LTE: When Worlds Collide

Scott A. Snyder, PhDDecision Strategies International

snyder@thinkdsi.com

(610) 256-0662

Topics

• Defining 4G• How we got here?

– Evolution, Lessons Learned• What will shape the future?

– Drivers and Scenarios• What are the implications for different players?

– Carriers, Devices, Apps, Content, Other• What will be the keys to success?

Defining 4G…• 100 Mbps Mobile/1 Gbps Fixed• Global Roaming with other active Wireless Standards (2G, 3G,

WLAN, etc.)• IP Interoperability with other Wireless and Wireline Networks• End-to-end QoS and AAA Management• Open APIs for Service Creation• Dynamic Spectrum Use• Supports Different Network Topologies (Star, Mesh,

AdHoc/P2P)• Supports Traffic from Humans, Machines, Sensors, and Agents• User-centric Services Model

LTE is only part of 4G

©Scott A. Snyder 2009

Enabling 4G Technologies

• Broadband Networks (LTE, WiMax, etc.)• Software-defined Radio (SDR)• Smart Antennas (Adaptive, MIMO, others)• Mobile AdHoc Networking (MANET)• Wireless Sensor Networks (WSN)• Location-based Services• Network Interoperability (FMC, IP, etc.)• End-to-end QoS• Information Assurance

“Technology giveth and technology taketh away. No business model, art form, or practice has an inherent right to exist: it has to fit in with the social, technological, and market realities of its day.”

– Paul Miller, Web Evangelist

The Danger in Predicting Technology…

Like many emerging technologies, wireless looked unattractive and uneconomical at the outset until consumers understood the true value of mobility.

The Convoluted Path to 4G

RadioTechnology

MicroElectronics

DigitalComms/CDMA

DistributedComputing

UnlicensedBand

CellularAcrhitectures

Globalization

ConsumerBroadband

MultimediaContent

Voice/VideoCompression

AdHocNetworks

Internet/IP

CognitiveRadio

1G Wireless

GPS

SmartAntennas

ArtificialIntelligence

2G Wireless

3G Wireless

WiFi

Standards

Spectrum

4G

SocialNetworks

“Predicting the future of the mobile market is like going to PetSmart and trying to select a goldfish that won’t die in the 20 min it takes you to drive it home and put it in a fish bowl.”

 

– Chris Wilson, Planting in the Mobile Market

©Scott A. Snyder 2009

Many Factors will Shape the 4G Future

4GFuture

Privacy/Security

IP RegimesGeneration Z

Low-endDisruption

Smart Mob

SeamlessMobility

CognitiveDevices

BioConvergence DistributedAuthority

Very SmallObjects

Possible Future Scenarios for 4G

Technology Disruption

Soc

ial T

rust

in N

etw

orks

Low

Hig

h

Incremental Cognitive/Ubiquitous

Today

NatureAligns

KillerBees

What happens to Market Power?

Wireless Operators

Device Vendors

Operating System Vendors

Content/Application Vendors

Internet Portals/Social Nets

Killer Bees(Carrier-centric)

Nature Aligns(User-centric)

“When you piece together these different technological, economic, and social components, the result is an infrastructure that makes certain kinds of human actions possible that were never possible before.”

 

- Howard Rheingold, Smart Mobs

4G = Digital Swarm

Create Your Own Social Network for Anything

Ning

Other Networks(GSM, PSTN, ISDN, etc.)

IP NetworkMobile Switching

Center

Cellular User

CellularBase Station

Subscriber Directory

Mesh WirelessBase Stations

4G

“If you're looking for a role model in a world of

complexity, you could do worse than to imitate a

bee.” – Thomas Seely, Bee Expert

Potential 4G Killer Apps?• Interactive Multi-player gaming• Video Entertainment• Concierge Services• Distributed Decision-Support• Immersive Touring• Interactive education and training• Pervasive Healthcare• Remote Sensing, Monitoring, and Control• Polling and Prediction Markets• Distributed Supply Chain• Personal security• Content Management from multiple devices and sources • Context-aware Retail• Emergency Service Coordination• Organization/People Tracking

Retail/Financial

Entertainment/

Media

Healthcare

Security/Defense

Transportation

SmartHome

BioSensorsBiometrics

PortableHealth Records

Remote Diagnostics

HealthMonitoring

Location-basedAdvertising

PervasiveRetail

Remote HealthcarePersonal DiagnosticsTelemedicinePatient Compliance

Energy/Environment

Demand ManagementGrid MonitoringBuilding ControlGeneration Monitoring

4GWireless

eWallet

FitnessMonitoring

PervasiveEntertainment

4G Innovation will Occur at the Intersections

Nav/TrafficManagement

Surveillance

TacticalSensors

DistributedGaming

Adaptive Strategy for 4G Services

Wireless Ecosystem

(LTE, WiMax, 3G, WiFi, etc.)

Scanning (sensing networks)

Innovations (apps, services, products, etc.)

Feedback/Learning(wireless surveys, etc) Customer roll-out

(app downloads, devices, etc)

“Rowe’s Rule: The odds are 5 to 6 that the light at the end of the tunnel is the headlight of an oncoming train”

- Paul Dickson, Washingtonian, Nov. 1978

4G networks (including LTE) need a strategy that can quickly switch tracks and avoid a train wreck!