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Lila Valencia, Miguel Flores, & Nazrul Hoque University of Texas at San Antonio Applied Demography Conference January 2012

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Texas is characterized by large and rapid growth. One of the fastest growing states in the nation. Second in population only to California. Background 2000 Population* 2010 Population* Numerical Change 2000-2010 Percent Change 2000-2010 United States 281,421,906308,745,53827,323,6329.7% Texas 20,851,82025,145,5614,293,74120.6% California 33,871,64837,253,9563,382,30810.0% Florida 15,982,37818,801,3102,818,93217.6% Georgia 8,186,4539,687,6531,501,20018.3% North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,17018.5% Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,38524.6% Population values are decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010. 15.7% of numerical change in U.S. Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2000 and 2010 Apportionment Data.

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Texas has had a net surplus of migrants dating back to 1960. In the last decade, net migration contributed a little less than half to the Texas total population growth. Background Percent Change Due to Year*Population Numerical Change Natural Increase Net Migration Percent Change Natural Increase Net Migration 19507,711,194-- 19609,579,6771,868,4831,754,652113,83124.293.916.09 197011,196,7301,617,0531,402,683214,37016.986.7413.26 198014,229,1913,032,4611,260,7941,771,66727.141.5858.42 199016,986,5102,757,3191,815,670941,64919.965.8534.15 200020,851,028 3,865,310 1,919,2811,946,02922.849.6550.35 200924,782,302 3,930,4842,124,1241,781,78518.854.0445.33 *All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2011 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. Note: Residual values are not presented in this table. Source: Derived from U.S. Census Bureau Estimates for dates indicated by the Texas State Data Center.

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Common data sources used in estimating domestic migration include the decennial census, ACS, CPS, SIPP, and IRS. Hughes et al. (2007) and officials at the North Dakota State Data Center have used tax returns and exemptions as a proxy for net population flows. The U.S. Census Bureau incorporates IRS data in their estimates of net internal migration. Literature Review

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ACS IRS Comparison

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Take two distinct approaches to explore who is moving to Texas and how these characteristics may impact the Texas economy Exploring economic impact using aggregate adjusted gross income generated from net gains of migrants. Estimating demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of domestic migrants to Texas Objectives

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U.S. Census Bureau American Community Survey, Single-Year estimates U.S. Internal Revenue Service State-to-State Migration Data based on individual income tax returns Data Sources

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Methods ACS 1-Year Estimates characteristics of domestic migrants to Texas Sex Age group (Under 18, 18-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, 65+) Race/Ethnicity (NH White, NH Black, NH Asian, NH Other, Hispanic) Educational attainment (