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Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences Balancing Societys...
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Transcript of Lian Pin Koh, PhD Ecosystem Management Group Department of Environmental Sciences Balancing Societys...
Lian Pin Koh, PhDEcosystem Management GroupDepartment of Environmental Sciences
Balancing Society’s PrioritiesReconciling agricultural expansion, forest protection and
carbon conservation in Indonesia
More mouths to feed...
Higher quality food...
(Beef makes you a stronger man)
More energy...
Conserve biodiversity...
Cap GHG emiss ions. . .
Sustain development and livelihoods...
Food
Development Biodiversity
Energy
Emissions
Food or fuel?
Biodiversity or food?
Food DevelopmentBiodiversityEnergy Emissions
Trade-off n. a situation that involves losing one quality or aspect of something in return for gaining another
quality or aspect. It implies a decision to be made with full comprehension of the upside and downside of any choice.
Develop science-based decision-support tools to help decision makers evaluate
trade-offs of pursuing alternative development options.
Where & How?
Production target
Business-As-Usual:Target most productive areas for
oil palm
Forest preservation:Target degraded areas & avoid forests
Food production:Avoid areas suitable for food
cultivation
Carbon conservation:Avoid lands rich in carbon
Hybrid strategy:Consider all priorities
Development pathways (scenarios)
Current production
Outcome variables…
Area required for oil palm Forests & biodiversity
Food production capacity Carbon stocks
Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA)Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA)
Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
GIS data layers:
AB Dest
vailable
ata
Suitability for rice (FAO-IIASA)Suitability for oil palm (FAO-IIASA)
Overall land-use land-cover (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
Biomass carbon (Ruesch & Gibbs) Peat soil carbon (WRI, MoF, Sekala)
GIS data layers:New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):
New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):
Each polygon assigned conversion probabilities… BAU: proportional to relative oil-palm yield
Food production: inversely proportional to rice yield
Forest preservation: inv. proportional to habitat quality
Carbon conservation: inv. proportional to C-stock
Hybrid scenario: BAU*Food*Forest*Carbon
New GIS layer of intersected polygons (n>500,000):
Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com
Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com
http://dl.dropbox.com/u/939465/ScenarioAnalysis_PNAS.swf
Priority areas for oil palm development under Hybrid scenario
Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com
Download from: www.lianpinkoh.com
Financial returns
Livelihoods
Future Add-ons
… and others
ConclusionEvery single-priority scenario
produced tradeoffs in other priorities
ConclusionEvery single-priority scenario
produced tradeoffs in other prioritiesTradeoffs could be minimized
through implementation of properly planned and spatially explicit development strategy
Thank you for your attention!(More information: www.lianpinkoh.com)