Local Manufacturing Potential for CSP Projects in...
Transcript of Local Manufacturing Potential for CSP Projects in...
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D r . W o l f g a n g E i c h h a m m e r, D r . G a b r i e l M o r i n
Local Manufactur ing Potent ia l for CSP Pro jects in MENA
Context of the study and CSP value chain: components, market structure and trends
http://www.trec-uk.org.uk/resources/pictures/stills4.html http://www.flickr.com/photos/worldbank/
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• High potential for application of the technology exists in MENA itself• In difference to other renewable energy technologies, such as photovoltaic or
wind energy, the CSP potential is more limited in many of the major developed countries
• A CSP industry in MENA could serve not only the regional market but also existing markets in Southern Europe, the USA and elsewhere
• Examples of emerging wind industries in India and China demonstrate the positive effects that manufacturing of innovative renewable energy technologies can have on the respective economies
MENA could become home to a new, high potential industry in a region with large solar energy resources and benefit from the associated job- and wealth creation
Mot ivat ion: The Need for a CSP Home Bas is in MENA
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Context o f the Study
Countries in focus of the study: Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan Realized or submitted CSP-projects to CTF
1• Provide an overview of manufacturing processes,
costs and cost reduction potential for key CSP components
2• Assess the potential for a CSP manufacturing
industry in the MENA region
3• Establish roadmaps and an action plan for the
development of local CSP manufacturing in MENA
4• Analyze potential economic benefits of a CSP
component manufacturing industry in MENA
Main objectives of the study:
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CSP Technolog ies
Left: Parabolic Trough collector: 64 MWel power plant Nevada Solar One; dimensions: collector aperture width 5 m (Morin, 2010)
Linear Fresnel Collector: 1.4 MWel plant PE1 in Murcia, Spain; dimensions: receiver height above mirror field: 7 m (Novatec, 2010)
Solar Tower plant PS10, 11 MWel in Seville, Spain (Abgengoa, 2010)
Dish Stirling prototype plants of 10 kWel each in Almería, Spain; diameter 8.5m (DLR, 2010)
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CSP Market Shares and Development
Parabolic Trough today over 90% market share, today
Other CSP Technologies gaining market shares
20 GW installed CSP capacity by 2020 is feasible
BUT: Reliable financial and political framework needed !
(Συν Ωινδ Ενεργψ, 2010)
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The CSP Value-chain – Oppor tun i t ies for Local Indust r ies
ProjectDevelopment Materials Components
PlantEngineering &Const ruct ion
Operat ion Dist ribut ion
Finance & Ownership
Research & Development
Polit ical Inst itut ions
Concept Engineering
Geographical Determinat ion
Determinat ion of general requirements
Concrete Steel Sand Glass Silver Copper Salt Other
chemicals
Mirrors Mount ing
Structure Receiver HTF Connect ion
piping Steam genera-
tor / heat exchanger
Pumps Storage
System Power Block Grid connect .
EPC-Contractor: Detailed
Engineering Procurement Construct ion
Operat ion & maintenance of the plant
Utility Transport &
dist ribut ion of elect ricit y
Corevaluechain
Elementsof thecorevaluechain
Essent ialpartners
ProjectDevelopment Materials Components
PlantEngineering &Const ruct ion
Operat ion Dist ribut ion
Finance & Ownership
Research & Development
Polit ical Inst itut ions
Concept Engineering
Geographical Determinat ion
Determinat ion of general requirements
Concrete Steel Sand Glass Silver Copper Salt Other
chemicals
Mirrors Mount ing
Structure Receiver HTF Connect ion
piping Steam genera-
tor / heat exchanger
Pumps Storage
System Power Block Grid connect .
EPC-Contractor: Detailed
Engineering Procurement Construct ion
Operat ion & maintenance of the plant
Utility Transport &
dist ribut ion of elect ricit y
Corevaluechain
Elementsof thecorevaluechain
Essent ialpartners
Analysis of the CSP value-chain:
•Identification of current market players•Review of production processes•Cost analysis / cost reduction potential•Complexity assessment for components
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Co l lec tor : Meta l Suppor t (Examples)Sample Collectors Flagsol Skal-ET 150
(e.g. Andasol I-III)Solargenix SGX-2(e.g. Nevada Solar One)
Structure Torque box design-galvanized steel
Recycled aluminum orsteel struts and geo hubs
kg/m² per aperture area
~ 18.5 kg/m² steel ~ 11-12 kg/m² aluminum
Material quality 85% S235JRG214% S355JRG21% X5CrNi 19-10
6061 T6 aluminum(70-80% recycled content)
Materials used Equal angles (60%),Plates (10%),Square Tubes (15%),Rods, mills, profiles and fasteners (15%)
Similar parts
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Va lue Chain in CSP – Par t 1
Components
Valu
e ch
ain
Mirrors Receiver
Flabeg Gmbh Guardian Ind. Rioglass Solar Saint -Gobain Pilkington Glaston 3M Alanod Glasstech Inc. Ref lec Tech HEROGlas Cristaleria
Espagnola SA
Schot t Solar AG Siemens
(Solel Solar Sys)
Mount ing Structure
Abengoa Flagsol Acciona Grupo Sener Siemens Sky Fuel Inc Albiasa Alcoa Areva (Ausra)
Com
pani
es
EPC
EPC
AbengoaSolar
Flagsol Duro
Felguera Samca Sky Fuel Albiasa Solar Abener Orascom MAN
Ferrostaal ACS Cobra
ProjectDevelop. Materials
Concept Engineering
Raw & Semi-f inished
Solar Millennium
Abengoa Solar Aries Ibereolica Torresol/
Masdar Novatec Abengoa Epuron Fichtner Brightsource eSolar St irling Energy
Systems (SES) M+W Zander
Pilkington ThyssenKrupp Heidelberg
Cement Hydro Bert ram
Heatec Haifa
Chemicals SQM BASF Linde
Components
Valu
e ch
ain
Mirrors Receiver
Flabeg Gmbh Guardian Ind. Rioglass Solar Saint -Gobain Pilkington Glaston 3M Alanod Glasstech Inc. Ref lec Tech HEROGlas Cristaleria
Espagnola SA
Schot t Solar AG Siemens
(Solel Solar Sys)
Mount ing Structure
Abengoa Flagsol Acciona Grupo Sener Siemens Sky Fuel Inc Albiasa Alcoa Areva (Ausra)
Com
pani
es
EPC
EPC
AbengoaSolar
Flagsol Duro
Felguera Samca Sky Fuel Albiasa Solar Abener Orascom MAN
Ferrostaal ACS Cobra
ProjectDevelop. Materials
Concept Engineering
Raw & Semi-f inished
Solar Millennium
Abengoa Solar Aries Ibereolica Torresol/
Masdar Novatec Abengoa Epuron Fichtner Brightsource eSolar St irling Energy
Systems (SES) M+W Zander
Pilkington ThyssenKrupp Heidelberg
Cement Hydro Bert ram
Heatec Haifa
Chemicals SQM BASF Linde
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Va lue Chain in CSP – Par t 2
Storage System
Power Block& pumps
Grid Connect ionHTF
Dow Chemicals Solut ia Linde BASF
Steam Generator/
Heat Exchanger
Connect ing Piping
Abengoa Bharat Heavy
Elect rical Ltd. Acciona ACS Cobra Bilf ingerBerger Käfer
Siemens MAN Turbo GE Power
Components
Sener MAN Turbo Kraf tanlagen
München Siemens GE Power Alstom ABB
MAN Ferrostaal Siemens Abengoa Solar ABB
Valu
e ch
ain
Com
pani
es
Storage System
Power Block& pumps
Grid Connect ionHTF
Dow Chemicals Solut ia Linde BASF
Steam Generator/
Heat Exchanger
Connect ing Piping
Abengoa Bharat Heavy
Elect rical Ltd. Acciona ACS Cobra Bilf ingerBerger Käfer
Siemens MAN Turbo GE Power
Components
Sener MAN Turbo Kraf tanlagen
München Siemens GE Power Alstom ABB
MAN Ferrostaal Siemens Abengoa Solar ABB
Valu
e ch
ain
Com
pani
es
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Va lue Chain in CSP – Par t 3
Operat ion Dist ribut ion
Operat ion&Maintenance
Ut ility / TransportDist ribut ion
Va
lue
chai
nCo
mpa
nies
Nevada Solar Iberdrola Acciona ACS Cobra Abengoa Flagsol MAN
Ferrostaal FPL Energy
APS Endesa
Finance &Ownership
Research &Development
Polit icalInst itut ions
Local banks Internat ional
banks World Bank African
Development Bank
Investors Public
inst itut ions
Plataforma Solar de Almeria
DLR Fraunhofer Ciemat NREL Sandia Nat ional
Laboratory
Local governments
Esse
ntia
l par
tner
s
Operat ion Dist ribut ion
Operat ion&Maintenance
Ut ility / TransportDist ribut ion
Va
lue
chai
nCo
mpa
nies
Nevada Solar Iberdrola Acciona ACS Cobra Abengoa Flagsol MAN
Ferrostaal FPL Energy
APS Endesa
Finance &Ownership
Research &Development
Polit icalInst itut ions
Local banks Internat ional
banks World Bank African
Development Bank
Investors Public
inst itut ions
Plataforma Solar de Almeria
DLR Fraunhofer Ciemat NREL Sandia Nat ional
Laboratory
Local governments
Esse
ntia
l par
tner
s
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Conc lus ion : CSP Componen ts P roduc t i on in MENA
Near-term: Low-Investment and Low-Complexity Activities in MENA:
Collector Assembly
Collector Installations
Civil: Groundworks, Collector Foundations, Buildings, Infrastructure
⇒ MENA manufacturing of approximately 17% of plant invest (+ optional EPC, Proj. Management)
If sustainable MENA-CSP-Markets are given:
More investment-intensive and more complex CSP-Activities in MENA:
Mirror Production
Receiver Production
Other specialized components and processes
⇒ Local Value Creation: up to 80% of plant invest
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Contact:
Wolfgang EichhammerDeputy Head Competence Centre Energy Policy and Energy Systems Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI Breslauer Strasse 48 | 76139 Karlsruhe | Germany
Phone +49 721 6809-158 | Fax +49 721 6809-272 [email protected] http://www.isi.fraunhofer.de
Thank you for your At tent ion!
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Potent ia l o f the CSP Technology
Schott AG: Memorandum zur solarthermischen Kraftwerkstechnologie , 2006
Potential for solar thermal power generation worldwide
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Current CSP Pro ject Development
ATKearney: Solar Thermal Electricity 2025, Report June 2010
Existing and planned solar thermal electricity capacity through 2015
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Current CSP projects classified by applied technology [in MW capacity]
CSP Pro ject Development
Operational Construction Planningphase
Tower 44 17 1603
Parabolic 778 1400 8144
Fresnel 9 30 134
Dish & Stirling 2 1 2247
Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010CSP projects by country (operating, under construction and in planning phase)
Sun & Wind Energy 6/2010
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Work ing Pr inc ip le o f Parabol ic Trough Power Plant(Andasol Example)
(Σολαρµιλλεννιυµ, 2009)
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Va lue Chain in CSP - Overv iewComponents
Valu
e ch
ain
Mirrors Receiver
Mount ing Structure
EPC
EPC
ProjectDevelop. Materials
Concept Engineering
Raw & Semi-f inished
Components
Valu
e ch
ain
Mirrors Receiver
Mount ing Structure
EPC
EPC
ProjectDevelop. Materials
Concept Engineering
Raw & Semi-f inished
Storage System
Power Block& pumps
Grid Connect ionHTF
Steam Generator/
Heat Exchanger
Connect ing Piping
Components
Valu
e ch
ain
Storage System
Power Block& pumps
Grid Connect ionHTF
Steam Generator/
Heat Exchanger
Connect ing Piping
Components
Valu
e ch
ain
Operat ion Dist ribut ion
Operat ion&Maintenance
Ut ility / TransportDist ribut ion
Va
lue
chai
npa
nies
Nevada Solar Iberdrola Acciona ACS Cobra Abengoa
APS Endesa
Finance &Ownership
Research &Development
Polit icalInst itut ions
Local banks Internat ional
banks World Bank African
Development Bank
Investors
Plataforma Solar de Almeria
DLR Fraunhofer Ciemat NREL Sandia Nat ional
L b t
Local governments
Esse
ntia
l par
tner
s
Operat ion Dist ribut ion
Operat ion&Maintenance
Ut ility / TransportDist ribut ion
Va
lue
chai
npa
nies
Nevada Solar Iberdrola Acciona ACS Cobra Abengoa
APS Endesa
Finance &Ownership
Research &Development
Polit icalInst itut ions
Local banks Internat ional
banks World Bank African
Development Bank
Investors
Plataforma Solar de Almeria
DLR Fraunhofer Ciemat NREL Sandia Nat ional
L b t
Local governments
Esse
ntia
l par
tner
s
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Assessment of potential for MENA industries to provide CSP components
Identification of potential players
Identification of technical & economic barriers for a CSP industry in MENA
2. Assessment o f Indust ry Capabi l i t ies for CSP Components and Serv ices
• Industry surveys in CSP relevant sectors (MENA and globally)- Steel production/transformation- Float glass/mirror production- Electronic industry- Service providers (EPC)
Industrial capability
• Collection of complementary data: patent/foreign trade analyses in CSP relevant industrial sectors
Sectoralcompetitive-
ness
• Surveys at public and private institutions & organizations relevant for CSP development
Status of institutional framework
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3 . Development o f Roadmaps & Act ion Plan for CSP Local Manufactur ing in MENA
• Based on previous status quo analysis:• Value chain assessment• Industry surveys
• Presentation of potential development paths for most relevant CSP manufacturing industries:
• Future goals • Intermediate milestones
• Suggestions for actions on different levels to reach the milestones with regard to three market-growth scenarios:
• Optimistic (5GW until 2020)• Medium (1GW until 2020)• Pessimistic (0.5 GW until 2020)
Status Quo analysis
Action plan
RoadmapsShort-Term Mid-Term Long-Term
Policy framework & market development
No production facilities for receiver tubes exist in MENA. Single basic sub-components could potentially be supplied by local companies if quality standards can be met.
Business development
Technology development
All receiver tubes for Parabolic Trough plants in MENA are imported from abroad
No companies in or close to the field of CSP receiver tube production in MENA
CSP market development in MENA uncertain, small number of projects in pipeline
Depending on the CSP market development, one or two large receiver factories in MENA supply the whole region.
Region-wide clear political goals in terms of industrial- & foreign investment policy
Continuous & stable growth of CSP market in MENA
Focused support for development of MENA CSP receiver industry
Status Quo Overall Goal
No national targets for development of CSP receiver branch
No intellectual property related to CSP receivers exists in MENA. High dependency on a small number of market leaders
Future registration of patents in the field of CSP receiver technolo-gy. Growing indepen-dence of MENA receiver companies.
Foundation of MENA companies producing CSP receiver tubes under license or with internat. cooperation
New production facilities for CSP receivers are set up & necessary skills transferred
Universities and other research facilities lay focus on fundamental research in CSP receiver technologies
Minimum of 2-4GW added CSP capacity in MENA per year
Growing number of CSP projects in pipeline
Coordinated national strategies for industrial development and energy targets defined
Superordinateinstitutions are established
Facilitation of foreign direct investments
Definition of long-term objectives for CSP development in MENA
Large number of R&D competence clusters created
Institutional responsibilities and budgetary powers partly fragmented
Intense trade of CSP receivers in the MENA region
Favorable tax rates and local content obligations exist for CSP receivers
Growing level of confidence in CSP technology
Long-term, stable policy framework is implemented
High level of regional integration of the CSP value chain realized in MENA
Strong R&D efforts with focus on advancements in receiver technolo-gy with regard to MENA needs and capabilities
Steel pipes for receiver tubes are sourced from local companies
Receiver tubes for all Parabolic Trough plants in MENA produced locally (by int. companies)
Growing export of CSP receivers from MENA
Receiver tubes for all Parabolic Trough plants in MENA are supplied by companies with production facilities based in MENA. Export is possible.
Growing level of expertise in MENA region
Comprehensive training of employees
Subsidiary set up by foreign company (Schott or Siemens)
Applied research on CSP receivers in ongoing CSP projects & various testing plants
Transfer of intellectual property rights
Local metal-working companies meet required quality in pipe production
Conducive techno-logical environ-ment exists for receiver technolo-gy (e.g. insights in functionality & maintenance)
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Based on market growth scenarios and regarding a reference CSP plant modeling of: • Impact on GDP• Labor impact• Impact on foreign trade
4 . Assessment o f Economic Benef i ts o f Local Manufactur ing in MENA
In Mio US$ (cumulated) 2012 2015 2020 2025 Local share by 2025
Cost reduction by 2025
Scenario A 30 193 916 1,498 25.7 % ~ 16 %
direct 20 125 571 946
indirect 10 68 344 551
Scenario B 61 465 2,163 3,495 30.6 % ~ 16 %
direct 39 251 1,167 1,959
indirect 22 213 996 1,535
Scenario C 368 2,803 14,277 45,226 56.6 % ~ 40 %
direct 206 1,403 6,999 21,675
indirect 162 1,401 7,278 23,551