can determine a function to express major crimes in Jamaica, using

time as the sole independent variable:

Y = -429.9X + 16,321……………………………………………………Eqn [1]

Where Y denotes major crimes in Jamaica and X means time (or year)

It should be noted that the Eqn [1] accounts for 80 percentage points of the data points.

13

Figure 1: Major crimes in Jamaica, 2000-2012

14

Figure 2 shows the daily major crimes committed in Jamaica from 2000 to 2012. The values for

daily crimes were computed based on total major crimes for the year divided by 365. The results

therefore reflect a non-leap year. With major crimes decline since 2000, this begs the question

why in crimes are considered a serious problem in Jamaica. A study by Powell, Bourne and

Waller found that crime emerged as the number one problem for Jamaicans that require urgency

and immediate governmental interventions.

Figure 2: Daily major crimes committed in Jamaica, 2000-2012

15

Figure 3 shows a graphical display of the number of murder committed in Jamaica from 2000 to

2012. Generally, although major crimes have been on the decline in Jamaica from 2000, murders

have been trending down only since 2009. In 2009, the most murders were committed in the

annals of Jamaica with 5 people being murdered daily in that year and this marginally fell 4

people in 2010 and has been falling ever since 2009. On careful examination of the murder

statistics for Jamaica (See Figure 3), it is best fitted by a polynomail expression (i.e. a quadratic

equation). The polynomial expression for numbers is fitted by this equation:

Y = -15.42X2 + 242X + 591.9 ……………………………………………………..Eqn [2]

Where Y denotes number of murders and X being the time (year) and that 65.4 percentate

points of the data are explained by Eqn. [2].

Figure 3: Number of murders in Jamaica, 2000-2012

16

Figure 4 presents a graphical display of daily murders in Jamaica from 2000 to 2012. Currently,

3 people are murdered in Jamaica on a daily basis (ie. 2012), which fell from 5 in 2009 and 2005.

It should be noted here that in those periods, there were no general and/or local government

elections in Jamaica.

Figure 4 : Daily number of murder for Jamaica, 2000-2012

17

Major Crime in Kingston Central

Table 1 presents information on major crimes committed in Kingston Central Division between

1999 and 2013. Generally, total major crimes committed in the Kingston Central Division have

be declining. Despite the decline in overall major crimes for the Division, the percentage of

major crimes in the Division with respect to Jamaica is relatively the same. In 2000, 2.5

percentage points of major crimes were committed in Kingston Central Division (419/16 469

*100) and in 2012, the percentage was 2.3 and lowest being in 2006 (1.73%). Major crimes for

the period (2000-2012) have declined by 45.6 percentage points compared to murder that fell by

54.0 percentage points. While most of the major crimes have been on the decline for the period,

carnal abuse has been on the rise, with murders increased by 61.1 percentage points in 2012 over

2011 and the figure for carnal abuse being an increase of 58.3 percentage points.

Table 1: Major Crimes for Kingston Central, 2000-2012

Year Murder Shooting RapeCarnal abuse Robbery Break-in Larceny

Total Major Crimes

2000 63 110 29 11 117 46 43 4192001 76 102 43 13 124 86 37 4812002 82 96 34 4 128 32 26 4022003 44 64 27 17 101 9 24 2862004 45 85 31 11 69 42 21 3042005 70 75 17 15 57 14 10 2582006 58 51 22 8 60 17 7 2232007 67 74 26 19 40 24 5 2552008 71 74 28 20 57 13 11 2742009 54 49 7 2 60 29 25 2262010 30 35 23 11 71 60 26 2562011 18 20 22 20 48 24 30 1822012 29 44 18 20 76 19 22 228

TOTAL 707 879 327 171 1 008 415 287 3 794

18

Figure 5 presents a graphical display of the average number of crimes committed in the last

thirteen years in Kingston Central. Robberies and shootings are among the most frequently

committed major crimes in the Kingston Central Division. The average number of shootings

carried out in the period was 68 compared to 78 robberies in the same time interval.

Figure 5: Average number of crimes committed between 1999 and 2013

19

Figure 6 presents a graphical display of major crimes committed in the Kingston Central

Division (ie. Police Classification Kingston, Jamaica).

20

Figure 6: Major Crimes in Kingston Central, 2000-2012.

21

Table 2 presents overall probabilities and individual probabilities for the major crimes committed

in the Kingston Central Division, Jamaica. Generally, over the last 13 years (i.e. 2000-2012), the

probability of murder committed in Kingston Central Division is 0.19 compared to 0.23 for

shootings, 0.27 for robbery and 0.11 for break-ins (Table 2).

Table 2: Probability of Major Crimes in Kingston Central, Jamaica

22

Figure 7 presents an extract of the probabilities of murder and shooting in Kingston Central

Division, Jamaica.

Figure 7: Extracted Probabilities of murder and shooting for Kingston Central Division, Jamaica

23

Figure 8 presents an extract of the probabilities of carnal abuse and rape in Kingston Central

Division, Jamaica.

Figure 8: Extracted Probabilities of rape and carnal abuse for Kingston Central Division, Jamaica

24

Figure 9: Extracted Probabilities of robbery, break-in and larceny for Kingston Central Division, Jamaica

25

Figure 10: Extracted Probabilities of murder, shooting and robbery for Kingston Central Division, Jamaica

26

Table 3 presents a detailed description of the descriptive statistics on the major crimes committed

in Kingston Central Police Division, Kingston, Jamaica. Over the last 13 years (2000-2012), on

average there were 54 murders, 68 shooting instances, 25 recorded rapes, 13 carnal abuse cases,

78 instances of robberies, 32 break-in, and 22 larceny instances.

Table 3: Descriptive Statistics: Major Crimes in Kingston Central

Statistics

Murder Shooting Rape Carnal abuse Robbery Break-In Larceny Ln Break-in

N 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mean 54.38 67.62 25.15 13.15 77.54 31.92 22.08 3.27

Median 58.00 74.00 26.00 13.00 69.00 24.00 24.00 3.18

Mode 18.00a 74.00 22.00 11.00a 57.00a 24.00 26.00 3.18

Std. Deviation 19.91 27.0 8.80 6.07 29.82 21.87 11.38 .65

Variance 396.26 728.92 77.47 36.81 889.27 478.41 129.58 .42

Skewness -.48 -.11 -.04 -.48 .73 1.44 .11 .21

Minimum 18.00 20.00 7.00 2.00 40.00 9.00 5.00 2.20

Maximum 82.00 110.00 43.00 20.00 128.00 86.00 43.00 4.45

a. Multiple modes exist. The smallest value is shown

27

Table 4 presents Pearson’s Product Moment Correlations of the various major crimes committed

in the Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica. Moderate to strong positive statistical

correlations emerged in particular pairs of major crimes committed in Kingston Central Police

Division, Jamaica. A strong positive statistical correlation existed between murder and shooting

(r = 0.797, P = 0.001) as well as larceny and robbery (r = 0.698, P = 0.008), with moderately

strong correlation existing between rape and shooting (r = 0.654, P = 0.015), robbery and

shooting (r = 0.644, P = 0.018), rape and robbery (r = 0.632, P = 0.021), and larceny and break-in

(r = 0.627, P = 0.022).

Table 4: Pearson’s Product Moment Correlations: Major Crimes in Kingston Central Police Division, Jamaica

Murder Shooting Rape Carnal abuse Robbery Break In Larceny

Murder Pearson Correlation 1

Sig. (2-tailed)

N13

Shooting Pearson Correlation 0.797** 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.001

N 13 13

Rape Pearson Correlation 0.411 0.654* 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.163 0.015

N 13 13 13

Carnal abuse Pearson Correlation -0.319 -0.222 0.101 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.288 0.465 0.743

N 13 13 13 13

Robbery Pearson Correlation 0.373 0.644* 0.632* -0.348 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.210 0.018 0.021 0.244

N 13 13 13 13 13

Break In Pearson Correlation 0.119 0.350 0.554* -0.284 0.496 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.699 0.241 0.050 0.347 0.084

N 13 13 13 13 13 13

Larceny Pearson Correlation -0.156 0.247 0.327 -0.219 0.698** 0.627* 1

Sig. (2-tailed) 0.611 0.417 0.276 0.473 0.008 0.022

N 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).

*. Correlation is significant at the 0.05 level (2-tailed).

28

Figure 11

Figure 11: Linear model of shooting and murder in Kingston Central Police Division

30

Figure 12

Figure 12: Quadratic model of shooting and murder in Kingston Central Police Division

31

Murder function

Murder = α + β1X1 + εi ……………………………………… Eqn [1.1]

Murder = 43 + 0.605X1 …….…….…….…………………… Eqn [1.2]

Where β1 denotes the coefficient of variable X1 (i.e. shooting)

Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized

Coefficients

t Sig. 95.0% Confidence Interval for B

B Std. Error Beta Lower Bound Upper Bound

1 (Constant) 43.074 24.598 1.751 .123 -15.091

Shooting .605 .175 .821 3.463 .011 .192

Rape .127 .593 .056 .215 .836 -1.275

Carnal_abuse -.834 .673 -.254 -1.238 .256 -2.426

Larceny -.685 .360 -.392 -1.901 .099 -1.536

lnBreakIN -2.059 7.410 -.067 -.278 .789 -19.581

a. Dependent Variable: Murder

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the

Estimate

Change Statistics

R Square Change F Change df1 df2

1 .903a .816 .684 11.19173 .816 6.193 5

a. Predictors: (Constant), lnBreakIN, Shooting, Carnal_abuse, Larceny, Rape

b. Dependent Variable: Murder

ANOVAa

Model Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig.

1 Regression 3878.293 5 775.659 6.193 .017b

Residual 876.784 7 125.255

Total 4755.077 12

a. Dependent Variable: Murder

32

b. Predictors: (Constant), lnBreakIN, Shooting, Carnal_abuse, Larceny, Rape

SHOOTING FUNCTION

Shooting = α + β1X1 + εi ……………………………………… Eqn [2.1]

Shooting = -25 + 1.04X1 …….…….…….…………………… Eqn [2.2]

Where β1 denotes the coefficient of variable X1 (i.e. murder)


Coefficients



1 (Constant) -24.946 37.574 -.664 .528 -113.793

Rape .728 .732 .237 .994 .353 -1.003

Carnal_abuse .271 .971 .061 .279 .789 -2.025

Larceny .744 .510 .314 1.458 .188 -.463

lnBreakIN -.756 9.781 -.018 -.077 .941 -23.884

Murder 1.044 .301 .769 3.463 .011 .331

a. Dependent Variable: Shooting

ANOVAa


1 Regression 7234.898 5 1446.980 6.698 .013b

Residual 1512.179 7 216.026

Total 8747.077 12


b. Predictors: (Constant), Murder, lnBreakIN, Carnal_abuse, Larceny, Rape

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Change Statistics

33

Std. Error of the

Estimate


1 .909a .827 .704 14.69781 .827 6.698 5

a. Predictors: (Constant), Murder, lnBreakIN, Carnal_abuse, Larceny, Rape

b. Dependent Variable: Shooting

34

Shooting function

Model Summaryb

Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the

Estimate

Change Statistics


1 .906a .821 .694 14.93623 .821 6.442 5

a. Predictors: (Constant), Murder, lnBreakIN, Carnal_abuse, Robbery, Rape

b. Dependent Variable: Shooting

ANOVAa


1 Regression 7185.441 5 1437.088 6.442 .015b

Residual 1561.636 7 223.091

Total 8747.077 12


b. Predictors: (Constant), Murder, lnBreakIN, Carnal_abuse, Robbery, Rape

38

Coefficientsa


Coefficients



1 (Constant) -42.587 41.272 -1.032 .336 -140.181

Rape .250 .922 .082 .272 .794 -1.929

Carnal_abuse .722 1.113 .162 .649 .537 -1.910

Robbery .303 .223 .334 1.355 .218 -.226

lnBreakIN 6.325 9.308 .152 .680 .519 -15.685

Murder .924 .286 .682 3.235 .014 .249


39

Modeling Murders for Kingston Central Division

43

Modeling Shootings in Kingston Central Police Division

44

Modeling Robbery for Kingston Central Police Division

45

Modeling Larceny for Kingston Central Police Division

46

Modeling Break-in in Kingston Central Police Division

47

Correlations

Murder Unemployment_rate Exchange_rate

Pearson Correlation Murder 1.000 -.549 -.544

Unemployment_rate -.549 1.000 .590

Exchange_rate -.544 .590 1.000

Sig. (1-tailed) Murder . .040 .042

Unemployment_rate .040 . .028

Exchange_rate .042 .028 .

N Murder 11 11 11

Unemployment_rate 11 11 11

Exchange_rate 11 11 11

48

Table

Correlations matrix

Murder Rape Carnal_abuse lnBreakIN Shooting Unemployment_rate

Pearson Correlation Murder 1.000 .352 .041 -.037 .660

Rape .352 1.000 .278 .406 .683

Carnal_abuse .041 .278 1.000 -.372 .103

lnBreakIN -.037 .406 -.372 1.000 .295

Shooting .660 .683 .103 .295 1.000

Unemployment_rate -.549 -.323 -.336 .398 -.472

Poverty_rate -.359 .161 -.507 .379 .062

Inflation_rate -.229 -.105 .712 -.347 -.273

Exchange_rate -.544 -.728 -.086 -.146 -.883

Robbery .281 .643 -.282 .404 .629

Sig. (1-tailed) Murder . .144 .452 .457 .013

Rape .144 . .204 .108 .010

Carnal_abuse .452 .204 . .130 .381

lnBreakIN .457 .108 .130 . .189

Shooting .013 .010 .381 .189 .

Unemployment_rate .040 .167 .156 .113 .071

Poverty_rate .139 .318 .056 .125 .428

Inflation_rate .249 .379 .007 .148 .209

Exchange_rate .042 .006 .401 .334 .000

Robbery .201 .016 .201 .109 .019

N Murder 11 11 11 11 11

Rape 11 11 11 11 11

Carnal_abuse 11 11 11 11 11

lnBreakIN 11 11 11 11 11

Shooting 11 11 11 11 11

Unemployment_rate 11 11 11 11 11

Poverty_rate 11 11 11 11 11

Inflation_rate 11 11 11 11 11

Exchange_rate 11 11 11 11 11

Robbery 11 11 11 11 11

49

Conclusion

The crime pandemic that has been plaguing Jamaica is no different from what

obtains in Central Kingston Police Division, and measures to address this

challenge are about the same.

50

References

Alleyne, M. (2012, January 4). Dirty money. Clean. Kingston: The Jamaica Observer.

Arnone, M., and Borlini, L. (2010). International anti-money laundering programs: Empirical

assessment and issues in criminal regulation. Journal of Money Laundering Control

13(3):226-271.

Ayres, R, L. (1998). Crime and Violence as Development Issues in Latin America and the

Caribbean. Washington, D.C: World Bank.

Babbie, E. (2007). The Practice of Social Research 10th Edition. Wadsworth, a Division of

Thomson Learning, Inc.

Baker, C. (2007). Companies brace themselves for cost of new money laundering regulations.

Credit Control. 28(4/5):6-7.

Balashov, Y., & Rosenberg, A. (2002). Introduction. In Philosophy of Science: Contemporary

readings by Balashov, Yuri, and Alex Rosenberg, 3-7. London: Routledge.

Barnes, A. (2004). Prison revolts: Jamaica-style? A Foucauldian analysis. In: Harriott, A.,

Brathwaite , F., and Wortley, S. (2004). Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean.

Kingston: Arawak Publishers, pp. 225-237.

Barth, J.R., Caprio G, and Levine R (Jr.) (2006). Rethinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels

Govern. Cambridge University Press.

Beaumier, C.M. (2008, February-March). (2008). Anti-money-laundering compliance: elements

of a successful program. Bank Accounting and Finance. 21(2):39-42.

Beaumier, C.M., and Hatfield, C.J. (2003, February). Effective anti-money-laundering

monitoring: Issues and challenges. Bank accounting and finance. 16(2):44-48.

51

Becker, G.S. (1968). Crime and punishment: An economic approach. Journal of Political

Economy, 76:69-217.

Beekarry, N. (2011). The international anti-money laundering and combating the financing of

terrorism regulatory strategy: A critical analysis of compliance determinants in

international law. Northwestern Journal of International Law and Business 31(1):137-

193.

Berg, B. (2001). Qualitative Research Methods for the social sciences.4th ed. Allyn and Beacon.

USA.

Blake, D. (2002). Shower Posse: The most notorious Jamaica criminal organization. New York:

Diamond Publishing.

Blalock, H, M., Jr. (1971). Causal models in the social sciences. Chicago: Aldine-Atherton.

Blalock, H.M., Jr. (1963). Correlated independent variables: The problem of multicollinearity.

American Journal of Sociology 42:233-237.

Blalock, H.M., Jr. (1964). Causal inferences in non-experimental research. Chapel Hill:

University of North Carolina Press.

Blalock, H.M., Jr. (1967). Causal inference, closed populations, and measures of association.

American Political Review 61:130-136.

Blalock, H.M., Jr. (1982). Conceptualization and measurement in the social sciences. London:

SAGE Publication.

Booth, W.C., Colomb, G.G., and Williams, JM. (2008). The craft of research, 3 rd ed. Chicago:

Chicago University Press.

Boullion, C. and Buvinic, M. (2003). Inequality, Exclusion and Poverty in Latin America and the

Caribbean: Implications for Development. Inter- American Development Bank52

Bourne, PA, C. Pinnock and DK Blake, 2012. The Influence of Violent Crimes on Health in

Jamaica: A Spurious Correlation and an Alternative Paradigm. Journal of Clinical and

Diagnostic Research [serial online] 5-12.

Bourne, PA. (2011). Re-Visiting the Crime-and-Poverty Paradigm: An Empirical Assessment

with Alternative Perspectives. Current Research Journal of Economic Theory 3(4): 99-

117.

Boxill, I., Chambers, C., & Wint, E. (1997). Introduction to social research with applications to

the Caribbean. Kingston, Jamaica: Canoe Press/University of the West Indies.

Brathwaite, F. (2004). Victims of crime in Barbados. In: Harriott A, Brathwaite F, Wortley S,

eds. Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean. Kingston: Arawak Publishers; pp. 97-

128.

Brathwaite, F., and Harriott, A. (2004). Repeat criminal offending in Barbados. In: Harriott A,

Brathwaite F, Wortley S, eds. Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean. Kingston:

Arawak Publishers; pp. 35-56..

Bryman, A. (2001) Social Research Methods. Oxford University Press.

Bryman, A., & Cramer, D. (2005). Quantitative data analysis with SPSS with 12 and 13: A

guide for social scientists. London: Routledge.

Burnham, P., Gilland, K., Grant, W., & Layton-Henry, W. (2004). Research Methods in Politics.

Palgrave MacMillan. USA.

Chadee, D. (2003). Fear of crime and the risk of victimization: An ethnic comparison. Social and

Economic Studies, 52(1):73-98.

53

Chong, A., and Lopez-De-Silanes, F. (2007). Money laundering and its regulation. Washington:

Inter-American Development Bank, Working paper # 590.

Clarke, C., 2006. Politics, violence and drugs in Kingston, Jamaica. Bulletin of Latin American

Research, 25: 420-440

Crotty, Michael. (2005). The foundations of social research: Meaning and perspective in the

research process. London: SAGE.

Daugbjerg, C. (1998). Policy Networks under Pressure. Aldershot: Sage.

Denzin, N.K., and Lincoln, Y.S., eds.(2000). Handbook of qualitative research, 2nd ed. London:

SAGE.

Ellis H. (1992). Identifying crime correlates in a developing society: A study of socio-economic

and socio-demographic contributions to crime in Jamaica, 1950-84. New York: Peter

Lang.

Ellis, H. (1991). Report on Research into the Causes of Crime and Violence in Jamaica: a Study

of Prison Inmates. Kingston: National Task Force on Crime and Violence.

Figueroa, M., and Sives, A. (2003). Garrison politics and criminality in Jamaica: Does the 1997

election represent a turning point? In: Harriott, A. Ed. Understanding crime in Jamaica:

New challenges for public policy. Kingston: University of the West Indies Press; pp. 63-

88.

Flick, U. (2006). “An introduction to qualitative research,” 3rd ed. London: SAGE, 2006.

Goel, M. (1988). Political Science Research: A Methods Handbook. Iowa State University Press.

USA.

54

Gray, O., 2003a. Rogue culture or avatar of liberation: The Jamaican lumpenproleteriat.

Economic and Social Survey, 51:1-34.

Gray, O., 2003b. Predation Politics and the Political Impasse in Jamaica. Small Axe, 13:72-94.

Griffith, I.L. (2004a). Caribbean security in the age of terror: Challenge and change. Kingston:

Ian Randle Publishers, 2004a.

Griffith, I.L. (2004b). Introduction: Understanding reality, interpreting change. In Caribbean

security in the age of terror: Challenge and change by Ivelaw L. Griffith xxiii-xxxiii.

Kingston: Ian Randle Publishers, 2004b.

Gubrium, J., & Holstein, J. (2001). Handbook of interview research: context and method. Sage

Publication, Inc. USA.

Hakim, C. (1987). Research design: Strategies and choices in the design of social research.

London: Unwin Hyman.

Harriott A, Brathwaite F, Wortley S, eds. (2004). Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean.

Kingston: Arawak Publishers; pp. 238-264.

Harriott A. (2004). The Jamaican crime problem: Some policy consideration. In: Harriott A,

Brathwaite F, Wortley S, eds. Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean. Kingston:

Arawak Publishers; pp. 238-264.

Harriott, A. (2003a). Fear and criminal victimization in a reputed violent environment. Social

and Economic Studies 52:35-72.

Harriott, A. (2003b). Editor’s overview. In: Harriott, A. Ed. Understanding crime in Jamaica:

New challenges for public policy. Kingston: University of the West Indies Press; pp. Ix-

xx.

Headley B. (1994).The Jamaican crime scene: A perspective. Mandeville: Eureka Press.

55

Henry, P. (Monday, April 21, 2008). NCB again blocked from closing Olint’s account. Kingston:

The Jamaica Observer; p. 12.

Henry, P., and Davis, V. (Friday, April 12, 2008). Cash Plus boss, brother arrested. Kingston:

Jamaica Observer; p. 3.

Hertz, R. and Imber, J. (1995) ‘Introduction’, in R. Hertz and J. B. Imber (eds.),“Studying Elites

using Qualitative Methods”. London Sage.

Husisian, G. (2010). Coping with U.S. regulation of international conduct: Anti-Money

Laundering and sanctions compliance. Insights 24(1):14-26.

International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2001). Financial system abuse, financial crime and money

laundering. Washington D.C: IMF. Retrieved from

http://www.imf.org/external/np/ml/2001/eng/021201.htm.

Jamaica Gleaner (2011a, May 5). Editorial- Jamming with the scammers. Kingston: Gleaner.

Jamaica Gleaner (2011b, November 17). Alleged lotto scam mastermind granted bail. Kingston:

Gleaner.

Jamaica Gleaner (2011c, June 16). Multibillion lottery scam JOLTed. Kingston: Gleaner.

Jamaica Gleaner Editorial. (Friday, April 18, 2008). Regulating the financial sector. Kinston:

Jamaica Gleaner; p. A8.

Jamaica Observer (2012, February, 29). Two cops charged for lottery scam robbery. Kingston:

Jamaica Observer. Retrieved from http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/-Two-

cops-charged-for-lottery-scam-robbery#ixzz1o0w2u3mM. Accessed March 7, 2012.

Jamaica Star (2011, October 11). An advisory has been issued by the state police in eastern

Kentucky in the United States warning persons of the Jamaican lottery scam. Kingston:

Jamaica Gleaner.

56

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/-Two-cops-charged-for-lottery-scam-robbery#ixzz1o0w2u3mM

http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/latestnews/-Two-cops-charged-for-lottery-scam-robbery#ixzz1o0w2u3mM

http://www.imf.org/external/np/ml/2001/eng/021201.htm

Jones, S. (2000). Understanding Violent Crime. Buckingham: Open University Press.

Jones, S. (2000). Understanding Violent Crime. Buckingham: Open University Press, xiii.

Kish, L. (1965). Survey sampling. New York: John Wiley & Son.

Kuhn, Thomas S. (1996). The structure of scientific revolutions 3rd. Chicago: The University of

Chicago Press.

Lashin, D.D. (2005). Crime in the Caribbean.

Leedy, P., & Ormrod, J. (2010) Practical Research Planning and Design Ninth Ed. Pearson

Educational Inc. USA.

Leslie, G., 2010. Confronting the don: The political economy of gang violence in Jamaica, Small

Arms Survey, Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies: Geneva.

Levy, H. 1996. They cry ‘respect’: Urban violence and poverty in Jamaica. Kingston: Centre for

Population, Community and Social Change, Department of Sociology and Social Work,

the University of the West Indies, Mona.

Lewis-Beck, Michael S. (1980). Applied regression: An introduction. California: SAGE

Publications.

Library of Congress, 1987. Caribbean Islands: A Country Study, Washington, D.C.: Library of

Congress, Federal Research Division, chapter 2.

Mamingi, N. (2005). Theoretical and empirical exercises in econometrics. Kingston: University

of the West Indies Press.

Manunta, G. (1998). Security: An introduction. Bedfordshire: Cranfield University Press.

57

Mars, J.R. (2004). Police abuse of force in Guyana: Applying lessons from the United States. In:

Harriott A, Brathwaite F, Wortley S, eds. Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean.


Moser, C. (1999). Youth Violence in Latin America and the Caribbean: Costs, Causes and

Interventions. Latin America and Caribbean Region: The World Bank.

Moser, C., and Holland, J. (1997).Urban Poverty and Violence in Jamaica. Washington, DC,

World Bank.

Munroe, T. (2002). An introduction to politics: Lectures for first-year students, 3rd Edition.

Kingston: Canoe Press, 2002.

Neuman, W. L. (2006). Social research methods: Qualitative and quantitative approaches, 6th ed.

New York: Pearson/Allyn and Bacon.

Pasley, R. (2011). Costly consequences of BSA complacency: Federal anti-money laundering

enforcement hits banks in the wallet. ABA Banking Journal. 103(6): 50-53.

Polit, D.F. (1996). Data analysis and statistics for nursing research. Stamford: Appleton and

Lange Publisher.

Powell, L. A., Bourne, P., & Waller, L. (2007). “Probing Jamaica’s Political culture, volume 1:

Main trends in the July-August 2006 leadership and governance survey.” Kingston:

Centre for leadership and governance, Department of Government, the University of the

West Indies, Mona.

Rabinow, P., and Sullivan, WM. (1979). “Introduction.” In Interpretive social science: A reader.

By Rabinow, Paul, and William M. Sullivan, 1-24. Los Angeles: University of California

Press.

58

Raghaven, K.R. (2006, October-November). Integrating anti-money laundering into the

compliance structure. Bank accounting and finance. 19(6):29-44.

Rahn, R. (2001). The case against federalizing Airport Security. Washington D.C., United States:

Cato Institute. http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3865.

Ramacon, E.G. (2011). Remittances survey 2010, Kingston: Bank of Jamaica (BOJ). Accessed

February 1, 2012 from http://boj.org.jm/uploads/pdf/remittance_survey_results_2010.pdf.

Rea, L.M., & Parker, R.A. (2005). Designing and conducting survey research: A comprehensive

guide, 3rd ed. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

Reuter, P., and Truman, E.M. (2005). Anti-money laundering overkill? It’s time to ask how well

the system is working. The International Economy. 19(1):56-60.

Robotham, D. (2003). Crime and public policy in Jamaica. In: Harriott, A., ed. Understanding

crime in Jamaica: New challenges for public policy. Kingston: University of the West

Indies Press; pp. 197-238.

Rosenberg, A. (1985). The structure of biological science, Chapter 1. Cambridge: Cambridge

University Press; pp. 1-11.

Royal Bank of the Caribbean (RBC). (2010, October). Global AML compliance management:

Framework. Kingston: RBC

Royal Bank of the Caribbean (RBC). (2011, August). Global AML compliance management

framework. Kingston: RBC.

Rubin, H., & Rubin, I. (1995). Qualitative Interviewing: The Art Hearing Data Second Ed. Sage

Publication Inc., USA.

59

http://boj.org.jm/uploads/pdf/remittance_survey_results_2010.pdf

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=3865

S. Ryan, (1997) “The Causes of Poverty: Contrasting Visions” in Ryan, S. Mc Cre e, R. St.

Bernard, G. Behind the Bridge; Poverty, politics and Patronage in Laventille, Trinidad.

The University of the West Indies School of Education, St. Augustine.

Schlick, M. (1979). Philosophical Paper, Vol. 2, ed. H. L. Mulder and BEB. van deVelde-Schlick

pp. 210-24. Dordrecht: Reidel.

Schneider, F. (2008). Money laundering and financial means of organized crime: Some

preliminary empirical findings. “Paola Baffi” centre on central banking and financial

regulation research paper series No. 2008-16. Retrieved on March 24, 2012 from

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1136149.

Shehu, A.Y. (2010). Promoting financial sector stability through an effective AML/CFT regime.

Journal of Money Laundering Control 13(2):139-154.

Shepsle, Kenneth & Bonchek, Mark. (1997). Analyzing Politics: Rationality, Behavior &

Institutions. WW Norton and Co.

Silverman, D. (2005). Interpreting Qualitative Data: Methods for Analysing Talks, Text and

Interaction 2nd ed. SAGE Publication. London.

Simmonds, LE. (2004). The problem of crime in an urban slave society: Kingston in the early nineteenth

century. In: Harriott A, Brathwaite F, Wortley S, eds. Crime and criminal justice in the Caribbean.


Sives, A. (1997). Violence and Politics in Jamaica. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University

of Bradford, Bradford.

Sives, A. (2003). The historical roots of violence in Jamaica: The Hearne Report 1949” in A.

Harriott Ed., Kingston: University of the West Indies Press, pp. 49-62.

60

http://ssrn.com/abstract=1136149

Sykes, R. (2007). Some questions on the FATF 40+9 and the methodology for assessing

compliance with the FATF 40+9 recommendations. Journal of Banking Regulation

8(3):236-243.

Tremblay, R. (1995). Developmental crime prevention. In Tonry, M., and Farrington, D.P., eds.

Building a safer society. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

United Nations (UN) and Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

(ECLAC). (2008). Exploring policy linkages between poverty, crime and violence: A

look at three Caribbean States. Port of Spain: ECLAC.

United Nations (UN) and World Bank. (2007). Crime, Violence, and Development: Trends, Costs, and

Policy Options in the Caribbean, Report No. 37820. New York: UN and World Bank.

Waller, Lloyd G. (2006). ICTs for Whose Development? A critical analysis of the discourses

surrounding an ICT for Development Initiative for a group of microenterprise

entrepreneurs operating in the Jamaican tourism industry: Towards the development of

methodologies and analytical tools for understanding and explaining the ICT for

Development Phenomenon. Unpublished PhD thesis, University of Waikato, New

Zealand.

Weber, Max. (1949). The methodology of the social sciences, trans. Shils, E., and Finch, H., eds.

New York: Free Press.

Weber, Max. (1974). Subjectivity and determinism. In positivism and sociology by Giddens, A.,

23-32. London: Heinemann.

Weber, Max. (1981). Some categories of interpretative sociology. Sociological Quarterly 22:151-

180.

61

Weirsman, W. (2000).Research methods in Education, An Introduction. Massachuetts.Allyn and

Bacon.

Williamson-Hay, C. (2006). The Director of Public Prosecutions and Financial Crime. 1(1):.

Retrieved March 29, 2012 from http://www.facjamaica.org.

World Bank. (2003). Jamaica: The road to sustained growth – Country Economic Memorandum.

Washington D.C: World Bank.

Wortley, S. (2004). Images of disrepute: The depiction of Caribbean people in the Canadian

Print Media. In: Harriott, A., Brathwaite, F., and Wortley, S. Crime and criminal justice

in the Caribbean. Kingston: Arawak Publications; pp. 129-172.

Zeldin, M. (2009). AML compliance in challenging times. Securities Industry New 21(4):4.

Zimiles, E.S. (2004, winter). KPMG survey: Banks accept more costly money-laundering laws,

expect heightened co-operation with regulators. Journal of Investment Compliance.

5(3):26-30.

62

http://www.facjamaica.org/

Major crimes for Kingston Central, Jamaica

Travel

Transcript of Major crimes for Kingston Central, Jamaica