Luci2 Urban Simulation Model John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana...

luci2 Urban Simulation Model

John R. OttensmannCenter for Urban Policy and the Environment

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis


What the Model Does Simulates urban growth for Central

Indiana Forecasts employment change by ZIP code

for major industry groups Separately simulates residential and

employment-related development for mile-square grid cells

Allows users to create and compare scenarios reflecting policy choices and assumptions about future development


Central Indiana 2000 Percent Urban


Central Indiana Data Sources

LandSAT satellite images for 1985, 1993, and 2000 Land cover classification by Jeff

Wilson Employment by ZIP code for 1995,

2000 Indiana Department of Workforce

Development (ES-202) data


Estimation of Land Use Reclassification of classified land

cover data Developed set of classifiers based

on… Land cover in vicinity of each pixel Population and housing units from

census Road network


Predictive Equations in the Model (9)

Employment change for four industry groups by ZIP code

Probabilities of residential and employment-related development by grid cell

Densities of residential and employment-related development

Journey to work


Prediction of Development

Prediction of probability of conversion of land to residential and employment-related uses Based on random utility theory Estimated aggregated logit models Dependent variables logits of proportions of

land converted 1993-2000

Prediction of densities of development Estimated using 2000 data


Predictors of Probability of Residential Development

Accessibility to employment and employment change

Availability of water and sewer Distances to interstate interchanges and

other four-lane highways Proportion residential in 3x3

neighborhood and it square (logistic growth trend)

Logit proportion converted to residential in preceding period (persistence)

ISTEP scores for school districts


Accessibility to Employment


How luci2 Simulates Urban Development

Works in 5-year simulation periods Simulation driven by exogenous,

user-specified population growth for entire region

Predicts employment change by industry group for ZIP codes

Predicts employment-related and residential development


Prediction of Employment-Related Development

Predicts employment-related land use per employee by ZIP code

Predicts probability of conversion of land to employment-related uses by grid cell

Allocates employment-related development within each ZIP code to grid cells with highest probabilities


Prediction of Residential Development

Predicts probability of conversion of land to residential use

Predicts population density Adjusts probabilities to

accommodate specified population growth


Use of Scenarios in luci2 Purpose not to produce “best” forecast

but alternative scenarios Scenarios can reflect policy choices,

including restrictions on development on certain lands, utility expansion, densities, urban growth boundaries

Scenarios can reflect alternative assumptions about factors influencing development, including population growth and importance of accessibility to employment


The Current trends Scenario

luci2 starts with the Current trends scenario

Assumes population growth at the rate from 1990-2000

Uses all model parameters as estimated for the period prior to 2000

Assumes no changes to policies from recent period


luci2 Simulation Results Results provided for active and

comparison scenarios Maps show land urban and change and

generalized land uses Tables provide summary results for

region for land use and population Tables provide urban land and

employment and their change by county


Enhanced User Capabilities

Automatic output of more detailed simulation results Capability to add user scenarios

Restrictions on development in specified areas Restrictions on development Minimum or maximum densities Areas to be provided with utility service New transportation alternatives


luci2 as a General-Purpose Urban Simulation Model

Models can be implemented for different areas…

With different datasets… Using regular or irregular simulation

zones (including TAZs)… Using distances or travel times… For models of varying complexity Could implement LUCI and LUCI/T in

luci2


LUCI/T Model Developed for Central Indiana

Suburban Transportation & Mobility Study

Starting point original LUCI model 9-county area surrounding

Indianapolis Uses travel times from travel demand

model to calculate accessibility


Comparison of Baseline and Maximum Change Alternatives

Simulations to 2025, 2040 Baseline: existing and planned

transportation improvements Maximum change: 360º

circumferential limited-access highway in outer part of area (outer belt)

Use of LUCI/T forecast development for 2025 travel demand model


Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Traffic Forecasts


LUCI/T Baseline and Maximum Change Forecast of Urban Change to 2025

Baseline (Minimum Change) Maximum Change


LUCI/T Differences between Baseline and Maximum Change Forecasts

Urban 2025 Baseline0 - 0.10.1 - 0.30.3 - 0.50.5 - 0.70.7 - 1

Difference Baseline and Maximum-0.005 - -0.004-0.004 - -0.002-0.002 - 0.0020.002 - 0.0040.004 - 0.009


Possible Reasons for Small Differences In general, the periphery of significant

urban development does not extend out to outer belt by 2025 (or 2040)

Households will find locations at urban periphery more accessible to employment than locations near outer belt

Major effect on travel times is to reduce times between locations near outer belt, but those have limited employment


luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

Simulates residential and employment-related development for 4,579 TAZs in INDOT travel demand model

Simulates local-service employment growth for TAZs

Uses travel times from travel demand model


Integration of luci2 with INDOT Travel Demand Model

Simulation starts with 2000 travel times from the travel demand model

Simulates employment growth and urban development for 2005

Results used by travel demand model to simulate 2005 travel, travel times

New travel times used by luci2 to simulate growth and development for 2010

Process continues to 2030


luci2 Indiana Statewide Model

Luci2 Urban Simulation Model John R. Ottensmann Center for Urban Policy and the Environment Indiana...

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