Macroprudential indicators of the financial sector 2015-06

10
1 Macroprudential indicators of the financial sector June 2015 Macroeconomic risk indicators ............................................................................................3 1 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in selected economies .......................3 2 Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in selected economies .................................3 3 Consumer confidence indicators in the United States .......................................................3 4 Economic sentiment indicators in the euro area ................................................................3 5 Unemployment rates in selected economies .....................................................................3 6 Consumer price inflation in selected economies ...............................................................3 7 Industrial production indices in selected economies .........................................................4 8 Retail sales indices in selected economies ........................................................................4 9 General government balances of EU countries in 2014 ....................................................4 10 Gross government debt of EU countries in the first quarter of 2015................................4 Financial market risk indicators ..........................................................................................4 11 Price commodity indices ................................................................................................4 12 Exchange rate indices ....................................................................................................4 13 Equity indices ................................................................................................................5 14 Share price indices of the parent banks of the 5 largest domestic banks ..........................5 15 Yield curve slopes in selected economies .......................................................................5 16 Volatility of equity indices .............................................................................................5 17 CDS spread indices ........................................................................................................5 18 CDSs of the parent banks of the largest Slovak banks ....................................................5 19 3-month rates and the OIS spread...................................................................................6 20 Inflation-linked swap prices ...........................................................................................6 21 Credit spreads on 5-year government bonds issued by countries with higher risk ...........6 22 Credit spreads on 5-year government bonds issued by selected central European countries and Germany .......................................................................................................6 Corporate credit risk indicators ..........................................................................................6 23 Export and the business environment .............................................................................6 24 Export and corporate sales .............................................................................................6 25 Sales in selected sectors compared with their level for the period 06/2007 to 06/2008 ....7 26 Corporate loans and sales ...............................................................................................7 27 Interest rate spreads on new loans to enterprises.............................................................7

Transcript of Macroprudential indicators of the financial sector 2015-06

1

Macroprudential indicators of the financial sector

June 2015

Macroeconomic risk indicators ............................................................................................3

1 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in selected economies .......................3

2 Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in selected economies .................................3

3 Consumer confidence indicators in the United States .......................................................3

4 Economic sentiment indicators in the euro area ................................................................3

5 Unemployment rates in selected economies .....................................................................3

6 Consumer price inflation in selected economies ...............................................................3

7 Industrial production indices in selected economies .........................................................4

8 Retail sales indices in selected economies ........................................................................4

9 General government balances of EU countries in 2014 ....................................................4

10 Gross government debt of EU countries in the first quarter of 2015 ................................4

Financial market risk indicators ..........................................................................................4

11 Price commodity indices ................................................................................................4

12 Exchange rate indices ....................................................................................................4

13 Equity indices ................................................................................................................5

14 Share price indices of the parent banks of the 5 largest domestic banks ..........................5

15 Yield curve slopes in selected economies .......................................................................5

16 Volatility of equity indices .............................................................................................5

17 CDS spread indices ........................................................................................................5

18 CDSs of the parent banks of the largest Slovak banks ....................................................5

19 3-month rates and the OIS spread ...................................................................................6

20 Inflation-linked swap prices ...........................................................................................6

21 Credit spreads on 5-year government bonds issued by countries with higher risk ...........6

22 Credit spreads on 5-year government bonds issued by selected central European countries and Germany .......................................................................................................6

Corporate credit risk indicators ..........................................................................................6

23 Export and the business environment .............................................................................6

24 Export and corporate sales .............................................................................................6

25 Sales in selected sectors compared with their level for the period 06/2007 to 06/2008 ....7

26 Corporate loans and sales ...............................................................................................7

27 Interest rate spreads on new loans to enterprises .............................................................7

2

28 Non-performing loans and default rates..........................................................................7

29 Loans at risk ..................................................................................................................7

30 Debt-servicing burden by components ...........................................................................7

31 Commercial real estate: prices (EUR/m2) and vacancy rates in the office segment .........8

32 Commercial real estate: sales of the new apartments in the residential segment ..............8

33 Comparison of corporate balance sheets and sales ..........................................................8

34 Liabilities of non-financial corporations .........................................................................8

Household credit risk indicators ..........................................................................................8

35 Household indebtedness in Slovakia and in selected countries .......................................8

36 Changes in household financial assets ............................................................................8

37 Number of unemployed by income category ..................................................................9

38 Index of employment in selected sectors ........................................................................9

39 Expected employment in selected sectors .......................................................................9

40 Index of real wages in selected sectors ...........................................................................9

41 The consumer confidence index and its components ......................................................9

42 Non-performing household loans ...................................................................................9

43 Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio ........................................................................................... 10

44 Housing affordability index ......................................................................................... 10

Market risk and liquidity risk indicators ......... ................................................................. 10

45 Value at Risk for investments in different types of financial instruments ...................... 10

46 Loan-to-deposit ratio .................................................................................................... 10

47 Liquid asset ratio.......................................................................................................... 10

General notes:

The formulation '31 December 2014 = 1' in the index means that the given index was set in such

a way that its value as at that date (31 December 2014) was 1.

3

Macroeconomic risk indicators

1 Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in selected economies

2 Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in selected economies

Source: Bloomberg. Note: PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing or service sector: an index value of more than 50 represents expansion, while a value of below 50 represents contraction.

Source: Bloomberg. Note: PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing or service sector: an index value of more than 50 represents expansion, while a value of below 50 represents contraction. 3 Consumer confidence indicators in the

United States 4 Economic sentiment indicators in the euro area

Source: Bloomberg. Note: The chart refers to US consumer confidence indices produced by two different institutions.

Source: Bloomberg. Notes: ESI is the Economic Sentiment Indicator compiled by the European Commission. ZEW represents the economic sentiment indicator compiled by a private company ZEW (Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung).

5 Unemployment rates in selected economies 6 Consumer price inflation in selected economies

Source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Seasonally adjusted.

Source: Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Note: Year-on-year percentage changes in the consumer price indices.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

XII.0

6

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Euro area United States China

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

XII.0

6

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Euro area United States

20

40

60

80

100

120

XII.0

6

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Conference Board Consumer Confidence IndexUniversity of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

-90

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

60

70

80

90

100

110

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

ESI ZEW (right-hand scale)

3%

5%

7%

9%

11%

13%

15%

XII.0

6

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Euro area United States Slovakia

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Euro area United States Slovakia

4

7 Industrial production indices in selected economies

8 Retail sales indices in selected economies

Source: Eurostat, US Federal Reserve. Notes: Rebalanced (average: 2007 = 100). Seasonally adjusted.

Source: Eurostat, US Department of Commerce. Notes: Rebalanced (average 2007 = 100). Seasonally adjusted.

9 General government balances of EU countries in 2014

10 Gross government debt of EU countries in the first quarter of 2015

Source: Eurostat. Note: Balance is expressed as a percentage of GDP.

Source: Eurostat. Note: Gross government debt is expressed as a percentage of GDP.

Financial market risk indicators

11 Price commodity indices (31.12.2014 = 1) 12 Exchange rate indices (31.12.2014 = 1)

Source: Bloomberg, NBS.

Source: Bloomberg, NBS.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140XI

I.06

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Euro area United States Slovakia Germany

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

XII.0

6

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Euro area United States Slovakia Germany

-12%

-9%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

Cyp

rus

Spai

nU

KC

roat

iaSl

oven

iaPo

rtuga

lIre

land

Fran

ceG

reec

ePo

land

Belg

ium

Finl

and

Italy

Slov

akia

Bulg

aria

Hun

gary

Euro

are

aAu

stria

Net

herla

nds

Mal

taC

zech

Rep

ublic

Swed

enR

oman

iaLa

tvia

Lith

uani

aEs

toni

aLu

xem

bour

gG

erm

any

Den

mar

k

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

180%

Gre

ece

Italy

Portu

gal

Belg

ium

Irela

ndC

ypru

sSp

ain

Fran

ceEu

ro a

rea

GB

Cro

atia

Aust

riaSl

oven

iaH

unga

ryG

erm

any

Mal

taN

ethe

rland

sFi

nlan

dSl

ovak

iaPo

land

Den

mar

kSw

eden

Cze

ch R

epub

licR

oman

iaLi

thua

nia

Latv

iaBu

lgar

iaLu

xem

bour

gEs

toni

a

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

1.8

Brent oil price index

Gold price index

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4 USD / EUR CZK / EUR

HUF / EUR PLN / EUR

5

13 Equity indices (31.12.2014 = 1) 14 Share price indices of the parent banks of the 5 largest domestic banks (31.12.2014 = 1)

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Source: Bloomberg, NBS.

15 Yield curve slopes in selected economies (p. p.)

16 Volatility of equity indices

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Notes: The yield curve slope is expressed as the difference between the yield to maturity on 10-year and 3-month government bonds. p. p. – percentage points.

Source: Bloomberg.

17 CDS spread indices (b. p.)

18 CDSs of the parent banks of the largest Slovak banks (b. p.)

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Note: b. p. – basis points.

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Note: b. p. – basis points.

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5 EUROSTOXXNIKKEIS&P 500

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5 UniCredit Bank KBCErste Bank RZBIntesa

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Germany

United States 0

20

40

60

80

100

VIX

VSTOXX

0

100

200

300

400iTraxx Europe 5Y

iTraxx Senior Financials 5Y

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700 Max - min CDS spreads of parent banks

iTraxx Senior Financials 5Y

6

19 3-month rates and the OIS spread (%, p. p.)

20 Inflation-linked swap prices (p. p.)

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Note: p. p. – percentage points.

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Notes: Inflation-linked swaps are swap transactions in which one counterparty pays a fixed rate (a swap price) and the other pays a rate corresponding to the return on a selected price index. The inflation-linked swap price is calculated on a non-coupon basis. p. p. – percentage points.

21 Credit spreads on 5-year government bonds issued by countries with higher risk (p. p.)

22 Credit spreads on 5-year government bonds issued by selected central European countries and Germany (p. p.)

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Notes: The vertical scales shows differences between yields on 5-year bonds issued by the different countries and 5-year OIS rates, representing a 5-year interest rate on high-rated bonds. p. p. – percentage points.

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Notes: The Chart shows percentage differences between yields on 5-year government bonds denominated in the domestic currencies of the countries and 5-year swap rates for the respective currencies. p. p. – percentage points.

Corporate credit risk indicators

23 Export and the business environment

24 Export and corporate sales

Source: NBS, OECD, Statistics Office of the SR. Source: Ministry of Economy of the SR, NBS, OECD, Statistical Office of the SR.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

OIS Spread

3-month EURIBOR

3-month OIS

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

5-year swaps linked to euro area inflation5-year swaps linked to US inflation1-year swaps linked to euro area inflation1-year swaps linked to US inflation

0

20

40

60

0

5

10

15

20

25IrelandItalySpainPortugalGreece (right-hand scale)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4 SlovakiaCzech RepublicPolandGermany

-45%

-30%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

Business sentiment - Slovakia (left-hand scale)Business sentiment - main trading partners (left-hand scale)Economic Sentiment Indicator (left-hand scale)Export - annual rate of change (right-hand scale)

-45%

-30%

-15%

0%

15%

30%

45%

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

Export - annual rate of changeSales in total - annual rate of changeSales weighted by bank exposures - annual rate of change

7

25 Sales in selected sectors compared with their level for the period 06/2007 to 06/2008

26 Corporate loans and sales

Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR.

27 Interest rate spreads on new loans to enterprises

28 Non-performing loans and default rates

Source: NBS, European Banking Federation. Note: The spread is defined as the difference between the monthly EURIBOR rate and the average rate on new loans in the respective category.

Source: NBS. Notes: Data on the right-hand scale are in EUR mil. Default rates refer to the number/volume of loans re-categorised as defaulted to the number/volume of non-defaulted loans at the beginning of the period under review.

29 Loans at risk 30 Debt-servicing burden by components

Source: NBS. Note: The chart shows the interquartile range.

Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR. Note: Data on the right-hand scale are in EUR mil.

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%XI

I.08

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

Corporate sector in total IndustryConstruction Trade and motor vehicle salesHotels and restaurants

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Total sales - annual rate of change

Year-on-year growth in corporate loans by domestic banks

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

EURIBOR 1MLoans of up to and including €0.25 millionLoans of more than €0.25 million, up to and including €1 millionLoans of more than €1 million

-180

-120

-60

0

60

120

180

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

XII.0

6

VI.0

7

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Change in the amount of NPL - m/m (right-hand scale)Default rates (amount of loans)Default rates (number of loans)Ratio of non-performing loans

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

3-11

6-11

9-11

12-1

1

3-12

6-12

9-12

12-1

2

3-13

6-13

9-13

12-1

3

3-14

6-14

9-14

12-1

4

3-15

Average Median

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

Interest rate (left-hand scale)Loans (left-hand scale)Sales (left-hand scale)debt-service burden - domestic loans - indexdebt-service burden at 2008 rates - domestic loansdebt burden-service - total loans - indexdebt-service burden at 2008 rates - total loans

8

31 Commercial real estate: prices (EUR/m2) and vacancy rates in the office segment

32 Commercial real estate: sales of the new apartments in the residential segment

Source: CBRE, NBS. Note: The chart plots prices and vacancy rates in Bratislava.

Source: Lexxus, NBS.

33 Comparison of corporate balance sheets and sales

34 Liabilities of non-financial corporations

Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR. Source: NBS.

Household credit risk indicators

35 Household indebtedness in Slovakia and in selected countries

36 Changes in household financial assets

Source: Eurostat. Notes: The ratio of total debt of households to disposable income. Data are available to 2013 only.

Source: NBS. Notes: Data refer to quarter-on-quarter changes. Owing to methodology changes, no historical data are available as yet. Data on the left-hand scale are in EUR million.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

5

10

15

203.

096.

099.

0912

.09

3.10

6.10

9.10

12.1

03.

116.

119.

1112

.11

3.12

6.12

9.12

12.1

23.

136.

139.

1312

.13

3.14

6.14

9.14

12.1

43.

15

Price per m2 / month - inner centrePrice per m2 / month - outer centrePrice per m2 / month - outside centreOffice vacancy rate - inner centre (right-hand scale)Office vacancy rate - outer centre (right-hand scale)Office vacancy rate - outside centre (right-hand scale)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-600

-300

0

300

600

900

1 200

3.09

9.09

3.10

9.10

3.11

9.11

3.12

9.12

3.13

9.13

3.14

9.14

3.15

Number of apartments where sales fell through (left-hand scale)Number of apartments sold in a given quarter (left-hand scale)Residential segment: Net new apartment sales (left-hand scale)Share of projects with positive net apartment sales (right-hand scale)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

12.0

7

6.08

12.0

8

6.09

12.0

9

6.10

12.1

0

6.11

12.1

1

6.12

12.1

2

6.13

12.1

3

6.14

12.1

4

Ratio of domestic bank loans (excl. loans for commercial property) to annual salesRatio of domestic bank loans to annual salesRatio of external funding to annual sales

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

12.0

3

12.0

4

12.0

5

12.0

6

12.0

7

12.0

8

12.0

9

12.1

0

12.1

1

12.1

2

12.1

3

12.1

4

External funding as a share of total corporate liabilitiesFunds from the rest of the world sector as a share of corporate liabilities

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

150%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Belgium Czech Republic GermanySpain Hungary AustriaPoland Slovakia

0%

15%

30%

45%

60%

75%

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

3.13 6.13 9.13 12.13 3.14 6.14 9.14 12.14 3.15

Curenncy and depositsShares and other equityInsurance, pension and standardised guarantee systemsRatio of financial liabilites to financial assets (right-hand scale)Currency and deposits as a share of financial assets (right-hand scale)

9

37 Number of unemployed by income category

38 Index of employment in selected sectors

Source: Central Office of Labour, Social Affairs and Family of the SR. Notes: Left-hand and right-hand scales: Numbers of job seekers are in thousands. Household income categories – categorisation based on the KZAM employment classification and KZAM income data; it consists of three categories: higher-income category (income of over €800 per month) – legislators, senior officials and managers, scientists, professionals, technicians, health professionals, and teaching professionals; middle-income category (income between €600 and €800 per month) – office workers, craft and skilled workers, processors, and plant and machinery operators; lower-income category (income of up to €600) – service and retail workers, agricultural and forestry workers, auxiliary and unskilled workers.

Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Note: Year-on-year changes.

39 Expected employment in selected sectors 40 Index of real wages in selected sectors

Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Notes: Index data.

Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Note: HICP - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, change on the same period of the previous year.

41 The consumer confidence index and its components

42 Non-performing household loans

Source: Statistical Office of the SR. Source: NBS.

Note: Left-hand scale: ratio of non-performing household loans to total household loans. Data on the right-hand scale are in EUR mil.

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12VI

.07

VI.0

8

VI.0

9

VI.1

0

VI.1

1

VI.1

2

VI.1

3

VI.1

4

VI.1

5

VI.0

8

VI.0

9

VI.1

0

VI.1

1

VI.1

2

VI.1

3

VI.1

4

VI.1

5

Higher-income category Medium-income categoryLower-income category

Number of job seekersInflow of job seekers

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Manufacturing ConstructionWholesale Retail tradeAccomodation Transportation and storage

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Services Industry Trade Construction

98

100

102

104

106

85

90

95

100

105

110XI

I.08

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

HICP (righ-hand scale)IndustryConstructionWholesale trade except for motor vehiclesRetail trade except for motor vehicles

-60

-30

0

30

60

90

XII.0

7

VI.0

8

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Consumer confidence indexExpected financial situation of householdsExpected economic situation in SlovakiaExpected unemploymentExpected household savings

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

XII.0

8

VI.0

9

XII.0

9

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Upper and lower quartiles of the non-performing loan (NPL) ratioWeighted average of the NPL ratioMonth-on-month changes in the amount of NPLs (right-hand scale)

10

43 Loan-to-value (LTV) ratio 44 Housing affordability index

Source: NBS. Note: Loan-to-value ratio is the loan value divided by the value of the loan collateral.

Source: NBS, Statistical Office of the SR. Notes: Housing affordability index is an index representing the ratio of disposable income to loan instalments. The calculation of disposable income takes into account the average wage and average expenditure of households; the calculation of the instalment amount takes into account the average apartment price, average interest rate, average maturity, and a constant LTV ratio (75%). The calculation methodology for the housing affordability index is set out in the following paper: Rychtárik, Š., Krčmár, M. (2011), “Vývoj na trhu úverov na bývanie a jeho interpretácia” (Developments in the housing loan market and their interpretation), Nehnuteľnosti a bývanie 2010 (Real Estate and Housing), Vol. No 2, Bratislava, 2010.

Market risk and liquidity risk indicators

45 Value at Risk for investments in different types of financial instruments

Source: Bloomberg, NBS. Notes: The data represent the loss (as a percentage of the given investment) that should not be exceeded over a period of 10 days at a confidence level of 99%. This loss was determined on the basis of a risk factor volatility calculation, using exponentially weighted moving averages.

46 Loan-to-deposit ratio 47 Liquid asset ratio

Source: NBS. Note: ARDAL – Debt and Liquidity Management Agency.

Source: NBS.

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%XI

I.09

VI.1

0

XII.1

0

VI.1

1

XII.1

1

VI.1

2

XII.1

2

VI.1

3

XII.1

3

VI.1

4

XII.1

4

VI.1

5

Interquartile range Banks in total Large banks

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Housing affordability index (constant LTV)Housing affordability index (variable LTV)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%Open position in USD

5-year euro-denominated bonds

Equity investments (EUROSTOXXindex)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

XII.0

3

XII.0

4

XII.0

5

XII.0

6

XII.0

7

XII.0

8

XII.0

9

XII.1

0

XII.1

1

XII.1

2

XII.1

3

XII.1

4

Loan-to-deposit ratio for households including mortgage bondsLoan-to-deposit ratio (including ARDAL deposits and mortgage bonds issued)Loan-to-deposit ratio (excluding ARDAL deposits and mortgage bonds issued)Loan-to-deposit ratio (including ARDAL deposits and excluding mortgage bonds issued)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

XII.0

9III

.10

VI.1

0IX

.10

XII.1

0III

.11

VI.1

1IX

.11

XII.1

1III

.12

VI.1

2IX

.12

XII.1

2III

.13

VI.1

3IX

.13

XII.1

3III

.14

VI.1

4IX

.14

XII.1

4III

.15

VI.1

5

Banking sector - medianRetail banks - median