Climate Science

for Climate Services:

Developing capacity

within

CORDEX-Africa

Cordex – Africa Analysis

Ethos:

A – Analysis; developing methods and tools to analyse atmospheric

processes over Africa and how these may change into the future

F – Foci; addressing key meteorological and impacts knowledge gaps

R – Regional messages; presenting information for key regions of the

continent

I – Integrated approach; bringing together climate and vulnerability-

impact-adaptation scientists to identify and address key climate

vulnerabilities

C – Capacity development; long-term collaboration between African

scientists and key global institutions for career development

A – Application and Adaptation; bridging the science-society divide

through transforming climate data into actionable information

Cordex - Africa Analysis

April 2010 March 2011 July 2011 November 2011 February 2012

Putting the ‘CO’ in CORDEX - Series of 4(5) Workshops

Cape Town Planning

•Discussed ERA-Interim runs •Developed metrics •Set regions •Discussed observation data •Discussed goals for first workshop •Discussed data dissemination

April 2010 July 2011 November 2011 February 2012

Putting the ‘CO’ in CORDEX - Series of 4(5) Workshops

Cape Town Planning

Trieste, Italy Conference 2 Day workshop

Cordex Conference & Workshop (Fri & Sat) • Formed regional groupings

•Adjusted regions •Reset metrics and variables

•Training in R •Discussed VIA scientists involvement

•Set goals for next meeting (July 2011)

•Discussed ERA-Interim runs •Developed metrics •Set regions •Discussed observation data •Discussed goals for first workshop •Discussed data dissemination

March 2011

Cordex - Africa Analysis

Putting the ‘CO’ in CORDEX - Series of 4(5) Workshops

April 2010 March 2011 November 2011 February 2012

Cape Town Planning

Trieste, Italy Conference 2 Day workshop

Cordex Conference & Workshop (Fri & Sat) • Formed regional groupings

•Adjusted regions •Reset metrics and variables

•Training in R •Discussed VIA scientists involvement

•Set goals for next meeting (July 2011)

Cape Town Group Leaders Analysis and planning

July 2011

Leaders workshop •Revisited regions

•Developed series of analyses •Observation data

•Continued training •Discussed VIA aspects

•Data -> Action

Cordex - Africa Analysis

Putting the ‘CO’ in CORDEX - Series of 4(5) Workshops

Cape Town Data Analysis VIA scientists

April 2010 March 2011 November 2011 February 2012

Cape Town Planning

Trieste, Italy Conference 2 Day workshop

Cape Town Group Leaders Analysis and planning

July 2011

Leaders workshop •Revisited regions

•Developed series of analyses •Observation data

•Continued training •Discussed VIA aspects

•Data -> Action

Atmospheric and VIA scientists (3 streams) •Continued atmospheric analysis and training

•VIA scientists •Develop questions from VIA perspective

•Integrate VIA and atmos scientists •Set preliminary paper content

Cordex - Africa Analysis

Putting the ‘CO’ in CORDEX - Series of 4(5) Workshops

Cape Town Data Analysis VIA scientists

Trieste Writeshop

April 2010 March 2011 November 2011

Cape Town Planning

Trieste, Italy Conference 2 Day workshop

Cape Town Group Leaders Analysis and planning

July 2011 February 2012

Paper writing workshop 5 days •Not analysis

•Each day a section •Teaching how to write a paper

•Paper outline •Introduction

• Conclusions •Results

•Workplan

IPCC AR5 Deadline - 31 July (submitted) 1. An Assessment of CORDEX Regional Climate Models over West Africa 2. Diurnal cycle and intra-seasonal variability of rainfall over West Africa using CORDEX Models 3. Assessing the Performance of CORDEX RCMs in simulating the East African rainfall 4. Extreme events over southern Africa in CORDEX models 5. Evaluating southern Africa precipitation patterns simulated by Regional Climate Models 6. A diagnostic evaluation of CORDEX models over southern Africa

Cordex - Africa Analysis

Cordex Africa - leading achievement - analysis 9 Papers Klutse, N. A. B., Sylla, M. B.,

Diallo, I., Sarr, A., Dosio, A.,

Diedhiou, A.,

Kamga, A., Lamptey, B., Ali, A.,

Gbobanyini E., Owusu, K.,

Lennard, C., Hewitson, B.,Grigory

Nikulin, G., Panitz, HJ, & Büchner,

M. (2015). Daily characteristics of

West African summer monsoon

precipitation in CORDEX

simulations. Theoretical and

Applied Climatology, 1-18.

Shongwe, M. E., Lennard, C.,

Liebmann, B., Kalognomou, E. A.,

Ntsangwane, L., & Pinto, I. (2014).

An evaluation of CORDEX

regional climate models in

simulating precipitation over

Southern Africa. Atmospheric

Science Letters.

Pinto, I., C. Lennard, M.

Tadross, B. Hewitson, A.

Dosio, G. Nikulin, H-J Panitz,

M. Shongwe (In Review).

Simulated changes in

extreme precipitation over

southern Africa from

CORDEX models, Climatic

Change

Teleconnection responses in multi-GCM driven CORDEX

RCMs over Eastern Africa Hussen Seid Endris, Christopher Lennard, Bruce Hewitson, Alessandro Dosio, Grigory Nikulin, Hans-Jürgen Panitz

Cordex Africa

Mixing climate and VIA communities....it’s complicated!

April 2010 March 2011 November 2011 July 2011 February 2012

Health, media and climate specialists Many lessons learned by all delegates We speak different languages! How do we communicate uncertainty...... it’s uncertain... Communication of our message is critical - how, to whom, use an expert! Organizers learned many lessons

Burkina Faso: 28-30 May 2012

Cordex Africa

Mixing climate and VIA communities....it’s complicated!

March 2011 November 2011 July 2011 February 2012

DRM, water, ecology, energy, infrastr, climate Place-based not sector-based -> co-discovery Climate and non-climate stressors The nature of climate information - how should it be used Even more lessons learned by organizers (including frustration...@#$%* funders!)

February 2013

Dar Es Salaam: Climate information for decision making in peri-urban areas

Cordex E. Asia and VAMOS 2013

Cordex Africa Some of the lessons we have learned...

1. We can downscale anything AND sell the result authoritatively

2. Continually assess your assumptions about what you think you know:

scientific capacity, cross sectoral collaboration, your knowledge base...

3. Bring in stakeholder needs and priorities early on. This requires early

engagement with a representative spectrum of regional stakeholders

4. The importance of defining the question: design the questions that the

analysis intends to answer, in very specific terms, and articulate the value that

is achieved and for who it is achieved in answering the question. Limit this to a

only 3-5 questions in order to force prioritisation

5. Articulate questions in the appropriate time and space scales

6. Understand concepts before you attack the data....making pretty graphs

for no reason is a waste of time

7. Need to set timelines and articulate milestones

8. Design the process with long term continuity in mind

Future CORDEX-Africa activities…

Workshop 2 (Addis Ababa – October 2015)

This goal of this workshop is an initial analysis of CORDEX-Africa data based on the questions

elucidated in the first workshop. Full teams, including young scientists, will be invited to a central

location for this workshop and there will be a strong capacity development focus.

1. Refinement of the questions identified at Workshop 1

2. Initial analysis of the climate data to address questions identified in Workshop 1

3. Engagement of stakeholders (user-informed science)

4. Training on tools that are used for data analysis if appropriate (Grads, R,

ferret, etc)

5. Explicit training of young scientists in both climate analysis methods and tools

Workshop 3 (Cape Town – February 2016)

It is envisaged this workshop will be decentralized in a location specific to each region. The focus

of the workshop is a continuation of core climate analysis from the previous workshop and

development of of young scientists.

1. Revisit research questions

2. Core analysis of climate data

3. Continued training in climate analysis techniques and tools

Workshop 4 (Funding to still be secured – mid-2016)

This is a final data analysis workshop where results from the two previous workshops are

consolidated and any emergent questions from previous workshops will be addressed. Develop a

set of analysis products that can be used in the final workshop for writing of papers.

1. Final refinement of research questions and implementation of new methodologies if necessary

2. Final data analysis

3. Selection and production of figures for papers

4. Continued training in climate analysis techniques and tools

Workshop 5 (Funding to still be secured – end-2016)

This workshop would be a writing workshop. This workshop would also have a

training/development aspect for members of groups who have not authored a journal paper. It is

envisaged this will be a centralized meeting.

1. Developing the storyline and structure of the papers

2. Selection of journals targeted

3. Develop Introduction and Conclusion sections

4. Develop a roadmap for final draft and publication procedure

Future CORDEX-Africa activities…

CORDEX-Africa intersects with:

1. FCFA projects

• Southern Africa - FRACTAL

• East Africa – Umfulo – Water resource in Zambia, DRC, central-east

Africa

• West Africa – AMMA 2050

• Hi-crystal: Lake Victoria, understanding projections and effect on Lake

Victoria

• IMPALA – model development

2. HELIX (High-End cLimate Impacts and eXtremes)

• West Africa and East Africa focus

• What happens between 4 and 6 degrees

• Time scale to end of century

3. CR4D initiatives

• Time scales from seasonal to long-term projection

• Stakeholder engagement/informed type work

CORDEX-Africa does not operate in isolation…

4. WASSCAL and SASSCAL

5. Cross-domain interaction on CORDEX-Africa

• What has been done in some Africa domains that could be

leveraged by other domains.

• Knowledge exchange between CORDEX domains

6. CORDEX-ESD

7. Others….

CORDEX[-RCM]-Africa takes place in a complex landscape of

activities and can benefit from resources gained through proactive

synergy with complementary initiatives, if appropriately aligned.

CORDEX-Africa does not operate in isolation…

Cordex – Africa Analysis

Ethos:

A – Analysis; developing methods and tools to analyse atmospheric

processes over Africa and how these may change into the future

F – Foci; addressing key meteorological and impacts knowledge gaps

R – Regional messages; presenting information for key regions of the

continent

I – Integrated approach; bringing together climate and vulnerability-

impact-adaptation scientists to identify and address key climate

vulnerabilities

C – Capacity development; long-term collaboration between African

scientists and key global institutions for career development

A – Application and Adaptation; bridging the science-society divide

through transforming climate data into actionable information