Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)
description
Transcript of Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)
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Life-Cycle ofTropical Storm Erin (2007)
Thomas J. Galarneau, Jr., and Lance F. Bosart
University at Albany, State University of New York
Albany, NY
*with contributions from Roger Edwards, SPC
9th Annual Northeast Regional Operational Workshop
8 November 2007
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Motivation
• Widespread post-landfall rainfall and wind associated with Tropical Storm (TS) Erin during 16–23 August 2007
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Goals
• Overview large-scale environment
• Examine aspects of TS Erin life-cycle in more detail:– Incipient development to landfall along TX coast– Widespread TX rains/reintensification over OK– “PRE” over WI– KY rains and VA/NC MCS
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Goals
• Overview large-scale environment
• Examine aspects of TS Erin life-cycle in more detail:– Incipient development to landfall along TX coast– Widespread TX rains/reintensification over OK– “PRE” over WI– KY rains and VA/NC MCS
![Page 5: Life-Cycle of Tropical Storm Erin (2007)](https://reader030.fdocuments.in/reader030/viewer/2022012922/56814516550346895db1d90b/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Data Sources
• 2.5 NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis from ESRL
• 1.0 NCEP–GFS final analysis from NCAR
• Soundings from University of Wyoming
• Standard surface data from UAlbany
• OK Mesonet data from OK Climo Survey
• Radar imagery from NCAR and SPC
• Precipitation analyses from NPVU
• Trajectories from NOAA HYSPLIT model
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250 hPa (dam) mean and anomaly and vector wind (standard barbs) mean9–23 August 2007
2.5 NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis
13
23
2119
17
15
Erin track
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250 hPa (dam) mean and anomaly and vector wind (standard barbs) mean9–23 August 2007
2.5 NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis
13
23
2119
17
15landfall06Z/16
reintensification00–06Z/19
PRE00–12Z/19
MCS21Z/21–06Z/22
intense rains06Z/21–18Z/21
intense rains12Z/16–18Z/18
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350
355
360
365
370
00Z/13 00Z/14 00Z/15 00Z/16 00Z/17 00Z/18 00Z/19 00Z/20 00Z/21 00Z/22 00Z/23
Time/Date (UTC)
DT Theta (K)
5
10
15
20
25
850-DT Shear (m/s) and CI (K)
DT THETA 850-DT SHEAR CI
landfall
reintensificationover Oklahoma, and
Wisconsin PRE
North Carolina/VirginiaMCSKentucky rains
1.0 GFS Final Analyses
Azimuth average of DT (K), 850 hPa–DT wind shear (m s1), and CI (K)
DT
(
K)
850–
DT
sh
ear
(m s
1)
and
CI
(K)
Time/Date (UTC)
€
CI =θ(@DT) −θe (@850hPa)
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Incipient development–landfall0000 UTC 8–1200 UTC 16 Aug 2007
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DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
1200 UTC 7 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
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1200 UTC 8 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 9 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 10 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
xx x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 11 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 12 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 13 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 14 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 15 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
xx x
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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1200 UTC 16 August 2007
1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
xxx
L=“Erin”X=DT disturbance
=DT trough
L
DT (K), 850–DT shear (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
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TX rains andOK reintensification
0000 UTC 17–0000 UTC 20 Aug 2007
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DT (K) and vector wind (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
1200 UTC 17 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
Erin
Source: NPVU
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DT (K) and vector wind (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
1200 UTC 18 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
Erin
Source: NPVU
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DT (K) and vector wind (knots), and 925–850 hPa (10-4 s-1)
1200 UTC 19 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
Erin
Source: NPVU
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Source: NCAR image archive
12Z/16
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Source: NCAR image archive
18Z/16
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Source: NCAR image archive
00Z/17
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Source: NCAR image archive
00Z/17
FWD
DRT
1000 J kg-1
200 J kg-1
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Source: NCAR image archive
06Z/17
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Source: NCAR image archive
12Z/17
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Source: NCAR image archive
18Z/17
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Source: NCAR image archive
00Z/18
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Source: NCAR image archive
00Z/18
FWD
MAF
1800 J kg-1
130 J kg-1
00Z/18
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Source: NCAR image archive
06Z/18
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Source: NCAR image archive
12Z/18
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Source: NCAR image archive
18Z/18
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Source: NCAR image archive
00Z/19
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Source: NCAR image archive
00Z/19
FWD
1300 J kg-1
OUN
1800 J kg-1
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Source: NCAR image archive
06Z/19
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Source: NCAR image archive
12Z/19
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€
∇Surface and12Z/19
L
Erin
barocliniczone
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X
(105 s1), (K), and vector wind (knots)
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Source: Roger Edwards, NOAA/NWS/SPC
0400–1300 UTC 19 August 2007
BREF and OK Mesonet Observations
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Source: Roger Edwards,NOAA/NWS/SPC
0500–1300Z/19
LL
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Wisconsin “PRE”0000–1200 UTC 19 August
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Erin
PRE
06Z/19
Source: NCAR image archive
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Erin
PREbarocliniczone
L
€
∇Surface and06Z/19
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Source: NPVU
24 h Total Precipitation (in.) ending 12Z/19
Erin
PRE
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Source: NPVU
24 h Total Precipitation (in.) ending 12Z/19
Erin
PRE
OAX12Z/19
SGF00Z/19
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700 (dam), 1000–500 , 850–500 wind (knots), and Precipitable Water (mm)
1200 UTC 16 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
L
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700 (dam), 1000–500 , 850–500 wind (knots), and Precipitable Water (mm)
1200 UTC 17 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
L
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700 (dam), 1000–500 , 850–500 wind (knots), and Precipitable Water (mm)
1200 UTC 18 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
L
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700 (dam), 1000–500 , 850–500 wind (knots), and Precipitable Water (mm)
1200 UTC 19 August 2007 1.0 NCEP–GFS Analyses
L
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Summary
• Pre-landfall key points:– Disturbance possibly originated from convection
over South American continent at 00Z/8– Upper-level disturbance on DT inhibited
intensification of pre-TS Erin prior to 15 August– Erin became minimal TS on 15 August just prior
to landfall (at 06Z/16)
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Summary
• Erin moved around periphery of continental anticyclone during 16–23 August
• Post-landfall key points:– Produced 4–8” rains over TX 12Z/16–00Z/19– Reintensified to TS strength over OK 00–12Z/19– Contributed tropical moisture to WI PRE 00–12Z/19– Generated 2–4” rains over KY 12–18Z/21– Triggered severe MCS over VA/NC 18Z/21–00Z/22
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Concluding Remarks
• Link between continental MCVs and TS ErinTS Erin at 12Z/19 Mature MCV at 18Z/11 June 2003
(105 s1), (K), vector wind (knots)
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Concluding Remarks
• Possible physical mechanism for reintensification
• Intense cyclonic vorticity maxima develop beneath convective towers.• These cyclonic vorticity maxima wrap into “main” cyclonic circulation.(e.g., Montgomery and Enagonio (1998); Hendricks et al. (2004); Conzemius et al. (2007)
= cyclonic vorticity maxima
09Z/19 12Z/19