Local authority collective agency
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Transcript of Local authority collective agency
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Commercial expertise driving value and efficiency in local public services
Local authority collective agency
Mark Luntley
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Today
• Why
• What we’ve done to date
• Headline conclusions
• Our planned next steps
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Why
• PWLB
• International lessons
• Stimulate market/reduce costs
• More than money
• Self confident sector
• Small and large councils
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Steps
• Specialist advisors
• Political oversight
• Technical reference
• City discussions
• Sector consultation
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Approach
• 5 case model
• Different options considered
• Detailed evaluation
• Cross guarantees
• Capitalisation
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Vision
• AAA/Aaa
• Values:
• Straightforward
• Transparent
• Collective
• Efficient
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Drivers
• Stimulate market
• Educate bond investors
• Support principles of prudential borrowing
• Looking outwards to other nations
• An alternative to PWLB – but mixed economy
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International models
KBN Kommunalbanken KommuneKredit
Kommuninvest I Sverige AB
Municipality Finance PLC
Municipal Finance Authority of British Columbia
Domicile Norway Denmark Sweden Finland Canada
Establishment 1926 1898 1986 1989/1993 1970
Rating (M/S/F) Aaa/AAA/NR Aaa/AAA/NR Aaa/AAA/NR Aaa/AAA/NR Aaa/AAA/AAA
Guarantee Structure
Letter of support from 100% owner Norwegian Govt
Joint and several guarantee from local and regional Govts
Joint and several guarantee from local and regional Govts
Municipalities on a joint basis through Municipal Guarantee Board
Joint and several guarantee from municipalities
Competition Limited Very Limited Limited Limited Some direct issuance
Default None None None None None
S&P Adjusted Equity / Assets
1.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.9% n/a
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Developing a model
• Capitalisation not cross guarantees
• Uplift on individual ratings
• Asset quality
• Liquidity
• Rules
• Diversity of councils
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Headline conclusions
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 5 10 15 20 25
Undeliverable
High cost of borrowing
Model 1: Joint guarantees
Model 2: Risk capital
Model 3: Pass-through
Best
High cost and good delivery
Worst
Low cost and poor delivery
Low cost of borrowing
Deliverable
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Headline conclusions
• 97% of sample councils interested “in principle”
• AAA/Aaa possible
• Lend at 0.7% to 0.8% above gilts
• @£2.5m/ < two years to establish
• Between £2m and £4m a year to operate (depending on complexity)
• 25% market share
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LGCA structure
OperationalSupport
Bond Proceeds
Debt Service
Subordinated Debt Proceeds
Debt Service
100% Shareholder
100% Shareholder
Service fee
Loans
Shareholders (Participating Local Authorities and other key stakeholders)
LGCA Limited
LGCA Finance Plc LGCA Operations LimitedBond Investors
Subordinated Debt Providers
Local Authority Borrowers
DebtService
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Bond prices
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Sp
read
to in
terp
ola
ted
Gilt
(b
ps)
Maturity (years)
PWLB
Model 1 (AAA)
Model 2 (AAA)
Model 3 (AA)
Network Rail (Aaa/AAA)
Temasek (Aaa/AAA)
GLA (AA+)
TfL (Aa1/AA+)
KFW (Aaa/AAA)
THFC (A+)
NIB (Aaa/AAA)
Wellcome Trust (Aaa/AAA)
Johnson & Johnson (Aaa/AAA)
Procter & Gamble (Aa3/AA-)
Wal-Mart (Aa2/AA)
Pric
ing
in
dic
atio
nQ
uasi
-go
vern
.S
SA
sH
ighl
y ra
ted
co
rpo
rate
s
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Risks – set-up
• Government policy changes
• City
• Lack of sector interest (or waiting for another to lead)
• Set-up costs
• Alternatives emerge
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Risks - operational
• Changes in prudential code
• Reduced demand
• Prudential code changes
• PWLB changes
• Actions of individual council(s)
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What now?
• LGA Exec agreed (Jan ‘12)
• Six months:
• Detailed consultation on proposals
• Determine sector/investor interest
• Liaison with Government
• OJEU procurement
• Detail of arrangements
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Aim – August 2012
• Lead councils + funding in place
• Shadow board
• Agreement on shape of agency
• Clear steer from government
• Advisors identified
• Rating?