Local development and climate change

adaptation in the Alps: a case study on

sustainable winter tourism in the DolomitesCarlo Giupponi, Stefano Balbi and Laura Bonzanigo

Università Ca’ Foscari di Venezia and

Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Italy

Alpine tourism in general

Maturity (�Stagnation) of Ski TourismShortening overnight stays Global competition (low costs,…)In need of trademarks (e.g. pearls of the alps)In need of innovativenessIn need of flexibility

Climate change opportunities and threats in alpine resorts

• Hotter summers will bring more people to the mountains

• Activities on fresh water may become more viable• Exit from the market of resorts at low altitudes • Snow cover variability (inter- and intra-annual)• Slope and aspect will become more determinant

for snow cover than today• Avalanches and landslides linked to ice-melting• Droughts and pressure on water resources (in

summer)

Participatory process for CCA and local development

www.netsymod.eu

Climate change scenarios

SNOW DAYS: Auronzo: current 55 A1B 20 B1 32Misurina: current 121 A1B 111 B1 113

S.Balbi

Workshop 1

• Contents:

– Setting the framework of the Project

– Cognitive maps for each strategy

– SWOT analysis for each strategy

– Card ranking exercise

Strategies

e.g. Strategy 1: spatially explicit strategies

e.g. Strategy 1: SWOT analysis

positive elements negative elements

Beauty and uniqueness of location: Tre Cime, Misuri na connection btw various resorts: insuff. But diffi cult to linksnowed guaranteed until late spring in higher slope s altitude variabilitynew cable-cars --> lengthening of skiing season environmental problem: UNESCO Tradition (from 1930s) bad hotelsless need for snow-making: cheaper 20 years behind competitorsIncentive to build better hotels and improve existing ones large capital sneededprobable increase of tourists low technological qualityalready-existing skiing resort: easier than beginning from scratch unsure outcome (increase demand??)knowledge on how to follow thi strategy impact over landscape of new structuresgeneral consensus between tourist operators bad servicesoff-pist and alpine skiing together bad hospitalitywater availability for artificial snow Somadidagood hotels no incentives/credits for invertmentwidening of territory developed (there are available spaces witin municipality) investments' low return rategrowth villages bad cooperation between operators

chalets closed little snow in Auronzoreduced offer capacity in Veneto:

Potential link with neighbours many and much better developed competitorsrelatively easy to access (motorway,…) climate and demographic change --> new touristscompetitors as incentives for improvement environmental and landscape impact of new infrastructuretourist demand all year round traditional skiing market no longer so profitable a sit once wasgrowing hotel numbers little snow in lower area (Auronzo)classic tourist produce: skiing world economic crisislarger range of activities to promote significant financial investment (high risk)SPA Pusteria

skiinng infrastructure with low environmental impact in beautiful areas (3 cime) norms and environmental programsLake: walks

inte

rnal

fact

ors

exte

rnal

fact

ors

STRATEGY 1: SKI INTENSIVE

Card ranking for building the destination portfolio

S.Balbi

Workshop 2

Contents:� Criteria weighting � Explaining the model behind � Demonstration of the DSS tool� Group decision � Discussing the results around

the table

the DSS tool

� The ClimAlpTour e-tool belongs to the broad category of DSS (Decision Supporting System) software tools aimed at facilitating the management of participatory decision –making processes :

CC impacts

on tourism

Adaptation

strategiesExploration &

assessment

Preferred

options

DSS

e-tool

Study

case

Data acquisition & processing,

Scenario Analysis

and Modelling

Indicators,

Criteria

Multi-Criteria Analysis

Group Decision Making

Stakeholder workshops

User interface

User interface

Modelling

Indicators

User interface

Analysis Matrix &Value Functions

Weighting &Ranking

Final results

Beyond Ski Strategy

ClimAlpTour legacy in Auronzo

• People for the first time around the same table talking about their future (in the long-term)

• Awareness raising on climatic issues • Coupling of economic development with knowledge on the

changing environment: mainstreaming CC into tourism planning

• Contribution of local knowledge • Emergence of unexpected results• Constructive discussion in front of objective data• Cohesion building exercise

Thank you!

carlo.giupponi@cmcc.it

http://virgo.unive.it/climalptour/

Conclusions about the methods and tools

• the NetSyMoD framework and the new version of mDSSdemonstrated their usefulness for facilitating: • Communication, public participation, and conflict

management, for future development and CCA,• Collaboration between different groups (disciplinary

experts, stakeholder, etc.)• Exploitation of multi-disciplinary qualitative and

quantitative information (in particular modelling outputs),• Exploration of future scenarios and possible adaptation

options, their sustainability and ranking, by adopting multi-criteria analysis and other quantitative and transparent methods.

Final note

The ClimAlpTour DSS-TOOL cannot provide:• “automatic” procedures and solutions,• specific modelling procedures (ad hoc disciplinary models

should be coupled with the e-tool on a case by case basis),• final decisions: it is a support tool.

ClimAlpTour DSS tool implementation

1. Climate change scenarios are downscaled/referred to the pilot areas

2. adaptation strategies are identified and their effects on relevant indicators are projected into the future by means of modelling or expert knowledge

3. indicators are treated as decision criteria and later processed by means of multi-criteria decision rules

4. at workshops stakeholders evaluate the strategies in view of climate change scenarios with the DSS tool , by attaching value functions and weights to the indicators, subsequently processed by means of aggregative decision rules

5. the various rankings produced by stakeholders are processed with group decision making procedures to identify possible conflicts and compromises

6. other interested actors could analyse strategies by downloading the e-tool from project web site