Global drivers TWGBy Simon Cook

Chiang Mai, Thailand – September 2011

Overview

• Background insights form BFPs• Rationale: Why we need to know about GDs• Framework: How to organize info

Background from the BFPs and elsewhere

The basin focal projects

• A global picture in 10 basins, LAC (2), Africa(4) and Asia(4)

• Diverse conditions– Biophysical, economic, political

• 10 teams, multi-disciplinary• Started looking for water poverty

– …ended up defining inter-related systems of water, food and development

Simple story:

• River basins provide a diversity of ecosystem services:– provisioning regulating…

• Most of these are understood individually, to a degree– Food systems, hydrology, environmental flows,

aquaculture….• Societies exploit these ES as they develop

– Appropriate, invest, exchange, ruin…• …development is influenced BY ESs …development

modifies ESs. • This represents opportunities and risks

Put another way…

1 Hydrology mattersWater: a fundamental but uncertain resource

Ganges Indus Karkheh Limpopo Mekong Niger Nile Sao Fran. Volta Yellow0

0.0002

0.0004

0.0006

0.0008

0.001

0.0012

0.0014

Dry season flow (mcm/cap)

From CSIRO analysis

Distribution varies widely

Nile• Egypt needs every

drop [from Ethiopia]

Ganges• Uncontrolled groundwater use

Photos: Fred Pearce

GW pumps in Indus-Ganges basin

Map: Sharma et al, 2009

Mekong In most places this flood would be a problem…..

To these people, flood = fish

0.00E+00 2.00E-05 4.00E-05 6.00E-05 8.00E-05 1.00E-040

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

BangladeshBoliviaBrazilBurkina FasoChinaColombiaEgypt, Arab Rep.EthiopiaIndiaThailandVietnamWorld

Water availability (km3/cap)

GNI (

$US/

cap)

But no simple link of water with poverty

-1.00E-06 2.12E-22 1.00E-06 2.00E-06 3.00E-06 4.00E-06 5.00E-060

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

BangladeshBoliviaBrazilBurkina FasoChinaColombiaEgypt, Arab Rep.EthiopiaIndiaThailandVietnamWorld

Water availability (km3/cap)

GNI (

$US/

cap)

…even in very dry areas

2 Water productivity very low over most areas

Wpr (estimated potential)

VoltaLimpopo

Nile

Niger

IGB

YR

Mekong

Sao Francisco basin2 worlds..haves and have-nots

3 Institutions are key

These farmers have access to water

Limpopo

These farmers do not …

Niger

Volta

Rural poverty

Agriculture as %

of GD

P

AndesSão Francisco

KarkhehYellow

Nile

IGBLimpopo

Mekong

Income

4 Basins move along a development trajectory

…so the major issues vary according to position [as well as ecosystem entitlements]

Rural poverty

Agr

icul

ture

as

% o

f G

DP

AndesSao Fran

KarkhehYellow

Niger

Nile

IGBLimpopo

Volta

Mekong

Agriculture onlyExtreme poverty

Low WR development (no irrigation)Complex LLH support

(Livestock and fish may dominate)

Some sectors moving Pressure on others

Agriculture ‘left behind?’Increased vulnerability

Markets very activeRural poor in pocketsImproved potential for ecosystem services

Gross National Income

Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ....Problems...

Vulnerability

Population

pressure

Industrial &

Urban

demands

Power

differences

Threats to

sustainability

Gross National Income

Agriculture contribution to GDP (%) ... Opportunities

Basic support

& Protection

Productivity

increaseSharing to

build

resilience

Basics need

Meeting urgent demand growth Emerging need

for sustainability

Increasing Role forInstitutions

Providing basicsProtecting existing

supportInvest in agricultural

basics

Big invest in agric.Resource-sharing &

protectionDeveloping pathways out

of farming

Benefit-sharing (trading)

Demand managementSupply-chain management

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,5000

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Burkina Faso

Bangladesh

Bolivia

Brazil

India

Ethiopia

Per capita GNI (US$)

Cont

ributi

on o

f agr

icultu

re to

GDP

gro

wth

(%)

Ethiopia and Burkina Faso in agricul-tural phase of development

India and Bangladesh transitioning to higher value activi-ties

Bolivia emerging slowly after decades of low growth

Brazil strong growth in the 60’s and in recent years to emerge as an industrial economy

General di-rection

A look at some of the drivers:General economic growth

Data from CIESIN

Population

Data from CIESIN

Ethiopia Kenya Niger Senegal

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

GCC Crop Impacts for African Countries PRELIMINARY RESULTS

OatsPotatoBean, CommonWheat, commonBarleyMaizeCacaoSorghum (low altitude)Perennial soybean

Countries

Crop

Loss

/Gai

n

GCCMajor new uncertainty

From Ramirez et al, 2011

From Sharma et al, 2010

Rationale: why analyze global drivers?

Rationale: why define global drivers?

3 good reasons to study GDs• Widespread influence

– helps understand global importance of what is known in basins

• GDs influence BDCs– Reduce some uncertainty

• Changes in BDCs may represent responses of regional / global importance– Is PES a ‘global’ solution?

3 good reasons not to• Uncertain relevance

– “Does it really matter to the BDC?”

• Additional complexity– Some models seem to have a

life of their own

• Difficult to combine multiple concepts– Quant/qual…mutliple

objective…

Framework: Organizing ideas about global drivers

Frameworkrelevance

Drivers Basins

Is development in Basins affected by global drivers?

Do BDCs support change of regional or global importance?

1 Analyze drivers:•Population•Economic•GCC•Political•Techno...

2 Identify responses to drivers in basins•Scenarios…•Learning processes•Changes

3 Relate to system resilience

Framework:Concepts

FrameworkImpacts and change3 places we can help

Drivers act on river basin systems

Consequences realized

Response[Innovation?]

ChangeBasin charateristics

Framework: Identifying targets Problematic behaviours

Institutions Instruments Science

Uncertainty Ignorance

Cannot manage variability

Families

Farmer organizations

Supply chain actors

Municipalities

Ministries

Norms

Regulations

Policy (e.g. food, water security)Law

Valuation

Micro-financeMicro-ins

Supply chains

Situation analysis

Scenario analysis

Technology

System analysis/design

Cognitive problems

Unable to agree

Lack of motive for change

Short-termism

Local onlyLack of capacity Can’t invest

Can’t organize

Framework: Identifying targets Problematic behaviours

Institutions Instruments Science

Uncertainty Ignorance

Cannot manage variability

Families

Farmer organizations

Supply chain actors

Municipalities

Ministries

Norms

Regulations

Policy (e.g. food, water security)Law

Valuation

Micro-financeMicro-ins

Supply chains

Situation analysis

Scenario analysis

Technology

System analysis/design

Cognitive problems

Unable to agree

Lack of motive for change

Short-termism

Local onlyLack of capacity Can’t invest

Can’t organize

Linking components to enable CHANGE

FrameworkProcess

• First ideas– Draft (very rough) – done

• Workshop (now!)– to expand concepts

• Re-draft framework, reorganize• Forum

– Present ideas to a broader audience• Re-draft framework

– Present to CPMT. Decide how to proceed

Agenda for next 3 days

• Information sharing:– “Basins meet GDs, GDs meet basins.”

• Future scenarios for basins – Let your mind run free for a few hours

• Putting GDs in the CPWF harness– “This is all very interesting. What does it mean for

the CPWF?”