Limpopo basin in Southern Africa: Local conditions and drivers (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)
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Transcript of Limpopo basin in Southern Africa: Local conditions and drivers (CPWF GD workshop, Sept 2011)
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Local conditions and drivers
Andre F van Rooyen L3ICRISAT
LIMPOPO BASIN IN SOUTHERN AFRICA
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Land use and livelihoods
• Crop-livestock systems• Main crops: Maize sorghum some legumes… a few cash crops; tobacco and cotton… vegetables
• Livestock: Cattle and goats, some goats – donkeys and horses – Poultry
• Low input systems… with low market access
• Systems are most probably highly unsustainable, with very low resilience… or high level resilience but at a low level of productivity
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Southern Africa…
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Mzingwane Catchment, Zimbabwe
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Mozambique
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South Africa
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Botswana
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Population• Population growth• Demographics
• Age of farmers• Feminization of Agriculture
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Populations trends in basin
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Women in agriculture
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Increasing number of women farmers
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Interaction at markets
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Women groups
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Increasing age of farmers in the region
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Economics
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Household economics (Zimbabwe)
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Lives
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Remittan
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Veget
ables
Crop
farm
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Casual la
bor
Man
ufactu
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Fores
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Formal e
mplo
ymen
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Alcohol
brewing
Retail s
hop
Vendin
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Fish sa
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Gold m
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Cross
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ade
Faith
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Trans
port
Per
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e o
f fa
rmer
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Rank 1 Rank 2 Rank 3
Sources of on-farm income
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Cash from livestock…
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Food Education Humanhealth
Livestock Housing Farming Clothing Ceremony
Pe
rce
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farm
ers
Cattle Goats
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Future scenarios…Feeding the livestock revolution
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Potential economic drivers
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006$0
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
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$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
South Africa Livestock Products: Imports
SADC World-SADC
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Global Climate Change
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Policies….
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The so-what about the “drivers”
• Agents of change • that can be can be positive or negative (direction of change)
• Eg. Climate change, policy, population growth, world economy, Energy demand and biofuel
and
• Conditions or factors which may reinforce or constrain these drivers• These variables may constrain/modify or affect the impact of drivers
• Eg. Education levels, access to information, market access, lack of infrastructure,
and
• Conditions or factors not playing an immediate role but which may, once it reach critical thresholds/levels become majors factors, or if included/considered may play critical roles in the outcome of specific development trajectories.
• Eg. Changing role of women in agriculture, increasing age of farmers, the potential impact of local regional markets which communities (SES) do not have access too.
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A bold look at basin development…
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Appreciate your attention.
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Women in Agriculture• Women play a major role…• Feminization of Agriculture in southern Africa• Increased for on women – but do not exclude men!
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Drivers of change and other important variables
Classic drivers Local Factors/Variables Other Factors/Variables
Global Climate Change
Existing variable climate Massive but unexploited potential in local and regional markets (South Africa)
World Economies Variable Policy environments – focus on crop production for food security but livestock offers betters pathways out of poverty
Increasing age of farmers(!) – exodus from rural areas by young educated people.
Population increases; urbanization changes in food requirements/demands – livestock revolution
Market access – both output and input markets; access to and cost of inputs
Increasing role played by women in agriculture and rural economies – feminization of agriculture in southern Africa
The sophistication of markets, consumer demands
National Policies – Agricultural investments – crop-livestock systems
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Outline of the presentation• The Biophysical Environment• Land use and livelihoods• System drivers• What are drivers?
• Environmental• Social (& political)• Economical• Science
• Future scenarios
• Some suggestions
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• 1. The conditions in the Limpopo that are relevant to change;
• 2 The drivers that affect conditions in the Limpopo and
• 3 Responses [i.e. what you see as responses to drivers and how they happened].
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