Mainstreet - Federal Debate - BC Only

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,719 British Columbia residents who reported watching or listening to the Macleans Debate by Smart IVR on August

6th, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones. Maximum Margin of error: +/- 2.36%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed

by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

TRUDEAU NARROWLY WINS DEBATE, BRITISH COLUMBIANS SAY

August 8, 2015 (Toronto, ON) - A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds British Columbians who watched the leaders debate impressed by Justin Trudeau. 26% of British Columbians who watched the debate say Trudeau did the better job. Tom Mulcair was a close second at 23%, with Elizabeth May right behind at 22%. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.36%, 19/20.

The poll surveyed British Columbians immediately following the Macleans election debate. Numerous studies have shown that media coverage of an election debate influences perceptions of the debate itself. The debate was broadcast at 8 PM EST which placed constraints on the area Mainstreet could survey.

Mr. Trudeau had a solid debate performance after going into the night with low expectations, said Quito Maggi, president of Mainstreet. It is a much needed debate win for the Liberal Leader though Mr. Mulcair also did very well and placed a close second. The NDP has been performing very well in BC so Mr. Trudeaus numbers come as a surprise.

There was no knockout punch Thursday night but strong performances from all leaders though Mr. Trudeau was more aggressive and animated. Leaders are measured against expectations which may be why both Mr. Trudeau and Ms. May both scored so well. Ms. May made a persuasive case for being invited back to future debates; she was concise, on message and thoughtful.

Tom Mulcair leads among other measures, 34% say he would make the better Prime Minister compared to 27% for Justin Trudeau and 21% for Stephen Harper. 37% of respondents (debate watchers) said they would vote for Mr. Mulcair if the election were held today and that they think the NDP will win the election.

What kind of impact the debate has going forward remains to be seen. BC is shaping up to be a battleground but election day is still weeks and weeks away, finished Maggi.

Regional Margins of Error: Vancouver Island +/- 4.33%, 19/20; Greater Vancouver +/- 3.83%, 19/20, Rest of British Columbia +/- 4.17%, 19/20.

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Available for phone interview: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

ABOUT MAINSTREETMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's debate? [DEBATE WATCHERS ONLY]

STEPHEN HARPERTOM MULCAIRJUSTIN TRUDEAUELIZABETH MAYUNSURESAMPLE

AGE & GENDER BREAKDOWN18-3415%23%21%32%8%124

35-4917%27%33%13%9%278

50-6423%19%28%21%10%512

65+26%21%21%22%10%805

Female18%23%26%23%10%899

Male22%22%26%22%8%820


Van. Island 17%18%23%28%13%512

Greater Van.19%25%26%24%7%654

Rest of BC.25%20%28%16%11%553

BY REGION

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20%

23%

26%

22%

9%

And who do you think would make the better prime minister? [DEBATE WATCHERS ONLY]

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Van Island.15%35%20%17%13%512

Greater Van.20%36%30%5%9%654

Rest of BC.27%31%25%8%9%553

BY REGION

21%

34%

27%

8%

9%

And who do you think will win the federal election on October 19th?[DEBATE WATCHERS ONLY]


Van Island. 21%39%20%5%14%512

Greater Van.26%40%26%0%8%654

Rest of BC.35%30%22%3%11%553

BY REGION

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28%

37%

24%

2%

9%

And if you were to vote today, which party would you support? [DEBATE WATCHERS ONLY]


AGE & GENDER BREAKDOWN18-3418%49%25%5%3%124

35-4921%42%28%2%7%278

50-6423%30%28%7%12%512

65+31%26%23%7%13%805

Female21%37%27%7%8%899

Male24%38%25%4%9%820

Van. Island 16%30%24%14%16%512

Greater Van.23%42%28%2%5%654

Rest of BC.26%32%23%7%12%553

BY REGION

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23%

37%

26%

5%

8%

23%37%26%5%8%

CONSERVATIVENDP

LIBERALGREEN

UNDECIDED

PROVINCE-WIDE

SCRIPT

Respondents were asked if they watched the Macleans DebateDid you watch or listen to tonights Federal Election Debate?

Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's debate?

Stephen Harper of the Conservative PartyTom Mulcair of the NDP

Justin Trudeau of the Liberal PartyElizabeth May of the Green Party

Unsure

And who do you think would make the better prime minister?



Unsure

And who do you think will win the federal election on October 19th?



Unsure

And if you were to vote today, which party would you support?

The Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperThe NDP led by Tom Mulcair

The Liberals led by Justin TrudeauThe Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

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2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.

Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of Novembers Toronto mayoral election.

Mainstreet - Federal Debate - BC Only

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