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Transcript of Livestock for Social Development · Technical Report on Global Dairy Farm Numbers ... India...
Rome, Action Network MeetingMarch 8th, 2018
Ernesto Reyes
Livestock for Social Development
1
Livestock for Social Development 2
15:00 – 15:10 Introduction
15:15 – 15:45 Reporting current projects Prospective paper - Dairy and Poverty Reduction Technical Report on Global Dairy Farm Numbers Dairy Impact Methodology Project proposal on Dairy for Social Development
15:45 – 16:00 Coffee Break
16:00 – 16:45 Working plan discussion Concept areas to cover Other sector’ working groups Defining coordination framework
16:45 – 17:00 Case studies proposal (pastoralists)
17:00 – 17:30 Other
Agenda to develop
Livestock for Social Development 3
15:00 – 15:10 Introduction Agenda to develop
Livestock for Social Development 4
It has been agreed that the initial focus of this ActionNetwork will be on dairy (cows and buffaloes) to startwith and motivate others livestock groups
ANLivestock For Social
Development
01
Background
02
Evidence
04
ConceptualFramework
03
Social
AssesmentImpact
05
What isNext
Livestock for Social Development 5
Livestock for Social Development 6
ANLivestock For Social
Development
01
Background
02
Evidence
04
ConceptualFramework
03
Social
AssesmentImpact
05
What isNext
Livestock stakeholders are unable to consistently measure the value of livestock to social development
RATIONALE
Little and incomplete information on the number of people that depend on livestock for their livelihoods
No consistent methodology to assess the socioeconomic benefits derived from livestock activities
Opportunities that livestock provides to contribute to social development remain untapped
INSTITUTIONS
LIVESTOCK INFORMATION, SECTOR ANALYSIS AND POLICY BRANCH
DAIRY DEVELOPMENT PILLAR
IFCN DAIRY NETWORK
WORKING AREAS Evidence
Social Impact Assessment
Conceptual framework
7Livestock for Social Development
AN
01
Background
02
is
CASE STUDIES
REPORTSTechnical report on Global Dairy Farm NumbersProspective paper on Dairyand Poverty Reduction
12
8Livestock for Social Development
Livestock For Social
Development
02
Evidence
03
Social
AssesmentImpact
CASE STUDIES
REPORTS
Livestock For Social
Development
02
Evidence
03
Social
AssesmentImpact
CASE STUDIES
REPORTS
10Livestock for Social Development
Livestock For Social
Development
02
Evidence
03
Social
AssesmentImpact
Conforming taskforce group
DIM prototype
Workshop for guidingDairy Impact
Methodology (DIM)
04
Framework
03
Social
AssesmentImpact
Livestock for Social Development 11
SCOPE
CONTENT LINES
There is a need to define the scope and working areas of the ActionNetwork. This has to be discussed in the following A.N. meetings
Livestock for Social Development 12
ANLivestock For Social
Development
04
ConceptualFramework
AssesmentImpact
05
Next
PROJECT PROPOSAL TO POTENTIAL DONORS3-4 years proposal for delivering evidence and testing DIM
in several countries
WORKSHOP FOR DEFINING SCOPE AND CONTENT LINES
WORKSHOP FOR GUIDING DAIRY IMPACT METHODOLOGY (DIM)
CASE STUDY ON PASTORALISM(Proposal – others are welcome)
Livestock for Social Development 13
15:00 – 15:10 Introduction
15:15 – 15:45 Reporting current projects Prospective paper - Dairy and Poverty Reduction Technical Report on Global Dairy Farm Numbers Dairy Impact Methodology Project proposal on Dairy for Social Development
15:45 – 16:00 Coffee Break
Agenda to develop
Livestock for Social Development 14
Dairy and Poverty Reduction Prospective paper
Livestock for Social Development 15
AIM: To provide robust evidence of the impacts of the dairy sector and its development on social and economic conditions
Impact on……
Food consumption
Income
Enhanced Productivity (Milk Marketing on Income)
Expenditure
Employment
OBJECTIVE: Quantitative and robust information on impacts of dairy development on ‘livelihoods’ as potential tool to support achievement of SDG1
APPROACH: Systematic literature review : 5 literature databases, 6
search strings
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Databases & Search Terms
Databases
o Ingentaconnect
o Google Scholar
o Repec
o Web of Science
o Jstor
Search strings
o Dairy, poverty
o Milk production, poverty
o Cow, poverty
o Dairy, income
o Dairy, resilience
o Dairy, economic impact
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
o A systematic literature search was conducted to identify studies providing:
• Quantitative information on the potential impacts of dairying on poverty reduction
• Socio-economic development
To maximize the validity of causal inference
Only randomised controlled trials and observational studies with a comparison group, were included in the group of studies used for the quantitative assessment of the impact of dairying on household welfare
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Quantified Impacts
o Direct effects• Increase in food security, income, expenditure, etc. of dairy
households [16, vast majority of papers]
• Salaried on-farm employment [2 papers]
o Indirect effects• Off-farm employment generation in dairy and associated industries
(up-, down- & ‘cross’-stream linkages) [2 papers covering 4 countries]
o Induced effects• Impacts of expenditure of income earned in the ‘direct’ and ‘indirect’
activities and ‘value added’ [5 papers all from North America]
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Direct HH Effects of Dairy Cow (DC)
Dairycow
Milk
Manure
Offspring
Nutrition
Crops
Sale / income
Investment
Off-farm
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
DC Effect on Food Consumption
* p<0.1 ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01; nc not calculated
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
DC Effect on Income
* p<0.1 ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01; nc not calculated
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Effect of Enhanced DC Productivity / Milk Marketing on Income
IM = improved management; * p<0.1 ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01; nc not calculated
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
DC Effect on Expenditure
** p<0.05
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
DC Impact on Crop Yields and On-Farm Employment
* p<0.1 ** p<0.05; *** p<0.01; nc not calculated
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Post-harvest Employment Generated by 1,000 l Milk Traded
1 Dudhia, 2 Gowala, 3 AratdarSource: Assam, India – Kumar et al. 2010; Bangladesh, Ghana and Kenya - Omore et al. 2005
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Dairy Employment (FTE Jobs)Generation (USA & Canada)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Induced
Indirect
Direct
CAL COL VIR WAS CAN
Induced + indirect260
64
,80
0
2,3
00
7,9
00
12
,20
0
87
,70
0
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Food consumption
Income
Enhanced Productivity (Milk Marketing on Income)
Expenditure
Employment
Preliminary conclusions (what is the evidence telling us)
Considerable heterogeneity in study designs, assessed impacts and respective metrics
Remarkable consistency in reported outcomes, which are:
Always positive
Nearly always statistically significant
Sizeable (in most cases >20% improvements)
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Preliminary conclusions (what is the evidence telling us)
. All studies report a substantial increase in household milk consumption (from a very low base).
. Studies found significant positive impacts on household food expenditure and observed significant positive impacts on non-food expenditures.
. Studies reveal significantly higher employment generation by dairy farms. In addition to generating significantly more employment per cow, also pay higher wages.
. In ‘modern’ dairy industries, around one non-dairy farm job is created for every dairy farm job. For the processing sub-sector, employment multipliers are even higher and range from 3.3 to 9.5
Milk consumption
Household income
Employment
Employment
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Preliminary conclusions (what is the evidence telling us)
in Tanzania 5 to 6 years after its inception have found that families that barely managed to survive 6 years ago, are now considered wealthy. After 3–4 years, some farmers saved enough to improve their houses, to increase their land area under crops, and to send their children to secondary school
An additional benefit of DD programmes observed is the increased involvement of women in household decision-making.
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Preliminary conclusions (what is the evidence telling us)
the scientific literature on the economic impacts of dairying on household and community welfare provides strong evidence that in specific settings dairy development can make a significant contribution to poverty reduction
Findings (summary)
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Public availabilityElectronicallyHardcover edition
Executive summaryRationaleFindingsDiscussionConclusions and recommendationsReferencesAnnex
Dairy and Poverty Reduction – Prospective paper
Livestock for Social Development 32
Global Dairy Farm NumbersTechnical report
FAO and IFCN Dairy Network has started an initiative to align databases re. statistics in the dairy sector
The basis for this work was the Rotterdam declaration
The main output of this exercise is to calculate together the number of dairy farms by regions
Dairy farm number alignment
Strength of FAO approach
• Estimates based on goverment census on livestock farms of countries (f. 1996-2014)
• Estimation is based on share of „dairy cattle farms“ on livestock farms
• Dairy farm number availale for 7-8 world regions
Strength of IFCN approach
• Results based on dairy farm census for goverments/ dairy board or expert estimations
• Data availability for by country: no farm, now „cows“, average farm size
• Time series data for dairy farm numbers 1996 – 2016 available
General finding:
1. Dairy farm number 123 – 128 million (FAO/IFCN estimations – Cattle farms)
2. Rotterdam declaration 2016 had estimated dairy farm number (>150 million)
3. Uncertainty is how to count farms raising dairy goats/sheep/camel
Dairy Farm Numbers
Frame data for global dairy
FAO* IFCN** Deviation Reason for deviation
Farm number (in 1000)* 128 123 -4%Different approaches/
methodology
All milk production (mill t ) 792 820 4%ECM standardization by
IFCN
Cow and Buffalo production (mill t) 760 783 3%ECM standardization by
IFCN
No. cows and buffalos (in mill head) 337 367 9%Main deviations in India,
Bangladesh and China
Milk yield cows and buffalos (in t / cows /
year)2.3 2.1 -5%
Due to calculation based
on variables of milk
Production per farm (t milk/ farm) 5.9 6.4 7% Due to calculation
based on farm variable
Average farm size (animals/farm) 2.6 3.0 13% Due to calculation
based on farm variable
Consumption per Capita (kg/ capita/year) 110*** 113 3%
* production/animal number source: FAOSTAT 2014, dairy cow farms, est. 2017;
** data for 2014 ( status 10/2017 database), dairy cow and buffalo farms
*** FAO production divided by population
FAO more farms in Eastern
Europe and Central Asia
Dairy Farm Numbers
Livestock for Social Development 35
EU-28
1.3 mill
10,200
1.01
mill6,000
46,000
11,280
1.3 mill
India73.1 mill
Pakistan
7.03 mill
11,900
3.09
mill
• IFCN estimates 120 mill dairy farms worldwide in 2016
• Average farm size = 3 cows/buffalos / farm
Dairy Farm Numbers
Regional distribution
Livestock for Social Development 36
1998 – 2013 + 30 million dairy farms
2013 peak number of dairy farms 125 mill
2013 – 2016: farm number declined
5 million less (-1.44% year)
Source: IFCN Dairy Report 2017, IFCN Database
Cow and buffalo farms
Global Dairy Farm Number in mill dairy farms (cow and buffalo)
Dairy Farm Numbers
Global trends
Livestock for Social Development 37
Dairy Impact MethodologyGuidelines and tools
Dairy Impact Methodology
Rationale. The lack of systematic evidence of the contribution of the dairy sector to socially-desirable outcomes results in the potential impact of the sector being overlooked in the development discourse.
Deliverables. Guidelines to measure the role of the dairy sector to social development for assisting stakeholders to:
Assess the current contribution of the dairy sector to socially-relevant indicators;
Estimate the return of investments along the dairy value chain on socially-relevant indicators.
Dairy Impact Methodology
Define working and conceptual framework 1StepsToolsMetricsMethods
Determine basic elements to measure
Conform a working consultancy group
the selection of a core set of indicators to measure social impact
the development of a model to link input and output indicators
Testing and refining methods / models
2
3
4
5
6
Dairy Impact Methodology
Dairy Impact Analysis approach
What to measure
Current contribution of dairy
What if analysis
Return on Investment
Social ROI
Dairy Impact Methodology
Dairy impact analysis approach
What to measure
Current contribution of dairy
Milk production value
Job creation Income generation
Upstream Downstream
Dairy Impact Methodology
High Medium Low
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation
Areas
IndicatorsFormulas to
calculate indicators
Variables
used in the
formulas
Source of
collectionLevel of accuracy
Milk collection facts
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Employment
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Turnover
income
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Dairy Impact Methodology
High Medium Low
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation
Areas
IndicatorsFormulas to
calculate indicators
Variables
used in the
formulas
Source of
collectionLevel of accuracy
Milk collection facts
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Employment
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Turnover
income
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Dairy Impact Methodology
High Medium Low
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation
Areas
IndicatorsFormulas to
calculate indicators
Variables
used in the
formulas
Source of
collectionLevel of accuracy
Milk collection facts
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Employment
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Turnover
income
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Dairy Impact Methodology
High Medium Low
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation
Areas
IndicatorsFormulas to
calculate indicators
Variables
used in the
formulas
Source of
collectionLevel of accuracy
Milk collection facts
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Employment
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Turnover
income
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Dairy Impact Methodology
High Medium Low
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation
Areas
IndicatorsFormulas to
calculate indicators
Variables
used in the
formulas
Source of
collectionLevel of accuracy
Milk collection facts
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Employment
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Turnover
income
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Dairy Impact Methodology
High Medium Low
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
Variable 1
Variable 2
Variable 3
DIM - Basic prototype - Modular structure for calculation
Areas
IndicatorsFormulas to
calculate indicators
Variables
used in the
formulas
Source of
collectionLevel of accuracy
Milk collection facts
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Employment
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Turnover
income
Indicator 1 Formula 1
Indicator 2 Formula 2
Indicator 3 Formula 3
Dairy Impact Methodology
DIM prototype
Input variables
Dairy Impact Methodology
DIM prototype
Output variables
Dairy Impact Methodology
DIM prototype
Basic dairy facts
Dairy Impact Methodology
Livestock for Social Development 51
Dairy for Social Development3 years project proposal
GDP, IFCN, Global Agenda & FAO are working in a project proposal for the dairy sector
To be presented to potential donors
An outline proposal is ready
3-4 years project2M-USD
Project proposal
Dairy for Social Development
ToolsMetricsMethods
Evidence Social impact Exchange platform
Deliverables
1. Report “Dairy for social development: Evidence”
A series of prospective papers on the contribution of dairy to selected SDGs
2. Guidelines to assess the contribution of dairy to social development ToolsMetricsMethodsAssess the current contribution of dairy to socially-relevant indicators;
Estimate the return of investments in dairy along the value chain on socially-relevant indicators.
The methodology will be a public good to be available for most world’s countries. It is intended to be a useful tool to assess the social development gains attributable to investments in the dairy sector.
Dairy for Social Development - proposal
3. Report on the Role of dairy for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in 3 countries
Implementing guidelines in 3 countries, for testing and refinement, generating a report on its contribution to the SDGs
4. A Global Report on the Role of dairy for the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development
The finalised guidelines will be implemented using data from a large number world’s countries to make a strong case of the importance of the dairy sector to achieving Agenda 2030.
Deliverables
Dairy for Social Development - proposal
Livestock for Social Development 55
15:00 – 15:10 Introduction
15:15 – 15:45 Reporting current projects Prospective paper - Dairy and Poverty Reduction Technical Report on Global Dairy Farm Numbers Dairy Impact Methodology Project proposal on Dairy for Social Development
15:45 – 16:00 Coffee Break
16:00 – 16:45 Working plan discussion Concept areas to cover Other sector’ working groups Defining coordination framework
16:45 – 17:00 Case studies proposal (pastoralists)
17:00 – 17:30 Other
Agenda to develop
Livestock for Social Development 56
Action Network - Working plan
Current working areas
Evidence Methodologies and tools Concept areas
ReportsCase studies
Methodologies Guidelines Tools
What else to consider?1
Governance2
Project proposal to potential donors
3
Livestock for Social Development 57
Action Network - Working plan
• Is there any other working area to consider?
• Which areas of the social aspects are we planning to cover?• (Cultural aspects, economic impact, gender, among other, are important
areas for evaluating the livestock sector.)
• Gender (WELI index - ILRI)
• Resilience
Women’s Empowerment Livestock Index (WELI),
Livestock for Social Development 58
Action Network - Working plan
Coordination - Governance
Process to be concluded in the next MSP (Mongolia June 2018)
Institutions propose candidates
Selection process
Members of the Action Network define Allocate time for coordination In-kind contribution Lead action plan Coordinate AN Active participation in the GASL activities
Livestock for Social Development 59
Action Network - Working plan
Case studies
Global Network of SPS + Closing the Efficiency Gap
o (will include social evaluation and offer current case studies)
Pastoralism (production systems, regions and communities)
o Current proposal