Long-Term Prospects for - Satellite Markets › pdf › oct01-09.pdf · mobile services, as well as...

Satellite ExSatellite ExSatellite ExSatellite ExSatellite Executive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefinginginginging October 1 2009 1

by Bruce ElbertApplication Technology Strategy Incand Michelle Elbert

(Continued on page 6)

Cont Cont Cont Cont Contentsentsentsentsents (Continued on page 4)

Vol 2 No 13 October 1 2009

IndustrIndustrIndustrIndustrIndustry y y y y TTTTTrrrrrendsendsendsendsends Ne Ne Ne Ne News ws ws ws ws AnalAnalAnalAnalAnalysisysisysisysisysis Mar Mar Mar Mar Markkkkket Intelliget Intelliget Intelliget Intelliget Intelligence and Opporence and Opporence and Opporence and Opporence and Opportunitiestunitiestunitiestunitiestunities

Long-TLong-TLong-TLong-TLong-Terererererm Prm Prm Prm Prm Prospects fospects fospects fospects fospects forororororMidMidMidMidMiddle East FSS Operdle East FSS Operdle East FSS Operdle East FSS Operdle East FSS OperaaaaatorstorstorstorstorsAt the recent Satellite Business Week sum-

mit in Paris the buzz centered aroundemerging markets for broadband andmobile services as well as an increaseduse of satellites in support of emergingeconomies in Africa observational andenvironmental sciences and the appetiteof the global enterprise

Lif Lif Lif Lif Lifting Leting Leting Leting Leting Levvvvvels of Conels of Conels of Conels of Conels of Convvvvvererererersationsationsationsationsation

in the lsquoSatin the lsquoSatin the lsquoSatin the lsquoSatin the lsquoSatellitellitellitellitellite Salonsrsquoe Salonsrsquoe Salonsrsquoe Salonsrsquoe Salonsrsquo

The Middle East market has seen therecent addition of new FixedSatellite Serivces (FSS) operators

who are betting on the potential of Direct-to-Home (DTH) and broadband servicesvia satellite in the region But is the marketreally there for these services

What drives demand for FSS satellitecapacity

Climate geography population distributionand culture combine together to create theldquoperfect stormrdquo for satellite capacityground equipment and services in theMiddle East market At first blushtelevision and radio broadcasting lead thepack with hundreds of channels availableon any of a dozen satellites blanketing theregion more channels are cropping up onan almost monthly basis Satellitebroadband Internet is gaining ground whilebackhauling for commercial cellularphones and corporate networks maintain arespectable pace behind

The majority of satellite television roughly75 is offered Free-To-Air (FTA) withrevenue generated through advertising orsubsidized at a loss for some other purposesuch as education Availability and lowcost make satellite television moreimportant in the Middle Eastern marketthen most other applications but weanticipate broadband Internet to gain moreprominence in the future

This is the backdrop for our discussion ofsatellite operators who currently or willshortly concentrate their energies on thisregion The two primary operators Arabsatand Nilesat are indigenous to the MiddleEast as they provide optimum coverageand maintain a direct presence where thebulk of the users exist Along with them

Unlike modern politicians formerAmerican president Calvin Coolidge

was known for not talking When asked byreporters what a minister had spoken aboutduring a religious service he had attendedldquoSilent Calrdquo replied ldquoSinrdquo When asked toelaborate further the 30th president pausedand added ldquoHersquos against itrdquo

Mr Coolidge would have fared poorly inParis a city and a culture known famouslyfor its ability to engage in conversation Yousee this attribute no matter where you goConversation is king This was true atEuroconsultrsquos World Satellite Business Weeksummit held last September 7-10 whichagain gathered the industryrsquos leaders in toshare forecasts brief the financialcommunity the press and senior leaders onour industryrsquos state of affairs (See theSatellite Business Week show report on page14)

From the EditorShow Report Satellite Business WeekMarket TrendsCalendar of EventsVital StatisticsSatellite Markets 25 Index

314 8101213

by Lou ZacharillaDir of Development SSPI

Satellite ExSatellite ExSatellite ExSatellite ExSatellite Executive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefinginginginging October 1 20092

At Satellite 2009Link up to theGateway at SFIGrsquosBooth 1600

NewtecBelgium | USA | Singapore | Dubai | China | South Africa | Brazil wwwnewteceu

IP Transmission Equipment

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Vol 2 No 5 April 1-15 2009

IndustrIndustrIndustrIndustrIndustry y y y y TTTTTrrrrrendsendsendsendsends Ne Ne Ne Ne News ws ws ws ws AnalAnalAnalAnalAnalysisysisysisysisysis Mar Mar Mar Mar Markkkkket Intelliget Intelliget Intelliget Intelliget Intelligence and Opporence and Opporence and Opporence and Opporence and OpportunitiestunitiestunitiestunitiestunitiesEDITORIAL STAFF

Virgil LabradorEditor-in-Chiefvirgilsatellitemarketscom

Peter I GalaceEditor Asia-Pacificpetersatellitemarketscom

Howard GreenfieldContributing Editor Europe Middle Eastand Africa (EMEA)howardsatellitemarketscom

Contributing Writers

Bruce Elbert Dan FreyerRobert Bell Elisabeth TweedieAlan Gottlieb Lou ZacharillaB H Schneiderman Tom Watts

SYNTHESIS PUBLICATIONS LLCPOBox 4174 West Covina CA 91791 USA

Phone +1-626-931-6395 Fax +1-425-969-2654E-mail infosatellitemarketscom

Advertising

Michelle ElbertDirector of Marketingmichellesatellitemarketscom

Keystone Enterprise Services7 wwwkeystonebtvcom

Newtec2 wwwnewteceu

Satellite Executive Briefing is published biweeklyby Synthesis Publications LLC

and is available for free atwwwsatellitemarketscom

Signs are Leading to a Recovery

copy 2009 No part of this publication may bereprinted or reproduced without prior writ-ten consent from the publisher

On the first anniversary last September 16 of the collapse of Lehman Brothers that started the world economiesrsquo down-

ward spiral US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernake de-clared in a speech to the Brookings Institute that ldquoat the pointwe are in a recoveryrdquo stopping short of declaring that the worst

recession in decades is officially over But the signs are looking very goodindeed The International Monetary Fund released just before we went to pressits annual World Economic Oulook Report (wwwimforgexternalpubsftweo200902pdfc1pdf) and it affirmed that ldquoThe global economy appears to be ex-panding again pulled up by the strong performance off Asian economies and stabi-lization or modest recovery elsewhererdquo The IMF report is projecting modest in-creases in the economies in 2010 of the hardest hit advanced industrialized coun-tries including the US

The S amp P and Dow Jones Indexes have been rallying in the past weeks with theSampP steadying over 1000 and the Dow Jones hitting the 10000 mark for the firsttime since the recession started Our own Satellite Markets 25 Index is now onlydown 8 percent from its January 2008 level when we started tracking the index (seepage 13)

Understandably the mood was quite upbeat in two im-portant industry events held in September--theEuroConsult Satellite Business Week in Paris and theIBC 2009 Conference and Exhibition in Amsterdam AsElisabeth Tweedie reported there was a collective sighof relief from the participants at the EuroConsult eventthat the satellite industry was able to go through thepast year relatively unscathed (see the show report onpage 14) In both the event in Paris and at the IBC inAmsterdam everyone is looking forward to 2010

I think what one executive I interviewed at IBC saidpretty much sums up the last year He said that therehave been companies that went under but those whomade it through will emerge stronger and will be in a very good position movingforward

I totally agree

ND SatCom16 wwwndsatcomcom

PTC 201011 wwwptcorgptc10

Adver Adver Adver Adver Advertisertisertisertisertisersrsquo Indesrsquo Indesrsquo Indesrsquo Indesrsquo Indexxxxx

San Francisco Interrsquol Gateway12 wwwsfig-teleportcom

The Satellite Technology Guide10wwwsatellitemarketscomnode34

From the Editor

Viewvideos of asummaryof thehighlightsof the IBC 2009 inAmsterdam andinterveews with keyexecutives atwwwsatellitemarketscom mediavideolistphp


Middle East FSS Operatorsfrom page 1

Cover Story

Eutelsat Intelsat and SES are growinga presence that challenges thedominance of the indigenous operatorsWe observe that to counter this threatthey have adopted world-class operatingmodes and business practices that bothforeign and regional customersunderstand and appreciate This marketwill be furtheraffected by thelaunch of YahSat 1around the end of2010 introducingKa band capacityand services to analready robust Kuband market

What the regionalFSS players haveto offer

ArabSat

ArabSat has beencovering the regionfor well over thirtyyears Currentlythey operate a fleet offive GEOc o m m u n i c a t i o n ssatellites (located at26deg E and 305deg E)the most recent ofwhich was BADR-6 launched in 2008with another new launch planned everyyear until at least 2011 They provideservices in Direct-To-Home (DTH)television transmission andbackhauling for broadcasters trunkingfor telecom and corporate networks aswell as broadband Internet services

By mirroring and possibly improvingupon the business and technical stylesof Eutelsat Intelsat and other foreign

companies Arabsat has held on tightlyto its leadership in the delivery ofsatellite TV Importantly they haveshown strong commitment to thetechnology and business by continuingto invest in new satellites This is thesame strategy used successfully in theUS by the Galaxy System (now owned

and operated by Intelsat) whichpersevered through challenges broughtby competitors and other technologiesThe same can be said of the SES Astrasystem in Europe which started alongthe same lines as Galaxy to become thefocal point of TV programming withinits coverage region

Nilesat

NileSat was founded in the early 90rsquosand focuses primarily on DTH

broadcasting services Of the 450channels offered over its three currentsatellites at 7deg W roughly 25 of themare subscription based with the rest sentout free to nearly 40 million homes withNilesat set-top boxes Over the past threeyears NileSat has partnered withEuropean service provider Eutelsat to

provide coverage forthe MENA regionfrom that locationWith the launch ofNilesat 201 in 2010the two companiesbelieve they willboost capacity in the7deg W neighborhoodby 30 Thispartnership shouldprovide stability andinvestment allowingNilesat to control itsmarket A challengefrom YahSat mayalready have startedas they haveannounced a

partnership of theirown with SES

YahSat

YahSat was formed in2007 and is set to launch its first satelliteYahsat 1A at 525deg E towards the end of2010 A recently announced partnershipwith SES ASTRA will create YahLive aDTH satellite television service Thesatellite broadband service YahClick willlaunch when Yahsat 1b does in 2011 Thecompany was formed when a strongdemand for satellite capacity wasidentified in the MENA market and eventhough three years will pass betweenforming as a company and opening theirtransponders for business it is believed

(

An explosion of regional programming is fueling demandfor satellite services in the Middle East (photo courtesyof SAMACOM teleport)


demand will still be sufficient to supportYahLive and YahClick as well as twoother ldquoYahrdquo brands providingbackhauling services and governmentapplications to fixed and mobile users

Intelsat

Intelsat the worldrsquos leading provider offixed satellite services recentlyannounced significant increases inrevenues and decreases in losses whichwere attributed in part to new businessand renewals in the Middle East (amongother regions) Currently the Intelsatfleet maintains about a dozen satelliteslocated at various points between 33degE and 85deg E with footprints that includethe Middle East providing a variety ofservices for various customers andpartners There are plans to launchIntelsat 22 to 72deg E in 2012 forincreased coverage of the MENA regionwith connectivity into Europe but firstIntelsat 15 will begin providing Ku-band VSAT services to corporate andgovernment customers when it launchesthis year Services to military and theinternational media are one of Intelsatrsquosstrong suits because of the globalfootprint and their experience servingthese sectors This gives them theadvantage in those countries of the

Cover Story

Bruce Elbert has over 30 years of experience in satellitecommunications and is the President of Application TechnologyStrategy Inc which assists satellite operators networkproviders and users in the public and private sectors He is anauthor and educator in these fields having produced seven titlesand conducted technical and business training around the worldDuring 25 years with Hughes Electronics he directed major

technical projects and led business activities in the US and overseas He is theauthor of The Satellite Communication Applications Handbook second edition(Artech House 2004) Web site wwwapplicationstrategycom Emailbruceapplicationstrategycom

Michelle Elbert is the Director of Marketing for Satellite Markets and Researchand a consultant for Application Technology Strategy Inc She has extensiveexperience in the satellite and IT industries and holds an MBA from ConcordiaUniversity She can be reached at michellesatellitemarketscom

MENA where suchactivities are the greatest

Eutelsat

As we mentionedpreviously Eutelsat has anongoing partnership withNileSat to develop theirconstellation at 7deg EOverall Eutelsatrsquos fleetconsists of 27 satellitesplaced at various points

between 15deg W and 705deg E 18 of whichare capable of serving the MENA regionBy 2011 those numbers will increase to 32and 21 respectively Aside from itsbroadcasting services Eutelsat also providescorporate data networks and broadbandservices such as IP backbone connectivityon-the-move broadband access VirtualPrivate Networks (VPN) and IP contentdistribution The IT-centric focus of Eutelsatthrough a partnership with Viasat givesthem a potential lead in growing their MEbusiness

What the future portends forcurrent and emerging FSS players

As a result of the efforts of theoperators the FSS marketplace andtechnical environment in the MiddleEast are essentially on a par withEurope and North America The globalrecession has probably affected theappetite for new satellites and serviceproviders but the existing base is quitestrong and moving ahead in terms ofadopting modern technology likeDVB-S2 and HD VSAT services toenterprises and ultimately directly tothe consumer are not developed to thescope of what is found in theAmericas However there is growingdemand for high speed Internet accessoutside of major cities like Dubai andKuwait and this can only be addressedin the near term by satellite Thesituation then is one where supplylooks favorable in an environment ofgrowing demand The long termprospects are very good

The situation is one where supplylooks favorable in an environment ofgrowing demand The long termprospects are very good


Opinion

Lifting Levels of Conversation at the lsquoSatllite Salonsrsquofrom page 1

Despite the good news (and there wasplenty of it centered around emergingmarkets for broadband and mobileservices as well as an increased use ofsatellites in support of emergingeconomies in Africa observational andenvironmental sciences and the appetiteof the globalenterprise) the issueof how to ensure thatsatellites get intoservice wasu n d e r s t a n d a b l yremained a source ofanxiety It is achallenge with longroots

The ProtoStar andSea Launchbankruptcies werenaturally top of mindamong operators andreporters and thisfed discussions in thecorridors Theexchanges wererevealing While theglobal economicpanic has notreached into thesatellite communityto any significantdegree peopledebated whether alaunch company is ldquotoo big to failrdquo Ofcourse the phrase originated in the hallsof government and relates to automobilecompanies and investment banks Yet italso describes a concern with gettingpayloads into orbit efficiently This buzzwas heard audibly at the SSPI CocktailReception and throughout the ldquosalonsrdquoof the Napoleon Room and WinterGarden

Asked whether Intelsat and fellowoperators including SES might find itin their interest to fund the survival ofSea Launch CEO David McGladethoughtfully acknowledged that SeaLaunch was vital He upheld thecompanyrsquos public commitment to honor

its agreements but did not bite when areporter asked whether he and othersshould take a more aggressivesomewhat unconventional action suchas a letter of credit or possible directinvestment to prevent a potentiallydarker fate

The question and the answers reveal aconflicted issue Companies such asArianespace have maintained perhapscorrectly that the operatorsrsquo insistence

on lower and lower launch prices haveharsh consequences Sea Launch whichessentially tried to accommodate theserequests to generate business with lowerprices may be a symbol of the big issuewhich may not go away

The industry is strugglingto learn the importance ofthe Sea Launch lesson Forany satellite executive itforces an assessment of therealistic options availableto accommodate thegrowth in demand for moresatellite service Thequestion is important ndashextremely so because onecan check the globalYellow Pages and notcome across manycompanies advertisinglow-cost fast turnaroundservices to lift 6000 kilosworth of moderntelecommunications ndash thelifeblood of the globaleconomy ndash into orbit (Nottoday at least) Among thefuture options which wereduly noted by RomainBausch Elon Musk GregWyler and others is theidea that Chinese and

Indian rockets as well as new venturessuch as the Falcon fleet of SpaceX willfill the gap and ultimately reinvent themarket Since these options represent apoint of departure resistance to changeand the weight of mixed opinions willbe more prevalent in the near-termLong-term change will come

With a steady stream of launches pendingand apparently more on the way insupport of the growing set of needs two

The recent success of start-up launch service provider SpaceXrsquoFalcon rocket is expected to fill the gap from the Sea Launchbankruptcy (photo SpaceX)


Opinion

Lou Zacharilla is the Director of Developmentof the Society of Satellite ProfessionalsInternational (SSPI) He can be reached atlzacharillasspiorg

quotes come to mind They reflect theconversation which will be carried intothe ldquosalonsrdquo of Satellite Week in NewYork PTC the Satellite show inWashington DC ndash and dozens of otherevents in between

The first comes from a persistentlyprescient article written in 2004 byOwen Kurtin and Michael R FlynnAppearing in Satellite Finance under thetitle ldquo30 50 amp 70rdquo it addressed thisissue during a time of overcapacity

Its authors wrote ldquoAs counterintuitive asit may sound in a situation of chronicoversupply a big part of the long-termolution lies in increasing launch

frequencyhelliphellipFrequent launches willwing out launch vehicle reliabilityissues lowering insurance costs andcontributing to space accessaffordabilityhellipFrequent flightsimplymass production of standardizedvehicles and such vehicles will belessexpensiverdquo

The second I offer to you from a manwriting a few years before our industry

began Set within todayrsquos struggle whichmay be defined as a necessary evaluationbetween price leverage and the need fordeeper collaboration among all of theplayers for the sake of expansionShakespearersquos warning to another groupof businessmen is worthy of a sentenceof Silent Cal ldquoIf you wrong us shall wenot revengerdquo

Let the talk continue


Market Trends

Satellite Operator RSatellite Operator RSatellite Operator RSatellite Operator RSatellite Operator Reeeeevvvvvenues to Increase benues to Increase benues to Increase benues to Increase benues to Increase by 50 andy 50 andy 50 andy 50 andy 50 andRRRRReaceaceaceaceach US$ 1h US$ 1h US$ 1h US$ 1h US$ 138 Bil b38 Bil b38 Bil b38 Bil b38 Bil by 20y 20y 20y 20y 201111188888

According to NSRrsquos new report Global Assessment ofSatellite Supply amp Demand (GASD) 6th Editioncommercial satellite operators saw a very good year

in 2008 with revenues up substantially More importantly mostsatellite operators have yet to report any substantial damagefrom the global economic crisis and assuming recovery issolidly in place by the end of 2009 it appears that they willlargely escape unscathed There is still some risk becausesatellite capacity leasing is historically a trailing indicator ofeconomic strength yetthe majority of thebusiness is built on TVwatching and thismarket has onlyincreased in the lasty e a r

Beyond TV NSRnoted some cases ofslowing sales cyclessuch as for corporateVSAT networkingservices but this tendsto be offset by growthin other segments likebackhaul orgovernment leasing Infact there will likely bea spike in demand inthe 2010 to 2011 timeperiod in many markets as new capacity becomes availableand the improving business climate leads to re-launching ofdelayed spending or investment for future growth NSR alsocontinues to track developments in the satellite broadbandInternet access services segment which could lead to a majorshift in how parts of the market are seen in the future as wellas other services like maritime aeronautical and other mobilityservices

There is a substantial change in this ldquoGlobal Assessment ofSatellite Supply amp Demand (GASD) 6th Editionrdquo study thatillustrates how NSR is constantly innovating and making everyeffort to include the most informed and representative analysisof actual market conditions in its studies Starting from thisedition NSR now includes a complete and detailed assessment

of demand for High Throughput Satellite (HTS) capacity inparallel to the traditional FSS C-band Ku-band and Ka-bandmarkets previously addressed NSR defines an HTS as anysatellite or satellite payload that has at least twice (thoughusually many times more) the throughput of a traditional FSSsatellite for the same amount of allocated frequency on orbitThese satellites can use either Ku-band or Ka-band frequenciesto provision a service and almost exclusively make use offrequency reuse and multiple spot beams to increase

throughput and reducethe price per bitdelivered Further thecost of the groundequipmentcustomerpremise equipment foran HTS-based serviceshould not be a barrierto HTS capacity beingsubstituted for FSScapacity for anycommercial satelliteapplication addressed inthis study

Adding togethercommercial C- Ku- andKa-band transponderdemand NSR estimatesthat about 5130 TPEs(36 MHz transponderequivalents) of capacity

were leased on the global market in 2008 and this will increaseat the average annual rate of 22 and reach more than 6370TPEs in the next ten years In addition about 16 Gbps ofcommercial HTS capacity was leased in 2008 and this shouldincrease more than ten-fold by 2018 The entirety of thiscommercial leasing is believed to have generated some US$91billion in revenues for satellite operators in 2008 and couldwell increase by half reaching US$138 billion by 2018

The ldquoGlobal Assessment of Satellite Supply amp Demand(GASD) 6th Editionrdquo study is a multi-client report nowavailable from NSR For additional information on this reportincluding a full table of contents list of exhibits and executivesummary visit wwwnsrcom or call NSR at 617-576-5771


Market Trends

RRRRRecoecoecoecoecovvvvvererererery in Sight for Broadcasy in Sight for Broadcasy in Sight for Broadcasy in Sight for Broadcasy in Sight for Broadcast Indust Indust Indust Indust Industrtrtrtrtryyyyy

Strategy Analytics and D I S Consulting announced at theIBC 2009 show in Amsterdam that their latest prediction

for the global broadcast andprofessional media production marketheralds a return to growth in 2010After a severe downturn in mostindustry segments during 2009 theanalysts expect global revenues toincrease by 48 next year The resultswere be presented at StrategyAnalyticsrsquo annual Analyst Breakfastduring this yearrsquos IBC in AmsterdamNetherlands on Sunday 13thSeptember

Douglas I Sheer CEO and Chief Analyst of DIS ConsultingCorporation notes ldquoThe broadcasting and professional mediaindustries are heading for a 48 increase overall in 2010 Thisgrowth forecast although modest is a sign that the industrywhich has seen a devastatingly steep decline ndash an average of a14 decline mdash in 2009 purchases is on its way back uprdquo

Two factors have motivated Sheer to make this statementactual findings from more than ten already published annual

global reports all pointing towardsmodest improvements in thecoming year and other reliableindustry tracking indicators suchas those from the (U S) TelevisionBureau of Advertising whichfollows advertising revenues atstations and which have indicatedan uptick in 2010 All pointtowards improvement in thecoming year

ldquoAll of the signs are coming up aspositive towards a recovery next yearrdquo said Sheer In additionto the forecast for broadcast DIS is confident that other non-broadcast sales in the industry such as in event video mobileOB and medical video will be even stronger in recoveryperhaps topping 7 next year as the entire industry rallies

LBS RLBS RLBS RLBS RLBS Reeeeevvvvvenues to Renues to Renues to Renues to Renues to Reaceaceaceaceach US $ 29 Bil in lsquo09h US $ 29 Bil in lsquo09h US $ 29 Bil in lsquo09h US $ 29 Bil in lsquo09h US $ 29 Bil in lsquo09

ABI Research expects Location Based Services revenuesto grow at 156 from $17 billion in 2008 to $26 billion

in 2009 By 2014 global LBS revenues will have surpassed$14 billion

ldquoOne of the main drivers of the strong growth in LBS is thepopularity of an impressive number of off-deck LBSapplications available for a one-off fee on smartphoneplatformsrdquo says ABI Research practice director DominiqueBonte ldquoApplersquos iPhone is leading the way followed byBlackberry Nokia and Android There seems to be no limit todevelopersrsquo creativity in using location for functions such assearch social networking messaging micro-blogging andaugmented reality Combined with the astonishing popularityof the new generation of GPS-enabled touch screensmartphones this will continue to constitute the lifeblood ofLBS in the coming yearsrdquo

A More Open Strategy

Many carriers in both the US and Europe are waking up tothis reality by gradually adopting a more open LBS strategywith Verizon increasing the number of unlocked GPS phonesand Vodafone having acquired navigation software vendorWayfinder Both carriers are also making their networksaccessible via open API platforms Other carriers such asSprint have opted to partner with location aggregators as away to play a role in the LBS ecosystem

Which models

While there is no doubt LBS is heading towards mass marketadoption it remains unclear which pricing and businessmodels will emerge successfully Currently subscription-basedmodels are making way for one-off pricing or free hardware-subsidized offers but expectations for advertising revenues

(Continued next page )


Market Trends

in the longer term remain high despite privacy andfragmentation issues

Bonte concludes ldquoABI Research expects many businessmodels will continue to coexist with recurring fees formany enterprise navigation and safety services but freemodels for most other consumer applicationsrdquo

ldquoLocation Based Services Market Datardquo provides LBSsubscriber and revenue forecast data per region and pertype of application (Community EnterpriseInfotainment Navigation amp Mapping Gaming ampRecreation and People Tracking) Forecasts foralternative positioning technologies and locationplatforms are also included For more information visitwwwabiresearchcom or call +15166242500

The Satellite TechnologyGuide for the 21stCentury

by Virgil S Labradorwith chapter contributionsfrom John M Puetz DC Pal-ter and Daniel B Freyer

200 pages 55 x 85 Illustrated with photos tablesand diagrams with appendi-ces

ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2

Price US$ 2599 (includingshipping and handling)

The Satellite Technology Guide for the 21st Century clearly explains innon-technical terms the basics of satellite communications technol-ogy and how it works This book also provides a historical backgroundof the industry its current status market prospects trends and thefuture of satellite communications

Fully illustrated with graphs and tablesthe book contains appendices includinga glossary of terms and a list of industryresources

Chapters include A Brief History of theSatellite Communications Industry Over-view of the Satellite Communications In-dustry The Basics of Satellite Communi-cations The Space Segment The GroundSegment Satellite Services VSATs Sat-ellites and the Internet The Future of Sat-ellite Communications

An indispensable guide to the basics ofsatellite technology and the global indus-

try No other book in the market today provides a more comprehen-sive view of satellite technology and the industry in one easy-to-readvolume at a very low price of only $2599 including shipping and han-dling For more information or to order your copy now go to wwwsatellitemarketscomnode34 or e-mail salessatellitemarketscom

October 5-9 2009 ITU Telecom World 2009 GenevaSwitzerland Tel +41 22 730 6161 Fax +41 22 730 6444e-mail itutelecomituintweb wwwituintWORLD2009

October 7-11 2009 CeBIT Eurasia BilisimInternational Trade Fair for InformationTechnology Telecommunications Software +Services held in conjunction with CeBIT BroadcastCable+Satellite Eurasia Istanbul TurkeyTel +90 (212) 334 69 69 Fax +90 (212) 334 69 70e-mailinfocebitbilisimcomweb wwwcebitbilisimcomindexhtml andwwwcebit-bcscomenindexhtml

October 14-15 2009 Satcon 2009 Javits ConventionCenter New York City USA Tel +1-203-371-6322 e-mail infojdeventscom web wwwsatconexpocom

October 18-21 2009 MILCOM 2009 World TradeCenter Boston Mass USA Tel +508-880-1035 or+1-508-880-1037 e-mailcherylcushingmilcom09com web wwwmilcomorg

November 3-6 2009 CASBAA Convention 2009Grand Hyatt Hotel Hong Kong Tel +852 2854 9913e-mail conventioncasbaacomweb wwwcasbaaconventioncom

Calendar of Events

Satellite ExSatellite ExSatellite ExSatellite ExSatellite Executive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefecutive Briefinginginginging October 1 2009 11 PLEASE VISIT WWWPTCORGPTC10 TO REGISTER FOR PTCrsquo10

Embracing the Cloud

Enabling Connectivity and Innovation17 ndash 20 January 2010 Hilton Hawaiian Villagereg Beach Resort amp Spa Honolulu Hawaii USA wwwptcorgptc10

A fundamental shift is occurring in the telecommunications and ICT industries Ever more applications and services are moving from dedicated networks and end-user devices to servers on the Internet No facet of either the telecom or ICT industries will remain untouched by this transformation

PTCrsquo10 will highlight the impacts of the rapid evolution of cloud computing for communications carriers capacity providers providers of undersea cables and satellite services application developers media and content providers and end users

For more information please visit wwwptcorgptc10

CONFIRMED FEATURED PARTICIPANTS INCLUDE

ANDREW KWOK SVP International Business Hutchison Global Communications Ltd Hong Kong SAR China

DIARMID MASSEY VP Carrier Services mdash Global Markets Cable amp Wireless Worldwide Singapore

CHRISTIAN MICHAUD SVP Product Marketing and Business Development Tata Communications Canada

KATHRYN MORRISSEY EVP ATampT USA

ELI NOAM Professor Economics and Finance Columbia Business School USA

RAJ PATEL VP Infrastructure and Operations Strategy Yahoo Inc USA

ROBERT PEPPER VP Global Technology Policy Cisco USA

EDWARD ROGERS President Cable amp Telecom Rogers Communications Canada

SHIGEO TANI Director-General for International Affairs Global ICT Strategy Bureau Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) Japan

RODRIGUE ULLENS CEO Voxbone Belgium

JIDONG ZHAO SVP China Unicom Peoplersquos Republic of China

HELMUT ANGST Chairman of the Board of Directors Deutsche Telekom North America Germany

SHAI BERGER Co-Founder and CEO Fonolo USA

SUREEL CHOKSI CMO Level 3 USA

PETER COFFEE Director of Platform Research Salesforcecom USA

JEANNIE DIEFENDERFER SVP Global Engineering and Planning Verizon Business USA

SCOTT FORBES VP Technology Ventures GE USA

MALIN FRENNING SVP TeliaSonara and President TeliaSonara International Carrier Sweden

VIJAY GILL Senior Manager Engineering and Architecture Google USA

FRANK FAWZI CEO and Chairman of the Board IntelePeer USA

OFER GNEEZY CEO and President iBasis USA

TREN GRIFFIN Strategist Advanced Strategies amp Policies Microsoft USA

MIKE HILL VP Enterprise Initiatives IBM USA

MIKE JAMES Director of Systems Engineering MetaSwitch USA

MATTHIAS KURTH President Federal Network Agency Germany

Pacific Telecommunications Council

wwwptcorg

Please visit wwwptcorgptc10 for an up-to-date list of confirmed program participants as well as for the complete program


Asia Leading the WAsia Leading the WAsia Leading the WAsia Leading the WAsia Leading the Waaaaay in Broadband Groy in Broadband Groy in Broadband Groy in Broadband Groy in Broadband Growthwthwthwthwth

Source The Broadband Forum

The latest Point Topic research shows that Asia is now home to nearly 40 of the worldrsquos 4443 million broadbandsubscribers according to figures released at the Broadband World Forum in Paris in September

Top 10 broadband countries (no of subscribers)

China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200

South Korea 15876992

Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107


The Satellite Markets 25 IndexTM is a composite of 25 publicly-traded satellite companies worldwide with five companiesrepresenting each major market segment of the industry satellite operators satellite and component manufacturersground equipment manufacturers satellite service providers and consumer satellite services The base data for theSatellite Market Index is January 2 2008--the first day of operation for Satellite Market and Research The Index equals1000 The Satellite Market IndexTM provides an investment benchmark to gauge the overall health of the satelliteindustry

copy 2009 Satellite Markets and Research Satellite Executive Briefing and the Satellite Market IndexTM are trademarks of Synthesis Publications LLC Synthesis PublicationsLLC is the owner of the trademark service marks and copyrights related to the Index This newsletter does not constitute an offer of an investment product SatelliteExecutive Briefing makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing based on the information provided in the Satellite Markets IndexTM All information isprovided lsquoas isrsquo for information purposes only and is not intenteded for trading purpose or advice Neither Satellite Executive Briefing nor any related party is liable for anyinformational error incompleteness or for any actions taken based on information contained herein

Comparison of Indices Index value Percentage Change (Aug 31rsquo09) 2-Weeks Ago Jan 2 rsquo08Satellite Markets 25 IndexTM 97331 490 267

S amp P 500 105708 76 2669

Satellite Markets 25 IndexTM

The Satellite Markets 25 IndexTM

Price change fromCompany Name Symbol (Sep 30) 52-wk Range 52-wk High

Satellite Operators

AsiaSat 1135HK 1170 -331 461 - 1260 714Eutelsat Communications ETLPA 2077 282 1414 - 21015 117Hughes Communications Inc HUGH 3034 828 777 - 3698 1796Inmarsat ISATL 55150 -125 30000 - 61400 1018SES SESF 1555 190 1136 - 1568 083

Satellite and Component Manufacturers

Boeing BA 5415 240 2905 - 5800 664COM DEV International Ltd CDVTO 279 410 221 - 398 2990Lockheed Martin Corp LMT 7808 -186 5741 - 11231 3048Loral Space and Communications LORL 2748 1171 602 - 3483 2110Orbital Sciences Corp ORB 1497 027 1160 - 2466 3929

Ground Equipment Manufacturers

C-COM Satellite Systems Inc CMIV 031 690 015 - 039 2051Comtech Telecommunications Corp CMTL 3322 -371 1956 - 5055 3428CPI International Inc CPII 1119 -628 507 - 1461 2341EMS Technologies Inc ELMG 2082 441 1620 - 2853 2702Viasat VSAT 2658 424 1515 - 2774 418

Satellite Service Providers

Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd GILT 421 -454 217 - 599 2972Globecomm Systems Inc GCOM 727 -041 396 - 890 1831International Datacasting Corp IDCTO 02650 392 015 - 043 3837ORBCOMM Inc ORBC 272 924 116 - 514 4708Skyterra Communications SKYTOB 482 3771 080 - 500 4554

Consumer Satellite Services

British Sky Broadcasting Group BSY 3653 310 1990 - 3707 146The DIRECTV Group DTV 2758 583 1770 - 2783 090ECHOSTAR Communications DISH 1926 772 834 - 2121 919Globalstar Inc GSAT 076 -617 015 - 200 6200Sirius XM Radio Inc SIRI 06350 -793 005 - 078 1859

Change from2-Weeks Ago


Show Report

World Satellite BusinessWeek 2009The Westin Paris France7 ndash 10 September 2009

A CollectivA CollectivA CollectivA CollectivA Collective Sigh of Re Sigh of Re Sigh of Re Sigh of Re Sigh of Relief from theelief from theelief from theelief from theelief from theWWWWWorld Satellite Business World Satellite Business World Satellite Business World Satellite Business World Satellite Business Weekeekeekeekeek

Phewhellipwe survived That seemed to be the expressionon everyonersquos lips at the recently-concluded SatelliteBusiness Week organized by EuroConsult held in Paris

from 7-10 September There was a definite feeling of relief inthe air Relief that the recession hadnrsquot hit the satellitecompanies as badly as it had other industries A sentimentthat probably isnrsquot shared by companies that recently filed forbankruptcy such as ICO Global Protostar and SeaLaunch-allbut the latter were noticeably absent this year

If we consider what has happened in the world at large sincethe last Satellite Business Week a year ago starting 5 dayslater with the collapse of Lehman Brothers (who had beenspeaking at the conference) the near collapse of AIG GeneralMotors and Chrysler filing for Chapter 11 the Dow JonesIndex which was at 11510 at the beginning of the last SBWplummeting to 6547 and a doubling of the unemploymentrate in the US to mention just a few of the ldquolowlightsrdquo it ishardly surprising that the mood was decidedly upbeatCompared to most of the rest of the world we got away lightlyThe most repeated word at the conference was GrowthGrowth in the past year and more growth expected in theforeseeable future

The conference covered many key areas manufacturingGlobal and Regional Operators MSS Broadband and Financeand this year a day was also devoted to Earth Observation Totry and encapsulate the mood of the conference Irsquom going tofocus on the FSS sector

The news from the major operators was positive - solid fillrates revenue growth and expansion plans All regions werereporting good fill rates overall Euroconsult found an averageof 76 Individually Eutelsat who were named FSS Operatorof the Year reported a fill rate of 888 and a 4 year backlogSES an overall fill rate of around 80 but 100 for DTHand also a 4 year backlog Willy Chow of ABS said that theywere expecting a fill rate of around 100 in the near futureTelesat - who are due to make a decision in the next few weeksas to whether to take capacity on ViaSat1 or not - is also

reporting fill rates in the mid 80s Hispasat 99 and Arabsatsaid that the overall fill rate for the MENA region is 83SES showed a chart indicating that in spite of an anticipated22 additional C and Ku capacity being added around theworld fill rates in all regions were still expected to be around80 in 2016

The news was equally positive on the revenue front overallFSS revenues for 2008 were 105 higher than the previousyear Intelsat reporting an increase of 10 Eutelsat 72 andABS a consistent increase of 20 quarter on quarter SESreported a 155 increase in operating cash flow in the first 6months of his year but Mark Rigolle (CFO) emphasizing theneed for a long term outlook in the satellite business pointedout that this growth was due to decisions that had been made 3or 4 years ago

So what has been driving this growth In a word - televisionEuroconsult found a continued steep growth in the number ofTV channels worldwide with over 2900 added in the last yearbringing the total to approximately 24100 TV channelsdelivered by satellite This is expected to continue to grow to35000 by 2017 Eutelsat showed that for Europe and MENAnot only had the overall number of TV households grown butcable and satellite households were continuing to take sharefrom terrestrial ending 2008 with 54 of the market comparedto 42 in 2002 It is often said that in a recession the TVindustry thrives as consumers turn to home entertainmentEutelsat showed an interesting chart illustrating this point bydemonstrating that there appears to be no correlation betweenGDP growth ndash or lack thereof ndash and growth in the numbers ofPay TV subscribers This fact is also borne out by researchfrom Nielsen indicating that TV viewing in US homes was atan all time high in the first quarter of 2009

So far HD has had very little impact outside the US with only300 channels in the rest of the world but most operators are

by Elisabeth Tweedie


expecting this to change in the next few years In 2008 forexample there were 115 HD channels in Europe but this isexpected to increase to 480 by 2012

Geographically 71 of the net increase in capacity came fromemerging markets and Euroconsult expect this growth to remainstronger than in more developed markets in the next few yearsAlthough for Eutelsat the biggest growth was in Europe withthe number of TV channels carried at 9deg East nearly doublingto 245

All this is good news for the manufacturers 25 GEOs wereordered in 2008 and a similar number is expected for this yearIntelsat has embarked on the largest investment program inthe FSS industry with 11 satellites to be launched by 2012SES has 8 to be launched by 2011 andEutelsat 5 in the same time period Arabsatis planning one new satellite each year forthe next 4 years Possibly encouraged byall this good news both Boeing andLockheed Martin stated very clearly thatthey were back in the commercial satellitebusiness

However although the overall mood wasvery positive a few notes of caution were

sounded Peter Jackson from AsiaSat commented that growthhad slowed in Asia as funding tightened and cable operatorsdelayed upgrade and expansion plans Euroconsult noted thatgrowth in DTH platforms had slowed considerably with only3 new platforms so far this year compared to 17 last yearConsolidation is also expected in some markets where thereare currently more than 2-3 DTH operators A couple of theinvestment bankers warned that FSS may be a laggingindicator and that if the rest of the world recovers the satellitesector may under perform relative to other sectors But theywere not able to dampen the overall feeling of relief in thesalons of the Westin Hotel where there was also growthUnlike many other conferences this year at 450 attendanceat Satellite Business Week was higher than last year

Elisabeth Tweedie has over 20 years experience at thecutting edge of new communication and entertainmenttechnologies She can be reached atetweediedefinitivedirectioncom or phone at +1-310-292-0755 or +44 (0)7768 610574


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Vol 2 No 5 April 1-15 2009









Advertising



Newtec2 wwwnewteceu











I totally agree






From the Editor




Cover Story



ArabSat





Nilesat





YahSat


(




Intelsat


Cover Story





Eutelsat







Opinion













Opinion










Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Vol 2 No 5 April 1-15 2009









Advertising



Newtec2 wwwnewteceu











I totally agree






From the Editor




Cover Story



ArabSat





Nilesat





YahSat


(




Intelsat


Cover Story





Eutelsat







Opinion













Opinion










Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom








Cover Story



ArabSat





Nilesat





YahSat


(




Intelsat


Cover Story





Eutelsat







Opinion













Opinion










Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom








Intelsat


Cover Story





Eutelsat







Opinion













Opinion










Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Opinion













Opinion










Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Opinion










Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Market Trends












Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Market Trends














Which models




Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Market Trends







ISBN 978-1-60530-421-2












Calendar of Events


Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Embracing the Cloud
































wwwptcorg







China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom











China 93549000

USA 86227582

Japan 31085500

Germany 24086250

France 18324300

UK 17838200


Italy 12855463

Brazil 10469755

Canada 9618107





S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom










S amp P 500 105708 76 2669




Satellite Operators












Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom







Show Report

























wwwndsatcomcom


















wwwndsatcomcom






Long-Term Prospects for - Satellite Markets › pdf › oct01-09.pdf · mobile services, as well as...

Documents

Transcript of Long-Term Prospects for - Satellite Markets › pdf › oct01-09.pdf · mobile services, as well as...