Livestock products: Domestic and international market a...

Livestock products: Domestic and international market – a view of 2015

Alina ZharkoAssociation “Ukrainian agribusiness club”

© Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79


Dairy products

Production of milk and dairy products in Ukraine

Dairy products foreign trade

Results of 2014 and expectations of the dairy industry development in 2015

Global milk market trends

Main exporters and importers of dairy products

The EU market and other alternative markets for dairy products

Meat and meat products

Production of cattle meat

Production of pork

Production of poultry meat

Meat and meat products foreign trade

Results of 2014 and expectations of livestock industry development in 2015

The EU meat market

NICHE PRODUCTS


Milk

Production of milk in Ukraine, mln. t.


0,00

1,00

2,00

3,00

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

2,25 2,54 2,58 2,68 2,74

Agricultural enterprises

1,00

2,00

3,00

4,00

5,00

6,00

7,00

8,00

9,00

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

8,84 8,85 8,90 8,72 8,20

Households

↓2,0 % ↓6,0 %

*Forecast

↑3,9 % ↑2,2 %

Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine

Production of dairy products,January-October 2013, 2014


2013 2014 2014 to 2013

Liquid milk processed, thous. t 795,2 915,0 115%

Milk for infant nutrition, thous. t 10,2 11,4 112%

Skimmed milk powder 35,5 50,5 142%

Whole milk powder, thous. t 11,4 10,6 93%

Butter, thous. t 78,2 100,5 129%

Cheese, thous. t 140,3 107,1 76%

Milk and cream, concentrated, thous. t 47,6 43,3 91%

Yoghurt and other fermented products, thous. t 434,6 399,8 92%


Milk products foreign tradeJanuary-October 2013, 2014


0

50

100

150

200

Beef Pork Poultry

24

5

146

238

180

Export, thous. t

2013

2014*

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

Beef Pork Poultry

3,7

15071

2,0

3550

Import, thous. t

2013

2014*

Results of 2014


The loss of the Russian market

Revenue from dairy products export to Russia in 2014 amounted to $119 mln., and in 2013 - $374 mln.

Reorientation from cheese production to the production of butter and dried milk

Development of the tendency towards reducing of cow population

Increasing of productivity of cows due to improved technology of cattle feeding and management

The inspection of the dairy industry by the European Union

Reducing of domestic consumption of milk and dairy products

The outflow of raw milk to Crimea, Belarus and Transdniestria

Expectations of the dairy industry of Ukrainein 2015


Reorientation in the foreign trade of dairy products: development of existed and search for new sales markets

A further reduction in cow population

Increased competition in the dairy market

Prices for raw milk will be under pressure

Entry of Ukrainian products to the EU market

Global milk market trends


Increasing of milk production: European Union - 7%, New Zealand - 13%, USA - 3% compared to the previous year

The changes in the geography of world trade as a result of Russian sanctions

Increasing of the requirements for dairy products quality

Prices of milk and dairy products show a downward trend

In 2015 the quota for milk production in the EU will be abolished

Global exporters of dairy products


Source: milknet.ru

59%21%

11%

6% 3%

Whole milk powder

New Zealand

EU

Argentina

Australia

Other

62%17%

9%

6% 4% 2%

Butter

New Zealand

EU

USA

Australia

Argentina

India

Other

46%

15%

17%

11%

4%5%

Cheese

EU

USA

New Zealand

Australia

Argentina

Ukraine

Other

34%

29%

24%

9%

0% 4%Skimmed milk powder

EU

USA

New Zealand

Australia

India

Other

Global importers of dairy products


Source: milknet.ru

42%

27%

7%

7%3%

4% 4%7%

Whole milk powder

China

Algeria

Brazil

Indonesia

Russia

Philippines

Taiwan

43%

19%

13%

7%

7%4%

2% 5%Butter

Russia

EU

Mexico

Australia

Taiwan

USA

Ukraine

32%

20%10%7%

7%

7%

7%

11%

Cheese

Russia

Japan

USA

Mexico

Korea

Australia

EU

20%

20%

13%7%

13%

12%

15%

Skimmed milk powder

Mexico

Indonesia

China

Russia

Algeria

Philippines

Other

Activation of dairy products trade with Russian Federation

© Український клуб аграрного бізнесу, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79

EU Dairy market, 2013

Production Export Import self-sufficiency, %

Fresh dairy products(drinking milk, cream, acidified milk, buttermilk and milk-based drinks), thous. t

46 495 578 28 101,2%

Dried skimmed milk, thous. t1 092 407 5

158,3

Dried whole milk, thous. t698 374 3

217,2%

Butter, thous. t2 182 116 23

104,5%

Cheese, thous. t 9 703 787 75

107,9%

Cow population 23,4 mlnMilk production 153,4 mln. tMilk processing 141,7 mln. t

ec.europa.eu; clal.it


Main importers of milk products to EU markets

© Украинский клуб аграрного бизнеса, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79

Dried skimmed milk Norway – 62 %USA – 22 %Algeria -10 %Switzerland, Island, Syria, New Zealand

Butter New Zealand– 86 %USA – 8 %Switzerland – 5 %

Australia, Island, Canada

Cheese Switzerland – 68 %New Zealand– 16%

Australia, Norway, USA, Canada, Island

ec.europa.eu

Alternative markets for Ukrainian dairy products


Development of existing markets:

KazakhstanMoldovaGeorgiaAzerbaijanArmenia

Mastering of basic import markets:

ChinaAlgeriaJapan

The development of markets in the reorientation of exporters:

Saudi ArabiaSouth AfricaIndonesiaVietnamPhilippinesTaiwan

China Import of dairy products


Import, thous. t 2012

Import, thous. t 2013

Main exporters

Packaged drinking milk 80 161Germany - 47%

New Zealand - 14.5%Australia - 13.5%

France, USA, Poland

Dried milk for infant nutrition (Infant formula (HS 19011000)

92 123Netherlands - 20.5%

France - 18.3%New Zealand - 16%

Singapore, Denmark, Ireland

Skimmed milk powder168 235

New Zealand - 53%US -22.7%

Germany - 7%

Whole milk powder 406 619New Zealand - 91%

Australia - 2.3%Uruguay, Argentina

Butter 48 52New Zealand - 89Australia - 3.5%

France - 2.6Belgium, USA, Argentina

Cheese 39 47New Zealand - 36.2%

Australia - 23.8%USA - 21.3%

France, Italy, Denmark

www.clal.it


Meat and meat products

Production of beef and veal, thous. t


Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine*Forecas

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

97 97111

102 97

302 291

317

283

255

Agricultural enterprises Households

Експорт м’яса ВРХ


Beef, fresh or chilledJanuary-October 2014 - 5.5 thous. t (↓43 %)

Revenue – $20,7 mln.USA

Frozen beefJanuary-October 2014 - 12.9 thous. t (↑ 33%)

Revenue - $44.9 mln.USA

Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine

96,10%

1,80% 1,77% 0,33%

Structure revenue from exports of fresh and chilled beef

Russia Belarus Moldova Other countries

45,35%

31,87%

7,75%

15,04%

Structure of revenue from exports of frozen beef

Russia Belarus Moldova Other countries

Exports of live cattle


January-August 2014 - 16 thousand. Units (4.7 thousand tons). $ 8 mln. January-August 2013 - 3.5 thousand. Units (1.1 thousand tons). $ 3.1 mln.

Main export markets:

Azerbaijan - 76%

Syria - 12%

Libya - 7%

Russia - 4%

Barriers to exports:

Export duties in 2014 - 20%

Pork production in Ukraine, thous. t

© Український клуб аграрного бізнесу, 2014 www.ucab.ua (044) 236 20 79

*Forecast Source: State Statistic Service of Ukraine

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

305 304

362

384

403399 397

386

353339


Export of pork


January-October 2014 - 6.3 thous. t(↑in 2 times)

Revenue - $18.7 mln.


70,8%

27,3%

1,0%0,8%

Structure of revenue from exports of pork

Moldova

Russia

Other countries

Belarus

Production of poultry meat in Ukraine, thous. t



0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015*

811868

967

991

1021

184207 202 190 186


*Forecast

Exports of poultry and its by-products


January-October 2014 – 143.1 thous. t (↑21 %)

Revenue - $231.3 mln.

Poultry shipments to the EU under the quota -12.36 thous. t (January-October 2014)


20,9%

15,3%

10,9%

53,0%

Structure of revenue from exports of poultry and its by-products

Iraq

Netherlands

Kazakhstan

Other countries


Meat foreign trade

*Forecast Source: Customs statistics of Ukraine

0

50

100

150

200

Beef Pork Poultry

245

146

23 8

180

Export, thous. t

2013

2014*

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

Beef Pork Poultry

3,7

15071

2,0

3550

Import, thous. t

2013

2014*

Meat and meat products: results of 2014


The successful development of the European market by Ukrainian poultry exporters

Reduction of meat imports, especially pork

The positive trade balance of meat and by-products (10 months + $113.8 mln.)

The rapid increase in meat prices

Reducing of the demand for meat from the public

Expectations of development of Ukrainian meat industry in 2015


Increasing of production of pork and poultry

Stagnation of beef production

Increasing of the share of domestic meat on market

Activation of work on obtaining a permit for export of beef and pork

Meat Market of the European Union2013


Production Export Import self-sufficiency, %

Beef, thous. t7 531 270 304 99,6%

Pork, thous. t22 415 2233 16 111,0%

Poultry meat, thous. t12 841 1310 793 104,2%

Sheep and goat meat, thous. t958 70 200 88,1%

ec.europa.eu

The main suppliers of meat to the EU market


Beef Brazil - 44%Uruguay - 15.4%Argentina - 14.3%Australia, USA, New Zealand

Pork Switzerland - 50%Chile - 16%Serbia - 9%Norway, Thailand

Poultry meat Brazil - 63.2%Thailand - 28.1%Chile, China, Argentina, Switzerland, Israel, Ukraine

Sheep and goat meat New Zealand - 84.4%Australia - 9.3%Macedonia, Uruguay, Argentina

ec.europa.eu


NICHE PRODUCTS

Exports of honey


January-October 2014 - 27.2 thous. t ($70.9 mln.)January-October 2013 - 16.7 thous. t ($40.6 mln.)

Main export markets:Germany - 34.5%USA - 23.2Poland - 17.7%Turkey, Spain, Italy, Lithuania, Canada

Quota for duty-free exports to the EU - 5 thous. t

Джерело: Митна статистика України

Export of niche animal products,January-October 2014


Meat of rabbit - 309 kg (Panama)

Sheep and goat - 5 t(Azerbayzhan - 79%, Cyprus - 5.3%, Hong Kong - 5.3%)

What niche products have the potential to export?

+ 380 44 236 20 97 / 79

095-14-34-822

[email protected]

www.ucab.ua


Thank you for attention!

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.agribusiness.kiev.ua/

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