LPS Mortgage Monitor - March 2013
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Transcript of LPS Mortgage Monitor - March 2013
Lender Processing Services 1
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LPS Mortgage Monitor
April 2013 Mortgage Performance Observations
Data as of March, 2013 Month-end
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• Focus 1: Delinquency trends and product
mix
• Focus 2: Foreclosure transitions and
inventory, including regional focus
• Focus 3: New problem loans and negative
equity trends
• Focus 4: Originations and prepayment
activity
April 2013 Focus Points
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• Total non-current loan counts were below 5
million for the first time since 2008
• Severe delinquencies represent over 60% of
all non-current loans vs. 30% pre-crisis.
• Government backed loans now represent
about 80% of the active and current market
Focus Point 1: Delinquency trends
and product mix
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Non-current loan count fell below 5
million for the first time since 2008
% of non-current
that are 90+ DQ
or in foreclosure:
2005: 30%
2013: 62%
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Government backed loans are ~80%
of the total active and current market
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• Foreclosure starts remain low after the
national mortgage settlement in late 2012
• Foreclosure inventory decline has slowed,
with judicial rates still over 3x non-judicial
• Regional legislative and judicial activity
continues to drive sharp differences in
resolution rates
Focus Point 2: Foreclosure starts,
sales and inventory
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Foreclosure starts remain subdued
post National Mortgage Settlement
Foreclosure
“cures” hit an
8 month high
in March-13
National
Mortgage
Settlement
Process
Reviews FHFA Moratoria
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FC inventory improvement slowing in
judicial states; still 3.3x non-judicial
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Foreclosure inventory resolution
varies widely beyond judicial vs. non
MA: Lenders have to prove
ownership at FC sale
NV: Affidavit required
prior to foreclosure
CA: Homeowner’s Bill of Rights (“HOBR”)
NY and NJ: Process
penalties imposed
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Legislative / judicial changes typically
impact the foreclosure sale stage
CA HOBR:
National
foreclosure sales
(ex. CA) increased
13% in Q1 2013
vs. Q4 2012
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• Ongoing home price improvement continues
to drive down negative equity
• New problem loan rates are at their lowest
levels since 2007
Focus Point 3: New Problem Loans
and Negative Equity
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Underwater borrowers are still
significantly more likely to default
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Improving home prices continues to
drive negative equity lower
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New problem loan rates are almost
back to pre-crisis levels
March 2013 was the first
time new problem loan
rates dropped below 1%
since 2007
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• Origination activity remains relatively strong
with increased non-government participation
• Mortgage rates have edged up over the past
several months but remain near historic
lows, keeping prepayment rates near recent
highs
Focus Point 4: Originations and
prepayment activity
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Origination activity remains relatively
strong with increased non-gov’t
Non-government % of total originations
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
47.9% 48.2% 31.8% 13.2% 9.3% 10.6% 13.2% 14.1%
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Prepayment speeds have remained
elevated with rates coming off lows
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LPS Mortgage Monitor
April 2013 Appendix
Data as of March, 2013 Month-end
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March 2013 Data Summary
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Seven of the top 10 states for total
non-current are judicial
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Loan counts and
average days delinquent
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LPS Mortgage Monitor
Disclosures: Product / Metric Definitions and
July 2012 Market Sizing Revisions
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Disclosure Page: Product Definitions
*Conforming limits do not account for temporary or high-cost area
increases.
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Disclosure Page: Metrics Definitions
• Total Active Count: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of
delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total
active count.
• Delinquency Statuses (30, 60, 90+, etc): All delinquency statuses are calculated using
the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in
foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.
• 90 Day Defaults: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and
were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.
• Foreclosure Inventory: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for
foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.
• Foreclosure Starts – Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that
moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month.
• Non-Current: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.
• Foreclosure Sale / New REO: Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that
moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation.
• REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration,
this includes all properties on and off the market.
• Deterioration Ratio: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency
status vs. those improving.
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With the June 2012 month-end data, LPS has updated its
extrapolation methodology to incorporate, among other
things, improved estimates of market size, which includes
higher coverage of government and subprime products and
increases LPS’ estimate of the total first lien residential
mortgage market by three percent to 50.4 million.
To ensure consistency in trend analysis, the new
methodology has been applied to all historical data and
previously reported mortgage performance statistics have
been adjusted accordingly.
The following section contains information on market
coverage and comparisons with previously reported
statistics. Additional information is available upon request.
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The new scaling increases overall estimated industry
loan count by approximately 1.2 million loans
Prior industry estimates declined
because scaling didn’t support
current servicing transfer volumes
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New scaling reflects the higher coverage of government
loans and allows for the incorporation of new servicers
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Delinquencies decline based on higher
estimated coverage of FHA and subprime loans.
Converge due to new
servicers and transfer
issues with prior scaling
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Foreclosure inventory remains almost identical, but
shifts up in recent months as transfer bias is repaired
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Foreclosure starts remain consistent, with
rates shifting up slightly
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Performance Statistics Changes: Database Counts
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Performance Statistics Changes: State Level Detail