Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
-
Upload
ali-zidane-el-qutaany -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
1/46
Using of GIS and RS Tools in Monitoring Climate
Change Impact on the Delta Coastal Zone
Mahmoud H Ahmed, Prof.Head Marine Sciences Department, NARSS
Monit
oring of Climate Change Risk Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Groundwater
and Agriculture in the Nile Delta
December 26, 2011, CLAC
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected] -
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
2/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
3/46
Why Egypt has to be involved?
The impact of Climate Change in Egypt is predicted to be severe,such as increasing drought, sea level rise and more frequent andsevere storms.
* Source vulnerability looks at access to fossil fuels and renewable energy, and the potential size of employment
and income shocks following the introduction of some form of carbon tax.Impact vulnerability or proneness toclimate-related hazards and sea-level riseor. Source:Country Stake in Climate Change Negotiations,The World Bank 2007
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
4/46
Objectives I
to improve understanding of how global change, especially climate
change in its interaction with other drivers (land-use change, nutrient
loading, acid deposition, toxic pollution) has changed, is changing and will
change the structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems;
to encapsulate this understanding in the form of predictive, testablemodels;
to identify key taxa, structures or processes (indicators of aquatic
ecosystem health) that clearly indicate impending or realised globalchange through their loss, occurrence or behaviour;
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
5/46
Objectives II
to identify better approaches for the re-naturalisation of ecosystems andhabitats in the context of global change that will lead to the successful
fulfilment of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in achieving good
ecological status in coastal water habitats;
to provide guidance, in the form of useable models, decision support
systems and other appropriate tools to respond to the interactions
between climate and other changes, in the best interests of conservation
of the goods and services provided to the community by its coastal water
systems;
to communicate this information and understanding to users,
stakeholders and the wider public.
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
6/46
Aims and project structure
how will (Egyptian) freshwater
ecosystems respond to futureclimate change directly and
indirectly, through interactions
with hydro-mophodynamics,
eutrophication, acidification and
toxic substances?
how can delta coastal watersystems thereby be better
managed, e.g. with respect to the
Egyptian CZM guidelines?
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
7/46
STDCC
Beach erosion/accretion
Sediment transport
Human activities
Seasonal changes of physical processes
Drainage systems & Water table
MTDCC
Shoreline changes
Lagoon r\eclamation
Siltation
Dunes movementsCoastal protection
Coastal water quality
Building (resevoir/ harbours/ etc.)
LTDCC
Climate variability
Lagoons shirinking
Pollution
Coastal ecology
Sedimentation problem
Beaches / shoreline disappearing
Population at risk
Eutrophication change
Coastal
Cells
Day/
Month
Decade
Year
Time
Scales
Century
VLTDCC
Delta morphodynamic change
Sea Level Rise Impact
Reshaping the dunes
Land (wet/dry) at loss
Population at loss
New natural resources
(funa & flora)
STDCC Short-term Delta Coastal Change
MTDCC Medium-term Delta Coastal Change
LTDCC Long-term Delta Coastal Change
VLTDCC Very Long-term Delta Coastal Change
LagoonsInletsLow land
Space Scale
Time/Space Scale of morphological and ecological coastal changes over the Nile delta.
Nile Delta
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
8/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
9/46
Research Priorities
The future of coastal water ecosystems in Egypt is highly uncertain. An intensified
research effort is required:
(i) models need improving, especially to incorporate ecological processes adequately;
(ii) high quality, long-term monitoring programmes need to be maintained and extended
both to test models and to improve understanding of the key processes that control
system responses to climate change; and
(iii) key data-sets need to be archived and made available for analysis on a Egyptian
scale to assess continually the changing state of coastal water ecosystems in time
and space.
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
10/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
11/46
In addition to these generic requirements, there is more specifically a need to:
Develop adaptive strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on the ecological
status and biodiversity of Egyptian coastal water ecosystems at the catchment scale
Understand the migration, remobilisation, redeposition, eco-physiological and food-chain
impact of toxic substances (especially Hg and POPs) in remote regions of Egypt (and the
regional countries) in the face of climate change
Understand and model the generation, fate and impact of nitrogen and dissolved organic
carbon in Arab countries coastal water ecosystems as a result of changes in land-
use/management, climate change and acid deposition
Assess the impact of future climate change on the ecosystem goods and services
provided by coastal water ecosystems
Understand the impact of future climate change on the supply and management of water
needed to sustain aquatic ecosystems in dry areas, especially the south Mediterranean
region.
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
12/46
Using Satellite Image 2010
forLand use map of Nile delta
Coastal Governorates
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
13/46MODIS simulated true-color image, 6 January
0.01 0.1 1. 10. 64.0.01 0.1 1. 10. 64.
Chl [mg m-3]
SeaWiFS-derived Chl,6 January 2003
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
14/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
15/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
16/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
17/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
18/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
19/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
20/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
21/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
22/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
23/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
24/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
25/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
26/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
27/46
Climate Change Impact
on Nile delta CoastalGovernorates
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
28/46
Regional Model of North Africa
And Mediterranean Sea
Regional Model of Nile Basin
Weather Modeling Activities
at NARSS
NARSS Modeling-Simulation and Visualization Lab
Regional Model of Africa
NWM of the Temperature Inversion
Over Cairo
High Performance Computing Activities
Use of Satellite Data In NWP at NARSS
Modeling of Egypt
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Modeling_Of_MedSea.ppt -
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
29/46
NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products
Normalized Difference
Vegetation Index (NDVI)
calculated from channels 1 (VIS)
and 5 (NIR) radiance using the
following formula:
NDVI= channel 5 / channel 4
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
30/46
Heat and moisture fluxes
The southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea is
essentially arid with precipitation rate of average
value of 100 mm/year.
On the other hand, highly positive radiation balance
is observed (estimated as 70,000 cal/cm
2
/year). A relatively high water temperature and high
evaporation which exceeds 1200 mm/year.
The air temperature varies from a minimum around
10o C in winter to a maximum of about 31oC insummer.
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
31/46
NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products
Land surface temperature (LST)calculated from channels 4 and 5
(Thermal infra red) brightness
temperature using the following
formula:
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
32/46
NOAA AVHRR Data Post Products
19.000000
19.000000
24.000000
24.000000
29.000000
29.000000
34.000000
34.000000
39.000000
39.000000 1
7.0
00000
22
.000000
22
.000000
27.0
00000
27.0
00000
32
.000000
32
.000000
37.
000000
37.
000000
42
.000000
MCSST= B1 (T11) + B2(T11-T12) +
B3(T11-T12)(Secq -1) - B4
Sea surface temperature (LST)
calculated from channels 4 and 5(Thermal infra red) brightness
temperature using the following
formula:
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
33/46
Regional Model of Egypt
Regional Model of North Africa and
Mediterranean Sea
Weather Modeling Activities
at NARSS
NARSS Modeling-Simulation and Visualization Lab
Regional Model of Nile Basin
Regional Model of Africa
NWM of the Temperature Inversion
Over Cairo
High Performance Computing Activities
Use of Satellite Data In NWP at NARSS
Toshkan
Model
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Toshka_Presentation.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Toshka_Presentation.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Modeling_Of_Egypt.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Sainai.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Delta_Presentation.ppthttp://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_5/Toshka_Presentation.ppt -
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
34/46
Grid : 804x384x32 10Km
Grid Pts : 9.8 M Cell
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
35/46
Grid : 420x540x32 10Km
Grid Pts : 8.6 M Cell
T t Di t ib ti
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
36/46
Temperature Distribution
V l it Fi ld t 10 El ti
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
37/46
Velocity Field at 10m Elevation
Velocit Vector At Elevation 2.7Km
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
38/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
39/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
40/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
41/46
Coast and Breakwaters
Coastline close to Den Haag700m*700m
0m-24m pseudo-coloured
Coastline close to Den Haag
700m*700m
0m-10m pseudo-coloured.
enhanced breakwaters.
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
42/46
Conclusions
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
43/46
Conclusions
The techniques and methodologies for vulnerability assessment of Egypt'scoastal zones are reasonably well identified ( e.g. IPCC methodology based onremote sensing and GIS ).
The coastal zone of Egypt is seriously vulnerable to the effects of sea level riseand changes in weather patterns from both the physical and the socio-economic points of view .
Large areas of the governorates of Alexandria, Behaira, Kafr El-Shiekh, PortSaid, Damietta and Suez, are particularly vulnerable to sea level rise.
The coastal zones as a whole are also particularly vulnerable to changes inprecipitation, excessive frequency of storm surges and changes in the heatpattern through the impacts of floods .
The impacts of accelerated sea level rise (ASLR) through direct inundation, salt
water intrusion, deterioration of ecological systems and associated socio-economic consequences, have been addressed .
Impacts resulting from changes in the precipitation pattern, shortages of freshwater resources, loss of already scarce vegetation cover, increaseddesertification and associated socio-economic impacts, have yet to be studied
in depth .
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
44/46
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
45/46
Mediterranean Sea
WESTERN
DESERT
EASTERN
DESERT
OIL FIELDS
GAS FIELDS
EGYPTS OIL & GAS FIELDS
SINAI
SETTIHAPY
EL TEMSAHWAKAR&KERSH
PORT FOUAD
TAO
THEKAHKAMOSE
MANGO
SETH
QANTARRAE. DELTA
KHILALA
SIMIANSAFFRON
SCARABROSETTA N. BALTIM
BALTIM
ABU MADIEL WASTANI
NW. QARA
W. ABU MADI
DISUQ
N. ABU QIR
W. ABU QIRABU QIR
KANAYES
RAS KANAYES
TAREK
HOURS
N. ALAMEIN
ALAMEINE. RAZZAK
AGHAR
RAZZAK
YADMA
OBAYIEDEMRY
FALAK
TUTW. TUT
UM BARKA
Salam
S. UMBARKA KHALDA
HAYAT
DORR
AMAN
M. NEMELEIHA
LOUTS
M. SE
KARNA
BARDYZAHRA
YASSERSAFIR
S. DABAA
SITRA 1&3
SITRA 5
BED-2
BED-3
BED-15 NE. ABU GHARADIG
ABU GHARADIG
N. ABU GHARADIG
WD-33
WD-33/1
GPCABU SENNAN
BED-1
BED-4 WD-19
QARUN
W. QARUN
BENI SUEF
DARAG
SUDR
MATARMA
ASL
WARDA
RAHMI
AMER
BAKR
W. GHARIB
RAS GHARIB
EL AYUN
UM EL YUSRKAREEM
KHEIRSHUKHEIR
GS 365-373-327 AMALSIDKIE. ZEIT
GAZWARINAZEIT BAY
RAS EL ESHRAS EL BAHAR
GEMSAGEMSA-SE
GEISUM
E. MALLAHA
RABEH
WADI SAHL
HURGHADA
FELEFEL
HAREED
TAWILA
ASHRAFI
BAHAR-NE
HILAL
SHOAB ALIGH 376
GARA M.WALI YOUNS
NESSIEM
MORGANBADRIRAMADAN
JULY
GS-300BELAYIM L.
BELAYIM M.FEIRAN
SIDRI
ABU RUDEISOCTOBER
RAS
BADRAN
N. OCTOBER
CAIRO
ISMAILIA
TANTA
ALEX.
MATRUH.
EL HAMRA.
BURG EL ARAB
N. BAHARIA
QASR
SIDI RAHMAN
DARFEEL
SAQARRA
EDFU
DENISE
TAMAD TAMAY/TORBAY
EL HAMDBED-11
kalabsha Amoun
Bokis
-
8/13/2019 Mahmoud Ahmed Hussein_Climate Lab26122011
46/46
Project Example 2:
Wind Program in Gulf of Suez Area
Proposed Area
Kharga
Proposed Area
east Nile
Proposed Area
west Nile
Proposed Area
at Gulf of Suez