Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira...
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Transcript of Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira...
![Page 1: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Limits to AdaptationOcean acidification
Congressional Briefing9 November 2009
Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University [email protected]
![Page 2: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Rain, galoshes, and limits to adaptation
To avoid getting wet, you want to bring an umbrella
To avoid climate risk, you want to reduce carbon dioxide emissions
Kasmira,2009
But to keep your feet dry, you might still need galoshes
To diminish damage from the climate change you can’t avoid, you want to improve adaptive resilience
Just wearing galoshes is not enough
emissions reduction
adaptation
![Page 3: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Ischia, Italy
Map created by Norman Einstein
![Page 4: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
CO2 dissolving shells and skeletonsHall-Spencer / BBC
High CO2 = Invasive grasses
Low CO2
= Native shellfish
Thanks, Jason Hall-Spencer
![Page 5: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Chemistry ofocean acidification
![Page 6: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO32-
CO O
OCa Ca2+ (dissolved)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-
![Page 7: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-
![Page 8: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-
![Page 9: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO O
OCa CaCO3 (solid)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-
![Page 10: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Water, dissolved carbon, and shells and skeletons
CaCO3 (solid)C
O O
OCa
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-
![Page 11: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Addition of CO2
CaCO3 (solid)C
O O
OCa
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-
CO O CO2
![Page 12: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Formation of carbonic acid
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-HH
CO O
OH2CO3
CaCO3 (solid)
![Page 13: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Increasing ocean acidity
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
![Page 14: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Increasing ocean acidity
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
![Page 15: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Increasing ocean acidity
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
![Page 16: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Increasing ocean acidity
CaCO3 (solid)C
O O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
H H+
![Page 17: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OCO3
2-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
![Page 18: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
H
Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OHCO3
-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
CaCO3 (solid)
![Page 19: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
H
Dissolving shells and skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OHCO3
-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
![Page 20: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
H
Dissolving shells and skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OHCO3
-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
![Page 21: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
H
Dissolving shells and skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
OHCO3
-H
CO O
OHCO3
-
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
![Page 22: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Lizard Island
ExpeditionSeptember
2008
![Page 24: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
We measured of coral skeletal growth rates 40% lower than in the late 1970’s
![Page 25: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Distribution of corals andocean acidification
![Page 26: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragonite
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
Cao and Caldeira, 2008
![Page 27: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
![Page 28: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
![Page 29: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
![Page 30: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
![Page 31: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
![Page 32: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
![Page 33: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Rain, galoshes, and limits to adaptation
Kasmira,2009
emissions reduction
adaptation
Adaptation is important, but it is not a substitute for emissions reduction
We need an umbrellaand galoshes
![Page 34: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Main points
• Few and limited options for adaptation to acidification– Adaptive capacity of ecosystems can be increased by
reducing other stresses on our ocean environment (overfishing, land-based pollution, habitat loss, etc)
– Management and engineering solutions appear to be feasible only in a few isolated cases
To protect our coastal and ocean environments,
we need to greatly reduce our CO2 emissions soon
![Page 35: Limits to Adaptation Ocean acidification Congressional Briefing 9 November 2009 Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution & Stanford University kcaldeira@carnegie.stanford.edu.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022081602/5514f17f550346b0478b5ea1/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)