Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

7/22/2019 Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

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Golf and Analytics:

A Brief History

- Data was hard to come by

- You had to get it yourself- Collected Data the Yogi Berra Way

- Golf itself was somewhat anti-analytical

- Jack Reddy 1963 US Open

- Cochran and Stobbs- Clyne Soley

- Fran Schied

- 1974 US Open Sports Illustrated


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95 Scorer

0 Greens, 37 Putts

89 Scorer

3 Greens, 35 Putts

79 Scorer

8 Greens, 32 Putts 69 Scorer

13 Greens, 29 putts

Summary Stats by Ability Level


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ShotLink System

Every Shot/Every Player/Every PGA

Controlled Tournament

Nearly 1.5 million shots per year

ShotLink is Golf Statistical Heaven!

ShotLink


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Dustin Johnson


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Justin Rose


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Phil Mickelson

29.4% 3

12.0%

68.1% 4

G 27.8%

75.5% 3.73 2.5% 5

40.8% 1.0%

0.0% 6

0.0%

F 0.0% 7

5 4.1 % 3 .8 5 0.0%

76.0% 4

G 9.7%

96.2% 4.24 24.0% 5

12.8% 3.1%

0.0% 6

NG 0.0%

24.5% 4.23 0.0% 7

13.3% 0.0%

0 .0 % 2 .0 0

0.0% 100.0% 5

NG G 0.3%

Tee 1.9% 5.00 100.0% 5.00 0.0% 6

3.92 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%1.9% 3 0.0% 7

0.3% 0.0%

0.0% 8

0.0%

0.0% 5

NG 0.0%

0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 4 0.0% 7

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 8

0.0%

30.7% 3

G 7.9%

56.1% 3.72 66.3% 4

25.8% 17.1%

3.0% 5

0.8%

NF 0.0% 6

4 5.9 % 4 .0 1 0.0%

64.5% 4

G 12.5%

96.2% 4.39 32.9% 5

19.4% 6.4%

1.3% 6

NG 0.3%

43.9% 4.37 1.3% 7

20.2% 0.3%

0 .0 % 2 .0 0

0.0% 100.0% 5

NG G 0.3%

1.3% 5.00 100.0% 5.00 0.0% 6

0.3% 0.3% 0.0%

2.5% 3 0.0% 7

0.5% 0.0%

0.0% 5

NG 0.0%

0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 4 0.0% 7

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 8

0.0%

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Tiger Woods

32.2% 3

17.2%

67.8% 4

G 36.1%

76.1% 3.68 0.0% 5

53.3% 0.0%

0.0% 6

0.0%

F 0.0% 7

7 0.0 % 3 .8 4 0.0%

75.8% 4

G 11.0%

86.8% 4.24 24.2% 5

14.5% 3.5%

0.0% 6

NG 0.0%

23.9% 4.34 0.0% 7

16.7% 0.0%

0 .0 % 2 .0 0

0.0% 75.0% 5

NG G 1.3%

Tee 10.5% 5.50 100.0% 5.50 0.0% 6

3.96 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%2.6% 3 25.0% 7

0.4% 0.4%

0.0% 8

0.0%

0.0% 5

NG 0.0%

0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 4 0.0% 7

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 8

0.0%

19.4% 3

G 2.6%

45.6% 3.81 80.6% 4

13.7% 11.0%

0.0% 5

0.0%

NF 0.0% 6

3 0.0 % 4 .2 5 0.0%

39.4% 4

G 5.7%

89.2% 4.64 57.6% 5

14.5% 8.4%

3.0% 6

NG 0.4%

54.4% 4.62 0.0% 7

16.3% 0.0%

0 .0 % 2 .0 0

0.0% 100.0% 5

NG G 1.3%

8.1% 5.00 100.0% 5.00 0.0% 6

1.3% 1.3% 0.0%

2.7% 3 0.0% 7

0.4% 0.0%

0.0% 5

NG 0.0%

0.0% 0.00 0.0% 6

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 4 0.0% 7

0.0% 0.0%

0.0% 8

0.0%

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Phil Averages 3.92 vs. Tigers

3.96If in Fairway, About the Same

Phil 3.85, Tiger 3.84

If Fairway Missed, Phil Has the

AdvantagePhil 4.01, Tiger 4.25


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26.1% 3G 68.8% 4

74.1% 3 7 9 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7

76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5

59.1% 3 8 9 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7

NG 0.0% 525.9% 4 1 8 G 0.0% 6

Te e 0.0% 0.0% 74 4 0.0% 2 NG 0.0% 8

3.6% 4NG 0.0% 5

3.6% 3 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 7

100.0% 4 0.0% 8

A Regular Player Lacks

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26.1% 3G 68.8% 4

74.1% 3 7 9 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7

76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5

70.0% 3 89 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7

Tee NG4 25.9% 4 1 8

If Ben Had Received Tigers Fairway DNA

26.1% 3G 68.8% 4

74.1% 3 79 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7

76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5

59.1% 3 8 9 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7

Tee NG4 4 25.9% 4 18

Original Skill of Ben Curtis

Ben Curtis Inherits Tigers Fairway Accuracy

Tigers Fairway Accuracy

- 0.04 point

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http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=a-jnYm0G5V8F0M&tbnid=Q_FC5DuANQwOmM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://3jack.blogspot.com/2009/04/statistical-analysis-of-tigers-driving.html&ei=V97KUdGjMeSP0QG8uoD4BA&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNG7nmS9_0L2efzF8vCqBu0EhGa-fA&ust=1372335815642468http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=WnYFieWPikQxNM&tbnid=maWZY4tRR5fNAM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/golf/article-2306723/MASTERS-2013-PREVIEW-Tiger-Woods-wake-smell-azaleas-hell-need-driver-win.html&ei=0t3KUaOxJsbG0gGml4HoDQ&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNG7nmS9_0L2efzF8vCqBu0EhGa-fA&ust=1372335815642468


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26.1% 3G 68.8% 4

84.9% 3 7 9 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7

76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5

59.1% 3 8 5 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7

Te e NG4 1 15.1% 4 1 8

0.0% 2

Or Receiving Rory McIlroysGreen Approach DNA

26.1% 3G 68.8% 4

74.1% 3 79 5.1% 50.0% 60.0% 7

76.5% 4F G 23.5% 5

59.1% 3 89 92.7% 4 24 0.0% 60.0% 7

Te e NG4 4 25.9% 4 18

Original Skill of Ben Curtis

Ben Curtis Inherits Rorys F-G Accuracy

Rory's

F-G Accuracy

- 0.03 point
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=kMQ2KYZjU-FybM&tbnid=1Yg9zLPb8sqoVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2009/aug/14/tiger-woods-padraig-harrington&ei=bdzKUciaE6Pu0gHm3ICYDA&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNEnrAYwRKdal-0UTE9dzepKO8e4wg&ust=1372335575030402


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Rory Par 5s 2012

Green 116 (34%) 3 Shots 21 (18%)3.95 4 Shots 80 (69%)

5 Shots 15 (13%)

Fairway 51 (15%) Green 46 (90%) 4 Shots 16 (35%)

4.69 4.65 5 Shots 30 (65%)

Fairway 338 (63%) NG 5 (10%) Green 5 5 Shots 5 (100%)

Average: 4.57 5.00 5.00

Non Fairway 171 (51%) Green 109(64%) 4 Shots 64 (59%)

4.95 4.41 5 Shots 45 (41%)

NG 62(36%) Green 32 (52%) 5 Shots 20 (62.5%)

5.90 5.38 6 Shots 12 (37.5%)

NG 26 (42%) Green 26 (100%) 6 Shots 12 (46%)

6.54 6.54 7 Shots 14 (54%)

4 Shots 4 (6%)

Total 537 Tee 537 Green 16 (8%) 3 Shots 0 (100%)

4.64 4.00 4 Shots 16 (100%)

Fairway 102 (51%) Green 83 (81%) 4 Shots 28 (34%)

4.73 4.66 5 Shots 55 (66%)

Non-Fairway 199 (37%) NG 16 (16%) Green 16 (100%) 5 Shots 10 (62.5%)

Average: 4.77 5.38 5.386 Shots 6 (37.5%)

3 Shots 3 (3%)

Non Fairway 81 (40%) Green 54 (67%) 4 Shots 24 (44%)

4.97 4.56 5 Shots 30 (56%)

NG 24 (30%) Green 16 (67%) 5 Shots 10 (62.5%)

5.92 5.38 6 Shots 6 (37.5%)

NG 8 (33%) Green 0 (0%)

7.00 NG 8 (100%) Green 0 (0%)

NG 8 7 Shots 8 (100%)

3 Shots 3 (4%)


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Conclusion

Statistically evaluate players performance in each situation.

Determine which skillset separates one player from another.

Help players improve their performance.
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=T8iLMHgv4KhdfM&tbnid=RrM7rGUfSspTyM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.andavotravel.com/blog/2011/06/golf-pebble-beach-visit-san-francisco-and-napa-valley/&ei=vN7KUfOaLImA0AGolIGgAQ&bvm=bv.48340889,d.dmQ&psig=AFQjCNGZRYfoNTHxXteUFN9XgZDVv2Ejlw&ust=1372336165576664


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Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference

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Transcript of Lucius Riccio presentation, 2014 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference