Mainstreet - Manitoba's Choice

8/18/2019 Mainstreet - Manitoba's Choice

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2/18

MANITOBA’S CHOICE

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,809 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on April 14, 2016. A

mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. Regiomargins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.09%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.45%; 19 times out of 20. Results were

weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.


3/18

WHAT THE ELECTION

WAS REALLY ABOUT

Years from now when peoplethink back to this Manitobaelection, what will theyremember?

like to imagine that they willremember all of the greatpolling done by Mainstreet,but that is just my ownfantasy, my own ego.

f I really had to speculate, Ithink one day after PremierPallister is retired and sitting

on the beach in Costa Rica, heshould invite Greg Selingerdown for a visit, to thank himpersonally because thiselection was lost the day GregSelinger decided to run.

This election, like my little

fantasy, is about the ego ofone man and that is how it willbe remembered.

Any other NDP leader at thehelm would have made it acontest, instead of theblowout it will be.

To understand this, we onlyhave to look back at some ofthe numbers we’ve polledhere since 2014.

Back in November of 2014, westarted polling in Manitobaust after the resignation of 5

cabinet ministers. A majorityof people indicated in thatpoll that Greg Selinger should

resign (57%) including 45%who completely agreed heshould resign. Perhaps it’s acoincidence that the PCs nowhave 46% of the decided vote,

and 55% of the decided andleaning vote, numbers verysimilar to what we found overa year and a half ago.

At the time, we also foundthat more people would bewilling to vote NDP with a newleader, 5% more, even with an

un-named leader. How manyNDP seats would be saved inWinnipeg with a 5% increasetoday? At least 3, perhapsmore.

Greg Selinger said he wouldn’tincrease the PST - I don’t have

to tell you that he did. He saidthe funds were directly forflood relief, turns out theyweren’t entirely.

He lied and that day, his fatewas sealed but it didn’t needto seal the fate of theManitoba NDP.

With over a year and a half towork, a new leader could haverighted the ship and made thiselection competitive andsaved the careers of dozens ofMLAs, perhaps might haveeven won government.

What Greg Selinger likelycounted on at the time,

despite seeing these numbis what we saw during the election, and what historichappens in Manitoba. With Liberals in a strong third pl

at 24% in 2014, he expecthat vote to collapse to NDP during the campaign.

If he had read further in t

poll, he would have seen tover 52% of Liberal votagreed he should resign, aeven 1 in 4 NDP voters. T

desire for change in Manitois so strong in fact, so dislikis Greg Selinger that collapsing Liberal vote woverwhelmingly to the Pthroughout the election.

We can forgive Jim Prent

for not seeing the collapcoming in Alberta a year aso sudden and swift was reaction to his budget anumerous mis-steps.

The Selinger train wreck w17 months in the making, ait’s hard to forgive anyone

having the foresight, or bamath skills to simply get outhe way.

Fate may yet be mercifulGreg Selinger in St. Bonifawhere we expect a tight raPerhaps the voters will sh

him the exit he has struggto find.-QM


4/18

FINAL MAINSTREET POLL PROJECTS PC MAJORITY

April 16, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – The final Mainstreet/Postmedia poll for the Manitoba Election Campaign fihe PC party picking up new support across the province. With 46% support among all voters, encluding those presently undecided, Brian Pallister’s PCs are headed towards a majority government.

Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.3%, 19 times out of 20. Margins of error are higor subgroups including decided and leaning subsets.

Among decided and leaning voters: PCs 55% (+5%), NDP 26% (+2%), Liberals 11% (-6%), Greens 9%

change).

What looked like a simple majority last week now looks like a super majority as the PCs gain almospoints to 54.5% among decided and leaning voters,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Resea

One decrease for the PCs is among the leaning undecided voters where they now stand third at 8% behhe NDP at 11% and the Liberals at 12%. This points to the PCs approaching their maximum potential

accessible voters.”

The NDP remains in second, up just 2% to 26% among decided and leaning voters. Their strong supphas increased from 63% to 76% which is an impressive increase, the NDP is unlikely to sink in the closdays of this election as a result.”

The Liberals continue in third again this week and after further setbacks, now sit at just 11% among deciand leaning voters, down 6% from a week ago. They continue to be the overwhelming leaders in secochoice among voters who indicated they might change their minds.”

Expect the Green Party to outperform Liberals in ridings where they have fielded candidates in socases, they now lead the Liberals in Winnipeg. It is unlikely this will yield any seats for the Green Pa

despite a great debate performance by James Bedomme and a visit by federal Green Party leader andElizabeth May but there is a chance for Beddome in his own riding,” finished Maggi.

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three level

government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of pu

opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BrColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling n several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the opolling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected]

For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protecteby copyright. The information and/or data may onlybe rebroadcast or republished with full and propercredit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.


5/18

If the provincial election were held today whicparty would you support? [Manitoba]

UndecidedNDP PC Liberal Green

0

5

0

5

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Jan 7 Jan 27 Feb 11 Feb 20 Mar 12 Mar 19 Mar 29 Apr 5 April 1


6/18

If the provincial election were held today whicparty would you support? [Winnipeg]


0

5

10

15


20

25

30

35

40

45


7/18

If the provincial election were held today whicparty would you support? [Rest Of Manitoba]


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



8/18

If the provincial election were held today whicparty would you support?

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

18-34

19%

47%

7%

10%

18%

247

35-49

22%

42%

8%

7%

21%

372

50-64

20%

48%

8%

6%

18%

555

65+

24%

48%

7%

5%

17%

635

Male

24%

46%

9%

4%

18%

849

Fema

18%

46%

6%

11%

19%

960

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

Sample

Manitoba

21%

46%

7%

7%

19%

1,809

Winnipeg

25%

41%

7%

10%

17%

1,002

Rest of MB

13%

55%

7%

3%

21%

807


9/18

And which Party are you leaning towardsvoting for?

11%

8%

12%

2%

67%



10/18

DECIDED AND LEANING


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60



11/18

DECIDED AND LEANINGWINNIPEG


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50



12/18

DECIDED AND LEANINGREST OF MANITOBA


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70



13/18

If the provincial election were held today whicparty would you support?[DECIDED AND LEANING]

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Sample

18-34

24%

52%

13%

11%

214

35-49

27%

54%

11%

8%

310

50-64

26%

56%

10%

8%

480

65+

29%

57%

8%

6%

553

Male

30%

56%

10%

4%

750

Fema

23%

53%

11%

13%

807

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Sample

Manitoba

26%

55%

11%

9%

1557

Winnipeg

30%

47%

12%

11%

880

Rest of MB

18%

68%

10%

4%

677


14/18

Support Strength

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

80%13%7%

PC

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

76%14%12%

NDP

StrongMight Change

Not Sure

59%21%20%

Liberals


15/18

Second Choice

Liberal Voters Green Party Voters

NDP VotersPC Voters


17%

33%

7%

44%

16%

29%

12%

43%

29%

43%

4%

25%

14%

7%

58%

21%


16/18

If the provincial election were held today which party would you support?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari

Green Party led James BeddomeUndecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for?

NDP led by Greg SelingerProgressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister

Liberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will changeyour mind before Election Day?

Strong SupporterMight Change Mind

Don’t Know

And who would be your second choice?

NDP led by Greg Selinger

Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian PallisterLiberal Party led by Rana BokhariGreen Party led James Beddome

Undecided

SCRIPT


17/18

ONLY WE

CALLED

THELIBERAL

MAJORITY

Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East

| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interviewwith a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Pub

Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a weekbefore we voted.

Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 20in defiance of the majority of the polls.

His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanatiofor how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running

political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015


18/18

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all thrlevels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadi

public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liber

government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet h

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal major

government in the 2015 federal election.

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE

mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER

@MainStResearch

FACEBOOK

fb.com/mainstresearch

Mainstreet - Manitoba's Choice

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