LOGISTICS SECTOR OVERVIEW...Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its...
Transcript of LOGISTICS SECTOR OVERVIEW...Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its...
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
L O G I S T I C S S E C T O R O V E R V I E W
1. State of the industry
• Customs
• Air
• Ocean
• Domestic
2. Future Outlook & Trends
3. Finding the Signal in the Noise
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Trade ImpactsState of the industry Capacity & Demand
Focus on Execution Carrier LandscapeLogistics ProvidersDigital DisruptorsAdditional Impacts
Pre-COVID-19
Current
Future
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
Global PandemicPost EntryMonitoringComplexity
Compliance controls upstreamData and Reporting Strategic RelationshipsInnovation
Understanding = Complexity can lead to opportunity
Global InfrastructureLocal Expertise
Knowledge Based Approach
Political & Economic Uncertainty
Global PandemicGovernment Audits
2020
2020 OUTLOOK BACKDROP
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A I R M A R K E T
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
ALPHALINER - Monthly Monitor 2020
DEMAND
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
GLOBAL CAPACITYIMPACT OF PASSENGER FLIGHT CANCELLATIONS GLOBALLY
Source: Seabury
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
WHAT TO EXPECT
more uncertainty…
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O C E A N M A R K E T
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
Capacity OperatingExpenseFinancial
PerformanceOutsideFactorsDemand
OCEAN MARKET LEVERS
• GDP• Global Trade +/-
• Environmental• Cyber-Security• Labor• Political• Regulatory
• Carriers earnings • Rates/revenue• Operating expense• Debt to equity• Cost of capital
• Fuel• Assets• Terminals• Labor• Technology
• Existing fleet• New • Scrapped• Charter market • Growth +/-
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C O N S O L I D A T I O N3 alliances, 9 global carriers
Source: Alphaliner
CMA CGM & APLCosco & OOCLEvergreen
Current Alliances April 2020: HMM Joins THE Alliance
Alliance Capacities:
5.09 Million TEU
7.73 Million TEU
7.93 Million TEU
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
ALPHALINER - Monthly Monitor 2020
DEMAND
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
ALPHALINER - Monthly Monitor 2020
DEMAND
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
CAPACITY
ALPHALINER - Monthly Monitor and Newsletter 2020
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
SUPPLY - CAPACITY
ALPHALINER –Monthly- 2020
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
RatesFall
Capacity Reduced Demand
Increased
Rates Increase
Capacity Increased Demand
Decreased
Capacity Surplus
Capacity Shortage
SUPPLY & DEMAND
CYCLE
WHERE ARE WE NOW?
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D O M E S T I C M A R K E T
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S T A T E O F T R U C K I N G
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
STATE OF WAREHOUSING & DRY VAN
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F U T U R E O U T L O O K & T R E N D S
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High Enthusiasm
High Customer
Value
Low Enthusiasm
Low Customer Value
Assess Leverage Lead
BlockchainMachineLearning
AI
RPAAlgorithms
BigDataVirtual
RealityMobile
IoTCloudSocial
AnalyticsCyber-
SecurityChatbots
API
One GlobalSystemDigital
Documents
DigitalTwin
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TECHNOLOGY
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
A G I L I T Y A S C O M P E T I T I V E A D V A N T A G E
FlexibilityThe ability to respond to disruptions• Design for postponement• Propagate visibility across the supply chain
AdaptabilityThe ability to react and exploit opportunities• Implementing new business models or
products• Identify and evaluate alternate supply
sources
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
S U P P L Y C H A I N H E A L T H C H E C K
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
P A C E O F V I S I B I L I T Y
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Property of Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. and its subsidiaries. Reproduction by written authorization only.
S I G N A L I N T H E N O I S E
• Never waste a good crisis – heed lessons left and right
• Ensure you have the right alignment with partners• Rates will eventually (2021) stabilize but expect
them to remain higher as capacity remains tight across all modes
• Space and Flexibility is the name of the game, to manage through the Supply/Demand imbalance
• Ocean carriers financials will improve (much needed) but still remain unstable
• Transit times will be volatile – Carrier, terminals, truckers, chassis, space all contribute
• Possible consolidation across all sectors• Just in Case vs. Just in Time• Tariffs and Politics will continue to disrupt
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Q U E S T I O N S ?
Questions ?
Michael MooneyRegional Vice President
Mobile: +1 206-683-2865Email: [email protected]
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E X P E D I T O R S . C O M
Questions?
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