Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
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Locally-derived Population Projections Gloucestershire Louise Li Senior Research Officer Research Team Gloucestershire County Council 8 th September 2010
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Transcript of Louise Li - Gloucestershire Population Projections Using Locally Derived Population Estimates
Locally-derived Population ProjectionsGloucestershire
Louise LiSenior Research Officer
Research TeamGloucestershire County Council
8th September 2010
Projection modelling • POPGROUP - standard cohort component approach
• with locally-derived population statistics
– population base
– locally derived fertility, mortality and migration rates
– international migration estimates
• alternative growth assumptions
• develop flexibility in service planning
Locally-derived population base
(1) local patient register records postcodes output areas
(2) local electoral registerage/gender distribution derived at output area
level
(3) child and adult population in output areas
(4) amalgamate to ward, parish, district and county
Implications of local population estimates for projections
• a starting point to project forward
• age-specific population rates
• numbers, components of change, age structure
ONS vs Locally derived population base
Birth rates (ONS vs Locally derived)
Mortality rates (ONS vs Locally derived)
Migration rates (ONS vs Locally-derived)
Locally derived international migration
Inflow(1) National Insurance Number Applications (NINO)
Age and gender split derived from worker registration scheme (WRS) and work permit data
(2) Assumptions about children
A8 countries, other EU countries and non-EU countries
(3) Assumptions about short-term migrants
OutflowIPS ratio, with age and gender split
ONS vs Locally derived international migration
Key gaps with ONS projections
Key gaps with ONS projections
Key gaps with ONS projections
Key gaps with ONS projections
Key gaps with ONS projections
Hypothetical scenarios
Impact of housing
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
20% above 597. 601. 606. 611. 616. 621. 625. 630. 634. 639. 643. 648. 652. 657. 662. 667. 671. 676. 681. 686. 691. 696. 701. 706.
Trend 597. 601. 604. 608. 611. 614. 618. 621. 624. 628. 631. 635. 638. 641. 645. 648. 651. 654. 657. 660. 662. 665. 667. 669.
20% below 597. 601. 603. 605. 607. 609. 611. 612. 614. 616. 618. 619. 621. 623. 625. 627. 629. 632. 634. 636. 639. 641. 643. 646.
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Impact of Future House Builds on Population ProjectionGloucestershire
Future development
Economy-led scenario
Small area projections
Service forecasting
Locally derived Population ProjectionsGloucestershire
Louise LiSenior Research Officer
Research TeamGloucestershire County Council
8th September 2010
