Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II...
-
Upload
garry-webster -
Category
Documents
-
view
213 -
download
0
Transcript of Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II...
![Page 1: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Light Duty Vehicles and CO2The Policy Background
Malcolm FergussonSenior Fellow, IEEP
ECCP II ConferenceCO2 and Cars Working Group
24 October 2005
![Page 2: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A Brief History
• 1990s: Fuel economy not improving
• 1993: EU ratifies Framework Convention on Climate Change
• 1995: Commission publishes passenger car CO2 strategy• target 120g/km by 2005 (or 2010 at latest)
• 1997: Carmakers threatened with legislation
• 1998/9: Voluntary Agreements with manufacturers’ associations
• 2000: Monitoring Mechanism (1753/2000) established
• 2001: CO2 Labelling required (1999/94)
• 2005/6: Review of Passenger Car CO2 Strategy
![Page 3: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
The ‘CO2 Agreement’ with Carmakers
• Community target was 120g/km by 2005/2010• Commission negotiated with Associations• Agreement reached on 140g/km
• ACEA by 2008• JAMA and KAMA by 2009• Interim targets 2003/4
• Monitoring Mechanism (1753/2000) established• Annual joint reports and Communication
• Meeting Community target by 2012?• Associations have reported• Now subject to Impact Assessment
![Page 4: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Progress to Date
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011
Sales year
Sales
-weig
hted
gCO
2/km
ACEA
J AMA
KAMA
ACEAtargetJ AMA/KAMAtargetEUtargetLinear (ACEA)
Linear (J AMA)
Linear (KAMA)
![Page 5: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Next Steps with the Agreement
• 120g/km targets now under consideration• ACEA maintains it cannot be done by technology alone - high cost• Alternative of an ‘integrated approach’
• Research for Commission to contribute to Impact Assessment to evaluate:1. Further technical measures for cars2. LPG and CNG3. Taxation4. Labelling5. Eco-driving6. Air conditioning systems7. Vehicle and engine resistance8. Public procurement9. Promoting biofuels10.Extending the system to light goods vehicles
![Page 6: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Further Analysis for 120g/km
• Various technical reports produced• Ricardo Carbon to hydrogen roadmaps 2003• Arthur D Little cost analysis 2003• German Aerospace Centre (DLR) 2004• JRC/CONCAWE/EUCAR Tank to wheel report 2003
• Economic and business impact assessment • For European Commission• By IEEP/TNO/CAIR• Used previous analyses on meeting 120g/km
• Further work now ongoing• Integrated Approach in CARS21 WG• Impact Assessment studies • ECCP II LDVs and CO2
![Page 7: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
What type of Instrument?
• Options reviewed by IEEP/TNO/CAIR • A single limit for all new cars not practical
• Very costly or impossible for a few (excluded from market)
• No effect on the majority
• A number of possible target types• Single emission target, eg 120g/km• Target linked to ‘utility’ of vehicles• Percentage reduction target, eg a 35% reduction for
each manufacturer
• A number of possible instrument types• Fixed emission limit value • A pure bubble concept• An averaging, banking and trading (ABT) scheme
![Page 8: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Conclusions of IEEP/TNO/CAIR Study
• Costs to manufacturers €550 – 1000 per car• Of moving from 140g/km to 120g/km• Based on cautious cost assumptions• Significantly less than ADL study
• Assumes no pass-through to consumer
• Flexibility of instrument used is important• Flexibility reduces costs and avoids exclusions• Affects impact on different manufacturers• Also affects ‘fairness’ of measure
• Reduced fuel cost pays for much or all additional vehicle cost• Allows cost pass-through to consumers• Payback improves as oil price rises
![Page 9: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Impact of Fuel Price on Consumer Cost
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60
Petrol price [Euro/l]
Net
cos
ts to
con
sum
er [E
uro]
(NP
V: I
R =
5%
)
2008
each car - uniform target
each car - all other targets
per manufacturer - all targets
all cars (trading) - all targets
Source: IEEP/TNO/CAIR
Data: Polk Marketing Systems
![Page 10: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
CARS 21 – a ‘Sherpa’s View’
• High Level Group addressing auto regulation
• Should conclude in November/December
• Likely to endorse Integrated Approach
• Advocate considering all policy measures in principle
• … but apply ‘policy filters’
• Quantifiable• Bankable• Attributable• Implementable• Monitorable
![Page 11: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
TNO/IEEP/LAT Analysis
• Research to contribute to Impact Assessment
• Seeking input from Stakeholders• For all 10 measures
• On costs and CO2 reduction potential
• IA2
• An Integrated Approach• … to Impact Assessment
• Work ongoing as part of broader process
![Page 12: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Questions Arising
• What sort of target/instrument for 2012 for cars?
• Should light goods vehicles be included?
• What additional measures should be included?
• What other stakeholders?• Oil industry?• Member States?• Others?
• How to monitor progress under IA?
![Page 13: Light Duty Vehicles and CO 2 The Policy Background Malcolm Fergusson Senior Fellow, IEEP ECCP II Conference CO 2 and Cars Working Group 24 October 2005.](https://reader035.fdocuments.in/reader035/viewer/2022072013/56649e585503460f94b50df1/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Light Duty Vehicles and CO2The Policy Background
Malcolm FergussonSenior Fellow, IEEP
ECCP II ConferenceCO2 and Cars Working Group
24 October 2005